Signs of escalation into a World War

josemiguel

Robin
Orthodox
But, if the USA cannot make weapons, why then are they the largest weapon exporter in the world?
Exporter, not producer. Concerning ammunition and missile production, Russia's existing military industry is outproducing America's military industry 26 to 1. I strongly recommend reading this article by the UK's oldest Think Tank.

The United States in one year makes enough artillery ammunition for 2 weeks of combat with Russia.
In one year the United States produces enough anti-tank Javelins for 4 days and a few hours of combat.
In the Iraq-Afghan wars the US ran out of ammo and had to purchase from allies. That is against goat-herders. Unfortunately America's allies don't produce enough ammo either for a peer. The UK will run out of all ammo by the eighth day of combat with Russia.

Russia is not just using far more ammo, shells and missiles than the US expected they had, they are using them in Ukraine in quantities that dwarf all the production of Western nations combined multiple times over.

At a minimum Putin has somehow pulled off secretly building far more military industrial capacity measured in real ammo and weapons than the whole West has put together. Without the west knowing about it!

The US estimated all Russian industry to be the size of Mexico's in nominal terms. What every historian will be writing in two to five decades is that real production beats nominal production, and about the industrial strategy the Russians pulled off over 22 years to hide that much capacity.

For the sense of scale, Russian production vs Western production is even more extreme than the Allies were over the Axis. This is an industrial war, and such a war is lost by the West already. The question is whether the Nato-Nazis will use nuclear weapons again, and if their ranks will follow orders in launching. Even in that scenario, the West will die, while Russia will probably hold onto their heartland. No one has hardened their cities and population centers against nukes like Russia has. Those metros aren't just beautiful.
 

mountainaire

Woodpecker
Orthodox Inquirer
^ Are they using their cold war era stockpiles? I've always heard they have a massive cache of military equipment of all types from the cold war days, which I guess is still operational? Meanwhile the west is constantly phasing out equipment in favor of something newer due to the massive scam/money thieving operation that is the MIC.

Russia seems to be much more efficient with what they have vs the west, but that's just my pleb layman's perspective.
 

Pointy Elbows

Kingfisher
Orthodox
I've been away much lately for personal reasons, but this thread is delivering.

josemiguel's link above is illuminating. The West has really hollowed out manufacturing, if that author is correct (I believe he is). Basically, the West is going to run out of ammo - fast.

Which implies that the window of opportunity for Russia is NOW. Russia needs to meet their strategic objectives, whatever they may be, before the West, particularly the US/Arsenal of Democracy, can rebuild weapon/ammo manufacturing. I think Putin is betting on this.

Which implies the West may have its back to the wall - soon. The options will be a) go nuclear, or b) engage a draft and commit to a long ground war. Crappy as our elites may be, they know that nuke warfare means their nice homes and lives in McLean, VA will get smoked. So otherwise, they get to commit the goyim to a long, bloody fight. This is where I see Samseau's thesis playing out: a draft, miserable and stupid as it will be, and a long ground war with fronts unknown.

A shame that Ukraine is led by a cokehead, beholden to his malicious masters. A solid, patriotic leader would understand the interests and true (if unpleasant) history of his country, now, and sue for peace.
 

Samseau

Eagle
Orthodox
Gold Member
Exporter, not producer. Concerning ammunition and missile production, Russia's existing military industry is outproducing America's military industry 26 to 1. I strongly recommend reading this article by the UK's oldest Think Tank.

The United States in one year makes enough artillery ammunition for 2 weeks of combat with Russia.
In one year the United States produces enough anti-tank Javelins for 4 days and a few hours of combat.
In the Iraq-Afghan wars the US ran out of ammo and had to purchase from allies. That is against goat-herders. Unfortunately America's allies don't produce enough ammo either for a peer. The UK will run out of all ammo by the eighth day of combat with Russia.

Russia is not just using far more ammo, shells and missiles than the US expected they had, they are using them in Ukraine in quantities that dwarf all the production of Western nations combined multiple times over.

At a minimum Putin has somehow pulled off secretly building far more military industrial capacity measured in real ammo and weapons than the whole West has put together. Without the west knowing about it!

The US estimated all Russian industry to be the size of Mexico's in nominal terms. What every historian will be writing in two to five decades is that real production beats nominal production, and about the industrial strategy the Russians pulled off over 22 years to hide that much capacity.

For the sense of scale, Russian production vs Western production is even more extreme than the Allies were over the Axis. This is an industrial war, and such a war is lost by the West already. The question is whether the Nato-Nazis will use nuclear weapons again, and if their ranks will follow orders in launching. Even in that scenario, the West will die, while Russia will probably hold onto their heartland. No one has hardened their cities and population centers against nukes like Russia has. Those metros aren't just beautiful.

Your article contradicts many of your conclusions and supports my conclusions.

Luckily for the US, its gun culture ensured that small arms ammunition industry has a civilian component in the US. This is not the case with other types of ammunition, as shown earlier with Javelin and Stinger missiles. Without access to government methodology, it is impossible to understand why US government estimates were off, but there is a risk that the same errors were made with other types of munitions.

I emphasized the key takeaway here: the US can still manufacture huge amounts of normal ammo because there is a huge gun culture here. I guess we can thank the military for not outlawing guns in the USA, they have probably viewed it as a strategic asset. So, like I've already said, the war will just be using regular conscripts with normal guns and cheap ammo. The (((West))) has tons of cannon fodder and will just be using the huge manpower reserves to whittle down the Russia army over the years/decades. During which time they can increase production in things that they lack, such as Javelins or Stingers.

The article also does not touch upon the US naval production, or US airforce production either. Given that the USA is the largest exporter of weapons in the world, it follows that we are definitely producing lots of stuff, most likely Airforce and Navy, plus small arms. At most, the West's landforce is inferior to Russia's, but not enough such that they cannot sustain a frontline of regular infantry equipped with small arms.

Meanwhile, the West's airforce is probably just as good as Russia's and the Navy is vastly superior.

So, let's break it down:

Axis -

Army: S tier
Navy: D tier
Airforce: A tier
Space: ?

Allies -

Army: C tier
Navy: S tier
Airforce: A tier
Space: ?

Both sides have their strengths and weakness that ensures this conflict is going to last an extremely long time, before the nukes are rolled out.
 

josemiguel

Robin
Orthodox
Are they using their cold war era stockpile
They are using modern artillety and missles that are not compatible with Soviet-era weaponry. The Ukranian paramilitary feeedom-fighters are using stuff from Russia's Soviet days.

The irony is, the West team out of it's Cold War reserves already like Stingers.
Russia seems to be much more efficient with what they have vs the west
The US fires 250k rounds of ammo to kill one enemy combatant. Given Ukraine's admitted death toll rate, the Russians are indeed vastly more efficient.
The West has really hollowed out manufacturing, if that author is correct (I believe he is).
Is not just one author, that's the British Intelligence Complex.
a draft, miserable and stupid as it will be, and a long ground war with fronts unknown.
The fronts are known, probably 3 and possibly a 4th:
Eastern Europe
Pacific
Iran-Turkey
Mexico-Texan border

The draft was abandoned since Americans fled the US en masse to dodge it. America is even less American now, with a substantial population in the SouthWest with a tradition of not getting involved in America's wars.
 

josemiguel

Robin
Orthodox
Your article contradicts many of your conclusions and supports my conclusions
This confirms your lack of reading comprehension. Earlier on your references to Solzhenitsyn left me baffled as it meant at least one of:
A You've never read him
B You didn't understand what you were reading
C You committed the word-concept fallacy and assumed passivism equals passivity, and never bothered to look up what passivism is as a political behavior before criticizing.

My "conclusions" were straight from RUSI in the comment you resounded to.
the US can still manufacture huge amounts of normal ammo because there is a huge gun culture here. I guess we can thank the military for not outlawing guns in the USA, they have probably viewed it as a strategic asset. So, like I've already said, the war will just be using regular conscripts with normal guns and cheap ammo. The (((West))) has tons of cannon fodder and will just be using the huge manpower reserves to whittle down the Russia army over the years/decades. During which time they can increase production in things that they lack, such as Javelins or Stingers.
If you read the article, you'd be aware the US does not have production of any meaningful measure of any ammo larger than a .50 cal among its military industry, and zero in its civilian industry.

You either don't have decent reading comprehension, or you are gaslighting by claiming anything and everything supports your claims regardless of the content.

As British intelligence points out, the US can't make stinger missles now, and won't be able to make any more until at least till 2026. Concerning Javelins, by 2026 the US will have enough capacity to make 8 days worth a year by 2026.
At most, the West's landforce is inferior to Russia's, but not enough such that they cannot sustain a frontline of regular infantry e
The US will be out of ammo in 2 weeks on the Russian front.

Those "normal conscripts" you keep harping on will die without inflicting any losses on Russia. Artillery is the queen of the battlefield.

There is no civilian industry for the US to comandeer for artillery and missle production, let alone bombs.

If you will not counter a single argument I put forth, and continue to gaslight that you are always right regardless of all evidence to the contrary, then there is no point in conversing with you. You are free to live in a delusion bubble, don't be suprised you can't game people into joining you in it.
 

Samseau

Eagle
Orthodox
Gold Member
This confirms your lack of reading comprehension. Earlier on your references to Solzhenitsyn left me baffled as it meant at least one of:
A You've never read him
B You didn't understand what you were reading
C You committed the word-concept fallacy and assumed passivism equals passivity, and never bothered to look up what passivism is as a political behavior before criticizing.

Solzhenitsyn lamented the lack of action on behalf of those sent to the gulags. His famous quote was that if people at least went down fighting, far fewer overall would have been imprisoned.

As British intelligence points out, the US can't make stinger missles now, and won't be able to make any more until at least till 2026. Concerning Javelins, by 2026 the US will have enough capacity to make 8 days worth a year by 2026.

The US will be out of ammo in 2 weeks on the Russian front.

Those "normal conscripts" you keep harping on will die without inflicting any losses on Russia. Artillery is the queen of the battlefield.

False, air superiority is the queen. Artillery is the rook. And navy is the best artillery of them all, naval battleships have the greatest range out any cannons, but they are limited to the sea.

I foresee a small arms force of US forces being backed up by Navy and Air, raiding along the coastlines of China and Russia in the next decade. It is an extremely powerful tactic, one that's been used for millennia. China can quickly be incapacitated but Russia will be a tough nut to crack as obviously most of it is contained within land.

There is no civilian industry for the US to comandeer for artillery and missle production, let alone bombs.

If you will not counter a single argument I put forth, and continue to gaslight that you are always right regardless of all evidence to the contrary, then there is no point in conversing with you. You are free to live in a delusion bubble, don't be suprised you can't game people into joining you in it.

You're the one living in a bubble. Ignoring air and navy basically means you don't care about reality.

You also ignore the fact that Russian artillery factories may be within targetable range of NATO forces, but production of American forces are on another continent and can never be hit.

This doesn't look like a one-sided matchup at all, but you are obviously partisan to the Russian side, facts be damned.
 

911

Peacock
Catholic
Gold Member
^Russia has the best anti-access/area denial (A2/AD), anti-air defense systems, not just in quality but also in quantity and density. NATO planes won't be able to operate near the frontline.

The reason why Russian jets can't operate freely over the Ukraine skies today (esp over the center and west) is that the Ukies still have a couple of dozen S-300 Soviet era AA systems they hide in barns and shuffle around the country. Russia has thousands of those missiles, and thousands more of even better modern systems that might well be able to track F35s.

They also have the best electronic warfare systems in the world, most of which they still haven't used, saving them in anticipation of an escalation with NATO.

NATO will not be able to establish air superiority anywhere near a frontline with Russia. Conscripts with guns are going to get slaughtered in a completely uneven 10 to 1 artillery battle, the same way the Ukies are getting slaughtered today.

Even if you assume that NATO will want to tussle with Russia no matter what, the notion that NATO countries will be able to throw conscripts by the thousands or the tens of thousands into the uncontested Russian artillery barrage is completely fantastic. This is what you have to work with for starts:

fight-for-Europe.png

and to make things worse, most of that minority of people in the West who are willing to die fighting for their country are not on board with the deep state agenda, in fact that segment of native conservatives tends to be the designated domestic enemy...


The US MIC data is also mostly irrelevant. The weapons the US sells are not adapted to the Ukraine war, they tend to be high-maintenance, overpriced systems that cannot be produced in high numbers. The only good systems the US MIC produces today are the older generation fighter jets, F16, F15, F18s, but those are negated by Russian AA systems.

Which means that NATO cannot counter Russia in the short term. They might be able to do it in the long term, provided they have deep reforms of their MIC. The timing as well is horrible, the West is plunged in the worst economic crisis since the Great Depression, and things could get even worse than that because back in the 1930s there was plenty of cheap energy around, not the case today.
 
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911

Peacock
Catholic
Gold Member
Exporter, not producer. Concerning ammunition and missile production, Russia's existing military industry is outproducing America's military industry 26 to 1. I strongly recommend reading this article by the UK's oldest Think Tank.

The United States in one year makes enough artillery ammunition for 2 weeks of combat with Russia.
In one year the United States produces enough anti-tank Javelins for 4 days and a few hours of combat.
In the Iraq-Afghan wars the US ran out of ammo and had to purchase from allies. That is against goat-herders. Unfortunately America's allies don't produce enough ammo either for a peer. The UK will run out of all ammo by the eighth day of combat with Russia.

Russia is not just using far more ammo, shells and missiles than the US expected they had, they are using them in Ukraine in quantities that dwarf all the production of Western nations combined multiple times over.

At a minimum Putin has somehow pulled off secretly building far more military industrial capacity measured in real ammo and weapons than the whole West has put together. Without the west knowing about it!

The US estimated all Russian industry to be the size of Mexico's in nominal terms. What every historian will be writing in two to five decades is that real production beats nominal production, and about the industrial strategy the Russians pulled off over 22 years to hide that much capacity.

For the sense of scale, Russian production vs Western production is even more extreme than the Allies were over the Axis. This is an industrial war, and such a war is lost by the West already. The question is whether the Nato-Nazis will use nuclear weapons again, and if their ranks will follow orders in launching. Even in that scenario, the West will die, while Russia will probably hold onto their heartland. No one has hardened their cities and population centers against nukes like Russia has. Those metros aren't just beautiful.

One data point I've picked up was that last Spring, the factory that produces Kalibr cruise missiles hired 500 more workers.

The US MIC is in a conundrum, they have so thoroughly dominated the political system that the corruption has become endemic in their design and operation. The other major issue is that it is set up to fight midsize middle eastern countries like Iraq or Iran. In other words, the MIC is the tool of domestic profiteers and is designed for zionist endless wars.

In contrast, the entire Russian military doctrine is based on fighting and winning wars on its western borders. NATO doesn't have a chance in the short term, and I am not sure if in the long term they will be able to enact the fundamental transformation that will allow them to counter Russia, because that change would go against their very nature.
 

JohnKreese

Pelican
Catholic
^Russia has the best anti-access/area denial (A2/AD), anti-air defense systems, not just in quality but also in quantity and density. NATO planes won't be able to operate near the frontline.

The reason why Russian jets can't operate freely over the Ukraine skies today (esp over the center and west) is that the Ukies still have a couple of dozen S-300 Soviet era AA systems they hide in barns and shuffle around the country. Russia has thousands of those missiles, and thousands more of even better modern systems that might well be able to track F35s.

They also have the best electronic warfare systems in the world, most of which they still haven't used, saving them in anticipation of an escalation with NATO.

NATO will not be able to establish air superiority anywhere near a frontline with Russia. Conscripts with guns are going to get slaughtered in a completely uneven 10 to 1 artillery battle, the same way the Ukies are getting slaughtered today.

Even if you assume that NATO will want to tussle with Russia no matter what, the notion that NATO countries will be able to throw conscripts by the thousands or the tens of thousands into the uncontested Russian artillery barrage is completely fantastic. This is what you have to work with for starts:

fight-for-Europe.png

and to make things worse, most of that minority of people in the West who are willing to die fighting for their country are not on board with the deep state agenda, in fact that segment of native conservatives tends to be the designated domestic enemy...


The US MIC data is also mostly irrelevant. The weapons the US sells are not adapted to the Ukraine war, they tend to be high-maintenance, overpriced systems that cannot be produced in high numbers. The only good systems the US MIC produces today are the older generation fighter jets, F16, F15, F18s, but those are negated by Russian AA systems.

Which means that NATO cannot counter Russia in the short term. They might be able to do it in the long term, provided they have deep reforms of their MIC. The timing as well is horrible, the West is plunged in the worst economic crisis since the Great Depression, and things could get even worse than that because back in the 1930s there was plenty of cheap energy around, not the case today.
To slightly piggyback off of this (and in the spirit of this topic), I feel like we're going to see more and more articles like this in the coming weeks and months:

Press Roundup: Hungarians Willing to Defend Their Country – Poll


The article mentions attitudes of Hungarians towards the war and about a potential draft. It goes on to mention these attitudes as they relate to regional neighbors (Slovakia, Romania, Czechia) where similar polls have recently been administered.

The powers that be are obviously planting the seeds of war and conscription into the population, likely priming everyone for what they're planning and for what is to come.
 

911

Peacock
Catholic
Gold Member
The question about Hungary is, which side will they be fighting for? :laugh:

Poland is the one major country with a population that can be egged on to fight Russia. Czechoslaoakia too, to a lesser extent.

The northwestern Protestant countries are more likely to fall in line as well with the NATO liberal western order, while in France, Italy Spain etc the military types are socially conservative Catholics who are not going to die fighting for the Gay Disco. They tend to be sympathetic to Orthodox Russia and view the main enemy as the NWO. Same with southern Orthodox in Greece, Blugaria.

But even in Protestant countries like Holland today, those conservative-leaning rural type potential conscripts are being literally shot up in protests by deep state goons, horrible timing for them to start a mass conscription...
 

Samseau

Eagle
Orthodox
Gold Member
I would say the polls mean nothing, the sheeple are easily manipulated to do whatever the chews want. If their screens told them to jump off a cliff they would, if it said to go march into Russia they would do that. People believe whatever is on their screens and manipulating them will probably be the least of the chews problems.

Far bigger problems are energy and industry, as mentioned. The sheeple don't stand a chance against the tidal wave of propaganda to come.
 

josemiguel

Robin
Orthodox
I foresee a small arms force of US forces being backed up by Navy and Air, raiding along the coastlines of China and Russia in the next decade. It is an extremely powerful tactic, one that's been used for millennia. China can quickly be incapacitated but Russia will be a tough nut to crack as obviously most of it is contained within land.
Any naval group advancing within 1200 miles of either the Chinese or Russian coast will be immediately destroyed. Land-based anti-ship missile defenses have rendered the Aircraft Carrier useless for power projection in peer-to-peer conflict. The US navy has been quite frank about this since 2016 concerning missile swarms. Now Hypersonic missiles are in their arsenals, which have no counter at all.
You're the one living in a bubble. Ignoring air and navy basically means you don't care about reality.
I have done no such thing, you merely assert this being so.
production of American forces are on another continent and can never be hit.
You make the claim Intercontinental Ballistic Missiles and Hypersonic Missiles do not exist?
You just asserted I am the one ignoring air!
This doesn't look like a one-sided matchup at all, but you are obviously partisan to the Russian side, facts be damned.
Who's currently dying?
Which side can reliably identify what is a woman?
Which side outnumbers the other one 26 to 1 in military industrial capacity?
Which side has short supply chains?
Which side has energy independence?
Which side was the only nation in the world that trained their military at the strategic level for the last 29 years?
Which side isn't shutting down their food production?
Which side isn't hated by the rest of the World outside of the West?
Which side has a government run by men who can bench at least their own body weight?
Which side isn't ruled by bankers?

My narrative matches reality. The narrative you give does not.

His famous quote was that if people at least went down fighting
So you have not read Solzhenitsyn. I recommend refraining from quote-mining.
False, air superiority is the queen. Artillery is the rook. And navy is the best artillery of them all, naval battleships have the greatest range out any cannons, but they are limited to the sea.
I actually erred here, artillery is not the Queen of the battlefield, it is the King. Imagine if you too had the courage to admit error!

Thank you for demonstrating your lack of knowledge of military science.
 

mountainaire

Woodpecker
Orthodox Inquirer
I would say the polls mean nothing, the sheeple are easily manipulated to do whatever the chews want.
This is true to an extent, but I believe we are currently witnessing their control apparatus beginning to break down.

Things are happening too quickly now. They don't have complete control over public discourse like they had with the baby boomer generation. Now, information flows via too many avenues, and they are struggling to keep up.

I know it's easy to get blackpilled about things. There will always be a certain segment of the population that will be mindless vessels for the latest globohomo agitprop, but people can be yanked out of that, too. I'm living proof.

I think Trump and the 2016 election was a major catalyst that caused a lot of people to drift outside of what the ruling elite deem to be acceptable kosher approved politics. What we've seen in the last two years has been their response to that, which has backfired in their faces in many ways.

As bad as things look for us, I don't think the picture is all sunshine and roses for them either. Their actions have consequences, too. More and more I get the feeling that what we're witnessing are the wails of a dying beast. The lockdowns, blatantly rigged elections, censorship, increasingly ineffective propaganda, these are not the moves of a comfortable ruler. Something went wrong on their end. They miscalculated.
 

Easy_C

Peacock
I would say the polls mean nothing, the sheeple are easily manipulated to do whatever the chews want. If their screens told them to jump off a cliff they would, if it said to go march into Russia they would do that. People believe whatever is on their screens and manipulating them will probably be the least of the chews problems.

They kinda did. I poked around a few places when they were aggressively beating the war drums and even at the peak of the hysteria even the most rabid Russia haters all backed down when I hinted that we all needed to enlist to help fight Russia. The closest any person got towards supporting that was rebutting an accusation of not doing enough by saying their family members were in the military.
 

COtrailrider

Robin
Gnostic or New Age
The challenge I see in combating the parasite class is how organized can 'we' get? If we're relegated to small mediums such as RVF, pockets of Telegram, etc., it'll be difficult to counter them. They have their tentacles in the critical institutions that are influencing, or leading, change. We can't look to a political class that doesn't care about us to bring the needed change.

Many on the right are seeing how the 'back the blue' movement will backfire against them - look at how Canadian police treated the truckers, and how Dutch police are shooting at farmers in their tractors. Consider how unvaxxed military and police have been purged in recent times. These institutions were always about protecting the interests of the parasite class, and now they have a higher proportion of yes men (and Xi/Xers) in their ranks. Think they'll suddenly develop a conscious? I refer people to the book "Ordinary Men" which shows what the average Joe (or Hans) is capable of during times of great change.

We need more grassroots movements. Vaclav Havel was the former president of Czechoslovakia and provided many valuable insights about how to create parallel systems under Soviet oppression. I've learned a lot from his works and he's inspired me to put some of my content into the world in the fight against tyranny. We need to get organized and spread truth every chance we get. About the cerveza sickness, the psyop in Ukraine unfolding, CBDCs, etc.

 

Elipe

Ostrich
Protestant
If they do, then how come there is no fighting outside Ukraine?
The i's have to be dotted and the t's crossed. For narrative purposes, the US and the WW3 "Allies" must not be seen as the instigators of WW3. The historical narrative is that those who start world wars are the "bad guys". So they're playing a game of brinkmanship with Russia to try to goad them into starting WW3.

"WW3 was started because the US attacked Russia from bases stationed along Russia's borders" just doesn't sound as good as "Putin is literally Hitler and is invading NATO countries because um... Hitler, okay?!"
 
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