Real estate thread

FactusIRX

Kingfisher
We were planning on buying a house this year in the country, but now that's back to being a dream. The Marxists that run every major city in North America have made them impossible to live in, so any suburb or rural property is selling within a day, way over asking price.
 

kel

Ostrich
Sucks because I was planning on looking for property out of the city this year (for the past couple years, actually). I wonder how long this can keep up.
 
The current stimulus and infrastructure packages will undoubtedly be shaping development patterns for years to come.

Will people continue to exit cities when the only major investments are within the urban cores and energy prices double? So many jobs are one click away from total offshoring/automation. This is just a continuation of the Obama "recovery" (controlled demolition)
 
This could go on for years.

It could but with 60% less inventory on the market nationally and more than 5% in what is essentially government-postponed foreclosure, we are probably seeing the end of the real estate market as we know it or something close to it. Real estate never recovered after 2008 so these are very bad signs for any asset class.

More realtors I know are starting to freak out as they realize they can't make money in a market with no liquidity. I'm betting on a sweet spot where whatever buyers are left start to throw in the towel out of frustration and banks continue to constrict loans further, locking out more people. For a prime or super-prime purchaser with some cash for a large down payment there may be opportunities.
 
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C-Note

Ostrich
Gold Member
I don't know about other cities, but condos in downtown DC aren't selling. The ones that are bought are going for at least $10k less than the listing price. All the liberal office workers want to move to the suburbs, even the gay ones. Since most liberals are uncomfortable living around Trump supporters, I imagine we're going to get liberal enclaves (Portlandias) set up in various rural areas around the country.
 

Roosh

Cardinal
It could but with 60% less inventory on the market nationally and more than 5% in what is essentially government-postponed foreclosure, we are probably seeing the end of the real estate market as we know it or something close to it. Real estate never recovered after 2008 so these are very bad signs for any asset class.

More realtors I know are starting to freak out as they realize they can't make money in a market with no liquidity. I'm betting on a sweet spot where whatever buyers are left start to throw in the towel out of frustration and banks continue to constrict loans further, locking out more people. For a prime or super-prime purchaser with some cash for a large down payment there may be opportunities.
What I'm curious about is all those forbearances that are supposedly ending now. Surely those will have an effect on the market.
 
What I'm curious about is all those forbearances that are supposedly ending now. Surely those will have an effect on the market.

They've been extended to Sept. (as two 3 month extensions). In recent testimony Powell confirmed they think they can soft land the forebearance problem as people come off it instead of foreclosing. However, I could see the program never going away.
 

Guy80

Sparrow
What I'm curious about is all those forbearances that are supposedly ending now. Surely those will have an effect on the market.
the forbearance was extended. I'm awaiting those foreclosures so I can buy.
Also crypto, real estate and econ people are saying 3-4 years until the economic downturn occurs
 

Papaya

Peacock
Gold Member
Not independently.... But anecdotally a neighbor who's in the auto market research industry told me that cars are seeing low inventory in general but luxury / exotic cars blew up after the first round of CARES Act funny money.
 

Gimlet

Kingfisher
Not independently.... But anecdotally a neighbor who's in the auto market research industry told me that cars are seeing low inventory in general but luxury / exotic cars blew up after the first round of CARES Act funny money.

The cost of moving a shipping container YoY right now is 2.5 times the cost in my particular product category and freight lanes. This morning I had a call with a different industry player who sells products at the $10-$12k retail price, from a shipping land out of Asia, he said he was at 4 times over March 2020. None of those factors have anything to do with the CARES act. Anyone in the market for a new car (and can actually afford said car) would be smart to buy now before the landed costs hit the sticker. Ditto for all imports. Your neighbor sounds like he does not really understand global supply chain factors that increase price. As you surely know, causation and correlation are entirely separate matters. Too many factors are at play to blame the CARES act on anything. (I did discuss what I do in the Suez thread days ago; I tell you this so you know I am not making up knowledge as a flex.)
 
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Guy80

Sparrow
For what it's worth, the used car market (2- 4 years old I believe) typically peaks a couple years before the market downturn. From what I read exotic cars and lux goods are usually dumped around the downturn and can be purchased for cheap, used, then resold for profit even once market corrects
 

NoMoreTO

Ostrich
I recently spoke with a friend in Toronto. He presented a case for a possible pause in Toronto real estate (which is basically a bear for Toronto).

Simply put, as the prices are flying so high, more people are getting greedy and putting their homes on the market. Simply put they want to cash out. As this occurs, you get more supply, which then reduces the competition for the homes and causes a price decline or normalization. I think this makes sense, the market needs to normalize. Many have been smart jumping into real estate with this money printing. But it's hard to know where the money printing stops and the frenzy begins. You'd have to be a master in econometrics to be able to gauge it, along with an economy that must be shrinking.

Either way, we just don't know where we stand. The rules of the game can change at any moment with stimulus spending or a fed announcement.

Also, interesting little strategy here to present against downside if you do decide to buy into the climb. As you buy a home with an over inflated price, hedge it with a Short on Real Estate ETFs to balance out your risk.

 

DanielH

Pelican
Homes in my region increased in price by at least as much money as I was able to save in the past year by living at my father's home rent free while he was overseas (My wife and I did major renovations to the home with his money in exchange for living there). I make good money for someone my age. If I can't save faster than home prices go up, what can I or should I do? I have plans to live with my mother in-law the next year but will be paying her rent ~600/mo. It's really disheartening that as an adult who doesn't waste my money, has a good job, saves everything I can, that home prices are ballooning faster than I can save. My only expenses now are 600 for rent, car payment and insurance. That's it. My wife and my phone plans are covered by our parents and we have no subscriptions. I can't get around this by buying a fixer-upper. Even they went up in price by tens of thousands in my area. Do I just give up and wait for a crash and stick with family in the meantime? I'd love to get one of our parents to agree to just flee the area with us, because it is definitely not safe a safe area if Officer Chauvin is found not guilty.
 
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