Do you prefer inflation of higher education costs? Real Estate? Shares of the S&P 500?If you check each QE you'll find it was always before any asset purchases began. What this means is that the Fed's QE wasn't the driver. I get no one here cares about why or how things happen but seriously these things aren't hard to check.
Edit: the lesson you should be taking away with this and probably this thread...anyone associated with trading or the stock market is probably retarded. They are on average short-term thinkers who don't ask too many questions about the system. This is why Michael Burry thinks 2007 was something about mortgages even though that's not really true. It's also why Cathie Wood has glasses with lens which are too thick despite the technology to make them thinner existing for decades.
Source:Since 1980, college tuition and fees are up 1,200%, while the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for all items has risen by only 236%.
The Average Cost of College Over TimeBack in 1980, it cost $1,856 to attend a degree-granting public school in the U.S., and $10,227 to attend a private school after adjusting for inflation.
Do you prefer inflation of higher education costs? Real Estate? Shares of the S&P 500?
We had the fastest, most aggressive crash in all recorded history, and the S&P is up more than 30% since then, with little real economic growth, probably still honestly economic contraction in the US. We have asset inflation that is wrecking the middle class, with "medium-sized" consumer goods inflation. Jumped just according to last month's numbers.
The world is flush with fiat currency, and it's going into assets. We have asset inflation.
Since 1980, the average cost of college has risen by 1200%. This chart compares the inflation in college tuition with overall inflation.www.visualcapitalist.com
Even the super-expensive Bay Area didn't budge, despite so many high-paying Silicon Valley jobs going remote.
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Crazy how all the predictions from mid 2020 are coming true. Other than gold and silver, most assets that benefit from inflation did well - crypto and other commodities are booming. Growth stocks still doing well even though high inflation would normally lead to a higher discount rate, making future cash flows less valuable and blowing out 10 and 30 year bonds, making it harder for them to borrow in the long term. The bond market hasn't crashed yet though. Let's see what happens over the next year. It's amazing how the mainstream narrative has shifted from denying the possibility of inflation to saying it's good.
Lyn Alden sees more similarities to the 1940's in which interest rates will lag inflation significantly due to the need to inflate away the debt. Politically though I'd say the 70's are more similar, in which there's lower trust in institutions and the U.S. faces increasing geopolitical challenges.
Some guys with big followers are picking up on this.
We're screwed with either inflation or insolvency.
I would argue that the inability of the left to recognize that inflation is a problem caused by excessive spending and debt monetization is going to make things worse since they will resist reigning in government. However, OTOH I could see politicians like AOC stirring up popular anger again crypto investors and others who have benefitted from inflation.
You didn't deal with anything. The gov't created trillions of stimulus beginning in March 2020 and assets have been soaring ever since.We dealt with your stock market example.
Fair point, but the result is the same. Housing in nice places has skyrocketed, with the 2007-2009 crash now appearing as the "buy the dip" we could have capitalized on.Real estate? You should be embarrassed to post a 9 year chart on the subject
Fair point, but the result is the same. Housing in nice places has skyrocketed, with the 2007-2009 crash now appearing as the "buy the dip" we could have capitalized on.
This is my whole point -- especially coming out of the 2007-2008 crash, if you had brains, income, and investible assets during that period, you probably did really well(you specifically). If you picked FAANG stocks, you're probably rich. But, if you had one of those things missing, if you were of average/below average IQ, if you were young, or stretched thin supporting a family, then you missed out. Lots of people now stuck making mediocre hourly wages while the investor class sits back and watches their accounts grow.I made a killing leading up to and after the 2007-2008 crash. Best financial years I've ever had. That period secured my financial independence for the rest of my life.
I'm not implying he's a financial expert, the point is that high profile people are talking about inflation, making it a mainstream topic and changing the psychology of the average person. That increases money velocity and people will start buying things they anticipate they'll use over the next year rather than waiting for when they actually need it.You're sharing Peterson tweets. PETERSON TWEETS. The superficial propaganda is bad enough but this takes the cake.
Rename this thread financially illiterate and turn on CNBC.
I'm not implying he's a financial expert, the point is that high profile people are talking about inflation, making it a mainstream topic and changing the psychology of the average person. That increases money velocity and people will start buying things they anticipate they'll use over the next year rather than waiting for when they actually need it.
He displays a pretty sophisticated understanding of Bitcoin philosophy here.
Anyway, can you lay out your exact prediction of what happens over the next year with the various asset classes and Fed moves? George Gammon often says that the inflationists and deflationists both understand how messed up things are, just that the inflationists think that the system will change by necessity due to political realities that make mass debt defaults unacceptable.
Ok, @EndlessGravity , what do you see over the next 4-12 years? I know predictions are hard, so I appreciate your input and won't be crazy in my criticism should we return to it. I've done quite well and am in a good position, but I think the system is fragile, and I think you also deny many clear facts at hand, and conclusions as a result. It is true that one of this matters in the sense that if you don't have your money or your positions supporting a particular thesis, it's just random internet banter or doomsaying, yes.