Real estate thread

[Easy_C]

I wouldn't get too complacent yet. If anyone here has tried day trading it's common to have "reaction lows" where the price movement will dip below the trendline and then surge above it.


It also happens across other market sectors and on larger time lines than you encounter while day trading. Although prices are dipping now that is probably the temporary panic high settling out and the long term stagflation trend remains in play. Waves do tend to decrease in intensity as the energy behind a trend exhausts so most likely the up and down fluctuations will never be as dramatic as this first panic high and subsequent reaction dip will be, but the average trend tends to be more or less linear.

 

[C-Note]

Related: copper is also falling due to decreased demand even as yields also face downward pressure. Lots going on but all signs point to deflation. Keep an eye on those housing prices.

Copper mining stocks were down today:

COPX | Global X Copper Miners ETF Stock Price, Quotes and News - WSJ

View the latest Global X Copper Miners ETF (COPX) stock price and news, and other vital information for better exchange traded fund investing.

www.wsj.com

 

[EndlessGravity]

Amid a wave of weaker than expected housing data (sales, mortgage apps, homebuyer sentiment, and homebuilder sentiment), Housing Starts were expected to rebound in May (while the more forward-looking Permits were expected to drop). Reality was worse in both cases as Housing Starts rose 3.6% MoM (less than the +3.9% MoM expected) after a massive downward revision to -12.1% MoM in April (from -9.5% MoM). Permits tumbled 3.0% MoM (notably worse than the 0.2% MoM drop).

US Housing Starts Disappoint In May; Permits Plunge To Lowest Since October | ZeroHedge

ZeroHedge - On a long enough timeline, the survival rate for everyone drops to zero

www.zerohedge.com

 

[Dilated]

I decided to pick up, pack it all in, and I am about to buy 200 acres in a remote rural area and my intention is to have a fairly self-sufficient spread and build about an 8,000 square foot house on said land. I hope to be situated in a finished house by the middle of 2022.

Any update here? I’m considering doing the same.

 

[Roosh]

Experts predict 'obscene' homebuying market to fizzle as many become priced out

Home values throughout the Tampa Bay area are increasing by the day. Real estate agent Vincent Arcuri says around 90% of homes are selling over the asking price.

"It's at a frenzy like I’ve never seen before in 30 years!" Arcuri told FOX 13 News.

He said the market is being driven up by out-of-state buyers who make cash offers. The high demand continues to push up home values throughout the area.

Arcuri said it's an "obscene increase in property values" in a relatively short time period. For example, he recently sold a four-bedroom Carrollwood home for $492,000. However, the buyers decided they liked Sarasota better and never moved in.

Four months later, he relisted the house and sold it for $600,000.

"This person made a $100,000 profit in a very short period of time," Arcuri explained.

Experts predict 'obscene' homebuying market to fizzle as many become priced out

Real estate experts say around 90% of homes are selling over the asking price in the Tampa Bay area. Many wonder when this bubble will burst and leave some new homeowners holding the bag.

www.fox13news.com

Las Vegas area real estate inventory rising

More homes are hitting the local real estate market. On the surface, that typically would lead one to raise hopes on the side of the buyer, as more inventory usually leads to lower prices. Though, as local real estate experts are warning, the current housing market is a lot more complicated.

"I'm definitely seeing more inventory coming on the market, explained Keller Williams Southern Nevada realtor, Cristi Jessee.

Jessee has seen firsthand the increase in the number of homes hitting the market this year. Though, she adds, it's going to take more time for the buyer to even the playing field.

"While we are seeing more inventory coming on the market, we're still at a record low," she said.

Las Vegas area real estate inventory rising

More homes are hitting the local real estate market. On the surface, that typically would lead one to raise hopes on the side of the buyer, as more inventory usually leads to lower prices. Though, as local real estate experts are warning, the current housing market is a lot more complicated...

news3lv.com

 

[Hypno]

I live in Atlanta. Within 3 hours are lots of automotive factories and related factories like Michelin, auto glass, etc.

10 years ago I started to see a lot of Michigan license plates here (auto mfr.)

Recently I've seen lots of New York and New Jersey plates.

I think the Trump limits an state and local tax, coupled with the pandemic that caused people to believe they could work from home, has caused a migration from high cost areas to lower cost areas. This is just the beginning of that trend, its maybe in the second inning now.

 

[pinchharmonic]

September is when covid will be at zero because of vax etc, all the trends that created this frothy market are going to reverse. Not as many people will be able to go remote as they think. Biden tax increases will be priced in as well. No more ridic high unemployment checks.

Sept is when stuff will start to turn a corner for people who are holding out.

 

[EndlessGravity]

Saw this coming from a mile away. Can't sell homes with no inventory and buyers who are sick of the BS.

Existing Home Sales Tumble For 4th Straight Month To Lowest In A Year | ZeroHedge

ZeroHedge - On a long enough timeline, the survival rate for everyone drops to zero

www.zerohedge.com

After April's ugliness, today's Existing Home Sales data for May is the first chance to see signs of recovery in the housing market as state reopenings accelerate. Analysts, however, were not buying it, expecting a 2.1% MoM drop in the key data point, but the data did better than expected, dropping 'only' 0.9% MoM. That is the 4th straight month of existing home sales declines...

 

[TheSurveryor]

The news has reported that city I live in has reported a 20% increase in the prices of homes being sold. I assume that capital flight to my area is happening.

 

[Coja Petrus Uscan]

 

[FactusIRX]

Went to look at houses yesterday. Absolute ****show. Mediocre houses listed 40k-50k over what they were a year ago, which was as already 20k over the year before. These are properties that had sat on the market for months and just didn't sell. Bad properties selling for 600k+. Listings staying on the market for a day. Low inventory. Aggressive realtors. Still lots of panic buys. Just an absolute disaster.

 

[Dilated]

Went to look at houses yesterday. Absolute ****show. Mediocre houses listed 40k-50k over what they were a year ago, which was as already 20k over the year before. These are properties that had sat on the market for months and just didn't sell. Bad properties selling for 600k+. Listings staying on the market for a day. Low inventory. Aggressive realtors. Still lots of panic buys. Just an absolute disaster.

I had to offer 10% over list and waive inspection just to be considered. And this was 8 months ago…in an area of the country that has had a net outflow of people. Truly ridiculous.

 

[jonNorth]

Seems like more than a virus, seems like boomers are just sitting on their asses collecting pensions, social security and blowing up the healthcare system Everybody else is just fighting over the scraps

 

[FrancisK]

Seems like more than a virus, seems like boomers are just sitting on their asses collecting pensions, social security and blowing up the healthcare system Everybody else is just fighting over the scraps

Just curious, what did you do the last 5 years of your life?

 

[jonNorth]

Just curious, what did you do the last 5 years of your life?

It is worlds apart from what my parents have done. Sure I'm scapegoating and generalizing an entire generation, but there is evidence to show it is mostly true. To put it in a less crass way, inventory has not kept up with demand and the older generations have no incentive to move or sell their properties

 

[FrancisK]

It is worlds apart from what my parents have done. Sure I'm scapegoating and generalizing an entire generation, but there is evidence to show it is mostly true. To put it in a less crass way, inventory has not kept up with demand and the older generations have no incentive to move or sell their properties

Why would old people who can't work anymore or start anew sell their homes or passive income investments? To make you happy?

I'm not a boomer and my parents are off the boat so they didn't get the boomer advantage, not looking to defend it one way or the other.

I'm asking you specifically what have you done the last 5 years of your life, I'm trying to gain some perspective.

 

[jonNorth]

Why would old people who can't work anymore or start anew sell their homes or passive income investments? To make you happy?

I'm not a boomer and my parents are off the boat so they didn't get the boomer advantage, not looking to defend it one way or the other.

I'm asking you specifically what have you done the last 5 years of your life, I'm trying to gain some perspective.

I don't really want to get too specific but i've voluntarily switched employers and geographic locations twice in five years in attempt to better my life and career. I've also developed a moral conscious about where I spend my money and what type of work I do, although I did not have that just 10 years ago. I don't really expect Boomers to act differently, they are a group that is looking out for their own self interest. But that tendency is having an affect on younger generations and family formation. I don't have a solution, a little foresight and selflessness a few decades ago might have helped. As one example, there are many cases where they granted themselves entitlements based on optimistic projections that never panned out, but now they are safely collecting while others are paying for it. There is no mechanism to go back and revise those incorrect forecasts. Additionally, at least half of them didn't say a word about immigration or outsourcing as it was happening. And so many even bettered their situations or careers off the immigration and outsourcing. I always admit that I probably would have made the same mistakes if I was born in the same time and place as they were. Now this is turning into a discussion about the Boomer Question

 

[FrancisK]

I don't really want to get too specific but i've voluntarily switched employers and geographic locations twice in five years in attempt to better my life and career. I've also developed a moral conscious about where I spend my money and what type of work I do, although I did not have that just 10 years ago. I don't really expect Boomers to act differently, they are a group that is looking out for their own self interest. But that tendency is having an affect on younger generations and family formation. I don't have a solution, a little foresight and selflessness a few decades ago might have helped. As one example, there are many cases where they granted themselves entitlements based on optimistic projections that never panned out, but now they are safely collecting while others are paying for it. There is no mechanism to go back and revise those incorrect forecasts. Additionally, at least half of them didn't say a word about immigration or outsourcing as it was happening. And so many even bettered their situations or careers off the immigration and outsourcing. I always admit that I probably would have made the same mistakes if I was born in the same time and place as they were. Now this is turning into a discussion about the Boomer Question

Well the point I was looking to make was that if you had been working hard the past 5-10 years of your life and trying to always advance yourself then right now all the fruits of your labor and sacrifice are coming to fruition. If you spent the last 5–10 years of your life trying to live easy and working just enough to pay your bills then yea you’re definitely going to be having some trouble finally entering the real world right now. (IE affording a home)

That’s been my experience lately and what I have seen, everyone who worked hard and made smart moves is killing it right now and everyone who chased meaningless things is complaining about how bad things are.

Boomers have nothing to do with what you did in your life. It’s not too late either, but you’re not going to make it by blaming others.

 

[jonNorth]

Boomers have nothing to do with what you did in your life. It’s not too late either, but you’re not going to make it by blaming others.

I do think the ideas embraced by Boomers have a very real effect on all of our lives. But there is a fine line between blaming and being aware of the issue, and maybe I crossed it with my crass and grumpy statement about boomers clogging the real estate market

 

[FrancisK]

I do think the ideas embraced by Boomers have a very real effect on all of our lives. But there is a fine line between blaming and being aware of the issue, and maybe I crossed it with my crass and grumpy statement about boomers clogging the real estate market

If I went to a no skills teenager and offered him a mindless factory job making 6 figures with full benefits and a pension do you think he would turn it down? Well hey actually a teenager nowadays might because he’s an idiot but you or I certainly would not have turned it down.

It’s not that I necessarily disagree with what you’re saying but just the idea to blame someone else that your situation isn’t better has never sat well with me. I’ve seen so many people become successful the past couple years off such random diverse things, the one thing they had in common was that they worked hard and went for it. Your past choices put you where you are now, believe me I never got lucky with anything ever in fact it was the complete opposite nothing ever worked out for me. But I didn’t stop and I eventually got to a good place, you can’t stop you have to keep doing we are men, only women and children have the luxury of stopping.