Real estate decline 2020

NoMoreTO

Pelican
I've considered this with respect to my Toronto Condo, sell before the crash hits home hard. Use it to buy land in the same year.
 

Troller

Woodpecker

"Rents for a one-bedroom apartment dropped most in the cities richest in high-paying tech jobs, falling 9.2% in San Francisco compared with May of 2019. In Mountain View, home to Google, rents fell 15.9% year over year, while in Apple’s hometown of Cupertino rents dipped 14.3%, according to the rental search engine Zumper. In San Bruno, where YouTube has its offices, rents tumbled 14.9%.

“It’s a dramatic drop in San Francisco and the South Bay,” said Zumper CEO Anthemos Georgiades. “This is real. We have never seen anything like it.”
 
In the Rust Belt it happened fast. I'm now 46 and although Detroit was bad my entire lifetime I can remember when it was a functional city with social and technological importance.

Heck, it still had neighborhoods where a house was worth $400,000 in 1986. The utter dereliction of Detroit happened swiftly. And other rust belt cities.

My grandfather owned a lumber yard and when he died fairly young of emphysema his insurance paid out nearly a million dollars.

My grandmother purchased a new condominium with a swimming pool and backyard worth $400,000. The neighborhood was mostly Germans and Polish with a few Jews. Mostly the children of immigrants, like my grandparents.

I stayed there during my summers as a child.

Twenty years later in 2006 my brother called me to tell the entire area was now more or less a ghetto. An Asian family-Hmong I think-had bought the condo for $40,000 and my brother explained we were lucky to even sell it at all.

My brother himself moved from Orange County-he is an urban planner whose salary was maybe $80,000 a year-because he could not afford a private school and did not want his daughter to go to public schools in Los Angeles.

Middle-class whites in America seem now to be playing hopscotch. Live somewhere for 10 or 20 years, then it becomes a ghetto or barrio, move again, repeat process.
 

STG

Robin
In the Rust Belt it happened fast. I'm now 46 and although Detroit was bad my entire lifetime I can remember when it was a functional city with social and technological importance.

Heck, it still had neighborhoods where a house was worth $400,000 in 1986. The utter dereliction of Detroit happened swiftly. And other rust belt cities.

My grandfather owned a lumber yard and when he died fairly young of emphysema his insurance paid out nearly a million dollars.

My grandmother purchased a new condominium with a swimming pool and backyard worth $400,000. The neighborhood was mostly Germans and Polish with a few Jews. Mostly the children of immigrants, like my grandparents.

I stayed there during my summers as a child.

Twenty years later in 2006 my brother called me to tell the entire area was now more or less a ghetto. An Asian family-Hmong I think-had bought the condo for $40,000 and my brother explained we were lucky to even sell it at all.

My brother himself moved from Orange County-he is an urban planner whose salary was maybe $80,000 a year-because he could not afford a private school and did not want his daughter to go to public schools in Los Angeles.

Middle-class whites in America seem now to be playing hopscotch. Live somewhere for 10 or 20 years, then it becomes a ghetto or barrio, move again, repeat process.
White flight started from the cities to the suburbs after the race riots in the 60's. The next step for white flight is suburbs to rural. It will be easier to drive 50+ miles one way to go to Walmart once a week then it is to send your children to that urban/suburban public school.

You can see the value of real estate by looking at the demographics. Use the website City-Data and you can look up cities and towns to see the pie chart demographic data.

There are still places where you don't have to lock your doors and there is no crime. These places have their own issues, a lack of women, lack of high paying jobs, etc., but the direction America is headed in its up to you to determine the pros and cons.
 

acco

Woodpecker
Dr. Black Pill said:
My grandmother owned a condominium ... in Detroit that was worth $400,000 in 1986 when she bought it. When she died, it was worth $40,000. And my brother told me were lucky to get that much.

@Dr. Black Pill Cross-post
Can you explain why prices have fallen by 90%?
 

NoMoreTO

Pelican
My understanding is that they basically gave the inner city up to crime. All the whites moved to the suburbs. The city population itself was 2M then I remember losing a bet once and it was only 600K, everyone moved to the burbs and the city was destroyed.
 

Dr Mantis Toboggan

Woodpecker
Gold Member
Anyone have any experience in short-term rentals (AirBNB, VRBO, etc) outside major cities? It'll be a couple years before I have the cash to do it but I want to get some rural land with a cabin (or space to build one) up in the mountains on either side of the North Carolina/Tennessee border. My thinking is that my family and I can use it ourselves a few weekends out of the year (we live in Charlotte about 3 hours away from the area I'm looking at), rent it out the rest of the time, and have it available as a bugout spot if civilization goes to shit. The problem is that I have no frame of reference for what kind of rental income I can expect in those areas, and as it's a very rural area I'm not sure how I would go about getting a trustworthy property manager (I'm not counting on getting a ton of positive cash flow from this, just want to make sure I'm getting enough on an annual basis to cover the mortgage).
 

Papaya

Crow
Gold Member
Dr. Black Pill said:
My grandmother owned a condominium ... in Detroit that was worth $400,000 in 1986 when she bought it. When she died, it was worth $40,000. And my brother told me were lucky to get that much.

@Dr. Black Pill Cross-post
Can you explain why prices have fallen by 90%?
Because Detroit has only had Democratic mayors since 1962...Case closed

68Jerome Cavanagh - WJROneOfAKind.jpgJerome CavanaghJanuary 2, 1962 – January 5, 1970Democratic[7]The 1961 mayoral race was the first campaign undertaken by the young Jerome Cavanagh.[101] He was perceived as an easy opponent for incumbent Louis Miriani, but with the backing of the city's African-American community, Cavanagh pulled off a stunning upset.[101] Cavanagh was initially a popular mayor, appointing a reformer to be chief of police and marching arm-in-arm with Martin Luther King, Jr. down Woodward Avenue. Cavanagh was reelected overwhelmingly in 1965, and in 1966 was elected president of both the United States Conference of Mayors and the National League of Cities.[101] However, his reputation was dimmed by the 1967 riots, and he declined to run for a third term. He later ran for Governor of Michigan, but lost in the primary, and died in 1979.[101]
69Roman S. Gribbs.jpgRoman GribbsJanuary 6, 1970 – January 1, 1974Democratic[7]Gribbs served as an assistant prosecutor from 1956 to 1964 and as sheriff of Wayne County in 1968 and 1969 before deciding to run for mayor.[102] Gribbs served a single term as mayor, declining to seek re-election.[103] After leaving office, he served as a circuit court judge from 1975 to 1982 and on the Michigan Court of Appeals from 1982 until his retirement in 2000.[102][103]
70Mayor YoungColeman YoungJanuary 1, 1974 – January 3, 1994Democratic[7]
71Mayor ArcherDennis ArcherJanuary 3, 1994 – December 31, 2001Democratic[105]
72Mayor KilpatrickKwame KilpatrickJanuary 1, 2002 – September 18, 2008Democratic[107] Kilpatrick was twice elected mayor, but resigned office in 2008 after a corruption scandal; he was later sentenced to 28 years in prison.[109]
73Mayor CockrelKenneth Cockrel, Jr.September 18, 2008 – May 11, 2009Democratic.[110]
74Mayor BingDave BingMay 11, 2009 – December 31, 2013Democratic[110]
75Mayor-elect DugganMike DugganJanuary 1, 2014 – presentDemocratic
 

ball dont lie

Kingfisher
Gold Member
Detroit is an urban wasteland. The bar area that has been built up in the last 5-10 years near the new stadiums looks like someone took war torn Bosnia and plopped a few interesting restaurants there.

50% of adults in Detroit are illiterate. That is not a joke, its probably higher than that. 7% of kids in schools can read at their grade level.

People who dont spend time in places like Baltimore, Detroit, South Chicago, they have no idea how bad things can get. And things are actually much better now than they were in the crack and ghetto rap days of the 90s. There has been a movement by many younger people to move into the cities and gentrify. The blacks in Detroit were very upset, as usual, that someone was making the city better and it wasnt black people.

Anyways, here is an article on the reading situation. I have had numerous experiences in Detroit trying to communicate with local people in English and found it much easier to do in Asia with people speaking a second language. Basically a large portion of the people there are functionally retarded. Many of the rest are very stupid, but could manage if they were part of a normal society. They arent, so the whole place is toxic.

https://www.detroitnews.com/story/opinion/2018/03/07/reading-detroit-schools-beyond-basics/32717301/

The tragic truth is we are failing many of our children in America and if they do not receive some badly needed intensive care they may never recover.

One of the great strengths of our country historically was our ability to teach most of our children well if they reached our public schools.

Reading was and is the key to education. A good public school education was the great equalizer that created huge opportunity for those who made it to class. Our founding fathers thought an educated populace was essential to our representative democracy.

March is national reading month and yet we have hundreds of thousands of children who cannot read and therefore cannot receive the education they need to succeed in life. We know a child who struggles to read becomes an adult who struggles. And right now too many children and adults in Detroit and elsewhere in Michigan are struggling.

Only 7 percent of students in the Detroit Public Schools Community District can read at or above grade level. Nearly half of all adults in Detroit are functionally illiterate meaning they cannot read their child a bedtime story even if they had a book and wanted to read to them. Hearing words and being exposed to books before school begins is a huge advantage for children from more affluent families. When entering kindergarten, a child from a poor family has heard 30 million fewer words on average than his or her peers from wealthier families.

This is a huge but not insurmountable deficit. All is not lost. There is a solution. At Beyond Basics we teach children, even those facing the biggest challenges, to read. Our system is proven. It works and it is scalable. Give us six to 12 weeks with a student and one of our trained tutors and we can turn a third-grader, a sixth-grader, even a twelfth-grader and all grades in between into a reader. Our challenge has been that we haven’t had the funding to teach every child to read who needs our help.

Elijah Craft is a great example of a student we’ve helped. In October 2016 we met Elijah; a 6 foot 6 17-year-old high school senior who could run football plays but could only read at the first grade level and was at the bottom of his class.

Before he learned how to read, he was afraid to go any farther than a few blocks from home. After completing our one-on-one tutoring program, he graduated 25th in his class and is now volunteering at Life Remodeled’s Durfee Community Innovation Center and working at the Boys and Girls Club. Elijah attended Waldorf University in the fall and plans to transfer to Oakland Community College to be close to family. Learning to read transformed his life. Last week, he participated in our literacy summit to encourage students to do the hard work to learn to read. His powerful words have more students coming forward to get help. We’ve helped many Elijahs. There’s a success story for every child who is tutored by Beyond Basics. Our goal is to help each and every child who needs it.

An increase in per pupil funding from the state alone will not address this problem. One-size-fits-all education does not work. Some have greater need. Intensive care costs more but only for a brief time. Once a child has learned to read and has caught up to grade level, every other education dollar spent on them becomes a true investment.

While we must help all children learn to read by third grade — we can and must do right by all those children who make it to high school unable to read. Illiteracy need not be a lifelong affliction. We must reach these students and turn them into readers now. Their futures and ours depend on it.

Pam Good is president and executive director

of Beyond Basics.
 

redbeard

Hummingbird
Moderator
Rents are not dropping as much as I had expected. I'm hearing that real estate is still selling like hot cakes. What's going on?
 

Athanasius

Kingfisher
This is a pretty harrowing example of what caused white flight in the 60s. It's long and interesting reading (nb: some vulgarity).

It brings context to Michelle Obama's unintentionally hilarious comment a year or two ago of what happened to her family in Chicago: "There were no gang fights, there were no territorial battles. Yet one by one, [whites] packed their bags and they ran from us. And they left communities in shambles.”

Yes, all those people who kept tidy neighborhoods and moved out left their community in shambles. It had nothing to do with who moved in.

My own nearby city never became the complete cluster of Detroit, but it has had areas which 50 years ago were the nicest suburbs in town now become borderline ghetto. How did this happen? These areas were next to areas where section 8 housing expanded. Newer places sprang up further from these areas. The areas around cities are a slow game of chase, except for the burbs with 3,000+ sq ft houses that are too expensive to broach.

If you're keeping score at home: moving in is bad (gentrification). Moving out is bad too.
 

NoMoreTO

Pelican
^^ Its interesting that the 'defund the police' is translating quickly to 'more community / social housing'.
 

paninaro

Kingfisher
Anyone have any experience in short-term rentals (AirBNB, VRBO, etc) outside major cities? It'll be a couple years before I have the cash to do it but I want to get some rural land with a cabin (or space to build one) up in the mountains on either side of the North Carolina/Tennessee border. My thinking is that my family and I can use it ourselves a few weekends out of the year (we live in Charlotte about 3 hours away from the area I'm looking at), rent it out the rest of the time, and have it available as a bugout spot if civilization goes to shit. The problem is that I have no frame of reference for what kind of rental income I can expect in those areas, and as it's a very rural area I'm not sure how I would go about getting a trustworthy property manager (I'm not counting on getting a ton of positive cash flow from this, just want to make sure I'm getting enough on an annual basis to cover the mortgage).
Depends a lot about if that area is desirable for tourists. Then you have to deal with turnover (new guests every few days) and having a good property manager (in vacation towns, this can be tough because there are few year-round locals and they can get away with doing a crappy job). The property manager costs can really cut into your profits.

My friend does this, but in a tourist city and he has about 10 apartments. He makes it work by doing almost all the management himself, including cleaning. I went by his house a few months ago and he renovated it to include 4 industrial washer/dryers to handle all the bedsheets he has to wash.

Also realize it's hard to keep the place occupied 100% of the time. What if you get one booking for Friday - Monday, then another for the next Thursday-Sunday..? Is anyone really going to rent it for the Tuesday-Wednesday in between? Probably not, so your property is sitting idle and not making money.

That's why a lot of people in residential rentals prefer long-term tenants like someone who will rent for a year or two. Once you have them in, just sit back and do little while the rent check rolls in every month. Of course the monthly revenue is lower compared to putting it on AirBnb if you can rent it on Airbnb most of the time, but that's tough.

Years ago I had a work assignment in another city that sees a lot of tourism but only in the summer. I cut a deal with an Airbnb owner that I'd rent it for the entire year. While they made a fraction of what they'd usually make in the summer compared to Airbnb, they still came out ahead overall because the place would otherwise be empty in the dead of winter.
 

gework

Ostrich
Gold Member
Anyone have any experience in short-term rentals (AirBNB, VRBO, etc) outside major cities?
I've had a lot of experience with AirBnB (which I no longer use). I thought about the possibility of using it to rent our rooms in the future.

After thought I've decided against it. For one you will have to use these globohomo companies like AirBnB. Two, you will have some bad guests who will leave your place a mess. Three, you have to deal with all the bills. Four, you have to spend lots of time handling guests and issues. You will expect to be on call 24/7. Five, AirBnB support is awful.

I was thinking of having a few rooms at my home to rent out. But I realised - If I have 100 guests, technically at least one will be a peado, in the vicinity of my kids. My experience of dealing with people is most are not well behaved. I don't like dealing with bad people and this is a constant stream of unknown quantities.

If you want exposure to real state buy a REIT. Some are down about 50% and you're looking at 10% forward dividends when the economy is back.

What would you get from AirBnB? 100 days occupied at $100 / day, minus their take that's $9,700. You're probably looking at $5,000 for bills. So it's about $400 per month for dealing with about 20 people per year.
 

SlickyBoy

Ostrich
Detroit was one of the many cities deliberately slaughtered as part of the (((plan))) against Catholic neighborhoods.

There were many other eastern cities that met this fate; we're only now beginning to understand why, but the second someone does. This series of videos barely scratches the surface of what's covered in his book by the same title.

Dr. Jones goes into the template for the operation against the neighborhoods, a book by a Swede named Gunnar Myrdal, An American Dilemma (actually mostly written by Louis Wirth, an American Jewish sociologist with an axe to grind).

TL;DR - it was deliberate social engineering against the very conscience identity of those neighborhoods.
 

Dr Mantis Toboggan

Woodpecker
Gold Member
Depends a lot about if that area is desirable for tourists. Then you have to deal with turnover (new guests every few days) and having a good property manager (in vacation towns, this can be tough because there are few year-round locals and they can get away with doing a crappy job). The property manager costs can really cut into your profits.

My friend does this, but in a tourist city and he has about 10 apartments. He makes it work by doing almost all the management himself, including cleaning. I went by his house a few months ago and he renovated it to include 4 industrial washer/dryers to handle all the bedsheets he has to wash.

Also realize it's hard to keep the place occupied 100% of the time. What if you get one booking for Friday - Monday, then another for the next Thursday-Sunday..? Is anyone really going to rent it for the Tuesday-Wednesday in between? Probably not, so your property is sitting idle and not making money.

That's why a lot of people in residential rentals prefer long-term tenants like someone who will rent for a year or two. Once you have them in, just sit back and do little while the rent check rolls in every month. Of course the monthly revenue is lower compared to putting it on AirBnb if you can rent it on Airbnb most of the time, but that's tough.

Years ago I had a work assignment in another city that sees a lot of tourism but only in the summer. I cut a deal with an Airbnb owner that I'd rent it for the entire year. While they made a fraction of what they'd usually make in the summer compared to Airbnb, they still came out ahead overall because the place would otherwise be empty in the dead of winter.
I've had a lot of experience with AirBnB (which I no longer use). I thought about the possibility of using it to rent our rooms in the future.

After thought I've decided against it. For one you will have to use these globohomo companies like AirBnB. Two, you will have some bad guests who will leave your place a mess. Three, you have to deal with all the bills. Four, you have to spend lots of time handling guests and issues. You will expect to be on call 24/7. Five, AirBnB support is awful.

I was thinking of having a few rooms at my home to rent out. But I realised - If I have 100 guests, technically at least one will be a peado, in the vicinity of my kids. My experience of dealing with people is most are not well behaved. I don't like dealing with bad people and this is a constant stream of unknown quantities.

If you want exposure to real state buy a REIT. Some are down about 50% and you're looking at 10% forward dividends when the economy is back.

What would you get from AirBnB? 100 days occupied at $100 / day, minus their take that's $9,700. You're probably looking at $5,000 for bills. So it's about $400 per month for dealing with about 20 people per year.
Thanks for the feedback guys. The area I'm looking at is the Smoky Mountains near the Tennessee/NC border (either side of the border is fine), nearest town of any size would be Boone, NC. It's a popular area for year-round tourism (skiing in winter, hiking/biking/etc other times of the year) and within a few hours' drive of several major metropolitan areas. I'd also be open to looking further north in West Virginia but that's further from me and I'm not as familiar with the area.

I'm actually getting ready to set up my first rental property in a major city (almost said bought my first but that isn't 100% accurate, we're actually living in the house now but moving into a new house soon and keeping this one as a rental), this would be a different venture altogether--planning to sell the rental in 3-5 years and the plan would be to use part of the money from that for the down payment.. The main reason I want the mountain property is for vacation use maybe 4-6 times a year for us and a bugout location. AirBNB (or VRBO, Booking.com, whatever--definitely open to other suggestions there and you're correct about not wanting to do business with globohomo AirBNB) rentals would just be to cover the mortgage and while I obviously want to get as much cash from it as I can I'm happy as long as we're cash-flow neutral with the mortgage and routine maintenance. So midweek vacancies etc aren't the end of the world as long as it's occupied enough on an annualized basis to pay for itself, and my wife is a stay at home mom so she could handle the guest issues remotely. But like I mentioned my #1 concern is having it managed in terms of cleaning, guest turnover, etc as this area is a little too far from me to be able to properly manage it myself, and also there seems to be no easy way to project how much income I'll be getting from it.

Edit to add - I wouldn't consider doing short term rentals in a major city, and also the clientele and demographic who would be renting a mountain house for the weekend is very different than who would be doing so in a city.
 
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Hindu Man

Sparrow
My parents have an extra suburban home in one of the Mountain West states. Hope they can sell it (for market price or above) by the end of summer 2020.
 

infowarrior1

Hummingbird
^^ Its interesting that the 'defund the police' is translating quickly to 'more community / social housing'.
More incubators for crime too. Failed communist solutions that never stop being implemented. Because the Democratic governors never suffer the consequences in their gated communities.
 

The Wire

Kingfisher
Gold Member
Rents are not dropping as much as I had expected. I'm hearing that real estate is still selling like hot cakes. What's going on?

Real estate lags way behind other economic indicators. You could say last time it was 3 years behind the Feb 2009 bottom of the stock crash being Feb 2012.


The case today is that there have been very few homes sold since Feb this year because of COVID19 so there is a shortage of housing keeping prices high. The real question is what happens a year from now with all of the job losses, civil unrest and remote working. I suspect cities are going to get annihilated in the next 2 years. In some ways that could actually keep prices in the surrounding areas from dropping as much as they could be.



 
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