Prices, Inflation/Deflation, Interest Rates & The Fed

C-Note

Hummingbird
Other Christian
Gold Member
I thought this was an interesting video. I don't know enough about the subject to be able to tell if its credible or not. It's about 13 minutes long. In summary, he is reporting that cars in the US, both new and used, are overpriced right now and that there was a glut of car buying over the past two years that is now resulting in massive repossessions.

 

budoslavic

Eagle
Orthodox
Gold Member


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Kingfisher
Catholic
Gold Member

BURNΞR

Ostrich
Agnostic
Look at how desperately they are condoning the recession LOL.

View attachment 46272
I tried reading the article with an open mind and it basically said that young people have an opportunity to buy into stocks and asset at a cheap discount...but how? They don't have much disposable income with most of their money going to rent, gas, food and student loan payments.
 

C-Note

Hummingbird
Other Christian
Gold Member
Elon Musk is saying, based on what he's seeing in the commodities markets that his companies participate in to buy their raw materials, that the recession will be shallow and last about 18 months. Unfortunately, this article doesn't have his full remarks as I'd be interested in knowing more of his reasoning behind that statement.

 

COtrailrider

Robin
Gnostic or New Age
Elon Musk is saying, based on what he's seeing in the commodities markets that his companies participate in to buy their raw materials, that the recession will be shallow and last about 18 months. Unfortunately, this article doesn't have his full remarks as I'd be interested in knowing more of his reasoning behind that statement.

Musk says a lot of things - I ignore most of it.
 

presidentcarter

Ostrich
Protestant
Gold Member
That’s true only for PhDs. The financial world is obsessed with credentialism and generally they won’t even talk to you without an Ivy League degree.
Yeah most 'bulge bracket' banks only want to talk to you if you went to Ivy League. Very elitist club. Hedge funds and private equity seem similar though maybe a bit less so. Now, outside of those Wall Street banks, many regionals do employ state schools grads and are much less concerned about 'pedigree'. I'm not sure what Max is talking about other than maybe the trading desk roles.
 
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paternos

Woodpecker
Catholic
I feel writing a little piece on the state of the economy.

Joe Biden has been proudly sharing that gas prices are down, evil companies will be taxed and everyone is working.





But is it that great?
  • Less people are working
  • And the hours worked per week go down
And is it useful what the workers do?
  • We can safely say, less and less. The economy which is now largely a service economy versus a farming, mining and manufacturing economy as in the peak period of the country.
  • Bureaucracy has been expanding greatly skimming the work.
  • public_welfare_time_updated.png
What Biden is saying is that he will tax companies heavier, in reality that means even more bureaucracy. Less production and more people on welfare and companies shifting costs to customers.

One mistake they make is missing the recession, recession is essentially a way to move capital and labour to more productive enterprises. The current state is "protecting" every company and citizen. Hence everyone is "working" if they are productive is. questionable. Anyhow the state has been pushing non productive sources of energy like wind and solar. This creates less energy per employee vs nuclear or coal.

A free market economy is to let by free allocation money and labour find the most productive industries. (there you will make the most money) Today the free market is dead, which we see on the stock market. Everyone is looking at the state policies and the federal reserve. These are the main guiders of the stock prices.

Essentially the free market died in the last 2008 crisis, when the tax payers "saved" all unreliable / bad companies. But the decline physical production has been going on since the beginning of the 1980s.

The risk is not a financial crisis or banking crisis. (the government will step in) But a systemic cris. We will see our money get less valuable, we will be able to buy less for our money globallly. And whatever biden says on the oil prices, they are sharply up since before covid, and that's for most commodities.

I believe the risk is systemic, a slow descent of the production power of the nation. Whatever they say on the new world order. There is nothing new, it's already there.

With the government controlling the majority of the economy. Money effectively is a credit system already . They print the dollar credit and take them back when you are a bad boy like Alex Jones needing to pay $40M.

It's a poisonous cocktail, more bureaucracy, more tax on people, more tax on companies, less production, lies about the state of the country.
 

Max Roscoe

Ostrich
Orthodox Inquirer
Yeah most 'bulge bracket' banks only want to talk to you if you went to Ivy League. Very elitist club. Hedge funds and private equity seem similar though maybe a bit less so. Now, outside of those Wall Street banks, many regionals do employ state schools grads and are much less concerned about 'pedigree'. I'm not sure what Max is talking about other than maybe the trading desk roles.
The article was written by one of the "finance / MBA / Big Short / Goldman Sachs" types.
They are of course enjoying their own outsized control over our society, but the author's point was that people in that "big money" / Wall Street community laugh at Economics PhDs--the traders manipulate the markets and know it is rigged, while the Econ PhDs believe there is some logic or economic rules at play and attempt to explain it with academic theories and are seen as complete shills by the Wall Street Gordon Gecko / Donald Trump / daytrader types. The economist' job is even more faker than the traders.

Basically, there might be an Econ PhD or two employed at Goldman Sachs but he is the laughing stock of the company.
 

cosine

Woodpecker
CPI "calmed" to 8.5% increase, mostly due to oil prices finally cooling off. Food is still rising.

The CPI numbers are still a complete obfuscation of the economy, and 8% inflation will destroy the well-being of people who aren't on top of the game of capitalism. Unless we see a crash in: housing prices, the S&P, healthcare costs, and higher education, we're still in massive asset-price inflation territory over the past 12-13 years.
 
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