Real estate thread

I don't buy the crypto meme and I am 100% allocated in property. For the last 2-3 years I have known that something big was coming. I kept my properties unencumbered of any mortgages. Looks like with the inflation coming now, I should have 3x'd my entire portfolio and just had inflation eat away at my debts. That said, I am still happy I only invest in real estate. Who knows what is going to happen in global finance, but land and income-producing properties will always be tangibles.
Desperate governments like real estate too. Now pay your fair share.
 

nordle

Pigeon
Desperate governments like real estate too. Now pay your fair share.
I already pay >50% tax on a high income and I feel that this is immorally high, and "more than fair". Crypto, equities and pensions will be far easier for the governments to tax than coming to every house, apartment, farm, door to door. I live in an ungovernable rural area in Ireland. My neighbours, nor myself would never allow a tyrannical government to seize land or houses in this area. Around here, the average acre of land is sold every 500 years. Land is inherited and protected. The movie "the field" is tame in comparison. I was early in BTC (2013) and I do still hold some crypto, etc. But the ultimate asset to hold onto during a crisis is real estate in my opinion.
 

AntoniusofEfa

Kingfisher
I already pay >50% tax on a high income and I feel that this is immorally high, and "more than fair". Crypto, equities and pensions will be far easier for the governments to tax than coming to every house, apartment, farm, door to door. I live in an ungovernable rural area in Ireland. My neighbours, nor myself would never allow a tyrannical government to seize land or houses in this area. Around here, the average acre of land is sold every 500 years. Land is inherited and protected. The movie "the field" is tame in comparison. I was early in BTC (2013) and I do still hold some crypto, etc. But the ultimate asset to hold onto during a crisis is real estate in my opinion.
Got any gun rights up there in Ireland?
 

nordle

Pigeon
Got any gun rights up there in Ireland?
I wish we had gun rights but we don't. We do have a decent society where the police are aligned with the people. The Gardai police with consent in a high trust society. There is still an ancestral memory of the British stealing land and houses and displacing the Irish from their own land. I live in an area that was absolutely devastated by the famine. I think that people would be coerced or forced to give up many other classes of assets before their real estate.
 

Slim Whitman

Sparrow
Clown world hits real estate:


TLDR: Some people are trying to stand out by writing nice letters to sellers in order to compete with other buyers.

Turns out people who do this are *white*, *heterosexual*, and probably even Christian, so we can't be having that.
This is exactly what was happening in the runup to the 2008 crash. There is no doubt we're in the mother of all housing bubbles.
 

doc holliday

Pelican
Gold Member
Got any gun rights up there in Ireland?
I wish we had gun rights but we don't. We do have a decent society where the police are aligned with the people. The Gardai police with consent in a high trust society. There is still an ancestral memory of the British stealing land and houses and displacing the Irish from their own land. I live in an area that was absolutely devastated by the famine. I think that people would be coerced or forced to give up many other classes of assets before their real estate.

This is the only question that matters. If the Irish government decides to take your land at gunpoint and you and your neighbors are not armed to the teeth, then you're basically a sitting duck. I'm also not so sure I would be so eager to trust the police in Ireland, seeing how they have dutifully enforced all of the curfews and travel restrictions of the Irish government. My girlfriend is from Cork and she can't believe how willingly the Irish gave up their rights.
 

Dr Mantis Toboggan

Kingfisher
Gold Member
Clown world hits real estate:


TLDR: Some people are trying to stand out by writing nice letters to sellers in order to compete with other buyers.

Turns out people who do this are *white*, *heterosexual*, and probably even Christian, so we can't be having that.

Families looking for a home also do that to differentiate themselves from investment corporations who donate a lot of money to politicians and hold stakes in major media outlets, so we definitely can't be having that.
 

Dr Mantis Toboggan

Kingfisher
Gold Member
This is the only question that matters. If the Irish government decides to take your land at gunpoint and you and your neighbors are not armed to the teeth, then you're basically a sitting duck. I'm also not so sure I would be so eager to trust the police in Ireland, seeing how they have dutifully enforced all of the curfews and travel restrictions of the Irish government. My girlfriend is from Cork and she can't believe how willingly the Irish gave up their rights.

Also see the video recently of Gardai shutting down a Catholic Mass and arresting the priest, which save for modern technology, dress, etc could have been a scene straight out of the early 19th century.

Ireland held out against the social impact of globalism longer than probably any other western European country, my theory is that the elites have decided to single them out for special humiliation as a result.
 

Hypno

Crow
This is exactly what was happening in the runup to the 2008 crash. There is no doubt we're in the mother of all housing bubbles.

No, not really.

In 2006-8, you had people buying multiple houses with an intent to sell them rather than occupy them. You also had crazy loans authorized by housing advocates in Congress - little or no money down, no documentation, interest only, or negative amortization. You don't have that this time.

What you do have now is a shortage of properties and lifetime low interest rates. Housing now is affordable - about average historically - but in 2006 it was not:

011819-TRW-Housing-Afford-Comp.png


Low interest rates mean people can pay a lot more for a house and have the same montly payment.

Wage increases since 2008 means they can afford a higher monthly payment.

Covid, work from home, and urban violence mean people are willing to pay a premium for a nicer, larger, better located home.

Government money printing has caused inflation which means the cost to build even an average home is about $200 sft, almost double the asking price of the median home on a square foot basis. In other words, home builders can build new homes but their cost - before any profit - is double the current median price.

Those all create imbalances in supply and demand that are only going to be resolved through higher prices.
 

DanielH

Pelican
My wife and I are currently competing with a cash buyer for our potential first home. Market is terrible for buyers. Mortgage agent told me he's seeing more listings since the CDC said masks aren't needed for vaccinated people. Maybe just a strange correlation.
 
In 2006-8, you had people buying multiple houses with an intent to sell them rather than occupy them. You also had crazy loans authorized by housing advocates in Congress - little or no money down, no documentation, interest only, or negative amortization. You don't have that this time.

This is the peak before the end. It often is like this, where liquidity crashes and prices soar. This is not the first time I've seen this. I cannot tell you how many people I know trying to scramble for second properties. They think it's the way, rent them or have a rural retreat. They are the last in line to the mania. Just today, a friend called to say they had bought a property they have no idea how to use, what they'll do with it, nothing. Sunk everything they had left that wasn't debt into it. "GOTTA BUY BEFORE IT'S TOO LATE"

My wife and I are currently competing with a cash buyer for our potential first home. Market is terrible for buyers. Mortgage agent told me he's seeing more listings since the CDC said masks aren't needed for vaccinated people. Maybe just a strange correlation.

It became obvious about a month ago and you can check stats nationwide: the vaccine/re-opening is over. Time-to-sell and inventory are edging up. We're probably in the end game now.
 

SlickyBoy

Hummingbird
Sign of a bubble: many properties are priced to only be suitable as Airbnb rentals, which is now going away.

I saw a travel YouTuber talk about when the scamdemic lifts how the AirBnB market will be behind the flow of tourists.

Many of the more popular destinations will have fewer than expected AirBnB stays available since over the past year, landlords had to relent and lease to locals, at longer terms for more moderate monthly rates. With so many of these formerly short stay properties tied up in leases for several months to a year from now, there will be fewer spots available for landlords to convert back into illegal hotels otherwise known as AirBnBs.

So there you have it. A California company full of soy boy middlemen artificially driving up costs for locals in faraway lands when their rental market is taken over by tone deaf short stay tourists paying a premium to rotate in and out of desirable (and once, affordable) living areas.

It makes me wonder who these ostensibly liberal dweebs think "big business" actually is when they rant about corporations and money - wait, does anyone still do that? Corporations are cool now, but we can still wear the Che Guevara t-shirt, right? This is confusing.....
 
I already pay >50% tax on a high income and I feel that this is immorally high, and "more than fair". Crypto, equities and pensions will be far easier for the governments to tax than coming to every house, apartment, farm, door to door. I live in an ungovernable rural area in Ireland. My neighbours, nor myself would never allow a tyrannical government to seize land or houses in this area. Around here, the average acre of land is sold every 500 years. Land is inherited and protected. The movie "the field" is tame in comparison. I was early in BTC (2013) and I do still hold some crypto, etc. But the ultimate asset to hold onto during a crisis is real estate in my opinion.
In USA we have property taxes on land and real estate. This is how land is "taken" No one comes to the door, families are forced to sell thier land to pay inheritance tax, or if the govt really wants it, they re-zone the land to make it more valuable than it is, increasing taxes and forcing its sale.
FYI all tax is immoral. Thou shalt not steal.
 

ball dont lie

Kingfisher
Gold Member
In my rural Midwest area there has been a huge push lately to allow accessory dwelling units (ADUs)—backyard cottages located behind larger homes. I also want to turn my detached large garage into a studio apartment. But at the moment, the local zoning laws do no allow this.

So next week I will go to the local govt meeting and make my case, along with a long list of people. I dont want to rent the space, but I feel like not being able to do what I want with my property is crazy, especially because this area has no extra housing. People looking to rent a place are desperate. I have no desire to rent out to anyone other than maybe my brother, but Im not using the garage for 11 months of the year (usually 1 month a year I park in the garage).

My garage already has natural gas, its own breaker box, and in this city the sewer goes through the alleys which is where my garage is located, so all I need to do is run city water, put a sewer pipe in about 20 feet and make a studio. It looks like there is a huge amount of support for allowing this to pass. Its basically the entire city against retired boomers who only live here 6 months a year and the rest in Florida or Texas for the winter.

 
Its basically the entire city against retired boomers who only live here 6 months a year and the rest in Florida or Texas for the winter.

I tell people to be careful when looking to move because entire cities have become nothing more than vacation rentals. I agree you should be able to do what you want with your property but it has further hollowed out any community in many places.
 
My garage already has natural gas, its own breaker box, and in this city the sewer goes through the alleys which is where my garage is located, so all I need to do is run city water, put a sewer pipe in about 20 feet and make a studio. It looks like there is a huge amount of support for allowing this to pass. Its basically the entire city against retired boomers who only live here 6 months a year and the rest in Florida or Texas for the winter.

ADUs are a step towards urbanizing a community and everything that comes with it. To me the Boomers are selfish but justified for wanting to preserve the neighborhood. Although I do appreciate the theoretical advantages of town/city life, ADUs seem like a backdoor to urbanization without proper planning and design for denser living (infrastructure, traffic, noise, schools, etc). As much as I'd like to stick it to the boomers I think they have a good point on this one.
 

Thomas More

Hummingbird
No, not really.

In 2006-8, you had people buying multiple houses with an intent to sell them rather than occupy them. You also had crazy loans authorized by housing advocates in Congress - little or no money down, no documentation, interest only, or negative amortization. You don't have that this time.

What you do have now is a shortage of properties and lifetime low interest rates. Housing now is affordable - about average historically - but in 2006 it was not:

011819-TRW-Housing-Afford-Comp.png


Low interest rates mean people can pay a lot more for a house and have the same montly payment.

Wage increases since 2008 means they can afford a higher monthly payment.

Covid, work from home, and urban violence mean people are willing to pay a premium for a nicer, larger, better located home.

Government money printing has caused inflation which means the cost to build even an average home is about $200 sft, almost double the asking price of the median home on a square foot basis. In other words, home builders can build new homes but their cost - before any profit - is double the current median price.

Those all create imbalances in supply and demand that are only going to be resolved through higher prices.
People aren't buying these houses for homes. Hedge funds and foreign billionaires are paying cash to buy them as portfolio holdings.

The difference I see from 2008 is that I believe all the money printing and out of control debt expansion will lead to inflation. In fact, I think owning property with a fixed mortgage is a good investment, because inflation is likely to balloon the value of the property, and make the fixed rate mortgage seem comparatively cheap.

This is the same reason all the hedge funds and billionaires are buying homes as a commodity. They expect them to be a solid hedge against inflation, and provide an excellent return on the pre-inflated purchase price.
 
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