Thanks for the reply. What I've been trying to do everywhere I go is to convince people of the synthesis of the inflation leading to disinflation, then deflationary pressures finally take over (as is your position), and the spiral comes from the insolvencies. A bit of everything sounds pretty realistic. When is your best guess for the shortage that creates the really bad combo everyone is awaiting? It sounds like you are pretty darn bearish on this system. I'm saying a market crisis occurs in mid to late 2022, and if not, between 2023-24.You're asking a crazy broad question at what is one of the most uncertain points in the entirety of human history. If there's a certain area you're thinking of, let me know. I don't like to give broad advice...however, I should be mercilessly held to whatever I say. Life will hold me to it anyway and with much less care. Your criticism, when intelligent, is the most valuable thing you can give.
That said, the system is insolvent and hobbling along but in a broken away. It's amazing the eurodollar DIDN'T implode in 2020 and speaks to how ingrained this system is. However, China isn't buying our BS anymore, which is why they aren't just NOT saving Evergrande, they're actually DOING the collapsing of their own real estate market (this should clue you in to what they think about "inflation"). Without China's growth, the worldwide demand for commodities will significantly fall. Secondary to that, the US consumer, the one who buys the world's junk, is changing his outlook on his spending, debt, traveling, etc. Many Americans don't have the money to pay their mortgages anymore (let's call it 10% of total), let alone rent (35% of total, with mortgages 1/3 of Americans) or student loans (99%). Few businesses are profitable any longer (and they can't pay their office rent either). Furthermore the banks don't trust each other to lend overnight.
Given all this, when the next dollar shortages comes it will be ugly (and deflation in the open). There are only a few solutions.
You saw 1) in 2020. My money next time is on a bit of everything. Best bet? You should be selling everything you bought at the bottom of the last crash to the suckers buying things at high prices (I suspect @Arado is a seller himself, which is why he likes the inflation narrative). Otherwise, buy a house that butts up to a very big preserve, stop buying useless crap, gain as many hard skills as you can, and pray. The world of careers and make-work is probably drawing to a close. Either we see a historic supernova of defaults or we slide into third world status. However, there's always plenty of time still left for more shenanigans by the government.
- Shut the world in their houses
- A new system
- Or a combination of each of these.
I guess the best next prediction about which of the non-war steps that are taken will be more clear by Q1-Q2 next year.