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<blockquote data-quote="aynrus" data-source="post: 1459485" data-attributes="member: 20279">I posted before about US 18.5-year real estate cycle.This cycle worked since 1792, and I don&#039;t see why it should stop working now.Other countries most likely have similar cycles, though length might be different - as soon as there&#039;s market economy.US economist who specialized in real estate had discovered US 18-year cycle back in 1930s, after researching old records.It was revisited in the 1970s and it was found that the cycle continued. It had been revisited since, and the cycle apparently continues to work.18.5 year cycle does not mean, of course, that every time it&#039;s the same down to the month. It can be 20 years and 16 years next time, but on average it fluctuates around that number. Full cycle = bull + bear market duration.Last low was in 2013.This means that this bull market can easily continue into 2022 and even up to 2024 in the case of long cycle this time (another thing, the bull leg of the cycle can be longer than bear leg, like was with the last cycle). Plus, the decline isn&#039;t instant and can take years for significant effect to be seen in the bear market. So I don&#039;t think there&#039;s a sure bet on rapid easing of the market for buyers... and then there&#039;s high inflation which guarantees prices won&#039;t go down.Real estate bull markets trigger increased construction, and once too much housing is built, there&#039;s a decline. It also goes along with general economic cycles and Fed rates lately as there&#039;s mortgage industry. Right now, construction has constraints of limited labor availability and materials, there&#039;re still shortages of materials (not to mention they got jacked up in price), which prevents creating more supply.Waiting for reversal can mean more expenses on rent and devaluation of savings by inflation, more than would be saved by buying in the next bear market - especially since bear market does not guarantee big price drop (and 2008 was very likely once-in-a-lifetime event/opportunity) but may simply mean slowed appreciation that doesn&#039;t catch up with inflation. Availability and options definitely should greatly improve, though, once real estate goes into bear market.</blockquote>

[QUOTE="aynrus, post: 1459485, member: 20279"] I posted before about US 18.5-year real estate cycle. This cycle worked since 1792, and I don't see why it should stop working now. Other countries most likely have similar cycles, though length might be different - as soon as there's market economy. US economist who specialized in real estate had discovered US 18-year cycle back in 1930s, after researching old records. It was revisited in the 1970s and it was found that the cycle continued. It had been revisited since, and the cycle apparently continues to work. 18.5 year cycle does not mean, of course, that every time it's the same down to the month. It can be 20 years and 16 years next time, but on average it fluctuates around that number. Full cycle = bull + bear market duration. Last low was in 2013. This means that this bull market can easily continue into 2022 and even up to 2024 in the case of long cycle this time (another thing, the bull leg of the cycle can be longer than bear leg, like was with the last cycle). Plus, the decline isn't instant and can take years for significant effect to be seen in the bear market. So I don't think there's a sure bet on rapid easing of the market for buyers... and then there's high inflation which guarantees prices won't go down. Real estate bull markets trigger increased construction, and once too much housing is built, there's a decline. It also goes along with general economic cycles and Fed rates lately as there's mortgage industry. Right now, construction has constraints of limited labor availability and materials, there're still shortages of materials (not to mention they got jacked up in price), which prevents creating more supply. Waiting for reversal can mean more expenses on rent and devaluation of savings by inflation, more than would be saved by buying in the next bear market - especially since bear market does not guarantee big price drop (and 2008 was very likely once-in-a-lifetime event/opportunity) but may simply mean slowed appreciation that doesn't catch up with inflation. Availability and options definitely should greatly improve, though, once real estate goes into bear market. [/QUOTE]

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