Market decline within 2 years and a credit crunch crashing prices and only allowing for big credit or cash buyers?
It's both. A large percentage of urban office workers are liberals and they're expecting to be mainly teleworking from now on, so they're looking for a more pleasant, comfortable house to do it from. Also, many of them are terrified of the virus, so they want to move to an area that is less densely populated. They would never admit it, but the rise in crime, chaos, and taxes in Democratic-run cities is also a factor.Do you think the mainstream disinterest in downtown condos is because of the virus and teleworking or is it because of a subconscious need to prep and be further away from urban chaos? If the former then the market should die down soon enough, if the latter then things may never equalize.
With vaccinations and gradual return to normal will the appeal of the suburbs go down, even if the long term threats to social stability remain?
Let´s say I have had more opportunities to "settle" with a girl coming from wealthier family. And I am not saying I wouldn´t accept such girl only as a protest or demonstration of my manliness. On the other hand, I can´t build relationship on that and choose my life partner based on how wealthy her family is. That´s what I wanted to say.I'm kind of with you. I'm Gen X and managed to buy a house before the real estate market exploded, praise the Lord, but for the younger generations marrying into a good family that already owns several properties looks like an increasingly good option. Why not, if you can pull it off. The nice, free world of abundance and opportunity for everyone that existed in the West when I was a young man is rapidly fading away like the historical anomaly it is as the Anglo-Saxon and other western European populations that created it are increasingly demonized and increasingly fail to reproduce.
One can just travel to wast rural landscapes of North-Western California to see it, former city liberals had taken over the entire region long time ago(and it had been weed-growing region for a long time). If you go to many other rural areas in California, Nevada, Arizona, New Mexico, Colorado, Washington, Vermont and other New England places you can these formerly very conservative areas having tons of liberals, masks on everyone, certain types of establishements they like in towns, etc. Just the expansion of gentrification to outside of the cities/suburbs. I would not expect them to just easily go back once they had ventured out of their cities.It's both. A large percentage of urban office workers are liberals and they're expecting to be mainly teleworking from now on, so they're looking for a more pleasant, comfortable house to do it from. Also, many of them are terrified of the virus, so they want to move to an area that is less densely populated. They would never admit it, but the rise in crime, chaos, and taxes in Democratic-run cities is also a factor.
Yes, I believe that liberals will eventually return to their gentrified neighborhoods in city centers, unless they can create those kinds of neighborhoods in the suburbs. The restaurant/bar/lounge/arts lifestyle is really important for these liberal types, especially the gay ones. They say they want to be surrounded by "diversity," but really what they mean is they want an active social, hedonistic life among other like-minded liberals. If the lawlessness and virus restrictions in liberal cities continue, then I would expect liberals to start creating Portlandias (probably in the style of hipsterish town center living and shopping areas) in the suburbs. If that occurs, then urban city centers will become ghost towns.
Yes. Farms in region of Ontario have been being bought more and more by corporations. In Manitoba, corporations are buying up huge swaths of land. The Teachers pension fund here in the province is known for being quite saavy and are now buying up farms.
A farmer explained it to me:
- Typical Return on Investment for a Farm is 1.5-2.0% (not including capital gains)
- The typical individual buyer takes on a mortgage at 3.5% interest, meaning that he has to gap the difference by either supporting the investment with other farm income, refinancing older farm properties, or off farm income (job).
- Investment funds already place large amounts of money in low risk asset classes, government bonds would be an example, yielding only 2% in many cases, but secure. They simply sell these and put them into farmland - CASH.
- On the other hand you have ETFs which when people buy, they basically just have to go out and allocate the funds into farms - further pushing the prices up.
I don't think we'll see a squeeze on real estate, but the WEF promise of "you'll own nothing and be happy" does linger in the background. To me that is how they would do it, just make housing so expensive no one can buy one. Then tax the properties upon death so that they children are almost unable to purchase. We are seeing this in farm real estate in the US with Joe Bidens pushing of "unrealized gains".
Any recommendations as to ETFs on agricultural land / farmland to hedge against coming inflation? Can't afford to buy a farm property directly so I guess ETFs are my next best option - was looking into the iShares COW ETF (agricultural) but was wondering if there are any others out there to consider?
I have been wondering how so many people seem to have hundreds of thousands of dollars on hand.Around 6 months ago someone on 4chan who claimed to be working in some sort of finical institution was claiming that banks or hedge funds were using the insane of amount of money that the fed gov was granting to them to buy single family homes.
While reading the comments on unz today, I came across this. Comment number 41 on "Coordination and Decomposition" by Gregory Hood.
I wrote a few months ago about the bizarre disappearance of affordable, middle class homes in white rural neighborhoods.
A house would appear on the MLS, and within 8 hours…it was Under Contract.
This was happening in West Virginia- a stalwart of white values and no BLM criminality would be tolerated. I wrote that something was afoot and it was frightening.
It is Black Rock.
Black Rock is buying up homes by the thousands. The average earner cannot compete as they are paying cash, and 20% over the asking price.
This is a HUGE story, with catastrophic consequences, aside from making home ownership completely unattainable for most white working class.
What is Black Rock going to do with these homes?
Homes in my region increased in price by at least as much money as I was able to save in the past year by living at my father's home rent free while he was overseas (My wife and I did major renovations to the home with his money in exchange for living there). I make good money for someone my age. If I can't save faster than home prices go up, what can I or should I do? I have plans to live with my mother in-law the next year but will be paying her rent ~600/mo. It's really disheartening that as an adult who doesn't waste my money, has a good job, saves everything I can, that home prices are ballooning faster than I can save. My only expenses now are 600 for rent, car payment and insurance. That's it. My wife and my phone plans are covered by our parents and we have no subscriptions. I can't get around this by buying a fixer-upper. Even they went up in price by tens of thousands in my area. Do I just give up and wait for a crash and stick with family in the meantime? I'd love to get one of our parents to agree to just flee the area with us, because it is definitely not safe a safe area if Officer Chauvin is found not guilty.
I think the implementation of UBI unemployment gives cover for this housing buy up
If you were 25 and had... 50,000 cash, right now, What would you do with it?
But even with a surge of new supply, the average selling price of a home in Canada hit a new record at $716,828 in March, rising 5.7 per cent from a month earlier.
There's also a lot of people with just plain liquid cash right now and without 1M house in big cities, including people who've been renting in these metros or living with parents while holding high-paying jobs.The "cash buyers" are a combination of a few things:
-Real estate investing corporations straight up paying cash with the intention of turning the house into a rental
-Individual buyers pre-approved for a mortgage up to X amount which effectively puts them on close to equal footing with actual cash buyers (since the seller isn't risking that their financing will fall through on the strength of the buyer's credit alone, although there is still risk it will after appraisal)
-People selling their $1m house in NY, CA, etc and offering to pay cash for a $350k house elsewhere (if they're smart they'll then immediately refinance to get most of their cash back at low interest rates)
There's also a lot of people with just plain liquid cash right now and without 1M house in big cities, including people who've been renting in these metros or living with parents while holding high-paying jobs.
If you make around 150K in a big city, which is pretty ordinary professional salary now (100K is like minimum wage in those, in SF Bay area 120K is considered minimum wage making one eligible for rental assistance since years ago), and you pay, say, 40% in taxes, you are still left with tons of money on hand to save. A lot of professionals are renting rooms in cities further reducing expenses. Buying 150K cash rural house in WV, Midwest or South to work from home as they're able to now is no big deal for such person. You mentioned 350K - it's really "luxury" or city homes that sell for this in many of these states, rural homes with some land cost around 150K-200K (homes in small towns can cost a lot less). If that big metro renter was sitting on 150-200K saved downpayment for jumbo mortgage (jumbo mortgages are around 20%, I believe), they might have just bought rural cash house instead last year.Yeah, true. Not so much the renters (that eats up just as much of your paycheck as a mortgage if not more) but people living with their parents for years after college for sure.
Thank you for the Kitco Canadian mint 1oz monster-box link .. Silver melt value $25oz and reputable local dealers I was buying US 1oz silver eagles about 100 plus and about 20 lbs of pre 1964 ms63 to ms65 silver coins at about $16 to $20oz silver weight per oz makes me look prescient now as 1oz US Silver Eagles selling for a whopping $42 each yes a $10 distributor commission plus $7 dealer commission per coin... Supposedly due to U.S. Mint shutting down all but one production line due to NY State covid-protocols. Looks like an opposite supply issue with Kitco Canadian Mint 1oz silver maple leaf coins... I have a few Canadian .999 pure 1$ maple leaf and a few 1oz .9999 pure $5 Canadian coins... Assume the monster box is .999 pure 1oz maple leafs... Now to monetize my collection with ETH based NFTs adding a few CAD maple leaf monster boxes to the mix.