Signs of escalation into a World War

Samseau

Eagle
Orthodox
Gold Member
Max, I think your analysis is fundamentally wrong. Time is not on China's side here. The problem is that Taiwan's leadership represents an existential threat to the CCP. The leaders of Taiwan are credibly Chinese, and descendants of a prior dynasty, so, if they were ever to be seated in the capital of Beijing, then they could claim the mandate of heaven title and rule China.

It's obvious the boss chews turned their back on Xi and instead want the rulers of Taiwan to take over China instead. That is why there is no contradiction here: chews accept there is one China, but they do not accept the people running China. Instead, they keep alive and defend the only other contenders to the throne, the Taiwanese.

This was made clear when Soros announced that Xi must go:

It is to be hoped that Xi Jinping may be replaced by someone less repressive at home and more peaceful abroad," Soros said. "This would remove the greatest threat that open societies face today, and they should do everything within their power to encourage China to move in the desired direction.

I think the long term play is pretty obvious here. They want to subvert China into a democracy vis-à-vis Taiwan.

If China lets Taiwan continue to exist, they will always have an ever present challenge to their rule and constant source of instability at home. Combined with chews pumping hundreds of trillions into Taiwan in order to take over China from within, it's probably only a matter of a generation or two before the people of China end up following the leaders of Taiwan without even realizing it.

Thus, if China does not take over Taiwan, they will eventually lose to chewish money. The Chinese think they can court the chews and take their money, but notice how you see major business leaders that keep needing to be arrested and "re-educated" such as Jack Ma? That's because the CCP is playing whack-a-mole with all of their new business tycoons who are constantly being seduced by chewish money. But for every Jack Ma they take down, chews will subvert ten more. Ultimately it's a losing battle for the CCP unless they can control Taiwan, which is the way most foreign money enters through China since Taiwanese banks are linked to Chinese banks.

Taiwan is the backdoor into China, and unless the CCP forcefully close it, I predict they will lose. So for them not to attack Piglosi and look weak in the face of such a threat to their rule portends very badly for their future. Unlike Russia, which has the courage to face chewish aggression, the CCP is typically Chinese, too greedy and fearful of losing money to make the right decisions.

It's also possible that the Chinese military is entirely a paper tiger incapable of defending China as well. Either China is weak, or unwilling; either case results in defeat.
 
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Max Roscoe

Ostrich
Orthodox Inquirer
@Samseau that's certainly a possible outcome in China.

But I'm not sure the Chinese see it that way. And understanding the Asian mindset is extremely difficult for most westerners to do. I'm not that capable of doing so myself, though my experiences there and my talks with a Taiwanese friend here in the US allow me to understand them just enough to at least know where and how they differ from a western mindset, even if I cannot predict what that difference will exactly be.

The idea of Taiwan taking over China seems pretty unrealistic. Taiwan is a very small country. It has essentially the same culture and history and philosophy as the mainland, only they are trying gay stuff and democracy, but it's not going to work out well for them. Will they face a backlash from their own people? The Chinese are a very practical people. If it works, they assimilate it. That's why they are both communist and capitalist, taking what works from each system. Is democracy and feminism offering them anything other than the tiny Asian female hands building motherboards?

Anyway, at the end of the day, the Chinese and the Taiwanese are the same people, of the same spirit, and they wish to be reunited. The same is true for the Koreans. In both cases, if it weren't for American meddling, there is a good chance they would be reunited already (In Korea's case willingly, in Taiwan's case maybe less so, though the people in both countries want to be reunited, under whatever government).

Remember, America is just a breakaway British territory. At one time viewed as a great threat to the UK. By 1812 they didn't even care about conquering us even though they sacked D.C. And today we are essentially the same nation state again (despite a few cultural differences).

So predicting what happens between two supposed feuding rivals of the same ethnic stock is not an easy guess to make. And it's compounded much more by the differences in the Asian vs European mind.

Anyway, yes the long term plan for all societies is to force them into democracies, which is secular mob rule. And that seemed to be inevitable until Ukraine. There is momentum finally building in the other direction, and we can only hope and pray it continues, if for no other reason that to provide a bulwark against one world globohomo.

But I have a hard time imagining any scenario where drowning Nancy Pelosi in the ocean comes across as anything other than completely unhinged, and likely to start a war. If the appropriate response for a subversive politician visiting your land against your wishes is murder, what is the appropriate response when a nation's top leader is assassinated during a peaceful visit? War over Nancy Pelosi is the dumbest idea I've heard of since Covid-19.
 

Samseau

Eagle
Orthodox
Gold Member
@Samseau that's certainly a possible outcome in China.

The idea of Taiwan taking over China seems pretty unrealistic. Taiwan is a very small country.

So is Israel. What's your point? Israel is a small country and yet owns a much larger ones.

Anyway, at the end of the day, the Chinese and the Taiwanese are the same people, of the same spirit, and they wish to be reunited.

Correct, which is why to the average Chinese it doesn't matter who is ruling from Beijing, as long as they can unite the country. That's how it's always been in Chinaland.

But I have a hard time imagining any scenario where drowning Nancy Pelosi in the ocean comes across as anything other than completely unhinged, and likely to start a war. If the appropriate response for a subversive politician visiting your land against your wishes is murder, what is the appropriate response when a nation's top leader is assassinated during a peaceful visit? War over Nancy Pelosi is the dumbest idea I've heard of since Covid-19.

It would be as good as any excuse to start a war and stop the subversion of your government. Just like Putin had his demands, which seemed unrealistic to many, he made good on his threats and Russia is safer today as a result.

China just yells and screams and does nothing. Paper tiger. If China wanted to play the long game, it would have been much smarter just to say and do nothing. Strategic ambiguity is far superior to making empty threats. And this is more than just Pelosi. America is arming Taiwan to the teeth, just like Ukraine. The longer China waits, the worse it gets for them. Time is 100% against them and unless China does something within the next 20 years I don't see how they prevent themselves from being subverted.
 

DeWoken

Woodpecker
Orthodox Inquirer
I doubt China wants to get involved directly. Brazil, India and South Africa, will not get involved. At best they will remain neutral and continue to trade with Russia. China may begin to supply arms to Russia.
Whoops, I didn't mean to start discussion in the news thread. Yesterday I had a long day and got a bit out of it by the end - sorry. Maybe this is the correct thread, or the lounge.

I am hearing that the media isn't covering the Ukraine situation as much lately and is more concerned with China. And here's an interesting bit of news.
 

Samseau

Eagle
Orthodox
Gold Member

North Korea sending in troops is obviously because it is entirely in their advantage to do so. However, I also strongly suspect there will be many Chinese units mixed in there, and the North Korea front is just a disguise to hide Chinese activity. There's no way North Korea does anything without Xi's command, so this is 100% in retaliation over Taiwan. China cannot afford a Russian loss in Ukraine, I've always said this from the day 1 of this war, you will see Chinese troops in Ukraine before NATO troops.

I believe Chinese troops will be entering Ukraine with the Koreans. Also, these troops aren't necessarily per se because Russia is losing, but, rather, the consequences of Russia losing are so damaging to China/NK's long term interests that the Asian mind finds insurance in such cases to be prudent and acceptable. They get troop training as well, which they will most likely need if they have to fight off the US Navy.

Keep in mind this isn't the first time China has done this, they did so in both Korea and Vietnam. When the stakes are high the Chinese play to win.
 

911

Peacock
Catholic
Gold Member
China isn't going to intervene in Ukraine, because they still want to leave some room for incentive for the US to back off on Taiwan, they want to keep some carrots on the table. As well now that tensions are flaring in Taiwan, China will not want to get involved in Ukraine in a big way, the situation in their own backyard is going to require their full attention. China is already helping Russia immensely just by escalating in Taiwan, because the US now can no longer focus all of its attention on Ukraine with Nancy & co having set the country on a warpath with China.

What China will do is start sending a small rotating contingent on the Ukraine front in order to fine tune their weaponry and give some of their troops some experience in real battle situations.

North Korea is largely dependent on China, but for them, this is the kind of smart move that will move some of their eggs into the Russian basket and reduce that big dependency on China. Russia has everything that they need, even more than China: grain, oil, metals, weapons and even tech (esp military tech). NK going in with Russia also raises Russia's profile in the Asia-Pacific scene and its overall diplomatic stature and global standing.

And NK has a whole lot to offer Russia: they have a huge amount of ammo and Russian hardware (esp MLRS). Their drones don't look very advanced though, they seem about 20-30 years behind Iran's or Turkey's, so for them it's the opportunity to learn and acquire new tech. But what they can offer is huge depth in manufacturing basic Russian-compatible munitions and hardware, at a high volume, and at abysmally low cost. Lots of ammo, trucks, cannons, MLRS, rockets for wheat & oil, which the Russians at this point have more than they could use and are selling at a discount to India and others.

The manpower aspect is also a very important. Russia won't use 100,000 N. Koreans, but they will definitely platoon a few thousands at a time, and keep that large NK troop reserve as a trump card that will dissuade NATO from escalating conventionally, forcing them to stay out of the conflict.

As well just the threat of massive NK boots on the western steppes alone means that Russia itself can throw in a larger proportion of its own troops into the fray, knowing that they have NKorean manpower as an extra reserve.

Overall this is a big development, NATO must be a bit in a tizzy over this.
 

Wutang

Hummingbird
Gold Member
Anyway, at the end of the day, the Chinese and the Taiwanese are the same people, of the same spirit, and they wish to be reunited. The same is true for the Koreans. In both cases, if it weren't for American meddling, there is a good chance they would be reunited already (In Korea's case willingly, in Taiwan's case maybe less so, though the people in both countries want to be reunited, under whatever government).

Maybe it's true for Koreans but it's not the case for Taiwanese. In the past about 20 years there's been a big movement in Taiwan to create a separate Taiwanese identity that is distinct from the Chinese identity. I feel like it's as silly as saying South Koreans and North Koreans are different ethnicities but nevertheless that is the trend right now in Taiwan. A lot of the old Republic of China imagery has been getting erased for the past few decades. You no longer see Sun Yet Sen or Chiang Kai-shek on the paper currency and a lot of these old Chiang Kai-shek statues you would see in public have gotten thrown out. All of this is analogous to a lot of the movements you've seen in the US to remove Confederate flags, to deface and remove that statues of figures that are part of the American founding mythos. In both cases, these symbols are being destroyed in order to erase an old identity and replace it with a new one. With the US, the goal is to cancel the "oppressive dead white men" while in Taiwan the goal is to destroy the Taiwanese connection with China. A sentiment you'll hear among Taiwanese now is that the KMT retreat in 1949 from mainland to China was a foreign invasion by outsiders.

Taiwanese in general are pretty hostile towards mainland Chinese. I've heard plenty of comments made by various Taiwanese about mainland Chinese I know that would be pretty much result in instant cancelation if it the same comments were made from a white person about a person of non-white ethnicity. The only bloc in Taiwan that even hints towards reunification are some of the old school KMT people along with their descendants but that is a minority block has been continually losing power since the 2000s.

The younger generation in particular tends to be more gung-ho about inching Taiwan towards independence. They were the driving force behind the Sunflower Movement. The specific goal of that particular movement was to halt a trade pact that have led to increased economics ties between China and Taiwan with the overarching goal being to stop the intertwining of China and Taiwan which the protesters feared would led to the gradual takeover of Taiwan by china - which by the way I think is the PRC's preferred strategy for unification rather than a full scale invasion.

 

Pointy Elbows

Kingfisher
Orthodox
The US is disappointed by the volume of pro-Russian sympathizers (and actual cooperators) in Ukraine. I think we will find a similar problem in Taiwan. I'd bet that old-line KMT families (who never got along with Sunflower Movements/DPP types) will be highly conflicted and prime for PRC sympathy. The few that I've known are Chinese, period. They had a big disagreement with their PRC cousins, but they were never "Taiwanese." KMTs may be 3 generations removed now, so the sympathies may fade, but PRC/Taiwan relations are loaded with subterfuge and inner conflict.

The culture gap is bad enough in Ukraine/Russia. Most Americans just don't get Asian culture and political dynamics (myself included).
 

911

Peacock
Catholic
Gold Member
Maybe it's true for Koreans but it's not the case for Taiwanese. In the past about 20 years there's been a big movement in Taiwan to create a separate Taiwanese identity that is distinct from the Chinese identity. I feel like it's as silly as saying South Koreans and North Koreans are different ethnicities but nevertheless that is the trend right now in Taiwan. A lot of the old Republic of China imagery has been getting erased for the past few decades. You no longer see Sun Yet Sen or Chiang Kai-shek on the paper currency and a lot of these old Chiang Kai-shek statues you would see in public have gotten thrown out. All of this is analogous to a lot of the movements you've seen in the US to remove Confederate flags, to deface and remove that statues of figures that are part of the American founding mythos. In both cases, these symbols are being destroyed in order to erase an old identity and replace it with a new one. With the US, the goal is to cancel the "oppressive dead white men" while in Taiwan the goal is to destroy the Taiwanese connection with China. A sentiment you'll hear among Taiwanese now is that the KMT retreat in 1949 from mainland to China was a foreign invasion by outsiders.

Taiwanese in general are pretty hostile towards mainland Chinese. I've heard plenty of comments made by various Taiwanese about mainland Chinese I know that would be pretty much result in instant cancelation if it the same comments were made from a white person about a person of non-white ethnicity. The only bloc in Taiwan that even hints towards reunification are some of the old school KMT people along with their descendants but that is a minority block has been continually losing power since the 2000s.

The younger generation in particular tends to be more gung-ho about inching Taiwan towards independence. They were the driving force behind the Sunflower Movement. The specific goal of that particular movement was to halt a trade pact that have led to increased economics ties between China and Taiwan with the overarching goal being to stop the intertwining of China and Taiwan which the protesters feared would led to the gradual takeover of Taiwan by china - which by the way I think is the PRC's preferred strategy for unification rather than a full scale invasion.


The parallels with the Ukraine situation are incredibly striking, Sunflower and Maidan are classic textbook alphabet agency color revolutions.

The Taiwanese are being led down the primrose path, they will get wrecked, no doubt about it. The difference might be that they will surrender much quicker than the Ukrainians, given the smaller size of the island, and the likelihood of China going all in. with the kitchen sink. Main difference is that a lot of the losses will be in the naval war between the Chinese and US navies, there will be many US ships sunk.

We will probably get around 5+ million Taiwanese refugees in the US, Canada, Australia and UK.
 

Samseau

Eagle
Orthodox
Gold Member
The Taiwanese are being led down the primrose path, they will get wrecked, no doubt about it.

I have plenty of doubt about that. You should too. The US Navy is the only functional part of our military left, and there is good reason to believe it is still extremely capable, otherwise the Chinese would have attacked already. My analysis says the USA has 70% of victory versus Chinese navy, but of course what might happen is anyone's guess. Still, the odds are too uncomfortable for the Chinese, which tells you a lot.
 

911

Peacock
Catholic
Gold Member
China hasn't invaded Taiwan because they were on course to take it over, 2049 being the target date. They make long term plans, and figure by that time Taiwan will have been fully integrated economically and culturally into a China with a GDP much bigger than the two #2s, the US and India.

Now that path has been broken, largely because the US is trying to disrupt China's rise, in a classical Thucydides pattern, so China has to sacrifice growth and pay the price of moving to a bipolar world order and decoupling with the West in order to assume its primary military/security goals of clearing its front porch, which is an existential goal for them.

Militarily speaking, the US Navy will be severely constricted by the fact that its aircraft carriers and large vessels will be sitting ducks, they will get lacquered:

US naval power apologists may argue that the array of defenses on these ships is much more capable than in World War II. But it simply does not matter. It won’t be enough. Regardless of how one attempts to crunch the numbers, a putative engagement between a carrier strike group and the PLA Navy in the South China Sea would entail simultaneous massed attacks of precision-guided anti-ship missiles zooming in from all points of the compass.

It doesn’t require more than middle-school math to realize the inevitable result: the strike group’s defenses would be utterly overwhelmed. In all likelihood, every single ship would be sunk in a matter of minutes. It would be a catastrophic defeat – one which would shock the entire world and forever alter the course of military history.

The plain truth of the matter, in my estimation, is that, faced with the wide array of 21st century anti-ship missiles possessed today by Russia, China, Iran, and likely even North Korea, conventional surface fleets are effectively obsolete, and this will be proven beyond dispute in the first few hours of the next great power war.


What the US Navy will be able to do is to sink Chinese ships via submarines and constrict Chinese trading routes (Malacca), but other than Japan (and even then), it will be hard for the US to disrupt the Asia-Pacific trade and economy without antagonizing other countries in the region, like S. Korea, Indonesia etc.

As well, an aggressive war with China would have huge short and midterm consequences for the US, with China disrupting American trade either directly by hitting ships and infrastructure in the west coast, or by cutting off key strategic exports (rare earth, chips from Taiwan etc).
 
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Samseau

Eagle
Orthodox
Gold Member
China hasn't invaded Taiwan because they were on course to take it over, 2049 being the target date. They make long term plans, and figure by that time Taiwan will have been fully integrated economically and culturally into a China with a GDP much bigger than the two #2s, the US and India.

Now that path has been broken, largely because the US is trying to disrupt China's rise, in a classical Thucydides pattern, so China has to sacrifice growth and pay the price of moving to a bipolar world order and decoupling with the West in order to assume its primary military/security goals of clearing its front porch, which is an existential goal for them.

Militarily speaking, the US Navy will be severely constricted by the fact that its aircraft carriers and large vessels will be sitting ducks, they will get lacquered:




What the US Navy will be able to do is to sink Chinese ships via submarines and constrict Chinese trading routes (Malacca), but other than Japan (and even then), it will be hard for the US to disrupt the Asia-Pacific trade and economy without antagonizing other countries in the region, like S. Korea, Indonesia etc.

As well, an aggressive war with China would have huge short and midterm consequences for the US, with China disrupting American trade either directly by hitting ships and infrastructure in the west coast, or by cutting off key strategic exports (rare earth, chips from Taiwan etc).

Yeah only subs matter, and US subs are the most experienced and well developed in the world. Once US subs control the sea, then the US can move in the aircraft carriers and battle cruisers for long-range bombardment of any coastal area they wish. As far as I know, artillery on ships out-ranges any artillery on land, because ships can fire larger cannons without risk of damaging the cannon (since the recoil is ultimately absorbed into the water). And for air battles, that could be dicey for the US. That one I am not sure of. But if US subs control the seas, I think the aircraft carriers would win out.

As for the trade war stuff, China loses huge because they will run out of food in 5-10 years. India runs out in 2-3 years, far more at risk than China. India is forced to ally with USA or face starvation in such a scenario.

If China had the option to invade, they would have done so already. Their long-term thinking is irrelevant in the face of Chewish subversion through Taiwan.
 

Helmsman

Robin
Protestant
Yeah only subs matter, and US subs are the most experienced and well developed in the world. Once US subs control the sea, then the US can move in the aircraft carriers and battle cruisers for long-range bombardment of any coastal area they wish. As far as I know, artillery on ships out-ranges any artillery on land, because ships can fire larger cannons without risk of damaging the cannon (since the recoil is ultimately absorbed into the water). And for air battles, that could be dicey for the US. That one I am not sure of. But if US subs control the seas, I think the aircraft carriers would win out.

As for the trade war stuff, China loses huge because they will run out of food in 5-10 years. India runs out in 2-3 years, far more at risk than China. India is forced to ally with USA or face starvation in such a scenario.

If China had the option to invade, they would have done so already. Their long-term thinking is irrelevant in the face of Chewish subversion through Taiwan.
We have the ability to strangle Chinese trade at a number of chokepoints throughout the Indonesian archipelago. However, as far as power projection with carriers or naval gunfire that is a no-go. Until we can provide sufficient security for carriers from area denial weapons they will be forced to remain east of Wake Island. The capabilities to do so do not exist in the U.S. inventory. The U.S. has effectively no naval gunfire capability and has not since the last Iowa was decommissioned. The largest gun afloat in the U.S. fleet is 5" ranging 23km with standard ammo. The status quo could be changed to place us in a better position vis a vis China, but that would require a total transformation of the military-industrial complex, and its patrons in government.

Just because it seems logical to us, doesn't mean they won't do it. The U.S. embargoed war material (metal, oil, etc...) to Japan in 1941 in response to war crimes in China with the intent of crippling the Japanese war machine. A few months later the Japanese attacked Pearl Harbor and ran wild through the western Pacific securing new sources of oil and raw material. The enemy gets a vote.
 

911

Peacock
Catholic
Gold Member
^Naval artillery is obsolete, has been for many, many decades now, that's why the USS NJ and Iowa were retired a long time ago. And no carriers could get within, at the very least, 1,500km-2,000km of Chinese land, because China has thousands of mid-range missiles, including hypersonic missiles. The article I've linked above goes over this in detail.

Use of subs near Chinese lands will also be very limited, because the land shelf extends all the way to the First Island Chain, the ocean depth is pretty shallow within that wide region. Beyond the First Island Chain though, US nuclear subs can sink any big Chinese ship.

Marianatrenchmap.png


China could get nearly all of its food from land sources, including Russia, Novorossyia and the Stans, as well as SE Asia.
 

Max Roscoe

Ostrich
Orthodox Inquirer
Maybe it's true for Koreans but it's not the case for Taiwanese. In the past about 20 years there's been a big movement in Taiwan to create a separate Taiwanese identity that is distinct from the Chinese identity.

Taiwanese in general are pretty hostile towards mainland Chinese. I've heard plenty of comments made by various Taiwanese about mainland Chinese I know that would be pretty much result in instant cancelation if it the same comments were made from a white person about a person of non-white ethnicity.

The younger generation in particular tends to be more gung-ho about inching Taiwan towards independence.
That may be true for the younger generations, but over 2/3 of those polled opposed Nancy Pelosi's visit there. One would think a strong independence movement would be strongly supporting American intervention, but no. All it does is screw up Chinese / Taiwanese relations.

I only have one close Taiwanese friend. He doesn't have strong hatred of China, nor is he in favor of independence. His position is a bit difficult for me to understand, much less explain but it's probably most easily summarized as liking the status quo, or perhaps something like Hong Kong has. But he is in his 50s and perhaps the younger generation does see things differently.

In fact, my experience is the opposite. The Taiwanese are fairly neutral or complacent, while it is the Chinese I have met who are adament about Taiwan belonging to China and scoff at any other interpretation other than China already owns Taiwan.

In my travels there I was surprised by how insular Taiwan is, and how unreceptive they were to English. There is definitely no "white God" complex the way there is in some Asian countries (which is a good thing in my book). So I don't think the Taiwanese are very pro-American (see: Pelosi poll), though they do like some of our media and fashion. But they are far more similar to the Chinese, of course, since they are Chinese that just moved a few km east a few decades ago.

I do agree the Chinese plan is gradual takeover, not military invasion, and it will likely succeed.

As for the military scenario that @911 describes, it does seem America will push hard for that. China stretches back for millennia, and they are very measured and slow in their moves, so they will resist this as much as possible, though America seems intent on causing a conflict. Of course, Sun Tsu was Chinese, and one of his lessons is never let your enemy force your hand: You should always act at the time and place that YOU choose. There is a reaction coming to the Pelosi visit, and it will be far more harmful to us than the military scenarios people have been pondering over the last week.

All I can say is that it would be SO American to take all the goodwill, economic largess from the petrodollar, and paper tiger image of military superiority, and flush it all down the toilet for something as insignificant as the political status of Taiwan. America would indeed, never be the same after an embarrasing loss at sea.

But much like we lit 2 trillion dollars and a million lives on fire for absolutely nothing in the Iraq/Afghan wars, we will again risk the well being, safety, and happiness of our people tilting at the windmill of Taiwan. I hope I'm not still living here when that happens.
 
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