Signs of escalation into a World War
- Thread starter Roosh
- Start date
Yes, and Israel also gets "loans" which are never expected to repaid.
They are also "gifted" grant money, with the explicit purpose that it has to be used to buy things from the US. So when you hear about "Oh but Israel is a great economic partner, they purchased so many billions of US products last year" a lot of that is with money we gave them.
I just didn't have the numbers handy to quote, but that's very true.
The loan guarantees are at least $2 billion more every year.
They also have some ponzi scheme where Israel gets the money up front and the US makes interest payments to Israel for a loan against its promise to make future "aid" payments to Israel; it's so Jewish I can't explain it well.
You're changing the goalposts - in bad faith I must add. Russia had a clearly defined set of strategic and tactical goals laid out, as defined by its November 2021 Security Demands and Putin+ cadres stated conditions for claiming victory and ending the war in late Feb/ early March 2022.
As there seems to be some sort of weird collective selective amnesia going around I will remind you and ilk pro-bono. Putin's main goals for commencing the 'special military operation' were:
1. De-nazification and de-militarization of the Kiev junta.
2. An immediate stop on NATO expansion eastwards
3. The re-establishment of a Russian zone of influence (ie SU 2.0) through inclusion in a shared European security framework.
4. De-militarization of post-1997 NATO members and withdrawal AEGIS systems from Poland and Romania.
There are of course many more but for now this will do, as they were the core demands. Russia has achieved exactly ZERO of these goals, nor will they without proper mobilization and shifting the economy into war-mode. None. Zilch. Nada. Even worse, they lost the initiative as they don't decide on the Where and When anymore. So what did Russia get instead? Well, kinda like the exact opposite. A complete militarization of its Eastern border, a nazified and militarized Kiev junta, a massive increase in anti-Russian sentiments on all its borders, additional ICBM missiles systems planned in post 1997 NATO countries, the re-armament of the European continent (with Germany becoming the third global military spender by itself alone), an arrested economy, the demasque of its military, a final break with the EU+ the latter's final return to US vassalage-status, the de-Russification of much of Ukraine and isolation on world stage.
Obviously that is why the propaganda machine has quietly shifted gears. Because what do you do when initial set strategic goals turn out unachievable? You low-key change the conditions of victory - fertilizing the soil for a mission accomplished! moment somewhere down the line. It's not as if the sheeple will notice anyway - plenty of proof on this board alone. Hence the current dialing down of bluster and grandstanding and instead start of sales-pitches on the take-over of random villages in the Donbass (covered as victories of greatness along the lines of mythical WW2 stories), coupled with tacky out-of-touch claims of enemy KIAs and random deflectionary feel-good nonsense. Again, one are not supposed to notice.
The war in Ukraine has turned from a war to re-establish Russia as a global power to a war for its existence. The shills are of course still singing the praises of Dear Leader - because that's what emotional buy-in, domestic disenfrenchment, overall tunnel vision and limited subject knowledge lead to. Even so I'm not too sure you got the laughing order correct. What comes first? The Anglos prodding Russians to kill other Russians on Russian territory whilst strangling the Russian economy and watching the mayhem unfold, throwing as much fuel to the fire as they can or the Kremlin's 6D chess masters engaged in 'an existential battle', only to come out 'victorious' as a resource colony of the birthing 'Chinese Century' - patent pending Taiwan resolution. With the obligatory addendum that every war lost by Russia gets followed by revolution/international turmoil (1905 Russo-Japanese War, 1917 WW1, 1989 Afghan War). Trust me it won't be any different this time around.
A glaring example of Putin's 9D chess moves. It's proper clown world stuff. Congratulations.
I don't necessarily agree with everything Gao says, especially regarding a Russian collapse which at this point at time is as retarded a take as stating that Russia can singlehandedly push NATO over the German border (pun intended). Too triumphantalist and biased for my taste. But in essence he is spot on - and you haven't made a single sound argument against it, instead relying on half- truths, faulty logic, wishful thinking and strawmen alike.
What Gao's leaked speech does highlight are two things. 1. The discrepancy between official narratives crafted for and disseminated to the dumbed down masses on the one hand, and the discourse amongst highly respected members of an international diplomatic corps with skin in the game on the other hand. You can decide for yourself in what box you belong. For me subsequently seeing the Putinistas going into bunkermode trying to maintain the narrative in the face of such scoffing remarks is to be considered the cherry on the cake. I knew it was going to come, and wasn't disappointed. All the disseminated talking points that could previously be heard from Kremlin paid analyst grifters are present, no surprise there. Try thinking for yourself for once, and you won't need the Scott Ritters/Pepe's/Durans and the rest of the clown car to sell you fairy tales so you can sleep good at night. I can recommend it. It's extremely healthy and refreshing.
And 2. the acknowledgment of the incompetence of Russian leadership of the last 60 years. No event can explain that crazy political culture better than Gorbatsjov dissolving the USSR with a single stroke of a pen and without a single shot fired. Allowing the deaths of 20+ million to have been for nothing - a 'legacy' that continues till this day as he is still heralded as a great statesman and is living the goodlife on a lavish state pension. Putin is not of that order, but not far above him either. Jeopardizing the existence of the Russian state and people through a series of blunders in Ukraine - something which started in 2004, became irreversible in 2014 and of which he is now picking the 'fruits' through his botched attempt to save what could be saved (not much). Current leadership is simply clawing for its own land, as the US plays proxy and puppet master with a bunch of Russia's own people, on its own yard. Fratricidal doesn't even begin to cover it. It's a humiliating catastrophe, not something to be proud off. Only spin and propaganda can make it look so, and that is not reality.
Ah yes, the Kinzhals. LOL. I do remember how those were supposed to alter the equation (as in MAD doctrine? Even more LOL) and were widely used as pitiful excuse for Dear Leader's 8 year long inaction during which Ukraine built up its military, prepared its economy, groomed its population and built the international ties necessary for maintaining the war effort - all whilst 'bright Kremlin men' sat on their hands talking about 'dear partners and friends' with the online troll army going into overdrive babbling eight lost years away waffling incessantly about Russia's Wunderwaffe, Russia's Wunder Wirtschaft's and other nonsense. The results are clear for everyone to see today - and no amount of coping is going to get you out of that predicament.
One would think that people would learn after falling face down in a turd every single day of the week for three months straight - but apparently not. The RAF won't be coming down out of this debacle upgraded, but downgraded. No-one can un-see what has happened in Ukraine- and I guarantee you that Sanna Marin wouldn't be hopping around with NATO applicationships under her arm, smiling from ear to ear if by the end of March Russian tanks would have been parked outside Kiev with Zelu in a dungeon and half the Ukrainian political leadership six feet under. No chance. The supposedly second military of the world got its head, arms and ass bloodied on a far inferior enemy (in everything except fighting spirit) and it ain't exactly a nice view. No use of combined forces, lack of proper recon, lack of integration of drones, using archaic and obsolete military tactics, lackluster intel gathering etc. etc. And what's even worse, there is very little sign of improvement - no doubt because the class of 1976 Ryazan Military Academy didn't teach about any of that stuff and during the WW2 frontal attacks on heavily fortified positions delivered results too. There are countless of (Russian language) complaints about the state of things but you won't find them on Incel Slava Z. Hence, for some, they don't exist. Massive crowdfunding initiatives from the Russian public to boot, just to get the guys on the front some commercial style drones, proper footwear, military grade comms and a proper sleeping bag to sleep in. It is the complete demasque of the Russian Armed Forces, who from now on should and will be graded as a second tier military.
By the way, have you seen the videos of the stuff they are sending to the front now? En masse fielding GRAD systems on 1966 ZIL chassis, using obsolete T64/T80 tanks without any ERA armor, MadMax tier technicals. LDPR conscripts participating in offensive actions with 1891 Mosin Nagant museum pieces and a one week military training. It's painful, it truly does hurt to see stuff like that.
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The Dark Eagle is expected to become operational in 2023.
Sure, where have we heard that one before?
China doesn't have 10 years, it has at best 2 to 3 and that's already stretching it. Hence the entire point above has become moot and just another example of a non-sensical attempt to bend narratives to form some sort of cohesion in your own head about the flow of events.
Not for the first time: THERE WILL BE NO DIRECT CONFRONTATION BETWEEN THE US AND CHINA AND RUSSIA. No side is interested in an nuclear exchange and if direct kinetic conflict does occur due to rogue units and/or miscommunications tensions will be diffused within hours or nuclear escalation will follow. The whole hypersonic missile stuff is purely a negotiation tool in the diplomatic arena, to be used as leverage on xyz topic when concerning lesser actors. However as Ukraine shows, the much fabled hypersonic missile doesn't really make a big difference as it doesn't alter MAD doctrine in any meaningful way and is at the end of the day just a very fast ballistic missile - something which inferiorly equipped enemies don't really have a defense mechanism for anyway.
As stated before, conflict will be through proxies, third states, economic warfare, biological warfare, naval blockades, informational warfare, elite greasing, subversion and cyber warfare. Get the silly stuff out of your head, it is nothing but yet another empty Russian propaganda talking point. US bombers/missiles aren't going to target Chinese/Russian aircraft carriers and vice versa. Not as long as there are nukes aimed at any major US/China/Russia population center. No Strike First Doctrines should be valued like the paper they are written - good for tinder and not much else.
Out of all the copes this is probably my favorite. Russia didn't collapse under sanctions hence it is winning. Meanwhile there is an island nation the size of a minor Oblast about 110 km from the Keys that has been under sanction for 60 years and counting, with not even 10 percent of Russia's population, zero resources and it's main produce/export at that time being sugarcane. In times of such blatant propaganda and fake bravado it's at times good the offer some historical perspective, for there is nothing worth of any praise happening here.
To deepen out that little tangent: Russia should look at Iran and Cuba to get a glimpse of its economic future, because that's where things are heading. A pirate economy that has to rely on parallel/gray imports to get the high-tier technology and assets (point in case yesterday's TSCM sanctions, high tech components used in Russia's oil industry, etc.) to keep its main industries running. Russia is fostering the creation of the largest black market on the planet - so say goodbye tax revenue. Russia will be a country that is bleeding massive amounts of money due to heavy sanctions and missed trade- with the Iranians alone stating they are losing 600 billion USD a year due to international pariah status. Good luck on your race to the bottom - and if you think China is going to help you, think again. They are mad enthusiastic with your new status as Chinese tributary state and at the same time fear similar sanctions.
Now back to the economic reality, a reality that is carefully blanketed by (low tier) propaganda ops and incessant shilling of the usual suspects. According to the Russian Central Bank the country has entered a deep recession and its GDP will contract with nearly 8 percent in 2022 alone (with international sources sometimes providing a number of 10+ percent). That is on top of nearly 10 years of economic stagnation and loss of real income following the 2014 sanction packets an 90s-00s misery in general - so it's not as if the average Russian had a lot of meat on the bones to begin with. The Russian CB has also issued a warning that inflation could at the end of the year reach 23 percent - which is bad news if your interest rate is hovering between 14 and 20 percent. A clear indicator of the state of things. No, Russia won't collapse but it will be as far removed from above fairy tale as possible. What a load of crock.
The ruble-USD exchange rate is another topic you boast about - only showing the clear lack of knowledge and insight in the process. It's near autistic navel-gazing and I can't shake off the feeling that there is some sort of 'personal investment' in all of this. The ruble is now a fully inconvertible currency hence the exchange rate is open to manipulation by the State. Energy companies arbitrarily set the exchange rates which then gets registered on the Moscow Stock Exchange and which gives the CB the room to operate + coupled with CB's decision to restrict people's ability to buy/sell in volume. The big kicker in all of this is of course that Russia doesn't want to appreciate its currency too much as as an export nation it would mean decreased income from exports and an unnatural tilting of the economy towards fossil fuels, something which Moscow has been trying to prevent for a very long time.
Even so, Sberbank (SBerCIB Investment Research) has as recently as one week ago forecasted that the ruble-dollar exchange rate will strengthen to 60:1 or slightly below in the third quarter and then in the fourth quarter stabilize at 70-75 to 1. The forecast scenario of the Russian Ministry of Economic Development has stated that the average dollar ruble exchange rate will be 76.7 to 1 at the end of 2022 - with the conservative scenario speaking of 79.1 rubles to 1. Historical context: in the year 2000 (start of Dear Leader's Presidency) the ruble -dollar exchange rate stood at 27.0 to 1. During the final years of the USSR the official fixed exchange rate stood at 0.65 ruble to 1 dollar, with the black market rate being 2 ruble for 1 dollar. At that time the SU government sought really hard for ways to get foreign currency from trading because precision equipment and specific technologies were available only in Western states and they didn't accept rubles as payment. Based on this you can make some judgement on the current situation.
Uncomfortable truths.
Russia made record oil profits from 2011-2014, and all that money was wasted and it's economy destroyed - under sanctions that are a walk in the park compared to the current packets.
I have told you many times already that the Anglos are following a generational plan. Within that framework the current temporary oil bonanza isn't really that relevant - especially when you come to think of it that the Americans are probably profiting more from it than the Russians. What the past three months have shown though amounts to nothing less than a paradigm shift - a wake up call amongst the Europeans that relying on Russia for anything is dumb, followed by a rapid re-assessment regarding energy security. They are going to ween themselves of the Russian oil and gas which will take time (probably years) and will come at great pain, but will nevertheless happen. This is in the grander scale of things as huge as it gets - and dwarves any temporary oil hike - which always gets followed by an oil busts. Expect a rush to new nuclear power, coal power and renewable combined with new gas/oil deals in the periphery. Spain and Algeria have agreed on increased capacity, Bulgaria and Greece will be connected to the Trans Adriatic Pipeline through a Greek interlocuter/Komotini LNG port and supplied with additional amounts of Azerbaijani gas (currently only using TurkStream), Spain is looking into kickstarting the Enara shale gas project and Italy has signed new gas deals with Azerbaijan and Algeria and will extent the TAP towards Central Europe. New negotiations are underway with Qatar and Germany is looking to build LNG import terminals across its coastline. It is an absolutely massive undertaking that will cost a lot of blood, sweat, tears and especially money but will in the end be successful, simply because there is the political will to do it.
Your scorning attempts to dress this somehow up as a win for Russia is frankly as delusional as it is bizarre, as the Russians need the Europeans as much as vice versa. Their entire Russian gas-infrastructure is geared towards supplying the European market (courtesy of Putin's energy dependency policy), and not the Chinese/Asian market. Hence expect a race against time for the Russians to start building up their networks East - with for now only Power of Siberia 1 operational (gas and at maximum capacity), and ESPO 1 (oil). Power of Siberia 2 is currently under construction but will only become operational in a few years. Other options were ruled out preliminary as the Kazakhs have hinted at being against the Russians using their Atasu- Alashankou network as the Turkmen fields are no big enough to make the pipeline run at full capacity but sanctions. So aside from a those two the Russians have a newly built LNG port in Sakhalin and the Yamal LNG plant and that's about it. The infrastructure is not there yet. Putin spoke about it in Mid April and the plans are being readied already. This too will be a colossal undertaking.
Russia'll be needing to sell a lot of oil to Pajeets at 70 percent market price (trying to get a foot in the door, another clear indicator of Russian strength.. NOT) to make up for eventually losing 60- 70 percent of your customer base. With the obligatory bonus remark that the Chinese don't seem to have the appetite. The Europeans are consuming over 200bn cubic meters per year, China only 10.5bn with another 10.5 being planned. Chinese are also getting spooked by gas prices and are considering returning to coal based and have a clear policy of energy diversification in terms of providers- something which will make them buy a bit more of the Russian stuff but nearly enough to make up for the losses. And that is why Russia has become a Chinese underling.
As for the Americans, together with the Chinese the CLEAR WINNERS in all of this, they are making inroads in Venezuela (recent Chevron deal in return for sanctions alleviations) and OPEC (recent decision to increase production) to put that cap on the market. Iran has increased production too even though more aligned with China and Russia these days - trying to make quick buck out of the situation. Meaning that the oil price will at some point start stabilizing and eventually dropping. I am talking in months now, not weeks or days. And that's when the real hard times will begin.
China: we need to provide financial assistance to Russia.
Obscure online Kremlin propagandist known for making outlandish statements: China doesn't need to provide financial assistance to Russia.
Gee, who should I believe?!
More bluster and wishful thinking. What Russia will instead inherit is a de-populated steppe region where a large share of the remaining population hates Russia with a vigor (Kherson for one never had any anti-Maidan activity), where half the cities are in ruins, where most of the basic infrastructure is destroyed, where there is very little manufacturing/industrial activity left and where the economy in general is under heavy sanctions (possibly even worse than Russia, as was the case in Crimea/Donbass post 2014). Reconstruction efforts alone will mount in the hundreds of billions USD, and that's a conservative estimate. Ryabkov already stated that the 'liberated' regions will have to return to agricultural core business as for the time being there won't be any serious attempt to re-build the manufacturing capacity. You can guess for yourself why that is.
So what that in effect means is that they are going to hand out Russian passports to whoever wishes to have one, thereby draining the region even further, possibly fixing critical infrastructure whilst leaving much of the cities+ industry in tatters. If that's winning than please don't tell me what losing means in the Russian handbook.
So Russia, following your logic, allegedly has become 'the kingmaker' post sanctions due to its status as a grain exporter and will use this status to break the international financial system and US hegemony, but somehow wasn't able to weaponize this status as top grain exporter and make any meaningful inroads in said countries in the years before.. because?
It's all mirrors and smokescreens. A try-hard attempt to just let it all make sense in your head. Three months from now you'll be parroting much of what I've written above, just like you are now parroting quite a few of the things I wrote 6 months ago. The USD as the global reserve currency+ US military hegemony + US elite conditioning is so much more of incentive than Dear Leader going around with his cap in his hand asking and Draghi, and Erdo, and Macron in one week time to pleeeeease remove the sanctions because the suffering is unnecessary. Just reeks of weakness.
Up until the countries you are mentioning.. Are you even paying attention bro? Egypt is getting reeled in by the Americans as part of the Nearshore Strategy (ie. pulling manufacturing away from China toward places like Colombia, Mexico and Egypt). Siemens just landed a sweet 9 billion USD deal to construct a North-South highspeed railway, quite a few US companies are looking to relocate to Egypt and the Egyptian military has been on a military spending spree in the US. Turkey is a long term Russian adversary that is currently blackmailing Putin in Syria to make him move Assad give part of his territory and is being named as partner in the anti-Russian European Commonwealth framework - never mind the never ending supply of Bayraktars to the Ukrainians (some for free like with the Lithuanian crowdfunding action). Ethiopia? Wrecked by the civil war and firmly within China's fold. Indonesia? Come on now. Might as well have mentioned Mars because they carry about the same importance for Russia.
With a little more prodding and desperation we'll soon find out Merkel and Putin are a secret couple and the SMO is just a 6D chess diversion to trick the U.S. 5 euro for a loaf of bread, just making stuff up on the fly now as has become your trademark. I know you are smarter than this. Where does this bizarre Putin worship come from? Just another (Covid) tyrant looking to implement his techno-feudalism and lord over the peasants. Only difference in Russia is that you get a police state on steroids but lose the LGBT clownery. I assume that the fact that he doesn't answer to Klaus S. and George S. make up for a lot of shortcomings.
This is mirror-talk, of the rather cringeworthy type. Obvious goal: conveying a crumbling narrative. Empty internet babble from people who don't live in Russia, have no links to the country, and whose wet farts have no bearing on reality, but who for some reason have projected their domestic political issues and grievances on Russia, but then in reverse. You don't care about reality, because in reality Russia is getting devastated, on a strategic level at least. Even if it is making some profits of the booming oil bonanza, those profits (which aren't really that much when you are selling at 70 percent market price trying to get a foot in the door in third world nations) are going linea recta to the war effort - with the added background knowledge that the Saudis had to scale their war effort drastically in 2014-2015 after only 14-16 months in Yemen. They had a FOREX similar to Russia's, no sanctions befell them, and the scope of that military endeavor was considerably smaller than Russia's.
The easily impressed will gobble it all up hook line sinker but then again many of them share a certain outlook on life - one that is dominated by a dislike of their own political 'leaders'. That is however not a proper starting position as an be seen in the many gigantic miscalculations you and ilk have been making for months now. The Anglos are realists and try to win in real life, the Russians at this stage are only winning in their own heads, to soothe the unbearable reality of having played every single card wrong for 20 years and counting - with the final stage now having been reached.
I can't deny that I myself would have preferred a quick Russian military victory followed by internal instability in Europe and a possible break between the two Atlanticist poles but 100+ days in the opposite has happened. Your entire shtick for months on end has been nothing but will happen, will happen and will happen whilst purposely spinning the obvious away into the night and mesmerize the flock by never to-be-realized future prospects.
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The last few comments here are giving me a headache. We will never see the full truth be laid out in broad daylight in the midst of all the NATO vs Kremlin vs CCP propaganda. And we will never actually know who is truly the strongest, military or otherwise, between the US, China and Russia. There's a reason why the Korean Peninsula has been on a stalemate for almost 80 years (I keep bringing Korea up because this region of the world is the sole focal point of all three major powers in the present), because no one wants to make the first move, because in turn it will drag everyone else into World War 3 which no one is willing to shoulder.
We're all aware of the social and economic grasp of globohomo but even the (((rulers))) of the West are not omnipotent, let alone have enough power to simply steamroll over Siberia.
Putin's decision to invade, no matter how morally justified, has thrown away all remaining opportunities to win over key European states like Poland to Russian influence (i.e. against globohomo); the historical memory of Soviet rule alone will rile up Eastern Europe against Putin, no matter how abhorrent the idea of submitting to the globalists as the alternative. Poland has been looked up to in the past as a bastion of traditional, Christian pushback against the twin attacks of Islamization and LGBT indoctrination. But now they're one of the staunchest opponents of Russia and allies of globohomo in the foreseeable future.
We're all aware of the social and economic grasp of globohomo but even the (((rulers))) of the West are not omnipotent, let alone have enough power to simply steamroll over Siberia.
All we can be 100% sure here is that, whatever the strategic outcome of the Ukraine war, the Atlanticist political order will only be strengthened all the more, and NATO and EU will only have all the more justification for keeping European countries within their control.
Putin's decision to invade, no matter how morally justified, has thrown away all remaining opportunities to win over key European states like Poland to Russian influence (i.e. against globohomo); the historical memory of Soviet rule alone will rile up Eastern Europe against Putin, no matter how abhorrent the idea of submitting to the globalists as the alternative. Poland has been looked up to in the past as a bastion of traditional, Christian pushback against the twin attacks of Islamization and LGBT indoctrination. But now they're one of the staunchest opponents of Russia and allies of globohomo in the foreseeable future.
This is likely the most outstanding aspect or tragedy of the current conflict and the decades leading up to it. It's forcing a more bipolar (lol) world in the sense that people just can't let the past go and see the big picture. But it's also why the world is flawed and constantly on edge or tending to conflict. Only really special christian leadership could overcome it, but I fear that we will get anti-christian leadership out of it, ultimately - for reasons we all know.
It seems like Putin didn't realize that the struggle between world powers in the 21st Century is not simply one of military victory/defeat but also economic, diplomatic, financial and technological. The moment he decided to send the first Russian troops he inadvertently realigned Eastern Europe towards the Atlanticist order (US + NATO + EU) and made China recalculate their global standing in relation with America's sheer power of sanctions. His main political gain here is the support from the anti-Americanist portion of the world who judges him as the lesser evil compared to the U.S.
The best hope we have right now to deter the Atlantic globohomo dominance is for China to overhaul its grand strategy for the rest of the 2020's and the upcoming 2030's. Invading Taiwan is out of the question at this point, Sri Lanka is collapsing and Southeast Asian countries will continue to distrust China because of territorial disputes. The CCP gets criticism from a foreign policy perspective chiefly because of the infamous "debt traps" it lures Third World countries into, although I'd apply Hanlon's Razor and assume it's more on the incompetence on part of Xi's lackeys.
Just for the sake of discussion, if I were the ruler of China I would concede territorial disputes against India and Southeast Asia--as counter-intuitive that might be--in exchange for de-escalating those regions and making those countries shift away from American influence. As for Korea, I would let the two halves sort it out for themselves and guarantee that the Koreans have a say in the matter. My point is that the main rationale for continued U.S. military presence and influence has been China's [perceived] aggression. Remove the illusion of Chinese threat and you make China's neighbors start thinking twice about stationing American forces.
Japan will be the lone exception here, not just because of historical disputes with China and Korea, but considering its current domestic problems Japan seeks to hold unto its leading position in Asia by acting as the U.S.' auxiliary, receiving benefits from access to Western markets and a demographic of white weeaboos willing to consume Japanese pop culture. If China manages to swing the economic order away from the U.S., Japan will end up reverting to a state of indefinite isolation just like the days of the Shoguns. And it doesn't help matters that their population is aging and birth rates are alarmingly low.
You're the guy who, a couple weeks ago, was literally drooling over the intellectual might of Arestovich, the degenerate sociopath running Ukrainian policy, raving about how brilliant he was, and marvelling at his plan to raise "an army of 6 to 10 million soldiers" that are going to crush Russia... Not only was that argument incredibly ridiculous, but you presented it wrapped within an angry emotional outburst that an 8-year old girl would have been embarrassed of...
This is where I kind of tapped out as far as taking you seriously, one cannot have a serious conversation with someone who lacks basic emotional maturity as demonstrated by that monumental outburst.
This lack of emotional maturity is tainting your assessment of where things really are, and combined with a visible lack of an economics foundation, is leading you to believe things like Putin is today in a state of weakness vs Macron or Draghi, or that LNG, which is 5 to 10 times more expensive than Russian gas and requires 2 to 4 years in extensive infrastructure investments, is going to somehow replace Russian gas for countries like Germany, or that the Russian economy is collapsing.
Oh yes, and Russia is actually LOSING, because they have only managed to conquer a meager 25% of Ukraine in 100 days, land mass the size of England and Wales, how pitiful is that now, Putin might as well surrender now, before Arestovich's 6 million man army (always the 6 million with these people) marches on to Moscow with their Javelins and Bayraktars
This, and statements like the one below, is the kind of posturing that makes it incredibly difficult for you to be taken seriously:
Russia has virtually no debt, and a nest egg of nearly one trillion dollars, and the ~$300 billion seized reserves can easily be replaced, equivalent to less than a year of export revenues. Thanks to Putin's prudent management of his country's finances, no major industrialized country in the world is in a better position than Russia in terms of national debt and reserves, and that is a fact.
Do you seriously think that Putin is going to go hat in hand and beg Draghi, Scholtz and Macron to please stop hurting Russia?!? Those are countries that already were falling apart from the social strife (unprecedented in the modern history of France for one) brought about pre-covid pre-Ukraine energy prices, countries with debt to GDP ratios over 100%... Just how do you think these countries are going to fare when their energy costs are doubled, tripled or quintupled? And what is going to happen to the Euro if they try to print themselves out of that economic predicament??
No wall of text is going to effectively address these basic facts.
The US and EU will be forced to trade with Russia and keep importing Russian oil and gas. The US for one is importing more Russian oil today than they did before the Ukraine war. Look up what Janet Yellen had to say about oil sanctions on Russia:
https://thehill.com/policy/finance/...on-russian-energy-may-do-more-harm-than-good/
As to them cutting off their exports to Russia, it's only going to hurt western companies, classic case of cutting your nose off to spite your face. Renault for example might not survive in the long term without the Russian market, its largest, acceleretaing France's deindustrialization and pauperization. Russia is better off taking over its own auto industry, or shutting down companies like McDonalds that siphon off their profits to the Cohon family in Canada.
Even if the West, or "Free World" manages to shut out Russia completely (definitely not a given, especially after the economic devastation from skyrocketing inflation and energy prices actually work their way through), those countries make up a smaller share of the world economy (roughly half), and that share is shrinking every year. Most of the economic growth today is taking place in the rest of the world, which today is having less and less of a problem telling the "free world" to butt off.
‘No, India not sitting on fence’: Jaishankar says Europe has to change mindset
Foreign minister S Jaishankar said India is not sitting on the fence and it is entitled to pick its own choice when it comes to foreign policies instead of siding with other countries.
Lira on the topic, earlier today:
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China would rather sit it out and watch all their rivals, friend or foe alike whittle away peacefully in some Sun Tzu dream but that ain't gonna happen. There will be a confrontation and they will have to face it, the outcome of which will decide the new world order. They'll either win it with their entourage of allies, big and small, or lose it.
China's power resides in its industrial strength and mercantilist trade - thus economic in nature, not militarily. So the Chinese understand what their strengths are and what their deficiencies are. They're resource starved producer-economy and can't keep their economic activity at a sufficient level if disruptions to their resource bases occur. The only safe ones are found inland, within China's own borders and from Russia (for the most part). Anything that comes from the sea is disruptable, as are many of the more extensive BRI landlinks through Asia. The US+ allies know that too obviously and thus it's obvious why the U.S+allies push for military encirclement/containment of China and it's why China cries about 'bloc mentality'. They cry about it because they lack what their rival has and they know it's a powerful weapon. The US+allies command an allegiance network capable of bringing the Chinese economy to a halt through a naval blockade, full, soft or selective (positioned around the Strait of Malacca-Guam-Japanese Island vhain), and the Chinese won't be capable of combatting it effectively without pressing that Nuke button. The US can set such a scenario off easily - the Taiwan Declaration of Independence being the torch light. Once the cards are positioned well enough it will happen - at least that is the American goal, and that is what they're working on. The birthing of QUAD (with India as recently as two days ago re-affirming commitment) and AUSUK, the situation in Ukraine (ie weakening of Russia+ re-establishing partnerships with Europe) and eventually the introduction of European NATO into the frey all work in tandem towards preparing for that moment. The Chinese are outmanned, outgunned and outflanked. That's why the Changs are on an accelerated drive to build a blue water navy but even with a blue water navy you still need an allegiance structure, a bloc, to back you up, and strategically help you in the confrontation. The US is smart in harassing China for every move they make to try to get Naval bases established in third countries (ie. Solomon Islands). The Chinese are desperate to break from the first island chain grip and with India in the fray, the South China Sea also got a visegrip on. It's a tight grip. Neither Russia's (diminished) Central Asian allegiance network nor the Russian Navy are capable of counter balancing the seafaring power strengths and capacity to blockade China trade. The only thing Russia is useful for is keeping the Europeans in check for a gang rape of China, and as a stable resource base to avoid complete collapse once seaborne trade and seaborne resource imports are blocked or semi-blocked in case of such a stand-off.
Thus, in the light of the above, the will of the Chinese will truly be tested and your guess is as good as mine as to whether they'll wistand the stand off and win or capitulate and enter into an understanding with the US (relegated to underling status, simply a bigger Japan). As of today, they're clearly not ready for such a stand-off, however neither is the US. Both are working around the clock to get to their desired positions faster. Am I sold on Chinese progress on this front, not quite in the least. Russia is much more self-sufficient than China, despite having severely less upside (for decisions that are fresh, some decades or even centuries old).
That is already happening.
The PiS has caved on one of its main elections promises (ie. keep LGBT stuff out of the classrooms). Their principled stance on Russia is costing them a lot of money, (I believe they have voluntarily stopped the gas trade, now buying stuff on the overheated spot market+ securing much more expensive new deals). The EU in return has unblocked ~35+ billion euro of funds that they had frozen as 'punishment' for Polish sovereigntist ideals (related to their law system) + ruling party's rejection of LGBT ideology.
Welp, here I called it, as much as it hurts to see my predictions become reality. The neocons installing Zelinsky into power essentially walled off the right-wing sovereignty movements in Europe (Poland, Hungary, France, etc) in a geopolitical trap.
But I think that even without the US meddling in Ukraine, Russia will not be a palatable political partner for the likes of Poland, Sweden and the Baltic states, simply because of the negative experiences of being Soviet satellites. The Intermarium alliance would have given the weaker European nations a way out between either EU or Russian hegemony. Well, hindsight is 20-20.
I see it differently, China doesn't really need to intimidate the U.S. military or win any stand-off. All they need is to stop grabbing disputed territories with their neighbors (especially that stupid, infamous "Nine-Dash Line") and that will remove the rationale for U.S. presence and influence. Problem is that Beijing has no Bismarck-level IQ statesman who has the talent to wiggle diplomatic ties of other countries away from the American sphere.
The problem was that the encroachment was too obvious and great and it may have been too soon in many ways, but he didn't have a choice ultimately given time tables, population, military considerations, etc.
It appears to me that Putin recognized that battle was really with NATO, not Ukraine, and that it would be an economic, diplomatic, financial, and technological war. He laid in place strategies to address these things, before launching the Special Military Operation. The SMO is really only a single move in the overall chess game. However, the SMO is very strategic, because it enables Russia to control additional strategic resources, and it undermines the NATO alliance between the US and EU. It provoked the NATO allies into an own goal by provoking them into the reputation destroying asset seizures, and sanctions on critical resources they need from Russia.
Putin has definitely had some successes, but his effort is far short of perfect. Any war is like this when you follow it day by day, blow by blow. However, it seems clear to me that Putin had the larger scope of the war in view from the start. Russia's foreign minister has been characterizing the war in these broader, global terms pretty much from the start.
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I very much agree. Putin has not played it perfectly, but I have to wonder where the posters that think Putin has made these serious miscalculations live? Maybe in Poland or Hungary? In the USA the Ukraine/NATO situation is growing more and more unpopular by the day. Some examples from my day to day...
- I don't know how exactly Putin was able to get China to tell the west to "go to hell" but he pulled it off. That was his ace in the hole. Yes, I know Putin has done military drills with China for years on end, but to get China to tell the west to "go fly a kite" was huge. I have Chinese friends who watch the Chinese news and the US has lost major face in all this.
- I don't know how Putin got India to tell the USA to "go to hell". India is currently increasing their already record oil purchase from Russia. Why? Because they are selling them back to the EU at a price markup and profiting. And people know about this and are NOT happy.
India and China not just bowing down to the USA has the leaders of the west shook. They were not expecting it.
Not long ago Ted Cruz tweeted in support of the $40 billion for Ukraine from the US tax payers. So did Dan Crenshaw. And they got throttled on twitter. American tax payers are furious over the financial support for the war? Why? Small businesses are shutting down left and right. Baby formula is unavailable. Our electrical grid is on the verge of shutting down and rolling blackouts are expected. Food prices have skyrocketed. And oh yea, Gas is nearly $5.00 a gallon on average and EVERYONE and their dog is talking about it.
To say Putin didn't expect the war to be also economic and diplomatic seems completely incorrect. He has China and India lined up. The USD/RUB chart shows how this has played out. The American middle class is all but extinct and people are starting to ask "what the hell is going on?". Now we are having mass shooting almost everyday in the USA, with record crime and growing poverty and the leaders have no answers at all. Even our govt. admits there will be likely food shortages and rolling blackouts this year. If so, Putin has done more damage to the USA than anyone has done in a long time and he hasn't even had to directly attack us or even use his big guns yet.
The old saying is "don't talk religion or politics" in that you could start a fight very easily. I work a job where I interact with a lot of people. It is a fun challenge to walk the "blue pill tightrope" as I call it. But I talk very little politics, I almost never bring it up, and if I do I am sure I leave the person confused as I am neither a libtard nor a Sean Hannity conservative. But the economy is so bad an the situation in Ukraine looks so dire, even to the average American, I can strike up a conversation about it and always have them in agreement. Putin has made our politicians (who are all very unpopular among most people) look like the fools they are and now we are suffering for it and these gas prices are robbery of us by our govt./politicians.
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Thinking of my last post, I forgot to add..
I have said this to at least 10 different people over the last few weeks, none of them people I would share political talk with, unless they really push it. And none of these people ever have pushed to talk politics to me and I am very happy with that. But with each one of them they were talking about what a mess the economy is in the USA and I have said this very same line...
"I'm not saying Putin is a good guy, a bad guy, a evil genius. But I will say he is very smart, much smarter than anyone in DC. And he has played our politicians like the fools that they are, and now we all have to pay for it."
And not one of those 10 disagreed with me. And the reason I wouldn't talk politics with these 10+ people is they are likely either apolitical or they are libtards. They are not the Trump supporting type. That is the consensus in the USA right now. We are hurting, we are hurting badly, and those bastards in DC sent $40 billion of our money overseas for the MIC to profit.
I have said this to at least 10 different people over the last few weeks, none of them people I would share political talk with, unless they really push it. And none of these people ever have pushed to talk politics to me and I am very happy with that. But with each one of them they were talking about what a mess the economy is in the USA and I have said this very same line...
"I'm not saying Putin is a good guy, a bad guy, a evil genius. But I will say he is very smart, much smarter than anyone in DC. And he has played our politicians like the fools that they are, and now we all have to pay for it."
And not one of those 10 disagreed with me. And the reason I wouldn't talk politics with these 10+ people is they are likely either apolitical or they are libtards. They are not the Trump supporting type. That is the consensus in the USA right now. We are hurting, we are hurting badly, and those bastards in DC sent $40 billion of our money overseas for the MIC to profit.
IM3000
Pelican
I had dinner yesterday with my aging parents and some of their friends. All are in their 70s and have voted for center—left parties all their life. So, I explained to them the undeniable realities of how much Europe's prosperity will suffer due to the sanctions and how, if the Russian natural gas would stop flowing, it's literally lights out on the continent.
I expected some kind of rebuttal but no, they were in complete agreement. Gave me hope.
Well they were almost there. They decided to not jump over the last fence towards freedom and decided to turn back and escalate the previous 9 fences back to the jail.
If it turns out that Russia will emerge not only strategically victorious but also stronger economically, financially and socially -- while Western countries are collapsing with both degrading standards of living and the moral destruction of globohomo and "diversity" -- it will be a massive shattering of the illusion presented by Western media. The USA will still remain the primary hegemon but now vulnerable. Biden already has two foreign policy blunders with the fall of Afghanistan and the [impending] defeat of Zelensky's government in Ukraine.
All that China and India need to do is to remain confident and call out the West's diplomatic bluffs. The big irony here is that the two countries hate each other but both of them are very friendly with Russia. A Chinese-Indian-Russian alliance is the last thing that Washington and NATO want, and probably the best chance we have in stopping the total dominance of the globohomo system.
On another note, as an Asian I find it so disappointing and cringe that Japan would kiss globalist ass so much because of their humiliation at losing some islands to the Soviets at the end of World War II. In fact, Japanese media seems to be reviving revanchist sentiments to take back the Sakhalin Islands (called the "Northern Territories" or "Northern Islands" by Japan) from Russia.
Not only is this a fool's errand on the part of Tokyo to use the ongoing war on Ukraine as justification to take islands that Russia rightfully conquered as the victor in the war, but giving them back to Japanese control will result in the United States putting troops, ships and missiles there. Just imagine the implications of U.S. warheads being THIS CLOSE to Russian territory.
All that China and India need to do is to remain confident and call out the West's diplomatic bluffs. The big irony here is that the two countries hate each other but both of them are very friendly with Russia. A Chinese-Indian-Russian alliance is the last thing that Washington and NATO want, and probably the best chance we have in stopping the total dominance of the globohomo system.
On another note, as an Asian I find it so disappointing and cringe that Japan would kiss globalist ass so much because of their humiliation at losing some islands to the Soviets at the end of World War II. In fact, Japanese media seems to be reviving revanchist sentiments to take back the Sakhalin Islands (called the "Northern Territories" or "Northern Islands" by Japan) from Russia.
Not only is this a fool's errand on the part of Tokyo to use the ongoing war on Ukraine as justification to take islands that Russia rightfully conquered as the victor in the war, but giving them back to Japanese control will result in the United States putting troops, ships and missiles there. Just imagine the implications of U.S. warheads being THIS CLOSE to Russian territory.