Real estate thread
- Thread starter Roosh
- Start date
Wow! Real estate prices in the Denver area are way down! Just a few months ago, I was looking at Realtor.com at the whole metro area, with filters set to look at the least expensive single family houses. At that time, the cheapest house in move-in condition was $400K.
Now I am looking and there are many homes in the $300-325K range. Some of these are small and old, but there are actually some newer, larger homes in this range out on the edge of the suburbs. These are not fixer uppers that are so torn up you couldn't deal with it. They are in perfectly livable condition. This wasn't true at all a few months ago.
Of course, mortgage prices are way up now, but I'd say these prices are a low enough to make up for the increased interest rates, leaving the payments about the same as before.
I bet the sellers are wishing they sold a year ago.
Now I am looking and there are many homes in the $300-325K range. Some of these are small and old, but there are actually some newer, larger homes in this range out on the edge of the suburbs. These are not fixer uppers that are so torn up you couldn't deal with it. They are in perfectly livable condition. This wasn't true at all a few months ago.
Of course, mortgage prices are way up now, but I'd say these prices are a low enough to make up for the increased interest rates, leaving the payments about the same as before.
I bet the sellers are wishing they sold a year ago.
I live in Northern California. Bought in 2019 and sold in August. Prices are still high, but I am kicking myself for not selling in May.
I was curious how much interest payments can impact the monthly payment mortgage payment on a 30 year mortgage. I locked in a 2.75% rate in a sellers market for my 295k home a year and a half ago. I put 20% down. So the mortgage is about 220k.
Today If bought a house at 7% I would buy a 180k house and get a 144k mortgage and after a 20% down payment I would have the same monthly payment on my house I bought for 295k 18 months ago.
This is the real information right here.
I don't think enough people understand this. We always buy what monthly payments we can afford, so this reality needs to be shared far and wide.
Home sales tumbled more than 7% in November, the 10th straight month of declines
Home sales dropped an unusually sharp 7.7% in November, as high mortgage rates and home prices keep buyers on the sidelines.
Home sales tumbled more than 7% in November, the 10th straight month of declines
- Home sales declined 7.7% on a monthly basis in November.
- Sales were down 35.4% year over year, marking the tenth straight month of declines.
- The median sales price rose 3.5% to $370,700 from a year ago.
The regime is pushing no one having a stake in society -
I bet (((Jerusalem Demsas))) owns multiple rental properties, or invests in an REIT, or the like.Home sales tumbled more than 7% in November, the 10th straight month of declines
Home sales dropped an unusually sharp 7.7% in November, as high mortgage rates and home prices keep buyers on the sidelines.www.cnbc.com
Home sales tumbled more than 7% in November, the 10th straight month of declines
- Home sales declined 7.7% on a monthly basis in November.
- Sales were down 35.4% year over year, marking the tenth straight month of declines.
- The median sales price rose 3.5% to $370,700 from a year ago.
The regime is pushing no one having a stake in society -
Real estate is just another asset class which is valued according to the general macro interest rate environment. People thought they were brilliant investors buying the top last year thinking that somehow demand is inelastic.
Prices went up not because demand for shelter went up, but because M1 money supply went up, as any other asset class.
History across countries demonstrates time and time again, real estate goes up and back down again.
The constant propaganda to "own your own home" is pushed by owners looking to dump their assets at inflated prices. Just don't fall for their messaging.
Prices went up not because demand for shelter went up, but because M1 money supply went up, as any other asset class.
History across countries demonstrates time and time again, real estate goes up and back down again.
The constant propaganda to "own your own home" is pushed by owners looking to dump their assets at inflated prices. Just don't fall for their messaging.
Well it did somewhat, with us bringing in almost 3 million illegal immigrants and almost a million legal immigrants. When you try to fit an entire Connecticut or Oklahoma amount of people into the US in a single year that's going to increase the cost of living.
Add that to the increase of money supply and it just crushes anyone not living with parents.
That's actually a really useful visualization. You can see how the cycle was coming to its peak right when the lockdowns started in 2020, after years of steady growth. If nothing happened, the bubble would have burst and housing would have become more affordable again. Instead, people got pysopped by "recovery," "stimulus," and "free money," which led to another housing boom out of nowhere, like giving someone who just finished running a marathon meth and telling them they need to run back to the start line. If it weren't for the mass immigration and even more money injected into the system, I would assume the "value" of real estate would crash down to basically nothing.
With new mortgages down 47%, US lenders are starting to go bankrupt — could this one factor trigger the worst surge of failures since 2008?
US lenders are starting to go bankrupt with new mortgages down 47% — could this one factor trigger the worst surge of failures since 2008?
Holding out hope for clear skies in real estate? You may be waiting a while.
Sounds like there are lots of secret sub-prime borrowers.
With new mortgages down 47%, US lenders are starting to go bankrupt — could this one factor trigger the worst surge of failures since 2008?
US lenders are starting to go bankrupt with new mortgages down 47% — could this one factor trigger the worst surge of failures since 2008?
Holding out hope for clear skies in real estate? You may be waiting a while.finance.yahoo.com
Sounds like there are lots of secret sub-prime borrowers.
The situation in places like Canada/UK/Aus is worse than the US.
CBC released an article a couple months ago straight up showing how you can get approved for a big mortgage with fraudulent income statements etc. and numerous agents who specialie in exactly that. As long as home prices go up 30% a year, it's not an issue right?
An article was in the paper the other day about an Uber drvier buying a 1.9m place, an hour out side of toronto (Brampton, the "poor" part of the extended city), and the kicker is that these aren't particularly nice homes in particularly nice areas. To buy even an average home in Toronto or Vancouver you need to be a 1%er to afford it by conventional metrics.
30 years of constantly trending down interest rates have made the same payment support much higher prices. But then I guess I was the fool since at some point, as home prices approached 10x annual income I thought that some adults would enter the room, and stop worsening the problem by throwing everything they could at RE. People like myself who did the responsible thing and lived below my means, rented a place for less than the interest on a mortgage alone missed out, as people who pickled themselves in debt saw values explode well beyond incomes, rents, and inflation.
Now prices have started to come down, and some reports are saying another 40% until prices make sense again. RBC just released a report that homes are the least affordable they've ever been, even as back as the 80s during the previous bubble. The frustrating thig is that as over extended buyers go bust, it will be the gov't (ie ppl who pay net taxes) who will have to come to the rescue.
It's a shame our entire economy is built like a ponzi scheme. Imagine if there was zero percent inflation. You could just work any job and save for a few years to buy a house, or at least over a 50% down payment on one. You can still somewhat do this, but you'd have to rely on stocks matching inflation (which doesn't seem to happen in democrat administrations) or you yourself become an usurer and buy bonds. It discourages responsibility and encourages a low impulse control, short term thinking mindset, which is exactly what our consumeristic culture and the merchants want.
As I understand, this is not so much about bankruptcy due to defaults on existing loans. It is bankruptcy due to a sharp downturn in new loans. Most mortgage companies initiate a mortgage, collect some fees and points on the loan, then sell the loan. At that point, they've made all the money they're going to make from that loan, and the loan belongs to somebody else from then on.
So, if loan originations are cut in half, mortgage companies' income must be cut in half, which in many cases is enough to bankrupt them.
You are describing 1950s, 60s and 70s America
Unless the Fed pivots, I believe real estate prices will continue to come down. The Fed interest rate is around 4% now with mortgage rates 6 or 7%, realistically they have to hike it even higher to get inflation under control.
They won't.
I talk to others about macro all the time, and one thing I cannot understand is why so few think that my shorting the market with various inverse plays is an obvious and easy money move. We've been in a regime that wants to create a recession or more, it's clearly already here, and even the charts show lower highs and lower lows. Add a real estate, geopolitical or banking black swan and you've got all the reasons in the world to have at least a small short position.
I'm loving it because I'm short, but I do find it astounding that people are ignoring the obvious. Are they overthinking it? It's bizarre.
What are you doing?