Real estate decline 2020

gework

Ostrich
Gold Member
Have you been to Sochi? I was wondering what life is like over there for a single bachelor. It seems more affordable than the bigger cities like Moscow.

There are many Armenians in Sochi and the area, so much warmer than most of Russia. The Russians are also a bit warmer there. Its not an overly attractive place and much of the outskirts are a dump.

What type of bachelor life are you interested in? Many Russian women take the oppurtunity to bang up on their holidays, while their husband is drunk at the beach.
 

Salinger

Woodpecker
There are many Armenians in Sochi and the area, so much warmer than most of Russia. The Russians are also a bit warmer there. Its not an overly attractive place and much of the outskirts are a dump.

What type of bachelor life are you interested in? Many Russian women take the oppurtunity to bang up on their holidays, while their husband is drunk at the beach.

Looking to move to Eastern Europe and find me a long-term girlfriend or wife. I'm a middle-age single man, so I'm just looking for a place with a decent night life, beautiful architecture and women, and preferably an area to flirt and find a date during the day.
 

Roosh

Cardinal
Man decided to buy the "worst house" in New Jersey city to "stand out" (i.e. satisfy his ego). It's not going so well.
Burned-out and abandoned, the Victorian house at the corner of Auburn and Fair streets symbolized Paterson’s drug scourge so much that three years ago someone sprayed-painted “Crackadopia” across its side wall.

The addicts who gathered at 84 Auburn St. sometimes wouldn’t even bother to go inside the ramshackle and roofless building to get high. They simply hung out along the graffitied wall, where they smoked, snorted and injected their drugs right out in the open, in the daylight, almost oblivious to the passing traffic.

That was part of the reason Brian White, a novice real estate investor who grew up on a Central Jersey farm and lived in a wealthy Morris County town, decided to buy the building.

“I purchased the worst house in the city on purpose,” White said. “I wanted to do something that would really stand out.”


After a makeover that took almost 30 months, White’s eyesore has become an eye-catcher. The front of the house features bay windows and two Greek columns on a small porch. Bright yellow fishscale-style tiles loom on the third floor. Lavender plants are growing along the side of the house and there’s a lawn in the backyard.

“He did an amazing job here,” said the Rev. John Algera, a community activist who championed improved housing in Paterson for many years, as he looked over the renovated building. “This is something that should be held up and celebrated. We want to see our city prosper and this is a good example of what it could be.”

White bought the property for $80,000 in 2017 and originally estimated the renovations would run him about $350,000. He cringed when asked last week what the work ended up costing him, putting the expense at more than $1 million.

“I overspent massively,” he said.
 

scotian

Crow
Gold Member
It’s sad that those victorian era heritage homes have been wrecked by shitty people over the years. I come from a city with a fair amount of them and have always admired the workmanship, they’re solid structures and very well built homes.

So my tenant at my condo in Edmonton, one of the RVF oil sands guys who moved there from Europe, is moving out tomorrow and it’ll list soon. I’m hoping to take advantage of the real estate boom that’s going on across Canada, where rates are as low as 1.9%. I moved to Vancouver last week and looked at a condo yesterday, it was kind of depressing because I’ll be paying about $400-450K Cdn for a condo that isn’t nearly as nice as the one I’m selling for 240-250K. I may just rent for a year though, although I’d like to take advantage of the cheap mortgage rates, I also think that there may be a dip in prices once the bank mortgage deferrals and free government money ends. It probably won’t be much in Vancouver though, it’s a place people want to live in.
 
Modern Vancouver is a city built on Chinese mafia money. These aren't people that will need to sell anything and it's probably the worst place if you're looking for a real estate collapse unless something changed in recent years.

 
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Man decided to buy the "worst house" in New Jersey city to "stand out" (i.e. satisfy his ego). It's not going so well.

From the article it looks like the dude is trying to "block bust" as he purchased nearby vacant lots. He's way overspending with overpriced renovations; it also looks like he's never encountered the concept of "sweat equity". The high quality windows, siding, and landscaping are rookie moves. The buildingwide A/C, high fence, and individual washers/dryers are wins. Let's hope he didn't put in carpet in any units and expect more than 3-5 years service.
 
Mr. "White" probably sent the crackheads down there and spent nowhere near the stated amount on renovations.

 

scotian

Crow
Gold Member
Modern Vancouver is a city built on Chinese mafia money. These aren't people that will need to sell anything and it's probably the worst place if you're looking for a real estate collapse unless something changed in recent years.

There’s some truth to that, the Chinese and other foreigners have pumped up Vancouver RE in recent years and the government has tried to crackdown on the vacant investment condos but from what I’ve read, it’s a minority or the local transactions, perhaps a Vancouver local can elaborate.

Vancouver has been a Chinese heavy city for over 100 years and they’re well integrated, not all of them are super rich, although that subset exists, especially the cashed up Mainlanders who’ve arrived en masse in the past twenty years. There’s plenty of old school Chinese locals, mostly Cantonese/HK types who’ve been here forever, some are rich and hold influential positions in the city, but many are working class folk, such as the agent and seller who’s humble abode I recently visited.

I’ll say this though, I much prefer living among working class Chinese folk than working class Arabs especially (I did, in France) or Latinos, and I love Latinos.
I think that Canadian real estate will dip across the board once interest rates rise and the government cuts back the freebies, especially condos but all it takes for Vancouver to remain expensive is for China to crack down and the 300K Canucks living in HK to return, we’ll see!
 

Max Roscoe

Kingfisher
One thing I have commented on for the past several years is that despite the advances in technology, and the Information Age Economy that has replaced many jobs which require a commute to a factory or office with an online job that can be done anywhere, there has not been a huge shift out of the cities. While there has definitely been growth in people who were living abroad and working remotely, earning relatively high US wages while living a cheap life in Latin America, Eastern Europe, or Southeast Asia, it never really spread to the US mainland.

I do not see how it is possible to raise a sane family in a major US city. That said, rural life in the US is very safe, simple, peaceful, and in many ways similar to many of the foreign lands I've visited that still retain cultural and social normality.

There are smaller towns throughout the US with absolutely beautiful homes. For a long time I pondered, why are smart young people not moving to these areas? I suppose they are driven by the ease of city life, and all the entertainment it brings. But this is a huge opportunity to have a beautiful house like our ancestors, when things were still designed and built with quality and sense of purpose, and still be able to earn city-level wages while living on a fraction of city-dweller expenses.

I drove through the town of Newnan GA last year and saw someone moving in to this beautiful home:


That one probably wasn't cheap. But look at what $250,000 can get you. An acre of land and a house twice the size of many city dwellings:

Combined with essentially interest-free loans (interest rates for home loans are currently below the level of real inflation), one of these beauties is within the reach of many. Be sure you have serious intent, and treat the move as your ancestors would: This is the home you want to raise your family in, not a house you will buy for a bit and then "flip" or move along to something else. With that mindset, I think one could be very, very happy. Plenty of room for a garden, and many of your neighbors will be gardeners or even farmers. Property taxes will be half or less of what you pay in the cities.
 
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I'm fairly certain that they will tax anyone but people living in a tiny movable home / camping on empty land to the point that they'll have to get a big city job and I doubt the powers that be will allow indefinete remote work due to this. This type of stuff is already happening in Canada if I remember right. If anything increased acceptance of remote work will be used to prop up 3rd world countries even more way beyond their own capabilities. Pakistan, Vietnam and African countries will probably become prime outsourcing destinations.
 

Arado

Pelican
Gold Member
One thing I have commented on for the past several years is that despite the advances in technology, and the Information Age Economy that has replaced many jobs which require a commute to a factory or office with an online job that can be done anywhere, there has not been a huge shift out of the cities. While there has definitely been growth in people who were living abroad and working remotely, earning relatively high US wages while living a cheap life in Latin America, Eastern Europe, or Southeast Asia, it never really spread to the US mainland.

I do not see how it is possible to raise a sane family in a major US city. That said, rural life in the US is very safe, simple, peaceful, and in many ways similar to many of the foreign lands I've visited that still retain cultural and social normality.

There are smaller towns throughout the US with absolutely beautiful homes. For a long time I pondered, why are smart young people not moving to these areas? I suppose they are driven by the ease of city life, and all the entertainment it brings. But this is a huge opportunity to have a beautiful house like our ancestors, when things were still designed and built with quality and sense of purpose, and still be able to earn city-level wages while living on a fraction of city-dweller expenses.

I drove through the town of Newnan GA last year and saw someone moving in to this beautiful home:


That one probably wasn't cheap. But look at what $250,000 can get you. An acre of land and a house twice the size of many city dwellings:

Combined with essentially interest-free loans (interest rates for home loans are currently below the level of real inflation), one of these beauties is within the reach of many. Be sure you have serious intent, and treat the move as your ancestors would: This is the home you want to raise your family in, not a house you will buy for a bit and then "flip" or move along to something else. With that mindset, I think one could be very, very happy. Plenty of room for a garden, and many of your neighbors will be gardeners or even farmers. Property taxes will be half or less of what you pay in the cities.

There are bidding wars for houses in the suburbs near SF, LA, NYC, DC, and other knowledge economy cities as workers flee the urban cores. However, looking on zillow at places in Alabama, Montana, rural Virginia, Wyoming, etc, I've seen many houses much further from large cities, like the one you link above, that are much cheaper and have even had price cuts during quarantine, which would be unthinkable in many other areas where "low inventory" is repeated ad nauseum.
 

Max Roscoe

Kingfisher
Creepy Video about how Canada will do well in terms of Real Estate because the flow of immigrants will continue to increase.

We are selling our country to immigrants to maintain our wealth. Our main export for sale is selling Canadian Homes to immigrants to keep our asset bubble inflated. Canadians are LAZY.
That is a feature, not a bug, of the debt based economic system we have in the west.
Few people will talk about this, but the debt system actually *requires* never ending growth (which of course is ultimately impossible).
Unless we change the debt system we have, we actually *need* immigration to support constant growth at all times. Our cities must expand, our tax rolls must grow larger, and this year's sales at every business must outpace last year's (meanwhile our roads, schools, airports, and hospitals stay the same size, and we all get squeezed and service and quality go down) or else the system falls apart into insolvency.

This is why we will never see an end to immigration.
 

bubs

Sparrow
I wonder if things go ultra commie in the US if there will be a push to raise property taxes to crazy high levels to force most of the middle class out of their homes and into Govt subsidized dismal mega-apartments. Only the 1% can afford to own property/land. I’ve already seen scenarios of this in my area with home building impact fees. Flat $12k if you want to buy land and build a house...regardless of the cost/size of the house. Because of this the countryside is littered with new 5000sq ft homes being built over last few decades and very few 3 bedroom ranchers being built.
 

Roosh

Cardinal
There are signs of froth in the NYC suburbs:
Over three days in late July, a three-bedroom house in East Orange, N.J., was listed for sale for $285,000, had 97 showings, received 24 offers and went under contract for 21 percent over that price.
On Long Island, six people made offers on a $499,000 house in Valley Stream without seeing it in person after it was shown on a Facebook Live video. In the Hudson Valley, a nearly three-acre property with a pool listed for $985,000 received four all-cash bids within a day of having 14 showings.
Since the pandemic began, the suburbs around New York City, from New Jersey to Westchester County to Connecticut to Long Island, have been experiencing enormous demand for homes of all prices, a surge that is unlike any in recent memory, according to officials, real estate agents and residents.
In July, there was a 44 percent increase in home sales for the suburban counties surrounding the city when compared with the previous year, according to Miller Samuel Real Estate Appraisers & Consultants. The increase was 112 percent in Westchester, just north of New York City, and 73 percent in Fairfield County, Conn., just over the state border.
At the same time, the number of properties sold in Manhattan plummeted 56 percent, according to Miller Samuel.
 
That is a feature, not a bug, of the debt based economic system we have in the west.
Few people will talk about this, but the debt system actually *requires* never ending growth (which of course is ultimately impossible).
Unless we change the debt system we have, we actually *need* immigration to support constant growth at all times. Our cities must expand, our tax rolls must grow larger, and this year's sales at every business must outpace last year's (meanwhile our roads, schools, airports, and hospitals stay the same size, and we all get squeezed and service and quality go down) or else the system falls apart into insolvency.

This is why we will never see an end to immigration.
Interesting. Yesterday I asked about decreasing birth rates in the US. Your comment ties in even though you are talking about Canada.
 

Arado

Pelican
Gold Member

NoMoreTO

Ostrich
Spoke with a friend in Southern Ontario looking for a farm.

- He tried to put in a private offer for 1.8M because he had heard the farmer was selling.
- Farmer Listed for 1.9M
- Farmer Sold for 2.5M

This is over 20K CAD / Acre. When I was buying my much smaller farm we were using 10K & 11K / Acre as benchmarks.

Farms at least where I am are not getting any cheaper in the last while.
 
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