Signs of escalation into a World War

911

Peacock
Catholic
Gold Member
^Southeast Russia Muslims:

Circassian_children.jpg


This being said, Putin/Russia has achieved a fine balance between being an Orthodox Christian nation and a civnat Russian culture, compatible with that nation's incredibly vast geography and Christian heritage.
 

Stoyan

Pelican
Orthodox
Don't tell him (or Putin) that southeast Russia is damn near completely Muslim. Basically an Arab state.
Southeast Russia Muslims? What is it, Vladivostok? If not Russian, maybe you could say that it is Chinese, because of their recent immigration to the Far East territories? But not Muslim and definitely not Arab. Buryats are Buddhists and Tengrists.

Now Southwest Russia, specifically the Caucasus region, is the Muslim. These children are Cherkessy or Circassians. They are holding the Circassian flag. They are Muslim Caucasian peoples who live in modern Southwest part of Russia. They used to live in the Don region too, for example the city of Novocherkassk, and they also used to live in what is now the modern state of Ukraine, for example the city of Cherkassy. They were unfortunately genocided by the Zaporozhinan (Kuban) Cossacks during the 18th century, as a result of a land grab of these territories, and unrestrained brutality in war. But I love these people and I feel sorry for them.



There are definitely no Arabs in Russia, and have never been.
 

Yeagerist

Woodpecker
Orthodox Catechumen
Don't tell him (or Putin) that southeast Russia is damn near completely Muslim. Basically an Arab state.
I have no idea that Koreans and Mongols residing in the Russian Far East had formed an Arab state. What u smokin' bruh

Now Southwest Russia, specifically the Caucasus region, is the Muslim. These children are Cherkessy or Circassians. They are holding the Circassian flag. They are Muslim Caucasian peoples who live in modern Southwest part of Russia. They used to live in the Don region too, for example the city of Novocherkassk, and they also used to live in what is now the modern state of Ukraine, for example the city of Cherkassy. They were unfortunately genocided by the Zaporozhinan (Kuban) Cossacks during the 18th century, as a result of a land grab of these territories, and unrestrained brutality in war. But I love these people and I feel sorry for them.
Circassians, Tatars and Chechens look like Europeans that just have peculiar clothing; I did a quick Google of their folk attires and they're very similar to those worn in [other] Asian cultures like Mongolia, Malaysia and Indonesia. This is probably due to Indo-Persian influence.

The men and women in the wedding video you linked have paler complexions than many white people in Anglophone countries. I really find it perplexing and intriguing to think that their folk clothing belongs more to Central or Southeast Asia. They defy common cultural and social categorizing of European vs Asian peoples.
Perhaps this is why Putin's brand of Russian nationalism is not the ethnostate fetish pushed by the Western dissident Right, esp. the NSDAP larpers and the trad Caths.
 

Stoyan

Pelican
Orthodox
Circassians, Tatars and Chechens look like Europeans that just have peculiar clothing; I did a quick Google of their folk attires and they're very similar to those worn in [other] Asian cultures like Mongolia, Malaysia and Indonesia. This is probably due to Indo-Persian influence.

The men and women in the wedding video you linked have paler complexions than many white people in Anglophone countries. I really find it perplexing and intriguing to think that their folk clothing belongs more to Central or Southeast Asia. They defy common cultural and social categorizing of European vs Asian peoples.
Perhaps this is why Putin's brand of Russian nationalism is not the ethnostate fetish pushed by the Western dissident Right, esp. the NSDAP larpers and the trad Caths.

As someone who has studied for multiple years the folk clothing and traditions of Eurasian peoples, I will explain. The clothing of the Caucasian peoples is similar to the traditional clothing of the Russkies, and indeed the Cossacks, who were also Russkies, also took traditional Caucasian clothing, and it has been very popular historically in the Russian Empire, with Tsar Nicholas II wearing it on multiple occasions.

Caucasian clothing for men is a knee length trench coat over a shirt, boots, and fur hat. This is the same as ancient Russki clothing, and Uighur clothing, and Mongolian clothing, and Central Asian clothing, and Sikh clothing, and Polish clothing. All the traditional clothes of the peoples of Eurasia is really very similar. Only the exact style of the trench coat and fur hat of the Caucasians is somewhat different style than the Russki style, but the distinctions have been blurred because of cultural exchange. The children above are wearing the trench coats, but not the fur hats though.

Why do all these Eurasian peoples have the same or very similar clothing? It is because they are all descended from the ancient Aryan civilization! "Aryan" here means a cultural identity of steppe warriors who came from the North of Russia, and conquered almost the entire Eurasia, and brought their culture with them. It is a cultural or civilizational identity, it is not the Western NSDAP larpers. In fact I think that Hitler's biggest crime was that he distorted the "Aryan" identity to mean something else different.

I have researched Svetlana Zharnikova's wonderful lectures. She said that the North Russian language, which is distinct from the modern Russian language, is actually a form of archaic Sanskrit! Norwegian Stave churches look like Thailand Buddhist temples. The Cossacks, Mongols, Circassians, and Sikhs all have identical ancient military horseback riding traditions. They were descended from the Aryans. These are the Indo-Persians that you mentioned.

You have previously asked about Alexander Dugin. Actually the Eurasianism movement was mainly promoted by Lev Gumilyov and and Roman von Ungern Sternberg, who both recognized the myriad of cultural similarities between the Russkies, Mongols, Central Asians, Caucasians, Persians, and Indians. Ungern Sternberg wanted to reunite the great ancient Eurasian civilization, specifically it's most recent reincarnation, what is now known in history as the Mongolian Empire of Ghengis Khan or Great Tartaria, which in turn was a medieval restoration of the ancient Aryan civilization which brought steppe warrior culture to the peoples of Eurasia. And from Scandinavia to Southeast Asia used to be part of a single civilization at one point in history.

You can see my other posts in the Russian Culture Thread.

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911

Peacock
Catholic
Gold Member
Ikhwani scholars like Sayyed Ridda and Hassan al Bannah pre-date 'the CIA' by about 8-5 decades and draw on the teachings of Ibn Taymiyyah (14th century) and anonymous Islamic scholars that lived during or directly after the era of the life of Mohammed. In the late 19th century the leading societal dynamic propelling this revivalist ideology (desire to return to Islamic Golden Age) were the decay and eventually demise of Islamic Empires (mostly Ottomans/Mughals and to lesser extent Qajaris/Central Asian Khanates like Khiva and Bukhara)

...Furthermore allArab and African societies are kept in check by bloodthirsty and sadistic secret services who are happy to tally up their kill count - and that doesn't change overnight because of the CIAs (overblown) involvement or not. If anything the Syrian Mukharabat+ Air Force Intelligence were probably the most cruel of the entire region. The Ikhwani movement by far predates the CIA and has its ideological structure based on 14th centuries of Islamic jurisprudence and theology - and the same goes for any other 'terror group' that you talk about. That doesn't rule out any cooperation between the two but it's nowhere near the level you are suggesting.


Hence the current US re-engagement in the Middle East is big (and comes only 1-2 years after all the grifter analysts said that they would pivot away from this area) and its moves on Egypt a sign that they are not going to let go without a fight and remain the main player in the region.


You're wrong about the Muslim Brotherhood, it is basically a masonic organization, set up in Cairo along the same lines as the Wahhabis in Arabia, as a tool for control and as the seed for destruction of Islamic culture from within, not unlike how Dispensationalism was set up, roughly at the same time (and by the same people), to subvert and control Protestantism.

This approach was no different than the current more recent approach of building up islamic terror groups like ISIS or AQ. The CIA took over from British intelligence after WW2 and stuck with the same gameplan.

Ridda and Al Bannah were both freemasons, one cue about the Muslim Brotherhood is the term of brotherhood itself (as in the French masonic motto of liberty-equality-fraternity). As well Ridda is closely connected with Blavatsky. These aren't exactly islamic purists.



 

Stoyan

Pelican
Orthodox
Perhaps this is why Putin's brand of Russian nationalism is not the ethnostate fetish pushed by the Western dissident Right, esp. the NSDAP larpers and the trad Caths.
This what you called "Putin's brand of Russian nationalism" actually goes back thousands of years. It is civilizational identity. One particular tribe or nationality or ethnicity united all the other tribes, creating a unique civilziation. So you end up with an "imperial" culture which has a wide umbrella of sub-cultures. The Han people created the Chinese civilization, also including Manchus, Miao, and others. The Ruski people created the Russian civilization, also including other Eurasian peoples. This was also the case of the Ancient Aryan civilization, also known as Hyberborea, Tartaria, etc.

In this video you can see a sampling of the different Russian sub-cultures. You can see a great variety of clothings and dancing styles. Although I think that we can clearly see many similarities between these different sub-cultures, which go back thousands of years. For example the men are always wearing boots, kosovorotka looking shirts, some kind of coats, fur hats, in different styles, but they don't wear red nike shoes, T shirts, addidas tracksuit or baseball hats. The kosovorotka looking shirts sometimes are very long, can go down to the knees even, but the men never wore female skirts or gay clothing.

It is worth noting that the clothing of these dancers is modern version, meaning more colorful and vibrant than people could have historically been able to create, because lack of modern dyes or textiles, so an upgraded version of traditional clothing. If we can make such clothing at small scale, why we cannot make such clothing in big scale all over Russia? Modern textile industry makes possible the mass production of upgraded versions of traditional clothing. Why instead the textile industries of the world are producing the western clothing, the nike and addidas, or imitations of it? They found something "worthy" of imitation?! Why doesn't Russia yet have it's own textile industry for producing traditional clothing for it's citizens to wear? Ok, Russia backwards country. But China, why does the Chinese textile industry produce [inserted swear word for emphasis only] T shirts for it's own citizens to wear. The Hanfu movement is a minority in China. And you see people wearing the western clothing in China.

It's the thing all over. We have good technology, but we use it to produce manure instead of good things. The textile industry is used to produce T shirts instead of kosovorotkas or what have you. The computer or cell phones industry is used to produce Facebook, TikTok, etc instead of educational materials. Modern pigments and paints are used to produce abstract art instead of realistic and elaborate art. Modern building technologies are used to produce borg cubes instead of upgraded versions of traditional architecture. All the technologies are used for wrong purposes. So it's not Russia which is a backwards country, is it? It is the whole entire planet!

Excuse me for my rant.

 

911

Peacock
Catholic
Gold Member
1-countries-scaled-to-economic-aid-from-usa-a800.jpg



Yes Egypt (along with many countries in the region like Saudi Arabia) trades and remains on friendly terms with many factions.

But Egypt has been a huge project of the GAE for a long time. You don't hold the #2 spot on the US aid list out of just "good will."
Now, if America were to make some moves in some other nations in the mideast, yes I would call that a "re-engagement."

It's also easy to get someone to say nice things about you when you've been paying them for years, so I'd expect to hear positive Egyptian spin on this, and perhaps even some results, either real or faked by the Egyptians who have surely learned to feed the US what it wants to hear, but other nations are not so easily bought.

The real size of Israeli aid is closer to $10 billion, much bigger than the rest of the US foreign aid combined. Trump hinted that much, stating that "they get much more than that" referring to the $3-$4B/year official number as a low underrcount. A lot of this aid is in the form of newish US military hardware that gets written off as scrap grade and gets shipped to Israel.

Those types of accounting scams were put in place 30 years ago by rabbi Dov Zackheim, who run the Pentagon's budget as the Undersecretary of Defense/Comptroller. You can bet that a lot of the $2.3 Trillion that was unaccounted for in the Pentagon's budget went towards arming Israel. Zackheim was also one of the architects of the 9/11 inside job.


As to Egypt, the fact that most of their foreign imports go towards oil and wheat puts Russia in a position where they could retake the old Soviet role as that country's protector. As well China is making inroads into Egypt, with large investments into infrastructure and industrial projects like the New Suez City. The US aid package is mainly military.
 

Yeagerist

Woodpecker
Orthodox Catechumen
wrong about the Muslim Brotherhood, it is basically a masonic organization, set up in Cairo along the same lines as the Wahhabis in Arabia, as a tool for control and as the seed for destruction of Islamic culture from within, not unlike how Dispensationalism was set up, roughly at the same time (and by the same people), to subvert and control Protestantism.

This approach was no different than the current more recent approach of building up islamic terror groups like ISIS or AQ. The CIA took over from British intelligence after WW2 and stuck with the same gameplan.

Ridda and Al Bannah were both freemasons, one cue about the Muslim Brotherhood is the term of brotherhood itself (as in the French masonic motto of liberty-equality-fraternity). As well Ridda is closely connected with Blavatsky. These aren't exactly islamic purists.
So this is a psyop meant to drive a wedge between Christian conservatives (Protestants) and Muslims in the early 00's beginning with 9-11 as the latter group leaned Republican at that time, as well as to rile up the former to support Zionism and the neocon invasions.

types of accounting scams were put in place 30 years ago by rabbi Dov Zackheim, who run the Pentagon's budget as the Undersecretary of Defense/Comptroller. You can bet that a lot of the $2.3 Trillion that was unaccounted for in the Pentagon's budget went towards arming Israel. Zackheim was also one of the architects of the 9/11 inside job.
They're truly parasites. With that staggering amount of money (and much more going to the military-industrial complex and the oil cartels) most of America's domestic economic problems could have been readily solved.

As to Egypt, the fact that most of their foreign imports go towards oil and wheat puts Russia in a position where they could retake the old Soviet role as that country's protector. As well China is making inroads into Egypt, with large investments into infrastructure and industrial projects like the New Suez City. The US aid package is mainly military.
At least Russia still has some economic leeway to avoid completely collapsing from the sanctions imposed by the West.
 

Papist

Kingfisher
Trad Catholic
The real size of Israeli aid is closer to $10 billion, much bigger than the rest of the US foreign aid combined. Trump hinted that much, stating that "they get much more than that" referring to the $3-$4B/year official number as a low underrcount. A lot of this aid is in the form of newish US military hardware that gets written off as scrap grade and gets shipped to Israel.

Those types of accounting scams were put in place 30 years ago by rabbi Dov Zackheim, who run the Pentagon's budget as the Undersecretary of Defense/Comptroller. You can bet that a lot of the $2.3 Trillion that was unaccounted for in the Pentagon's budget went towards arming Israel. Zackheim was also one of the architects of the 9/11 inside job.


As to Egypt, the fact that most of their foreign imports go towards oil and wheat puts Russia in a position where they could retake the old Soviet role as that country's protector. As well China is making inroads into Egypt, with large investments into infrastructure and industrial projects like the New Suez City. The US aid package is mainly military.

How other folk don't see that amazes me. I mean, Larry Silverstein bought the complex a few months before it the attack and had it 'refurbished'. He's on tape claiming he had a dermatologist appointment that morning, so wasn't where he usually would have been - in a restaurant at the top.

We really are lied to on a monumental scale, and this war is another example. The Ukrainian and Russian soldiers are just pawns, and this whole things has been engineered by TPTB. Lord have mercy!
 

Yeagerist

Woodpecker
Orthodox Catechumen
As someone who has studied for multiple years the folk clothing and traditions of Eurasian peoples, I will explain. The clothing of the Caucasian peoples is similar to the traditional clothing of the Russkies, and indeed the Cossacks, who were also Russkies, also took traditional Caucasian clothing, and it has been very popular historically in the Russian Empire, with Tsar Nicholas II wearing it on multiple occasions.

Caucasian clothing for men is a knee length trench coat over a shirt, boots, and fur hat. This is the same as ancient Russki clothing, and Uighur clothing, and Mongolian clothing, and Central Asian clothing, and Sikh clothing, and Polish clothing. All the traditional clothes of the peoples of Eurasia is really very similar. Only the exact style of the trench coat and fur hat of the Caucasians is somewhat different style than the Russki style, but the distinctions have been blurred because of cultural exchange. The children above are wearing the trench coats, but not the fur hats though.

Why do all these Eurasian peoples have the same or very similar clothing? It is because they are all descended from the ancient Aryan civilization! "Aryan" here means a cultural identity of steppe warriors who came from the North of Russia, and conquered almost the entire Eurasia, and brought their culture with them. It is a cultural or civilizational identity, it is not the Western NSDAP larpers. In fact I think that Hitler's biggest crime was that he distorted the "Aryan" identity to mean something else different.

I have researched Svetlana Zharnikova's wonderful lectures. She said that the North Russian language, which is distinct from the modern Russian language, is actually a form of archaic Sanskrit! Norwegian Stave churches look like Thailand Buddhist temples. The Cossacks, Mongols, Circassians, and Sikhs all have identical ancient military horseback riding traditions. They were descended from the Aryans. These are the Indo-Persians that you mentioned.

You have previously asked about Alexander Dugin. Actually the Eurasianism movement was mainly promoted by Lev Gumilyov and and Roman von Ungern Sternberg, who both recognized the myriad of cultural similarities between the Russkies, Mongols, Central Asians, Caucasians, Persians, and Indians. Ungern Sternberg wanted to reunite the great ancient Eurasian civilization, specifically it's most recent reincarnation, what is now known in history as the Mongolian Empire of Ghengis Khan or Great Tartaria, which in turn was a medieval restoration of the ancient Aryan civilization which brought steppe warrior culture to the peoples of Eurasia. And from Scandinavia to Southeast Asia used to be part of a single civilization at one point in history.

You can see my other posts in the Russian Culture Thread.

First


Second


Third

This will take a while for me to digest all of this, since this is a whole semester's worth of anthropology or geography content.

I really think that the Western dissident Right shouldn't judge Russian nationalism by the reductionist labels of "multiculturalism" or "diversity" since there are many historical and geographic factors that aren't applicable in Western Europe or North America. While England, France, Spain and Germany arose as nation-states in the 1600's-1800's Russia went the other way of being an "empire" in the Greco-Roman sense of the term, encompassing many ethnic groups and languages under the rule of an Orthodox Emperor (Tsar), due to the influence of the Eastern Roman Empire and Russia's status as the "Third Rome" after the fall of Constantinople.

The Eurasian lands which Russia eventually conquered, namely, the Ukrainian plain, the Caucasus Mountains, Central Asia and Siberia, these regions were bound to be "melting pots" of various cultures and ethnicities mixing together simply because of their location as historical routes of the Silk Road and natural habitats of steppe peoples like Mongols and Turks.

The "Stan" countries of Central Asia, which speak languages in the same family as the Anatolian Turks, are populated by people which I would describe as having the "hapa" look, which is a term referring to white-Asian mixed children living in the West.

The general appearance of peoples like Armenians, Circassians, Chechens, Levantines and the like, fit the beauty standards of Western white peoples. That's why a lot of models wanted to look like the Kardashians or the Hadid sisters, for example, because they look "different" enough from the regular Anglo-Saxon or Germanic look but could still pass as "white"
 

Stoyan

Pelican
Orthodox
I really think that the Western dissident Right shouldn't judge Russian nationalism by the reductionist labels of "multiculturalism" or "diversity" since there are many historical and geographic factors that aren't applicable in Western Europe or North America. While England, France, Spain and Germany arose as nation-states in the 1600's-1800's Russia went the other way of being an "empire" in the Greco-Roman sense of the term, encompassing many ethnic groups and languages under the rule of an Orthodox Emperor (Tsar), due to the influence of the Eastern Roman Empire and Russia's status as the "Third Rome" after the fall of Constantinople.
Perhaps another analogy to understand the Russian civilization, from a European point of view, would be the Austro-Hungarian Empire.

This will take a while for me to digest all of this, since this is a whole semester's worth of anthropology or geography content.
Keep in mind, you definitely won't find this information in a university's semester.

 

Rocha

Ostrich
Gold Member
I have no idea that Koreans and Mongols residing in the Russian Far East had formed an Arab state. What u smokin' bruh


Circassians, Tatars and Chechens look like Europeans that just have peculiar clothing; I did a quick Google of their folk attires and they're very similar to those worn in [other] Asian cultures like Mongolia, Malaysia and Indonesia. This is probably due to Indo-Persian influence.

The men and women in the wedding video you linked have paler complexions than many white people in Anglophone countries. I really find it perplexing and intriguing to think that their folk clothing belongs more to Central or Southeast Asia. They defy common cultural and social categorizing of European vs Asian peoples.
Perhaps this is why Putin's brand of Russian nationalism is not the ethnostate fetish pushed by the Western dissident Right, esp. the NSDAP larpers and the trad Caths.
Tatars unless mixed with white/slav are Mongolian looking.
 

La Águila Negra

 
Banned
Other Christian
It took the "Lusitania" to pull America into WW1, pearl harbor for WW2, gulf of tonkin fo Vietnam, etc, etc... So why would China be deifferent ??
In order for them to change from "non-intervention" (as you wrote) to more active/assertive position they also need some kind of big incident to shake/wake the society. It was my point.
China's political system is a One Party State where power structures are structured in such a way that the majority of Chinese citizens (ie. the 1.3 billion non-Party members) have no say or voice in the political system. Furthermore the ~100 million Party members that do technically have a voice are practically sidelined as the CCP mainly functions in top-bottom Nomenklatura fashion much like the Soviet Union. In other words power is centered around the Secretary General (Xi Jinping), the Politburo, the National Party and the Central Party Congress and is from thereon delegated downwards. Those are at best ~3500 people.

This system has been in place for 7+ decades already and has resulted in a totalitarian society that in the last two decades has started resembling fascism more than Maoism. Civil rights/ civil society do not exist, and that mass of 1.4 billion Chinese is politically powerless yet prefers this system as they have high levels of trust in those lording over them (partly due to successful economic policies and partly due to incessant (nationalist) propaganda). The majority simply doesn't not care about politics - it is not a major issue. Unless the CCP tells them to care of course, then they do. Point in case: the HK riots in 2019. People in Mainland China didn't know about it and if they did simply didn't care. Add to that their collectivist history and submissive mindset and it should become clear that in the case of increased Chinese engagement outside China's borders the CCP will simply communicate this to their population and the Chinese will follow. No need to fabricate anything.


China has been getting increasingly assertive as of late (the explanation is very long), something which was long overdue. Assuming that Ukraine is the beginning of a new diffused global war between China and the US (and the former has always been the main target), this will trend will increase in vigor. The nuclear backstop will keep the conventional conflicts limited in time and space which will register as 'spikes'. Kinetic, cyber, biological and financial crises will be the weapons of choice. The war will continue till a 'fair world order' arises (Lavrov's terminology), or until the US+ allies are able to 1. engineer collapses in China (+ Russia) or 2. can effectively bring both to their knees through containment.

US hegemony is based on control of global finance in general, and the use of the (fiat) USD as global reserve in particular. Even though the military situation in Ukraine (ie exacting huge costs on Russia+ loss of face) + renewed vassalage of the EU + reviving of dysfunctional NATO supersedes all held expectations, Washington has made the cardinal error of corrupting the so-called 'international' finance system in the pursuit of geopolitical aims. The other major economic players (Brazil, India, ME, etc.) do not approve of this and this could accelerate the de-dollarization trend as even US allies realize that they are vulnerable. Because in the end the USD as the global reserve currency is as much based on trust as it on the US military imposing its will on those breaking rank.

The trajectory was and is therefor clear. Multipolarism with either 1. China taking over from the US as main economic and political center and in general a shift eastwards, or 2. the US and China balancing each other out terms of power. It would be stupid to think the US+ allies wouldn't try sabotaging China's rise - in fact they are doing it right now and the first round goes to DC uncontested. The privileged will fight for their privileges. The goal is still simple: severe any Russian strategic links to Europe, build an invisible Berlin Wall as far East as possible for Russia and bog it down inflicting maximum pain, then engage viciously against China to boot it out from Western markets by creating replacements in the global supply chain, starving China's manufacturing, in tandem with an effective tech transfer blockade on top of the usual military harassments toolkit (primarily around Taiwan but also elsewhere).

WeChat Image_20220604001216.jpg
Up until very recently the Chinese preferred a mercantilist/isolationist foreign policy, which basically centered around pulling other countries into their sphere of influence through investment, creating economic interdependence (Belt and Road Initiative), so-called 'debt traps' and in general avoiding conflict. Obviously this is silly thinking and bound to fail, as at the end of the day power always comes out of the barrel of a gun (Mao quote so they of all people should know). As seen in the case of Ukraine, being someone's main trading partner does not necessarily pull the junior partner into a strong allegiance structure vs. the on paper dominant country. Putin's policy of creating European energy dependence failed, and hence China's policy of solving the Taiwan issue through economically roping the latter in didn't work either, as Taiwan- PRC diplomatic efforts to resolve the conflict peacefully were scuttled by the US sponsored and orchestrated 2014 Sunflower Revolution. The difference between Xi and Putin however is that Xi is a realist and able to turn around clearly faltering policy decisions. But that's only a start. Does the Chinese leadership have the guts to go on the offensive? It seems that when faced with a choice between taking immediate action or keeping it cool and play the long game, they always go for the latter option. There are signs that the Chinese now understand that there is a limit to playing the long game but for now it's too early to tell. You can ignore one slap, two slaps, three slaps in the face, but you can't ignore a full body takedown. The Americans will make sure of that.

Point in case. China's recent diplomatic frenzy (Wang Yi's tour) in the Pacific as they are looking to challenge the US+ allies. However the Chinese backed down from the stated desire to construct a military basis in the Solomon Islands after US+ Australia bluntly said that they would hinder such an endeavor by military means.

photo_2022-05-26_22-08-52.jpg


China played their cards right, unlike Russia, and they were very smart to get to where they're today. Their post February 23 policy and attitude has been sly and hypocritical - but to their own benefits. It's increasingly clear that Russia has become the junior partner in the Russia-China relation, with the latter talking big but so far covertly appreciating the situation as Russia's increasingly isolated position and arrested economy will mean a weaker negotiation position vis a vis Beijing and hence near unrestricted access to Russian resources. The Chinese are all about hydro-carbon deals and securing their Western border, and see Russia as a giant landmass that can help them develop the Chinese Dream. All the 'friends 4ever' bluster should be considered just that, bluster. The Chinese couldn't care less about Russian culture, tradition, language or people. This is a scenario Russia has been trying to avoid for decades, as can be seen from its Greater Europe Initiative and their past diplomatic efforts to balance East vs. West.

With that said, the difficulty level for the Chinese will increase progressively. A massive problem they face is their 1. diplomatic standing. China is a hobo nation, in the sense that they don't command allegiance structures, nor have the expertise, nor have shown the willingness to engage in bloc confrontation and learn how those are managed, and fought over. Their only serious attempt that comes anywhere close to mirroring the US controlled organizations is the SCO - but that club is more like ASEAN and still decades from being formed into solid robust group ready to confront. The US Empire on the other hand controls a big fat bloc and will confront any challenger with that big fat bloc. China can't escape from it, just like Russia couldn't. 42 countries and nearly 50 percent of the world economy moving in cohesion is a mightily big obstacle.

Then there is 2. Taiwan. The Chinese are not ready to take over Taiwan. Not by a long shot. And they're also deluded if they think the Taiwanese elite will relinquish sovereign power to them peacefully. Hence they have a problem as the Empire is prepping the stage for conflict in Taiwan - with the US is on a tight schedule as their internal reports indicate that the window of opportunity for confronting China will close around 2025- 2026. This can be read in RAND reports on the issue, of which War with China - Thinking the Unthinkable is the most important.

WeChat Image_20220604004224.jpg

Hence China is changing gears, especially in the Pacific Theater. Coddling the empire, trying to 'lay low' has run its course. The Empire literally tells you every day they consider China an existential threat to their hegemony - even 'Beijing Biden' (that nickname never much sense anyway) was recently wheeled out for some warhawk-y statements on the US defending Taiwan. They can't avoid what's cooking. Russia was #1 roadblock and as we can see, and they've manufactured a split out of the blue in just 8 years (obviously more in the making as part of a larger grand strategy but for the sake of illustration). China is next and Taiwan is clearly the low hanging fruit. Impasse in the first 'trade war' doesn't mean there will be impasse in the second or third flashpoint, and it's coming.

The next problem is 3. Russia. There are signs that the Chinese are getting increasingly worried by Russia's military performance, and how it will effect China. On May 10 former PRC ambassador to Ukraine and prominent Russia/SU expert Gao Yusheng spoke to the Chinese Academy of Social Science (CASS), an important CCP policy center. The speech was supposed to be held in private but one Chinese newspaper published the speech (not by accident of course) after which it got taken down within hours. In his speech Gao gives a damning assessment of Russia's military capabilities and leadership, and speculates on a Russian collapse and how China should prepare for it.

The entire speech can be read here.


Another indicator is the Chinese increased financial support for Russia. Notice how they are trying to skirt around (secondary) sanctions. Dead scared of the hurting themselves. Not exactly a sign of either strength or friendship. Many other economic issues tie into this topic but there is no need for expanding on this as the US faces similar disadvantages. And in the end it's about the USD as global reserve currency and not the well-being or economic standing of xyz country's citizens - the inhabitants of either one could be dirt poor with Empire status intact for that matter. (Geo-)Politics is and has always been an elite game. Mango Press is unofficial CCP media for what it's worth.

WeChat Image_20220603224123.jpg

The Chinese better learn from Putin's mistakes. They are next on the list. A world power cannot be reactive and indolent in nature.
 

Yeagerist

Woodpecker
Orthodox Catechumen
Perhaps another analogy to understand the Russian civilization, from a European point of view, would be the Austro-Hungarian Empire.
Or even just the Christian Roman Empire (Byzantium), which the Russian Tsars sought to emulate. Around a third of the Empire's territory in the mid-500's (at the end of Justinian's reign) was comprised of non-European speakers, yet they were considered to be Roman, and thus civilized, in contrast to the Germanic barbarians that took over the western provinces.
Roman Empire Linguistic Map 6th Century 1.png
As for the Hapsburg Empire, the last Kaiser Karl dreamed of the so-called United States of Greater Austria which would bind the various ethnic groups together under the banner of the imperium based in Vienna, if not for the Great War.

Keep in mind, you definitely won't find this information in a university's semester.
Well in the sense that it would take the equivalent of an entire university semester course to fully study this topic. I never expected Western academia to teach anything other than the approved Marxist/politically correct "woke" Zeitgeist. Even in my country, the major universities promote Marxism and historical revisionism, discrediting my country's Hispanic heritage under the evil label of "colonialism" and pedestalize the Masonic revolutionaries who rebelled against Spain and the Catholic monarchical order.

Hence China is changing gears, especially in the Pacific Theater. Coddling the empire, trying to 'lay low' has run its course. The Empire literally tells you every day they consider China an existential threat to their hegemony - even 'Beijing Biden' (that nickname never much sense anyway) was recently wheeled out for some warhawk-y statements on the US defending Taiwan. They can't avoid what's cooking. Russia was #1 roadblock and as we can see, and they've manufactured a split out of the blue in just 8 years (obviously more in the making as part of a larger grand strategy but for the sake of illustration). China is next and Taiwan is clearly the low hanging fruit. Impasse in the first 'trade war' doesn't mean there will be impasse in the second or third flashpoint, and it's coming.
At this point, the CCP will be smart enough to reconsider invading Taiwan esp. in light of the sanctions slapped on Russia. In fact, I foresee an unwritten compromise between Beijing and Washington over Taiwan being left alone in exchange for China to take the spoils over a Russian collapse.

The next problem is 3. Russia. There are signs that the Chinese are getting increasingly worried by Russia's military performance, and how it will effect China. On May 10 former PRC ambassador to Ukraine and prominent Russia/SU expert Gao Yusheng spoke to the Chinese Academy of Social Science (CASS), an important CCP policy center. The speech was supposed to be held in private but one Chinese newspaper published the speech (not by accident of course) after which it got taken down within hours. In his speech Gao gives a damning assessment of Russia's military capabilities and leadership, and speculates on a Russian collapse and how China should prepare for it.
Following on my previous point, China is already eyeing the resource-rich Russian Far East, pouring investments into oligarch-controlled infras in Vladivostok, and there's a fair number of Chinese laborers manning the old Soviet-era collective farms.

As a tangent, the Korean Peninsula is also a point of contention as both powers try to court North Korea and, indirectly, seek to steer Korean reunification towards an anti-Western, or at least a neutrally aligned unified Korea. Imagine a hypothetical oil and gas pipeline from Vladivostok to Seoul, or overland routes connecting Korea to Russian and European markets. It's in the best interest of the U.S. neocons to keep Korea divided to maintain the justification for keeping U.S. troops. And from what I read about Korean domestic policies, the kimchi people are willing to side with China or Russia if it means gaining an upper hand against their old rival to the east, Japan.
 

911

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China's political system is a One Party State where power structures are structured in such a way that the majority of Chinese citizens (ie. the 1.3 billion non-Party members) have no say or voice in the political system. Furthermore the ~100 million Party members that do technically have a voice are practically sidelined as the CCP mainly functions in top-bottom Nomenklatura fashion much like the Soviet Union. In other words power is centered around the Secretary General (Xi Jinping), the Politburo, the National Party and the Central Party Congress and is from thereon delegated downwards. Those are at best ~3500 people.

This system has been in place for 7+ decades already and has resulted in a totalitarian society that in the last two decades has started resembling fascism more than Maoism. Civil rights/ civil society do not exist, and that mass of 1.4 billion Chinese is politically powerless yet prefers this system as they have high levels of trust in those lording over them (partly due to successful economic policies and partly due to incessant (nationalist) propaganda). The majority simply doesn't not care about politics - it is not a major issue. Unless the CCP tells them to care of course, then they do. Point in case: the HK riots in 2019. People in Mainland China didn't know about it and if they did simply didn't care. Add to that their collectivist history and submissive mindset and it should become clear that in the case of increased Chinese engagement outside China's borders the CCP will simply communicate this to their population and the Chinese will follow. No need to fabricate anything.


China has been getting increasingly assertive as of late (the explanation is very long), something which was long overdue. Assuming that Ukraine is the beginning of a new diffused global war between China and the US (and the former has always been the main target), this will trend will increase in vigor. The nuclear backstop will keep the conventional conflicts limited in time and space which will register as 'spikes'. Kinetic, cyber, biological and financial crises will be the weapons of choice. The war will continue till a 'fair world order' arises (Lavrov's terminology), or until the US+ allies are able to 1. engineer collapses in China (+ Russia) or 2. can effectively bring both to their knees through containment.

US hegemony is based on control of global finance in general, and the use of the (fiat) USD as global reserve in particular. Even though the military situation in Ukraine (ie exacting huge costs on Russia+ loss of face) + renewed vassalage of the EU + reviving of dysfunctional NATO supersedes all held expectations, Washington has made the cardinal error of corrupting the so-called 'international' finance system in the pursuit of geopolitical aims. The other major economic players (Brazil, India, ME, etc.) do not approve of this and this could accelerate the de-dollarization trend as even US allies realize that they are vulnerable. Because in the end the USD as the global reserve currency is as much based on trust as it on the US military imposing its will on those breaking rank.

The trajectory was and is therefor clear. Multipolarism with either 1. China taking over from the US as main economic and political center and in general a shift eastwards, or 2. the US and China balancing each other out terms of power. It would be stupid to think the US+ allies wouldn't try sabotaging China's rise - in fact they are doing it right now and the first round goes to DC uncontested. The privileged will fight for their privileges. The goal is still simple: severe any Russian strategic links to Europe, build an invisible Berlin Wall as far East as possible for Russia and bog it down inflicting maximum pain, then engage viciously against China to boot it out from Western markets by creating replacements in the global supply chain, starving China's manufacturing, in tandem with an effective tech transfer blockade on top of the usual military harassments toolkit (primarily around Taiwan but also elsewhere).

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Up until very recently the Chinese preferred a mercantilist/isolationist foreign policy, which basically centered around pulling other countries into their sphere of influence through investment, creating economic interdependence (Belt and Road Initiative), so-called 'debt traps' and in general avoiding conflict. Obviously this is silly thinking and bound to fail, as at the end of the day power always comes out of the barrel of a gun (Mao quote so they of all people should know). As seen in the case of Ukraine, being someone's main trading partner does not necessarily pull the junior partner into a strong allegiance structure vs. the on paper dominant country. Putin's policy of creating European energy dependence failed, and hence China's policy of solving the Taiwan issue through economically roping the latter in didn't work either, as Taiwan- PRC diplomatic efforts to resolve the conflict peacefully were scuttled by the US sponsored and orchestrated 2014 Sunflower Revolution. The difference between Xi and Putin however is that Xi is a realist and able to turn around clearly faltering policy decisions. But that's only a start. Does the Chinese leadership have the guts to go on the offensive? It seems that when faced with a choice between taking immediate action or keeping it cool and play the long game, they always go for the latter option. There are signs that the Chinese now understand that there is a limit to playing the long game but for now it's too early to tell. You can ignore one slap, two slaps, three slaps in the face, but you can't ignore a full body takedown. The Americans will make sure of that.

Point in case. China's recent diplomatic frenzy (Wang Yi's tour) in the Pacific as they are looking to challenge the US+ allies. However the Chinese backed down from the stated desire to construct a military basis in the Solomon Islands after US+ Australia bluntly said that they would hinder such an endeavor by military means.

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China played their cards right, unlike Russia, and they were very smart to get to where they're today. Their post February 23 policy and attitude has been sly and hypocritical - but to their own benefits. It's increasingly clear that Russia has become the junior partner in the Russia-China relation, with the latter talking big but so far covertly appreciating the situation as Russia's increasingly isolated position and arrested economy will mean a weaker negotiation position vis a vis Beijing and hence near unrestricted access to Russian resources. The Chinese are all about hydro-carbon deals and securing their Western border, and see Russia as a giant landmass that can help them develop the Chinese Dream. All the 'friends 4ever' bluster should be considered just that, bluster. The Chinese couldn't care less about Russian culture, tradition, language or people. This is a scenario Russia has been trying to avoid for decades, as can be seen from its Greater Europe Initiative and their past diplomatic efforts to balance East vs. West.

With that said, the difficulty level for the Chinese will increase progressively. A massive problem they face is their 1. diplomatic standing. China is a hobo nation, in the sense that they don't command allegiance structures, nor have the expertise, nor have shown the willingness to engage in bloc confrontation and learn how those are managed, and fought over. Their only serious attempt that comes anywhere close to mirroring the US controlled organizations is the SCO - but that club is more like ASEAN and still decades from being formed into solid robust group ready to confront. The US Empire on the other hand controls a big fat bloc and will confront any challenger with that big fat bloc. China can't escape from it, just like Russia couldn't. 42 countries and nearly 50 percent of the world economy moving in cohesion is a mightily big obstacle.

Then there is 2. Taiwan. The Chinese are not ready to take over Taiwan. Not by a long shot. And they're also deluded if they think the Taiwanese elite will relinquish sovereign power to them peacefully. Hence they have a problem as the Empire is prepping the stage for conflict in Taiwan - with the US is on a tight schedule as their internal reports indicate that the window of opportunity for confronting China will close around 2025- 2026. This can be read in RAND reports on the issue, of which War with China - Thinking the Unthinkable is the most important.

View attachment 42401

Hence China is changing gears, especially in the Pacific Theater. Coddling the empire, trying to 'lay low' has run its course. The Empire literally tells you every day they consider China an existential threat to their hegemony - even 'Beijing Biden' (that nickname never much sense anyway) was recently wheeled out for some warhawk-y statements on the US defending Taiwan. They can't avoid what's cooking. Russia was #1 roadblock and as we can see, and they've manufactured a split out of the blue in just 8 years (obviously more in the making as part of a larger grand strategy but for the sake of illustration). China is next and Taiwan is clearly the low hanging fruit. Impasse in the first 'trade war' doesn't mean there will be impasse in the second or third flashpoint, and it's coming.

The next problem is 3. Russia. There are signs that the Chinese are getting increasingly worried by Russia's military performance, and how it will effect China. On May 10 former PRC ambassador to Ukraine and prominent Russia/SU expert Gao Yusheng spoke to the Chinese Academy of Social Science (CASS), an important CCP policy center. The speech was supposed to be held in private but one Chinese newspaper published the speech (not by accident of course) after which it got taken down within hours. In his speech Gao gives a damning assessment of Russia's military capabilities and leadership, and speculates on a Russian collapse and how China should prepare for it.

The entire speech can be read here.


Another indicator is the Chinese increased financial support for Russia. Notice how they are trying to skirt around (secondary) sanctions. Dead scared of the hurting themselves. Not exactly a sign of either strength or friendship. Many other economic issues tie into this topic but there is no need for expanding on this as the US faces similar disadvantages. And in the end it's about the USD as global reserve currency and not the well-being or economic standing of xyz country's citizens - the inhabitants of either one could be dirt poor with Empire status intact for that matter. (Geo-)Politics is and has always been an elite game. Mango Press is unofficial CCP media for what it's worth.

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The Chinese better learn from Putin's mistakes. They are next on the list. A world power cannot be reactive and indolent in nature.

Many of your assessments are fundamentally wrong, as is Gao's assessment on Russia's Ukraine campaign. Russia is winning the war on the ground, they are obliterating Ukrainian positions in the Donbas and inflicting losses of 500+/day with much smaller losses on their side. Most of the Ukrianians killed are taken out through artillery bombardment, as opposed to close military engagements as was the case in March or April.

Russia will emerge from this stronger, not weaker, fine-tuning their military tech and fielding the most experienced army among all main powers. Russia is now the only major army with significant experience in largescale land warfare against another army (real army, as opposed to groups of goat herders). And they're still 10 years ahead of the US in terms of hypersonic missiles and underwater drones propelled by MHD technology, which means that Russia will be able to win straight up vs NATO in a conventional escalation by sinking most US carriers.

China is a bit further ahead of the US in that field, once they master it, they will be able to take over Taiwan with relative ease. The US/Japan etc cannot defend the island if their fleets have to stay well outside the range of hypersonic missiles. They will not do that though because they don't want a full economic blockade, but within 10 years they will be able to sustain such a blackade, with the economic and industrial power of the West further declining due to energy shortages, high inflation, social strife and self-imposed Cult of Gaia economic harm.

Russia is also winning the economic war. The Ruble has proved to be unassailable, them holding the trump cards of gas and oil, metals and grains, upstream resources without which economies of countries like Germany or Italy cannot operate. Russia is actually getting richer from the sanctions, its oil and gas revenues are nearly $1 billion per day, record highs, and they have no debt with (so much for their corrupt leaders!), Russia can sustain a long war without damaging its economy.

China doens't need to provide financial assistance to Russia, all they need to do is buy up its oil, which they, along with other countries like India have been doing in spades, not to mention Russian oil being mixed in and sold off to the rest of the world via Greek shippers.

Russia's economic position has actually strengthened through the war, contrary to what Gao said, taking over most of the black earth Ukrainian belt and all of their ports (Odessa will fall this year). Russia is taking over about 40% of Ukraine's territory, and nearly 2/3 of its wheat, other resources and GDP.

The Ukie govt, creeps like Arestovich that you hold in high esteem, have cut off Kherson and Mariupol from their power grid and pension payments, which the Russians are integrating into their more stable economy and currency. Next year you will have two Ukraines, a thriving Novorossyia to the south and east, and a wrecked dysfunctional landlocked Rump Ukraine.

Russia, which already dominated the world wheat market, is now the global kingmaker. The leaders of countries like Egypt, Ethiopia, Turkey, Indonesia etc will now have to rely on Russia to feed their people and keep their masses from rioting.

1654357740782.png

People in the UK and the US are going to be paying $5 for a loaf of bread next year, and even if they're getting their wheat from France or Canada, that extra cost on the wheat market is going to result in tens of billions in extra revenues for Russia on the world market. Exactly the same dynamic as in the energy markets.

Russia is also gaining status on the world scene across the world, people in places like Latin America or Africa are taking notice, and even in the "free world", the official "Ghost of Kiiiyyyv"-level propaganda is starting to unravel as the facts on the ground are becoming harder to ignore by the day. It is NATO that has egg on its face this Summer, not Putin.
 
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