Prices, Inflation/Deflation, Interest Rates & The Fed

Arado

Pelican
Gold Member
Stocks, Gold, Silver, Lumber all down yesterday. USD is gaining strength?

I'd like to sell before the election and buy afterwards. There is a historical pattern around the election - whether Dem or Republican wins.

There are trained professionals in volatility trying to figure out how to time the elections. Is there any particular strategy or scenario that hasn't already been partially priced in by the hedge funds?
 

Blade Runner

Kingfisher
Stocks, Gold, Silver, Lumber all down yesterday. USD is gaining strength?

I'd like to sell before the election and buy afterwards. There is a historical pattern around the election - whether Dem or Republican wins.

Yes, this ... and ultimately the longer term play is BTC and solid commodities (I say uranium, gold miners, lithium etc) as a backup on that. Some equities might have a bigger upside (I doubt compared to crypto, longer term at this point) ... but the risk is WAY too high. With crypto and commodities I feel very strongly that the risk is relatively low and the gains will be markedly asymmetric as to the risk.
 
I don't think we'll see hyperinflation.

I think we will see a total financial collapse and afterwards some blockchain cashless crypto.

All the blockchain stuff that is so readily adapted by banks and hyped up by the tribe reeks of CIA / m0ssåd.

It's even officially used now for COVID tracing.
 

Arado

Pelican
Gold Member
I don't think we'll see hyperinflation.

I think we will see a total financial collapse and afterwards some blockchain cashless crypto.

All the blockchain stuff that is so readily adapted by banks and hyped up by the tribe reeks of CIA / m0ssåd.

It's even officially used now for COVID tracing.

That's pretty broad. There are really smart folks out there arguing for hyperinflation, and some for the opposite. So if you want to make a claim in this debate need to have data points and some model/methodology to back it up.
 
That's pretty broad. There are really smart folks out there arguing for hyperinflation, and some for the opposite. So if you want to make a claim in this debate need to have data points and some model/methodology to back it up.

With the lockdown, mass bankruptcies, mass unemployment, economic domination of very few companies, a bloated stock market from stimulus money, all kinds of financial instruments nobody but the elite understands etc. there might be a big bang scenario like in 2009. Someone (spooks?) coined it "The great reset". I believe they're always drip feeding terms and scenarios upfront which they can then call conspiracy theories.

I'm starting to believe that Brexit is no coincidence in the grand scheme of things and they want to keep the UK with the GBP where Lord Røthschild still resides while everything else falls apart.

It's hard to say whether the EUR will fall first or if it'll be a result of an USD collapse but Europe was on shaky economic grounds even before COVID. Mass unemployment among young people in Spain, Greece etc. was already a thing, now there is no tourism. (about 20% of the GDP in southern countries)

It just takes one crazy financial instrument that you have never heard of for everything to fall apart at this point, probably together with some Epstein type revelations and some new stooge coming along saying: You can't trust current money or the elites. We'll implement CUCKCHAIN and make it the world currency for great justice.

Of course they could hyperinflate us into oblivion and use the same tactic as well.

 

Blade Runner

Kingfisher
I've always thought the first step was a US domestic failure of state pensions/debt/budgets that would set off a bond market problem and then lead to the "resetting" of things, to some degree. In many ways that could be healthy, but it would have several social or political issues and possibly other economic triggers. I see this happening in a couple of states by the end of 2021-22.
 
That means your COL doubles in 6 years, entirely, 12% compounded. Sounds a bit much, I agree. More like 5-6% should be it.

Jeff booth tells the story of his lake house in Canada where he charged 600/month. After 6 years he was able to charge 1200/month. Nothing in that area had changed with respect to jobs or population. Basically if your wages didn't double you became a loser since your rent doubled in price. So yes I think the math sounds right.

With respect to block chain or bitcoin. None of this is being adopted unless they can use it to enslave humanity. Bitcoin doesn't allow it. Digital currency is just another fiat currency so there's no change there. My prediction is governments will adopt bitcoin as a reserve currency similar to how they did with gold in the past but these will be small countries that have the biggest problems with currencies. First, corporations will pick up bitcoin then governments will follow. It's not enthusiastically, more like kicking and screaming as a last resort.
 
Total transparency of all transactions is pretty much enslavement if the account owner is known.

There is still all kinds of red tape to get insight into people's bank transactions that will be removed then.

The banking system is way worse than simply making your transactions transparent. They sell that info already and the government can see your transactions all day, reverse them, freeze them, steal it etc.

The reason blockchain is so hated by governments and banks is because it turned the transparency back on them. With bitcoin you know what the monetary policy is, how much bitcoin there will be in the future, how much inflation there will be, how it is spent etc. Nobody can freeze or reserve transactions. They can see transactions but there are no names attached to it. The banking system is the opposite of this. They don't tell you how much money is printed, how much there will be in the future, what the interest rates will be. It's totally opaque, centrally controlled. Adopting bitcoin is giving up control and that'll never happen for most governments. Imagine what the government would do if they couldn't print money on command like magic to fix all their problems. They'd actually have to become efficient because stealing from their citizens would be off the table.
 

EndlessGravity

Kingfisher
@Arado, I've been thinking a lot about our conversations here as I watch the data accumulate. Let me preface this by saying these are just the observations of a regular dude. I'm not an economist, big time investor, or cool cat bank guy.

For the past few months, I've been paying attention to a few dichotomies regarding inflation and deflation.

Food bank lines vs. grocery store prices vs. restaurant portions
Grocery prices are up but food bank lines are also growing. In my metro, non-profits serving food have also had their costs double and triple since March, greatly straining their budgets as they have record traffic but donations drying up. Flip-side: restaurants, the ones that are left, in my area have raised their prices and obscenely shrunk their portions. Many of them are surviving on credit cards. McDonald's doing record revenue, as would be expected during a financial crash.

Used cars vs. new cars vs. hotel prices vs. airplane fare

Used car prices are up big while new car prices are flat and hotel and airline fare are down by 20% to 25% annually.

Real estate

Up but with a 25% decline in inventory and indications in many areas of constricting inventory and down-trending prices. You can watch in lots of places as houses are starting to get re-listed because buyer financing fell through. I'm seeing this throughout my state in all areas.


What's going on?

Deflation that looks a little like inflation. Businesses are trying to squeeze whatever juice that's left and whatever they can out of whoever will buy as consumers pile into cheaper choices, going so far as to switch to outright handouts. The pain is already becoming acute and we'll probably continue in this direction for the next few years. Some prices are up, but not many while we see a lot of flat numbers or ones that cannot get above board from before the shut down.

Car price references:
 

Blade Runner

Kingfisher
Jeff booth tells the story of his lake house in Canada where he charged 600/month. After 6 years he was able to charge 1200/month. Nothing in that area had changed with respect to jobs or population. Basically if your wages didn't double you became a loser since your rent doubled in price. So yes I think the math sounds right.

I liked your post ... but this part is far too specific and particular (lake house, Canada, probably a place where you could ask more, real estate bubbles are common, etc) to be a counter to the overall COL as we had stated here. I still say 5-6%, which of course means double in 12 years or so.
 
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