Not quite, his point is that Japan's stock market has failed to regain previous highs, correlated with the massive deflation Japan has had for decades. In contrast, the market is NOT pricing in a deflationary outcome in the U.S. similar to what Japan had. These valuations are only possible when investors flood into stocks because they expect inflation in the future. Gromen is a full-on dollar will die, buy gold/BTC inflationist.I think I am following his language (more his idea) in the final tweet but it is strangely (or incorrectly) ordered/worded.
Surprised, fact, warning, likely ... those are all opaque in their construction, technically. I believe he is saying, "I am surprised that people don't see that the US is headed right where Japan has already gone." Correct?
UST market is huge and it's acted as a pristine asset for reserves and various types of collateral. The question is whether foreigners can absorb additional treasury offerings on top of the natural growth in treasury demand due to a growing world economy. My point is likely not, if we are looking at 3-4 trillion dollar stimulus packages every year for the foreseeable future. That will all have to be bought with printed money. We'll find out soon enough when the next package passes.Totally meant to reply to your last post and it slipped my mind. You're correct that the Fed is providing material support. However, as your chart shows, the market for UST is huge. They only represent a small portion. Synder is probably right if only because you can watch rates drop...then the Fed says they're lowering rates. Then they try to take credit for it. I have yet to see them materially affect anything they claim to impact.
Those tweets by Groman are straight fire. I hadn't considered the one about the Nikkei, instead having thought we'd one day sink lower the way they did. However, that's a good point.
The inflationists can still be proven wrong if the Fed steps back, but the larger the debt bubble grows the more painful the necessary medicine of deflationary bust will be. It is more likely instead that they will print away the debt (via debt forgiveness, 'reset', etc) to avoid the short term pain.