Real estate decline 2020

paninaro

Kingfisher
Pensions and 401'k are both ponzi schemes. Is it possible to abolish them? Because unless we want a repeat of the looting there needs to be a way to divest Main Street entirely from any and all Ponzi schemes like this one.

Most 401ks let you choose what to invest your money in. You can put it 100% in cash or T-bills if you like. How exactly is that a ponzi scheme?
 

infowarrior1

Hummingbird
Most 401ks let you choose what to invest your money in. You can put it 100% in cash or T-bills if you like. How exactly is that a ponzi scheme?

What you have already said above. That the bad debts were able to be offloaded to the 401ks and Pensions. Thereby enabling golden parachutes for Wall Street and forcing the 401Ks to hold the bag.

How is that not a Ponzi scheme or a scam to fleece money?
 

Coja Petrus Uscan

Hummingbird
Gold Member
The OECD, which harmonises legislation between member states is pushing that those who have private pensions loose their state pension. You put in 10% or whatever of your income for 40-50 years, for nothing.

I would not trust any pension scheme of any kind. The current system is hard wired to decline and they are going to squeeze the middle class to death to hold on to power.

I am heavily moving to the position of getting a smallholding. At least then I have something when they start rolling up all of their ponzi schemes and marching the average pleb into government dormatories.
 

Roosh

Cardinal
How do you explain a property with this kind of sales history:

screenshot-www.realtor.com-2020.12.07-01_27_32.png
My guess is the 8/14/2015 was a foreclosure. A flipper rehabbed the house for a profit. Then someone lived in the house for 3 years before selling to someone who has only lived in the house for 2 years before wanting to do the same. Maybe a neighbor problem?
 
Generally, it's local governments that handle zoning, not the Federal government. There are a few exceptions, like when it's federally-owned land but can you give an example of the federal government stepping over local zoning authorities in suburban housing developments?
Didn't Oregon recently effectively ban exclusively Single Family Housing areas for communities with more than 10,000 residents? [Article link]

While it allows for different housing stock to be developed in an area, and accommodate new, and existing residents, it also is diminishing the right of existing homeowners. Existing homeowners who have a clear, quantifiable stake in the sustainability of particular area are ultimately those required to absorb any impacts (positive or negative) as a result of the change. It should be at the full discretion of the affected area as to whether they are willing, and able to absorb such significant changes to their local area. After a decision has been made by referendum, then the decision should be respected.

The Government (local/state/federal) has the ample resources required to effect such a change. Any Government Housing Authority could simply construct enough unit blocks that it would double the number of dwellings in a particular suburb within one election cycle (3-4 years). This would result in a significant oversupply in that suburb, of which the remaining home owners would have depressed property values.

I have seen this happen in the suburb my father grew up in. The original subdivision was comprised of 1/3 acre (1,350sqm) lots with modest dwellings. In the early 1970's, the State Housing Authority bought a swath of these lots that were closest to the train station, and built numerous unit blocks which housed between six and twelve families on a lot that originally housed one. The Housing Authority housed newly arrived refugees, and the dregs in these new units. Eventually the suburb experienced events that were extremely uncommon for the area prior, and white flight occurred.
 

Dr Mantis Toboggan

Kingfisher
Gold Member
How do you explain a property with this kind of sales history:

View attachment 27533
My guess is the 8/14/2015 was a foreclosure. A flipper rehabbed the house for a profit. Then someone lived in the house for 3 years before selling to someone who has only lived in the house for 2 years before wanting to do the same. Maybe a neighbor problem?

Would need to know more about the neighborhood but it could just be a series of investors taking profit off the table. Agree that the 3 sales in 2015 are likely someone buying it, getting foreclosed, and then someone rehabbing and flipping it (12/18/15 and 12/22/15 listed as 2 separate sales is likely just some sort of bookkeeping anomaly). The person who purchased the property in December 2015 went on to make ~20% profit in 3 years, and the next owner if they sell for roughly what the property is listed at now will be making ~25% in less than 2 years. Effectively much more in both cases given that they're likely pretty heavily leveraged.

Assuming this is DC area you've also got a fairly transient population, lots of people come through and spend 2-5 years working there then head someplace else. Military being the big one but also any number of government/think tank/etc workers or even foreigners doing a rotation at their country's embassy in DC and using the opportunity to make a few bucks in the US housing market.
 

Troller

Kingfisher
How do you explain a property with this kind of sales history:

View attachment 27533
My guess is the 8/14/2015 was a foreclosure. A flipper rehabbed the house for a profit. Then someone lived in the house for 3 years before selling to someone who has only lived in the house for 2 years before wanting to do the same. Maybe a neighbor problem?
It can also mean some structural problem with the house. Which the buyer only realizes it’s existence after a while.
 

Thomas More

Hummingbird
How do you explain a property with this kind of sales history:

View attachment 27533
My guess is the 8/14/2015 was a foreclosure. A flipper rehabbed the house for a profit. Then someone lived in the house for 3 years before selling to someone who has only lived in the house for 2 years before wanting to do the same. Maybe a neighbor problem?
It must have undergone significant damage in 2015 when the price went from $153K to $80K. I owned a house that had been in a fire. Some guy bought it, restored it, and then I bought it from him. It had a similar record like this of being sold for well under the expected value.
 
Generally, it's local governments that handle zoning, not the Federal government. There are a few exceptions, like when it's federally-owned land but can you give an example of the federal government stepping over local zoning authorities in suburban housing developments?

Ben Carson (Trump's HUD guy) just recently terminated an Obama program called AFFH. IF Biden gets power, expect these sort of programs to be reinstated and put into overdrive.

This is from some libtard housing NGO


On July 23, 2020, Secretary Ben Carson announced in a press release that the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD) will terminate the Affirmatively Furthering Fair Housing (AFFH) regulation issued under the Obama administration. The rule required cities and towns that receive federal funding to examine local housing patterns for racial bias and design a plan to address any measurable bias.

In its place, HUD has created a new rule, called Preserving Community and Neighborhood Choice, which defines fair housing more broadly to mean housing that, among other attributes, is affordable, safe, decent, free of unlawful discrimination, and accessible under civil rights laws. It then defines “affirmatively furthering fair housing” to mean any action rationally related to promoting any of the above attributes of fair housing. The new rule will rely on local governments to self-certify that they are furthering fair housing.

The public will not have a chance to weigh in on this new rule and it is considered final.

On March 16, 2020, CHAPA submitted comments to HUD opposing its proposed change to the AFFH rule.

From Biden's website on what he plans to do:


  • Eliminate local and state housing regulations that perpetuate discrimination. Exclusionary zoning has for decades been strategically used to keep people of color and low-income families out of certain communities. As President, Biden will enact legislation requiring any state receiving federal dollars through the Community Development Block Grants or Surface Transportation Block Grants to develop a strategy for inclusionary zoning, as proposed in the HOME Act of 2019 by Majority Whip Clyburn and Senator Cory Booker. Biden will also invest $300 million in Local Housing Policy Grants to give states and localities the technical assistance and planning support they need to eliminate exclusionary zoning policies and other local regulations that contribute to sprawl.

  • Eliminate local and state housing regulations that limit affordable housing options and contribute to urban sprawl. Housing policy can be used as a tool to battle climate change. Many lower- and middle-income Americans are forced to live far away from job centers due to high housing costs, leading not only to workers being overburdened by long commutes and transportation costs, but also to higher greenhouse gas emissions. Biden will tie new federal investments in housing to a requirement that states and localities eliminate regulations that reduce the availability of affordable housing and contribute to sprawl. He will direct his Secretaries of Housing and Urban Development and Transportation to identify existing federal grant programs that can be amended by adding zoning reform as a requirement. And, Biden will expand investments in Local Housing Policy Grants to give states and localities the technical assistance and planning support they need to modernize housing regulations.
 
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EndlessGravity

Kingfisher
How do you explain a property with this kind of sales history:

View attachment 27533
My guess is the 8/14/2015 was a foreclosure. A flipper rehabbed the house for a profit. Then someone lived in the house for 3 years before selling to someone who has only lived in the house for 2 years before wanting to do the same. Maybe a neighbor problem?

Could be nothing. First sale might have been a normal sale due to life changes. Current sale could be because of Covid insanity.

As someone else said, all depends on your area too. Here, it's easy to find old people that have been in a house for 30 years or more. So I'd red flag the property to investigate more. DC though? Seems more normal.

I typically make sure to talk to the selling agent and owner separately and casually when I can. Get them to lower their guard and they'll tell you all sorts of things.

Edit: also talk to neighbors if that's still possible.
 

paninaro

Kingfisher
Ben Carson (Trump's HUD guy) just recently terminated an Obama program called AFFH. IF Biden gets power, expect these sort of programs to be reinstated and put into overdrive.

This is from some libtard housing NGO




From Biden's website on what he plans to do:


These plans are all wishy-washy, and cities are not required to do any of it -- they can just turn down the federal funds.

Even if they join the program, the requirements are so broad that any smart city planner and zoning board can say they comply and not really change much. From the text of the bill referred to, a city can comply by just by doing stuff like:

" include, as appropriate, policies relating to inclusive land use, such as ... taxing vacant land or donating vacant land to nonprofit developers ... and .. establishing development tax or value capture incentives".

Sure, there is stuff about other ways to comply, like expanding affordable housing and multi-family developments (apartments) but it's not required. A good local government can just say "Hey, we add a tax on vacant land and add a value capture incentive, now give us our money."
 
"they can just turn down the federal funds."

[...after a year of devastating tax revenue losses due to COVID and years if not decades of financial mismanagement...]

"A good local government can just say...."

[...like all those state/local GOPe guys who are cucking on Trump, selling out to China/Big Tech/Big Business, and enabling massive voter fraud...]

 

nordle

Pigeon
Roosh, now that you have Mexican-level construction skills, would you not consider buying a fixer-upper and doing it yourself? I genuinely believe it is a major life achievement to create a home. To build one from bones.
 

Max Roscoe

Kingfisher
We haven’t been building many houses for a decade.

View attachment 27500
Meanwhile, the population has been growing.

If we haven’t been building enough houses for a decade, it would take many many years of above normal construction to close that gap. Folks, there‘s going to be a low supply of housing for a long long time. That, coupled with record low mortgage rates, and people’s desire to have more space during ‘Rona, it’s pushing prices up.
That data is only meaningful when one considers multiple unit construction as well (apartments, condos, etc.). I couldn't easily link to a graph, but the Census Bureau Multifamily building permit starts shows strong increases in apartment construction:
2011 184,000
2012 285,100
2013 341,100
2014 382,000
2015 454,500
2016 421,100
2017 424,800
2018 433,800
2019 481,400

There is a huge push away from single unit detached dwellings (particularly on acerage) and towards dense urbanization. If they are merely ramping up apartments while cutting detached homes, that is just substituting one housing type for another and the overall number of housing units churned out is likely the same.

That said, the effects of Covid-19 are very much in opposition to the Agenda-21 plans of mass urbanization, and if cities continue their decline of the past year while suburban areas boom, we could see increases in single family construction and declines in apartment construction. Also keep in mind there is essentially no immigration going on right now, and probably drastically fewer births than normal, so population numbers are much more stable than in prior years (that's what happens when you have a homogeneous population in an advanced civilized society).
 

Lothario

Pelican
Gold Member
Howdy Troller, I am asking for the sake of learning Why No ? What kind of pitfalls Roosh can get into while attempting a rehab himself which at minimum can mean Flooring and Paint i.e taking out the old carpet, making sure sub floor in intact, laying a tongue and groove laminate or hard wood, dry wall prep and paint and trim work OR a much more involved gutting of the house. If some work is beyond his skillset it can be subcontracted beats hiring a General Contractor.

I am currently looking at a deal from foreclosure auction/Master commissioner sale with a plan to Buy, Rent, Rehab and Refinance. I think the acronym I have seen used is BRRR.

Correct me If I am wrong but when new start of SFH or others start at full pace Price will be at least 20-30% higher. Price of Lumber has easily doubled. OSB sheets, 4 X 4 posts, 2 X 4 board, etc at Big Box stores are astronomical. New houses will be expensive but profit can be made at Rehabbing an Old house to rent or sell.

Looking forward to ideas, suggestions etc.
 

Roosh

Cardinal
The market is just too heated in the DC exurbs. Houses are going very quickly. It's fascinating to watch overpriced junk I pass on become "Pending/Contingent" within a week. I sense people are using mostly emotion in these buying decisions to not miss out. It feels like the frenzy of 2008.

Thing is this may not be a "bubble". There is a structural shortage of single family homes. But if interest rates go back up and there are many foreclosures, which is inevitable at this point, we may see things cool down a bit, but I'm not hopeful prices will decline outside the urban areas.

Personally, I feel uncomfortable buying a home when things are in flux politically. I like being nimble in movement and with my cash. I'm not even sure if buying a home is right for me as a single man, as much as I would love to have some acreage. What am I going to do on a plot of land 90 minutes away from everyone I know?
 

nathan

Robin
The market is just too heated in the DC exurbs. Houses are going very quickly. It's fascinating to watch overpriced junk I pass on become "Pending/Contingent" within a week. I sense people are using mostly emotion in these buying decisions to not miss out. It feels like the frenzy of 2008.

Thing is this may not be a "bubble". There is a structural shortage of single family homes. But if interest rates go back up and there are many foreclosures, which is inevitable at this point, we may see things cool down a bit, but I'm not hopeful prices will decline outside the urban areas.

Personally, I feel uncomfortable buying a home when things are in flux politically. I like being nimble in movement and with my finances. I'm not sure if buying a home is right for me as a single man, as much as I would love to have some acreage.

Also all that money they are printing has to go somewhere.
 
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