Real estate decline 2020

Your premise makes sense for people that think logically and fiscally. The majority of people think emotionally. Corona and communist riots have made city living suck more than it used to and people are now fleeing. It's White Flight 2.0 plus attractive mortgage rates.
Aren't people buying now with prices so low?

My market has been decimated.
 

JTA

Pigeon
Exurbs that are rural with acreage and lower densities will get a boost.
I'm curious as to how long this trend will last in the next decade.

Is it realistic for legacy urban-to-suburban dwellers to acclimate to and be satisfied with rural accommodations, in the long-term?
 
This has been my experience after 20 years working closely in real estate investment. Realtors know nothing about houses, economics, or markets. They are useless salespeople that will say anything, no matter how stupid, to get a sale. No matter what "it's always a good time to buy real estate!"

Home inspectors aren't much better and I can concur: become your own inspector. It's honestly shocked me how few people keep any paperwork on their homes and do nearly zero maintenance even when things are screwing up. I can't tell you how many times I've dealt with people with nearly zero documents. If you have any real questions about a property, forget it; you'll have to find out yourself through research.
Real Estate Agents for the most part are identical to a guy in finance - a suit and a haircut.

Like with most topics, any man of moderate intelligence could garner more knowledge on it by thoroughly reading a few books, than someone who has done a degree in it.

University students rarely retain a lot of the subject matter related to their assignments after it is assessed.

I concur with the point that most homeowners can not be relied upon to ensure maintenance is up to date. Even if they do bring in professionals to undertake the work, standards can be sloppy.

An extreme example of neglect goes to the next door neighbour of a friend of mine. She is in her mid 80s, and constantly complains that my Friend's large tree is affecting her plumbing, and she always has to gets people in to fix it. The tradesmen have spoken to my friend and told him that the house is barely habitable, due to decades of neglect. Where the sunroom at the rear of the house is, it is all boarded up, as the windows were smashed in after an intense hail storm....IN 1985!

As that house is heritage protected, any renovation instantly becomes 100x more complicated. That is another thing to watch out for.
 
I'm curious as to how long this trend will last in the next decade.

Is it realistic for legacy urban-to-suburban dwellers to acclimate to and be satisfied with rural accommodations, in the long-term?
It is quite possible, a lot of folk moved from rural to urban areas without too much adjustment. But for long term viability, you need to integrate with the community, and have roots there.

It is almost identical with the tiny home movement. It isn't a long term solution for most people, and you eventually want some commonalities with mainstream folk.
 
Your premise makes sense for people that think logically and fiscally. The majority of people think emotionally. Corona and communist riots have made city living suck more than it used to and people are now fleeing. It's White Flight 2.0 plus attractive mortgage rates.
It is White Flight 2.0. Liberal leaning areas will become more liberal. Conservative leaning areas will become more solidly so. It is the "swing" areas that one would want to avoid.

Also lets be honest. People will pay a hefty premium to avoid being stuck in a shoebox in any reocurring lockdowns. At least in a suburban subdivision one has a yard, and can potter about in the garden, and it is much quieter. Where being stuck in an apartment there isn't the space to separate work, and home life.
 

Dilated

Robin
I recently bought a house- and overpaid by $15k because the market is insane like everyone here is saying- but I did it for a different reason:

Security

I’m fully employed and haven’t had any income loss this year but the instability of everything due to COVID has me thinking long-term security. Specifically, I can pay for the mortgage and all monthly living expenses with less than half of my investment income.

I don’t need wage income if I were to lose my job.

I went from renting in a major Southern metro for $1,200/mo. to having a mortgage for $750/mo. And locked in a historically low interest rate.

It’s also a conservative small city with excellent schools in a red Midwestern state.
 

Coja Petrus Uscan

Hummingbird
Gold Member
^ That data compounds my leaning that we may not see a real recession in the ensuing years. Everything they say suggests that they are going to crank up the debt consistently for the next decade to paper over the recession that would otherwise be. The US and the main Western nations still have relativity small government debt burdens and seems The Fed is buying.

fredgraph.png



By locking cash up in mortgages and debt it will send velocity down and given them more room for printing.


media%2FEphGUhFW4AAOink.jpg%3Fname%3Dorig



Inflation will be modest and primarily act as a redistribution mechanism from families to the central planners.

I think they are going to ride this system out for ten years and by 2030 they will have more developed technologies and a poorer demoralised population to force us into The Mark system.
 

Robert High Hawk

Kingfisher
^ That data compounds my leaning that we may not see a real recession in the ensuing years. Everything they say suggests that they are going to crank up the debt consistently for the next decade to paper over the recession that would otherwise be. The US and the main Western nations still have relativity small government debt burdens and seems The Fed is buying.

fredgraph.png



By locking cash up in mortgages and debt it will send velocity down and given them more room for printing.


media%2FEphGUhFW4AAOink.jpg%3Fname%3Dorig



Inflation will be modest and primarily act as a redistribution mechanism from families to the central planners.

I think they are going to ride this system out for ten years and by 2030 they will have more developed technologies and a poorer demoralised population to force us into The Mark system.

Excuse my ignorance but what is "The Mark system"?
 

Coja Petrus Uscan

Hummingbird
Gold Member
Excuse my ignorance but what is "The Mark system"?

Revelation 13:17, KJV: "And that no man might buy or sell, save he that had the mark, or the name of the beast, or the number of his name."




 
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Robert High Hawk

Kingfisher
Revelation 13:17, KJV: "And that no man might buy or sell, save he that had the mark, or the name of the beast, or the number of his name."






Wow. Well thanks for the clarification, even though I may have trouble sleeping tonight.
 

Coja Petrus Uscan

Hummingbird
Gold Member
Source: https://www.mansionglobal.com/artic...avor-with-first-time-buyers-in-the-u-k-222841

Cities Falling Out of Favor With First-Time Buyers in the U.K.​

Survey finds that just 29% are planning to invest in the city​


First-time buyers in the U.K. are shunning city living and are turning to the suburbs instead, according to a report from Trussle.

Metropolitan hotspots are falling out of favor with the buying group, despite the career prospects and higher salaries that often come as a perk of living in those areas, the London-based online mortgage broker said Thursday.


A survey of 2,000 first-time buyers found that 71% are planning to buy in towns, suburbs and rural locations and just 29% are hoping to invest in a city—a “remarkably low” level that has been largely altered by the coronavirus pandemic.

The appeal of moving away from urban locales has been well documented amid the virus, with buyers increasingly seeking more space and access to greenery—amenities that are not readily available in city locations.

Prior to the pandemic, London neighborhoods dominated the list of most popular destinations for first-time buyers, but now 35% say the financial impact of Covid-19 has priced them out of the market, the report said.




The higher cost of city homes overall was a major contributor to the decline in demand for urban living, with 65% of survey respondents reporting that it was “impossible” to get on the housing ladder.

...

One of the few positive trends. It is probably in part driven by rootless leftists, living in cities with no plan to settle.
 

aynrus

Kingfisher
This real estate trend leads to dilution of rural conservative votes by the relocated city people and wider distribution of liberal votes throughout the country. Means they can hold power for a long time. The only hope is that once out of the cities they can start seeing more clearly.
 

aynrus

Kingfisher
It is White Flight 2.0. Liberal leaning areas will become more liberal. Conservative leaning areas will become more solidly so. It is the "swing" areas that one would want to avoid.
Seeing the opposite. Hordes are moving to rural Kentucky and similar normally conservative places, from big city areas, and while they're not your BLM leftist types, they often can be considered moderately liberal, taxation-loving, restrictions-loving types (which they got used to in FL, NY and CA). Most bare land sold is restricted and only a liberal-at-heart would accept the restrictive garbage written in those covenants. Going to a big grocery store in most places in rural Kentucky is like going to a store in California now in terms of whom you see there, except in parts of California I've seen less masks.
 

NoMoreTO

Ostrich
I'm in a rural environment. What we are seeing here is "City Money". Everything seems cheap for a Metropolitan type, who is accustomed to high prices, so they bid aggressively.
 
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