Signs of escalation into a World War

Sherman

Ostrich
Orthodox Inquirer
I wonder if Pelosi has been ordered by her Jewish overlords to make this invasion of Chinese territory, as Israel identifies with Taiwan. Biden has been in office only a few years and we already have a war in the Ukraine and now they are going out of their way to provoke China despite massive problems for US workers like inflation. The interests of the elites are always served first. The people’s interests come last. The American people no longer believe the lies of the Democratic party that they represent the interests of the people.
 

Thomas More

Crow
Protestant
I'm very glad you mentioned submarines. In the era of hypersonic anti-ship missiles, modern Navies will have to focus on building more and better submarines if they want to operate within a few hundred miles of hostile coast. I personally think if nuclear submarines are cost prohibitive, there is nothing wrong with diesel submarines. Other nations have quite competent diesel submarines, and you don't even need them to be extremely stealthy, just moreso than surface ships, and with the added inherent ability of being essentially immune to hypersonic anti-ship missiles unless surfaced. I think there should even be submersible escort carriers, since our current fleet carriers are just massive, albeit fast, targets.

I know Russia has some extremely competent submarines (particularly the Severodvinsk Class), but they are not numerous.

I have my reservations about the capabilities of the Chinese submarine force. For one, they are by and large smaller and less stealthy hulls which leads me to believe the US Navy would be able to pick them off from a distance and not give them much, or any, time to react.

Also, yes, the US military is losing competence, but the Chinese military is not without her weaknesses. Their maritime navigators are known to be terrible and their fighter pilots, with already inferior training, are now dramatically cutting their fighter pilots' training.

I think in a fair assessment of the two countries military capabilities would be as follows:

US
  • Declining power
  • Advanced equipment, minus hypersonic missiles
  • Superior training for fighter pilots, for now
  • Overall superior air force and navy
China
  • Larger industry
  • Superior morale - questionable how much superior though with their lockdowns and suppression of dissent
  • Rising power
  • Home field advantage; can utilize shore based installations and weapons, including hypersonic missiles
It has all the markings of a Thucydides Trap, where a rising power and an established yet declining power come into conflict. China has every interest to not escalate, assuming their General Secretary is not facing pressure to escalate conflict due to jingoistic tendencies within his military and from his people, but I do not believe this to be the case due to looking at Chinese history - they are much more capable of delayed gratification, so to speak, than the US Empire.

Edit: I will also mention that the US still has a somewhat effective meritocracy in place to choose her submariners and fighter pilots - it is nowhere near as bad as in the surface fleet or among more logistics and bureaucratic oriented parts of the military.
I agree with everything you wrote here. A minor nitpick: I've seen now in multiple places how the US-China conflict is a classic Thucydides Trap. However, this term was only invented recently, and it was invented to describe the US-China situation. So, it really can't be a classic example. It's the defining example of a recently invented term.

It is a useful concept. I think people mix up the fact that Thucydides is a figure from classical history, and think the concept is classic as well.
 

GuitarVH

Pelican
Orthodox Inquirer
They're colorful enough

2018

2019

The symbol of the Jewish Liberal Order really is gayness in all of its various forms. Progress (aka descent into debauchery and degeneracy) is epitomized by gay marriage legalization.

The vast majority of the world finds it despicable and revolting, including a huge number of people in the generally tolerant Western world. How can this sickness possibly stand?
 

GigaBITE

Sparrow
Oriental Orthodox
That "tolerance" is engineered and programmed from the top. Ostensibly liberal California rejecting gay marriage in 2008 shook them, so they regrouped and decided to accelerate the messaging and subversion. A little over a decade later and Republicans are bowing down to the LGBT.

If only genuine conservatives had that kind of mass media control. Instead most have to work within the confines of Faux News or retreat into the wilderness.
 

Max Roscoe

Ostrich
Orthodox Inquirer
What's the supposed reason for her going there possibly? Diplomacy and strength or assisting the morale of an ally?
The Jewish spirit is a feminist spirit. And we are under Jewish leadership with a 75% Jewish cabinet. We have a feminist foreign policy based on emotional and illogical reaction that contradicts our written law.

The US switched recognition from Taipei to Beijing in 1978 and officially supports a "One China" policy, united behind Beijing. It does so in formal written agreements, and on its government's own web pages. And yet it does these schizophrenic pro-Taiwan actions all the while hiding behind its supposed Beijing policy.

It's a purely feminine action. A masculine action would be to take a side, and say this is our position, and we are going to support it (of course, America shouldn't have any position at all about the government of other countries).

What the US is doing, is very similar to the Asia Argento / Anthony Bourdain relationship, where privately she was telling him she loved him and was in a relationship with him together but publicly was going out and doing stuff like this:

morgan-asia-argento1-900x730.jpg


And then when Bourdain questions her just falls back on her "official One Boyfriend policy." Playing these mind games is even more damaging than just admitting the cheating, and it is pure female behavior. And it caused Bourdain to kill himself. If she just broke up with him, he'd still be around today.

China is not "bluffing" per se. They do not want Nancy Pelosi coming and spreading more of the Anal Values of the west into their people. So they use very harsh language, even threats, to strongly discourage her from doing so. But they also don't want to be triggered any more than a man wants to lose his frame and let a woman's antics push him into anger. So they will not retaliate.

But as I've said before, the risk of a China invasion of Taiwan is low. China considers the Taiwainese people their own and does not want to hurt them. The one risky factor here is the US, and we are very much in danger of *causing* a Chinese invasion of Taiwan. There is only so much they will tolerate, and it's simply not possible to stop China from doing what it likes to Taiwan over the long term, just as it's not possible to stop Russia from doing things in Ukraine.

A logical, masculine way of handing things would be to come up with a plan, a strategy, a compromise, and present the bargain to Putin or Xi, and work something out, in the Kissinger-esque RealPolitik way that the US used to handle things. Instead, we are acting a whole lot like the woman as Sean Connery explains here.

 

Elipe

Ostrich
Protestant
But they also don't want to be triggered any more than a man wants to lose his frame and let a woman's antics push him into anger.
What doesn't make sense to me is that this is seen as "maintaining frame" in a feminist society where the government actively punishes any man who actually uses force to keep his woman in line. But in non-feminist societies, isn't this actually seen as a cuck move since it demonstrates that the woman is getting away with antics and you're not doing anything about it?

I get that you look cool by acting stoic about it... but when it's the 10th, 50th, 100th time the woman does it and you do nothing, you're just a laughingstock.

I guess that's why on Twitter everybody is currently taunting Chinese users about it. Even the Taiwanese are laughing at the Chinese on Twitter. Keeping that pimp hand strong, China. Meanwhile, the US invades every country that looks at it sideways.
 

Max Roscoe

Ostrich
Orthodox Inquirer
In a normal society, the way to handle a woman acting out publicly would be to privately take actions (rebuking her, taking away her allowance, depriving her of your time which they crave, talking to her parents, the Sean Connery method, etc), but not to publicly flip your lid and get into whatever argument she is goading you into--that would be failure.

The reality is, Nancy visiting there does very little harm to China. They just really don't like it. It is rude and disrespectful, and this is a society where you are expected to be respectful even to your adversary. This is why you bow to your opponent before a sumo or karate match.

So reacting emotionally to the visit of some irrelevant and incoherent old lady who is an uninvited guest by taking some weird aggressive action is not a tactic they will take. Instead, they will privately reply by expanding BRICS, coordinating with Russia, making peaceful overtures to Iran, Syria, Africa, building 30 new chip manufacturing plants, making mutual economic development agreements all over the world, etc. These actions are not "doing nothing". Anyway, China does not want Taiwan as badly as the Americans think, or at least has no deadline to integrate it. These people think in decades or centuries. Conversely, America of just a few years ago is basically unrecognizable.

Anyway, don't believe any propaganda on social media. The reality on the ground is different. Here's some Taiwanese people in Taiwan protesting Nancy Pelosi's visit.

Pelosi is staying at the Grand Hyatt there, and you can clearly see the Taipei 101 building in the background.

taiwan-protest-sh-ps-220802_1659447004411_hpEmbed_3x2_992.jpg


60987151-11072941-image-a-44_1659452751688.jpg


See the yellow banner saying Respect Republic Of China? ROC is Taiwan. These are Taiwanese saying Pelosi is disrespecting Taiwan by coming there uninvited and antagonizing the ethnic Chinese people both there and on the mainland. (Please, someone who speaks Chinese translate the middle image!)



She's doing nothing there but making life difficult for the Taiwanese and the Chinese. And probably encouraging some future economic action which will harm Americans.

Meanwhile, China works to gain more allies around the world and plays the long game.



The only question is whose idea was it to have Pelosi visit there and why is the Biden entity claiming it's a bad idea?
Tune in to Sean Hannity tonight for coverage of this drama!
 
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Elipe

Ostrich
Protestant
Instead, they will privately reply by expanding BRICS, coordinating with Russia, making peaceful overtures to Iran, Syria, Africa, building 30 new chip manufacturing plants, making mutual economic development agreements all over the world, etc.
The problem is that's what they're already doing, so this isn't really going to be seen as "in response to" Pelosi's trip. It just comes across as "the wall is now 10 feet higher!" rhetoric we saw in 2015-2016.

As for your pictures, keep in mind that Westernized societies tend to have politically opposed factions showing up to protest pretty much everything. It's like pointing to an abortion clinic with pro-life protesters and saying "look how Christian America is :)" while ignoring the rot that runs deep. I don't think you should be that surprised or energized by the fact that there are pro-Chinese factions in Taiwan. Now if you had pro-Taiwanese protesters in a heavily censored state like China running around, maybe that indicates something... but Taiwan? Again, it's like pointing to a Trump rally and gloating over the imminent draining of the swamp. You're still free to attend Trump rallies because chews don't see these as dangerous to them.

Meanwhile, China works to gain more allies around the world and plays the long game.
Other countries are going to start wondering if China would actually come to their aid if they got in trouble for allying with China. This is one thing the Russians are at least doing more wisely; they are proving that they are dependable allies. But the Taiwan situation, if allowed to brew for too long, could start really costing China because it would end up characterizing them as fair-weather allies. Not to mention that everybody knows that China will gleefully screw everybody else in economic deals if they see the opportunity, so China has to be handled carefully as an ally.

The only question is whose idea was it to have Pelosi visit there and why is the Biden entity claiming it's a bad idea?
I think they were trying to goad China into making good on their threats and Biden was trying to provide some kind of plausible deniability. But it's proven that all China does is bark. I see it as similar to a humiliation ritual, where the chews go and transgress ever more and more boundaries just to prove that they can, and to humiliate you because they can cross those boundaries while maintaining firm eye contact with you with a smug poop-eating grin.
 

GigaBITE

Sparrow
Oriental Orthodox
Churchill called Russia "a riddle, wrapped in a mystery, inside an enigma," but these days I think that might better apply to China. People in the West read the great Russian authors and are at least somewhat familiar with Russia in a way they really aren't with China. This ignorance of China and the Chinese canon goes for much of the world, honestly. We expect them to behave in a way we're used to most great powers behaving, and we're confused, even irritated, when they don't.

Don't for a second think that just because I like seeing the Global American Empire challenged that I am necessarily thrilled its greatest challenger is this atheistic and culturally alien entity. I'd rather have a Christian superpower running things. These days, Russia, despite its myriad problems, really feels like the only one left that could be considered one, although I wouldn't be opposed to more emerging...
 

Biscuits_Gravy

Woodpecker
Catholic
The problem is that's what they're already doing, so this isn't really going to be seen as "in response to" Pelosi's trip. It just comes across as "the wall is now 10 feet higher!" rhetoric we saw in 2015-2016.

As for your pictures, keep in mind that Westernized societies tend to have politically opposed factions showing up to protest pretty much everything. It's like pointing to an abortion clinic with pro-life protesters and saying "look how Christian America is :)" while ignoring the rot that runs deep. I don't think you should be that surprised or energized by the fact that there are pro-Chinese factions in Taiwan. Now if you had pro-Taiwanese protesters in a heavily censored state like China running around, maybe that indicates something... but Taiwan? Again, it's like pointing to a Trump rally and gloating over the imminent draining of the swamp. You're still free to attend Trump rallies because chews don't see these as dangerous to them.


Other countries are going to start wondering if China would actually come to their aid if they got in trouble for allying with China. This is one thing the Russians are at least doing more wisely; they are proving that they are dependable allies. But the Taiwan situation, if allowed to brew for too long, could start really costing China because it would end up characterizing them as fair-weather allies. Not to mention that everybody knows that China will gleefully screw everybody else in economic deals if they see the opportunity, so China has to be handled carefully as an ally.


I think they were trying to goad China into making good on their threats and Biden was trying to provide some kind of plausible deniability. But it's proven that all China does is bark.
I tend to agree with this assessment. Russia barked a lot but here they are now after virtually being cornered.
 

Max Roscoe

Ostrich
Orthodox Inquirer
The problem is that's what they're already doing, so this isn't really going to be seen as "in response to" Pelosi's trip. It just comes across as "the wall is now 10 feet higher!" rhetoric we saw in 2015-2016.

As for your pictures, keep in mind that Westernized societies tend to have politically opposed factions showing up to protest pretty much everything. It's like pointing to an abortion clinic with pro-life protesters and saying "look how Christian America is :)"
In western societies sure.
In Asia it is not normal. I've been to Taiwan and frankly I was surprised seeing pictures of these protesters.

Anyway, it seems they get more people than America can manage to oppose antifa marches (even if Patriot Front wasn't arrested for trying to excercise their freedom of speech).
Other countries are going to start wondering if China would actually come to their aid if they got in trouble for allying with China.
I doubt this. China has a thousand different ways to respond. It hasn't even been 24 hours. They understand revenge is a dish best served cold. What should they do, shoot down the plane of the 3rd in command of the USA? They should become the aggressor? We are talking about rude behavior by a declining superpower, not any real transgression. Remember, China knows America will be irrelevant in 100 years no matter what they do. They should start a war between 2 nuclear countries why exactly?

What would America do if "evil Russia" or China flew in some dissident to Puerto Rico to meet with revolutionaries there. Even America is not psycho enough to just shoot the plane out of the sky.

I think in the coming weeks we will see some action. It won't be good for us, or the Taiwanese or anyone. Because we are causing a political crisis for no reason. Anyway, remember her plane still has to take off :cool:
 
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