Real estate thread

NoMoreTO

Ostrich
Facts (my clients are in high end real estate but it's also common knowledge). Ppl clamoring to outbid others, etc. Not sure about the bottom end of the market though. Commercial is hurting everywhere though

Commercial is where the opportunity could be I believe. But it takes some serious stones to buy a place with very limited future capability of walk in business. That said, taxes are always high for commercial. Regarding residential, in my province ,all evictions have been frozen. The backlog of delinquent tenants is already long, but will be longer.
 
I believe the housing market is definitely in a bubble right now but when prices start to fall, it will always happen in the most bubbly areas first. This process will be greatly accelerated by Covid, the new remote work paradigm, and the recent urban civil unrest. We are already seeing huge numbers of people fleeing the most overpriced and democrat-controlled urban markets like San Francisco, Los Angeles, Portland, Seattle, Denver, Chicago, and New York City. So if you live in one of those areas, I'd recommend selling now. If you are looking to buy in secondary and tertiary markets away from the big Blue Chip metros, I would not count on prices falling that much. Like in 2012, the areas that didn't experience insane bubbles will probably level off or slightly decline before rebounding.
 

Troller

Pelican
  • Billionaire investor Sam Zell is bullish on real estate despite the COVID crisis.
  • He does not buy into the work-from-home hype and expects urbanization to continue for decades to come.
  • Sam Zell has similar thoughts:

    "If you move to Nowhere, Iowa, it's 5 o'clock there every day. And what do you do at 5 o'clock? Go across the street to the pig farm? We are social animals."
    "The world for 500 years has been urbanizing - maybe longer. It's been urbanizing because we are social animals and because we put a priority on the integration of people and the integration of the whole society. And that's what's built great cities, and those cities have perpetuated. And they went through the Panic, and they went through the influenza of 1918, and they went through the Black Plague."
    "And they went through a whole bunch of pandemics, including this one. And the perseverance of urban centers continued throughout all those periods and it ain't going to change now."
 
  • Billionaire investor Sam Zell is bullish on real estate despite the COVID crisis.
  • He does not buy into the work-from-home hype and expects urbanization to continue for decades to come.
  • Sam Zell has similar thoughts:
Imagine my utter surprise that this billionaire looks down his nose at the hard-working Middle Americans who feed the rest of us, ridicules simple small town life, and promotes continued urbanization as if it's a sure thing. I think he's suffering a bit of normalcy bias and underestimating the number of people who have had enough of multicultural crime-ridden cities. That said I hope he's right, it would be nice if most people remained in their self-made hellholes instead of invading rural America.

Just curious about the ol' early life...

"Zell was born on September 28, 1941,[3] in Chicago to a Jewish family. His parents, Ruchla and Berek Zielonka, were Jewish immigrants from Poland, where his father had been a successful grain trader.[4][5] They emigrated to the United States with their young daughter, Leah, via Tokyo.[6][4][7] Soon after arriving, his parents changed their first and last names, becoming Rochelle and Bernard Zell."
 

datdude84

Pigeon
Residential has room to climb but only because of the mania associated with it. It seems like everyone I know is either a day trader or becoming a realtor, lol.

This all feels like a bubble but the most important thing that the guys in this YouTube clip talk about is to flip your thinking on what's the asset and what's the liability when buying a house with a mortgage. When you buy a house, you usually finance it with 30 year, fixed rate debt. In this inflationary environment we're heading into, that low-rate debt actually becomes your asset. The house, on the other hand, because we're in this over-inflated territory, actually becomes the liability.

They also talk about how some commercial space is good (auto shops, retail with a grocery store as an anchor, etc.) but some are getting smashed. I think this is when people get creative to try and turn those empty spaces into something that fits our new covid world.

Interview is with George Gammon, Jason Hartman and Ken McIeroy... 3 experts in the real estate game.

 

From the article:

"In a “severely adverse” scenario, unemployment rises by 4 percentage points to reach nearly 11% in the third quarter of next year, as gross domestic product falls and asset prices drop sharply, including a 55% decline in equity prices."

Hear that guys? They're just curious about what banking may look like in a 55% market downturn later this year. Pay no attention.

Regarding real estate in general, I've recently been browsing for homes and/or land, and everything even remotely desirable/habitable is listed for way more than the appriased value. Especially the rural areas that are within an hour of civilization. If you're willing to go way way out into nowhere, there may still be some good deals available.
 

tomzestatlu

Kingfisher
This question is not up to topic, since I dont live in US and can´t discuss local situation, but it has something to do with RE, so I will place it here.

At the beginning to say RE situation in my country is ridiculous. It´s impossible for me as a young person without any "support" to buy a flat in bigger cities. Even medium sized city is slowly getting out of question, unless I want to buy garsoniere. For each flat of lower price category there´s 20-30 people interested in buying it.

Recently I ran to this well reconstructed and big flat (could fit 4 members family in) in smaller city, which is just about 10 minutes drive from the city I wanted to move to. It has some smaller things that might be problem for someone, but it has really good price. At the beginning, I told RE agent over the phone, that I don´t want to waste my time and money just to have a look, while having minimum chance to get the flat. He told me, that he´s playing no games and he will sell it to the first person, who will be seriously interested. By that moment, there were some people interested, but nobody said final yes.

We agreed on meeting next day, he showed me the flat and it was really nice. I know that demand for such flats is extreme (he said that 30 people called him about this one) and I told him I´m seriously interested. He told me, he takes into account, that I am the first seriously interested. But he said, that before we sign a contract that will secure me buying it, I must meet their finance guy and he must find out, if I am suitable for getting a mortgage (law and banks currently demands secured job and 10% of property value as down payment - I pass both I know, that I can afford to get a mortgage for property of 20-25% higher price, than this one).

He said he will give me a time to overthink it over the weekend and next week I will speak to finance guy. I asked him - what if somebody else says he is seriously interested meanwhile? He responded me, that he will call me first and ask me. Yesterday I sent him SMS ensuring him, I am interested and he replied, he acknowledges that and he will arrange me a meeting with finance guy.

This all sounds fair, but I think, that they are just trying to get more time to get more offers - higher ones. There´s a selling price of property, but RE agencies try to sell it for higher prices, since demand is extreme and there´s not enough supply of properties, especially in this low-cost area.

So I am really afraid of getting phone call, that somebody put a bid for higher price he´s willing to pay. I started as a young with zero support and I really want to buy a property for me, since the bar for getting into club of home-owners is getting higher and higher. But also, I can´t afford to invest somehow more money into it.

I know there are many experienced guys from both sides here (investors and sales). What would you advice me to really get the flat and what to do, if someone offers more? He´s guy of similar age as I am (late 20s), maybe trying to bribe him with some extra cash on his hands?
 
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Who cares?... they're gonna seize it all at the end of the day anyway.

I was looking at getting into real estate development... the play could be to build/improve something, get it revalued and take a mortgage on the higher value, take the cash (knowing the property will be seized by the bank in future), rent it for income, emigrate, invest the 'loan'... kiss off the property.

On seizing private property, all these rent moratoriums and business loans (taken on the never never) make total sense when you realize the plan is debt forgiveness in return for vax and ownership forfeiture.

That's what they're playing... they even discussed the plan in a private government meeting in Canada (that was leaked, obviously).

It's talked about late in this interview [1:05]; www.londonreal.tv/buttar
 
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HKBhusal

Sparrow
Who cares?... they're gonna seize it all at the end of the day anyway.

I was looking at getting into real estate development... the play could be to build/improve something, get it revalued and take a mortgage on the higher value, take the cash (knowing the property will be seized by the bank in future), rent it for income, emigrate, invest the 'loan'... kiss off the property.

On seizing private property, all these rent moratoriums and business loans (taken on the never never) make total sense when you realize the plan is debt forgiveness in return for vax and ownership forfeiture.

That's what they're playing... they even discussed the plan in a private government meeting in Canada (that was leaked, obviously).

It's talked about late in this interview [1:05]; www.londonreal.tv/buttar
th
 

30WK

Chicken
Who cares?... they're gonna seize it all at the end of the day anyway.
Wrong... again. Please stop with the fear mongering doomsday stuff that never materializes. No one is coming to seize your property and take away your cash and force vaccinate you and implant you with a microchip (while the amoral sacrilegious low IQ feminine Trump crosses The Rubicon). That is, as long as you lay low and fly under the radar. However, if you accumulate vast sums of wealth or seek attention via some form of public spectacle then all bets are off.
 
Wrong... again. Please stop with the fear mongering doomsday stuff that never materializes. No one is coming to seize your property and take away your cash and force vaccinate you and implant you with a microchip (while the amoral sacrilegious low IQ feminine Trump crosses The Rubicon). That is, as long as you lay low and fly under the radar. However, if you accumulate vast sums of wealth or seek attention via some form of public spectacle then all bets are off.

"Wrong... again"??

How the shit do you know the plan??

Ever heard of the Great Reset? "You will own nothing and be happy?"
 
Wrong... again. Please stop with the fear mongering doomsday stuff that never materializes... No one is coming to seize your property and take away your cash and force vaccinate you and implant you with a microchip (while the amoral sacrilegious low IQ feminine Trump crosses The Rubicon). That is, as long as you lay low and fly under the radar. However, if you accumulate vast sums of wealth or seek attention via some form of public spectacle then all bets are off.

Admin; can we bookmark this post and check back in a decade?
 

Troller

Pelican
This question is not up to topic, since I dont live in US and can´t discuss local situation, but it has something to do with RE, so I will place it here.

At the beginning to say RE situation in my country is ridiculous. It´s impossible for me as a young person without any "support" to buy a flat in bigger cities. Even medium sized city is slowly getting out of question, unless I want to buy garsoniere. For each flat of lower price category there´s 20-30 people interested in buying it.

Recently I ran to this well reconstructed and big flat (could fit 4 members family in) in smaller city, which is just about 10 minutes drive from the city I wanted to move to. It has some smaller things that might be problem for someone, but it has really good price. At the beginning, I told RE agent over the phone, that I don´t want to waste my time and money just to have a look, while having minimum chance to get the flat. He told me, that he´s playing no games and he will sell it to the first person, who will be seriously interested. By that moment, there were some people interested, but nobody said final yes.

We agreed on meeting next day, he showed me the flat and it was really nice. I know that demand for such flats is extreme (he said that 30 people called him about this one) and I told him I´m seriously interested. He told me, he takes into account, that I am the first seriously interested. But he said, that before we sign a contract that will secure me buying it, I must meet their finance guy and he must find out, if I am suitable for getting a mortgage (law and banks currently demands secured job and 10% of property value as down payment - I pass both I know, that I can afford to get a mortgage for property of 20-25% higher price, than this one).

He said he will give me a time to overthink it over the weekend and next week I will speak to finance guy. I asked him - what if somebody else says he is seriously interested meanwhile? He responded me, that he will call me first and ask me. Yesterday I sent him SMS ensuring him, I am interested and he replied, he acknowledges that and he will arrange me a meeting with finance guy.

This all sounds fair, but I think, that they are just trying to get more time to get more offers - higher ones. There´s a selling price of property, but RE agencies try to sell it for higher prices, since demand is extreme and there´s not enough supply of properties, especially in this low-cost area.

So I am really afraid of getting phone call, that somebody put a bid for higher price he´s willing to pay. I started as a young with zero support and I really want to buy a property for me, since the bar for getting into club of home-owners is getting higher and higher. But also, I can´t afford to invest somehow more money into it.

I know there are many experienced guys from both sides here (investors and sales). What would you advice me to really get the flat and what to do, if someone offers more? He´s guy of similar age as I am (late 20s), maybe trying to bribe him with some extra cash on his hands?
Give money. Even if it´s a low sum. Before money is exchanged RE brokers consider all offers. If you want to close it. Call him and say you want to make a reservation with 2k. If he refuses money than he is waiting for some other buyer with better offer to decide.
 

tomzestatlu

Kingfisher
Give money. Even if it´s a low sum. Before money is exchanged RE brokers consider all offers. If you want to close it. Call him and say you want to make a reservation with 2k. If he refuses money than he is waiting for some other buyer with better offer to decide.
It works like this, that you sign a reservation contract with RE agency and pay few thousands as reservation.
And he told me, that before this is done, I have to meet their finance guy. But practically, if I made a reservation and didn´t get mortgage, it would be my problem and they would keep reservation and sell it to somebody else. So its not really necessary.
I told him I want it and I will pay reservation, so I think he´s trying to make time to get higher offer.

That why I asked if I should bribe him.
Well it´s Sunday evening, so I will wait and see tomorrow. If somebody puts a bid (I think that it would be adding 2.5k) I will offer him 2k bribe to ignore it (that´s very decent mothly sallary in this country). If the only option would be to rise the bid, I will do it by smaller possible number and still offer him the bribe to stop at current bid and sign it with me.
 
Wrong... again. Please stop with the fear mongering doomsday stuff that never materializes. No one is coming to seize your property and take away your cash and force vaccinate you and implant you with a microchip (while the amoral sacrilegious low IQ feminine Trump crosses The Rubicon). That is, as long as you lay low and fly under the radar. However, if you accumulate vast sums of wealth or seek attention via some form of public spectacle then all bets are off.

How is it not possible? They are already doing it through taxation. Even if you inherit a home free and clear you must pay. All they need to do is crank it up a notch and millions will be knocked off the ladder. Wealth redistribution, even through elaborate indirect mechanism, is a valid concern
 

Troller

Pelican
It works like this, that you sign a reservation contract with RE agency and pay few thousands as reservation.
And he told me, that before this is done, I have to meet their finance guy. But practically, if I made a reservation and didn´t get mortgage, it would be my problem and they would keep reservation and sell it to somebody else. So its not really necessary.
I told him I want it and I will pay reservation, so I think he´s trying to make time to get higher offer.

That why I asked if I should bribe him.
Well it´s Sunday evening, so I will wait and see tomorrow. If somebody puts a bid (I think that it would be adding 2.5k) I will offer him 2k bribe to ignore it (that´s very decent mothly sallary in this country). If the only option would be to rise the bid, I will do it by smaller possible number and still offer him the bribe to stop at current bid and sign it with me.
That doesn´t make sense. Why would he refuse a reservation when the risk is all on your side? He is playing with offers. Ask him what is the real value he wants to close. Ask him to pay a buyer comission. And how much he wants. Bribe is a too strong word. Something that normally makes RE brokers salivate is telling them either you plan on reselling the property and they will be the one to broker it. Or telling them you might sell some other property you own. They drool over this.
 
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