Redbeard's BTC For Beginners Datasheet

Blade Runner

Ostrich
Orthodox
Can someone give a 5-10 year optimistic and pessimistic prediction, and the reasoning behind each? I want to hear what someone deep into crypto has to say (not a newb like myself).

BTC will be 500k-1mil within 5-10 years. Institutions will adopt the heck out of it in the coming year. It will still be volatile, and we might see a big drop one more time before it continues its stepwise fashion of increasing gains and ownership in the japanification clown world.

I don't see a major downside at this point except for those who don't have the balls to weather the volatility storm and news cycle. The system is too entrenched and not at all ganging up on BTC to ever outright "ban" it. It will be regulated and taxed, but when CBDCs start coming out, it'll be the new "cash" transaction of the digital world - people only will notice or have enough energy to "track" you if given a reason, or enough wealth is moved, and they are looking at you simultaneously.
 

JayR

Kingfisher
Atheist
Yeah it is a good thread, and I wished I found it earlier... This ain`t bad either: https://bitcoiner.guide/

I am thinking of the same structure of buying like you do to with Samurai. What I am a bit on the fence about is if a de-googled is needed for this use if I have a 100% dedicated phone only for this use, that is only turned on in public IP-areas.

Currently I have a Ledger Nano X being shipped to me. But I have to say I don`t trust them at all after doing some research... Ledger works with KYC exchanges for staking/swapping and are under French regulations, and are becoming way too mainstream. They log some activity when setting up Ledger Live also...

The whirlpool features on Samurai is just what I need.

Are you only doing HODL or will you also do swapping on a part of your position?
HODL only -- gradual stacking via DCA strategy. I doubt I'll try to jump in and out timing the BTC market -- I've been burnt too many times trying to time the stock market.

I will check out that bitcoiner guide.
 

Jamal D

Woodpecker
Agnostic
Up to you & your relationship with the seller. There's a few things you can do. Probably most straightforward is to keep your cold storage phone at home, then put another wallet on your daily driver phone to receive BTC during the transaction. Then send to Graphene cold storage after.
On your daily phone you can have a watch only wallet.

Perhaps most know this already, but Samourai have a feature called Sentinel you could look into perfectly suited for this. https://docs.samourai.io/sentinel
 

chance vought

Woodpecker
Protestant
Can someone give a 5-10 year optimistic and pessimistic prediction, and the reasoning behind each? I want to hear what someone deep into crypto has to say (not a newb like myself).
The more you study it, the more you will be able to weather the volatility. Always keep learning. I’ve been at it for 18 months, and I like price drops now more than gains, because I know what it is worth in the end, whenever that is. $inifnity/21M.
If BTC dropped to $5k next year, I would sleep just as sound as if it went to $500k. Until your conviction is that strong, just DCA some every so often, or whenever the fear/greed index is below 20 (extreme fear).

The extreme volatility is necessary to get wide distribution, thus decentralization. People get shaken out from the bottoms and the tops, due to psychology. If it only ever went up, no one would ever sell. It’s no good if only a few people have thousands of Bitcoin, it only works if billions of people have fractions of a Bitcoin.

Some of this volatility I think was deliberately engineered by Satoshi partly as a Trojan horse, and partly to get wide distribution in a short time period. The halving cycle: there is no reason it has to be stepped every 4 years, he could have made it a constant rate. Every 4 years though, because the stock to flow increases, there is crazy price action, attracting more people to it. It gets big, government power starts to be threatened, then the price crashes, mainstreamers says it’s dead, and governments forget about it for 4 more years. Then another run up, more people get orange pilled, governments start talking regulation, and it crashes. Each time, there are 10x more people on the network than before, right under the nose of hostile governments. This type of stealth adoption, and distribution/decentralization mechanism is just one of many parts of Bitcoin that are so elegant, it seems almost to good to have been in the mind of one engineer.
 

JayR

Kingfisher
Atheist
Nice post, so Samaurai on a degoogled phone to hold BTC bough from an ATM and use decentralised to buy coins?
That's how I did it, but I had to search for a while to find an ATM that did not require an ID scan, and those are getting harder and harder to find now. The ATM I used required me to enter a verification code sent by SMS to a phone -- so I had to use cash to buy a burner to stay anonymous.

It was fun wearing shades and my COVID mask while working the ATM in this sketchy gas station. I even wore a hoodie -- looked like Dr. Kaczynski!
 

Jamal D

Woodpecker
Agnostic
That's how I did it, but I had to search for a while to find an ATM that did not require an ID scan, and those are getting harder and harder to find now. The ATM I used required me to enter a verification code sent by SMS to a phone -- so I had to use cash to buy a burner to stay anonymous.

It was fun wearing shades and my COVID mask while working the ATM in this sketchy gas station. I even wore a hoodie -- looked like Dr. Kaczynski!
Do you mix your coins when you receive funds to your wallet?
 

JayR

Kingfisher
Atheist
Do you mix your coins when you receive funds to your wallet?
Not yet. I know Samourai wallet offers the Whirlpool feature, but I've been meaning to learn more about it before I give it a try. I know there are fees involved, so I guess what I want to know is... are the privacy advantages worth the fees? If so, what's the mixing frequency sweet spot? After every purchase? Or is that overkill/wasteful?
 

chance vought

Woodpecker
Protestant
Not yet. I know Samourai wallet offers the Whirlpool feature, but I've been meaning to learn more about it before I give it a try. I know there are fees involved, so I guess what I want to know is... are the privacy advantages worth the fees? If so, what's the mixing frequency sweet spot? After every purchase? Or is that overkill/wasteful?
Ideally if you are HODLing, just leave your coins in the whirlpool. The longer they mix the better. You don’t really even need to move them to a hardware wallet as long as you save the samurai backup. If you want to move the coins, you should always mix them and move them post mix.
as far as fees, the bigger the utxo, the higher the fees. If you want 1 utxo for 1 BTC, it is expensive…the .05 BTC pool is not terribly expensive
 

Jamal D

Woodpecker
Agnostic
Not yet. I know Samourai wallet offers the Whirlpool feature, but I've been meaning to learn more about it before I give it a try. I know there are fees involved, so I guess what I want to know is... are the privacy advantages worth the fees? If so, what's the mixing frequency sweet spot? After every purchase? Or is that overkill/wasteful?
It also depends on the work you did before receiving them I think, and your no-KYC game seems solid. You are charged a flat fee for each UTXO so that is also something to think about.

As a newb I am a little confused on how I should/if I should label UTXOs in my wallet and what these labels should be...I know in Samourai mixed coins will not be displayed on the default BTC holdings page, but in a separate window. I currently hold Sparrow for desktop, and Samourai on a Lineage OS phone with no sim in it, but the latter is not in use just yet.
 

Jamal D

Woodpecker
Agnostic
Ideally if you are HODLing, just leave your coins in the whirlpool. The longer they mix the better. You don’t really even need to move them to a hardware wallet as long as you save the samurai backup. If you want to move the coins, you should always mix them and move them post mix.
as far as fees, the bigger the utxo, the higher the fees. If you want 1 utxo for 1 BTC, it is expensive…the .05 BTC pool is not terribly expensive
I have been looking into this Whirlpool option. At this point, for HODL coins I see very little use for it if your coins already are no KYC. The fees for small amounts are way too high. This is a great business model for the developers but a simple coinjoin with no KYC coins when spending seems plenty enough.
 

redbeard

Hummingbird
Catholic
Gold Member
You can mix multiple UTXOs in one mix to save on fees.


For example if you have 1.0 BTC and want to mix it in the 0.5 pool - you only pay 0.0175 BTC for the entire mix, but get 2 individual 0.5 mixes. This brings down the mixing cost to 1.75% for the entire 1.0 BTC.

From a privacy perspective, you have to consider that all incoming UTXOs will be linked, so try to make sure that either a) you don't care or b) they all come from the same source.
 

JayR

Kingfisher
Atheist
So starting on January 1st in the USA, payment providers including PayPal, Venmo, CashApp, and Zelle are all required to report to the IRS any user who transacts $600 or more on their service over the course of the calendar year.

So, using Zelle to pay sellers of BTC I find on Bisq -- which has been the method I've been using to accumulate BTC -- is now going to be tracked by the IRS. (Bisq does permit many other payment methods, but Zelle is by far the most popular -- in fact a search right now shows a total of 12 offers to sell -- all requiring payment via Zelle).

All the Bitcoin ATMs near me are now requiring an ID scan, so that method is out.

Any creative ways around this, or should I not be concerned at all and just continue using Bisq/Zelle and leaving blank the "Memo/For" field? What are the risks?
 
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