Signs of escalation into a World War

Armstrong Economics has Socrates hinting early Spring as a panic cycle. This would coincide with the ever increasing desperate measures to prop up Ukraine and the Russians getting more pissed off. I keep reading in MSM articles how these tanks and other supplies will be the thing that will win the war. How these idiots can look themselves in the mirror and not suffocate from their moronic ideas is beyond me.

Zelensky's crimes will be known to Ukrainians that could lead to a coup but we all know how that would be spun in the Western media.

I guess in the end it is fate with how this is unfolding and there is simply no stopping it. My plan is to stay healthy and alert to these changes because I cant run away from it.
 

Blade Runner

Crow
Orthodox
Could the market sell off be like a covid thing? The market was already trying to sell off and then an event (huge attack/war story) just made it that much easier for others to join the trade/party?
 

DanielH

Hummingbird
Moderator
Orthodox
My question is, at this point, if Russia did decide to destroy NATO assets in Germany that have already been dedicated to attack Russia, such as a training facility (training Ukrainians) or wherever these tanks are stored, how could Germany or the US say anything besides, "fair enough"? We all know they would feign outrage and escalate the conflict even more, probably sending more tanks and even aircraft, if not triggering Article 5. It's ridiculous but that's where it's at.

Also I'm just going to point out the humiliation of Germany having women being their equivalent of Secretary of Defense and this foreign minister lady casually talking about the escalation of manmade horrors beyond our comprehension.
 

Pointy Elbows

Pelican
Orthodox
The doomsday clock has been moved to the shortest time ever: 90 seconds.


Not that it defines anything, but the commentariat that follow this stuff daily is alarmed.
 

Going strong

Hummingbird
Orthodox
Gold Member
The war will last longer than Syria. 100k a year dead is not gonna change anything, they can easily go another 5 years.

Not sure what the tipping point will be, 500k-1million. What we do know is that we are not even close to the half way mark.

That's the problem, everyone thinks the same thing, notably (and reportedly) in the Pentagon, and certainly in all MSM and Western European governments.

Everybody is persuaded that the war will drag on forever and that V. Putin will never use a hypersonic missile or a Poseidon torpedo or some other unconventional weapon to put an end to it. And a victorious end at that, one would think.

So, as it stands, what's left of deterrence?

How come the West are so sure of them, so arrogant, so persuaded that Putin will not strike? They give HIMARS, Caesars, tanks, F16s soon, to crazy Zelensky, and they are serene, absolutely certain that Putin won't strike back.

I'm so surprised that I actually started reading the Nuclear Weapons don't Exist thread here on the forum. Maybe that's the reason of all this, Nukes don't exist? That or the computers for nuclear strikes have been rendered useless?

Because if nukes exist, why do Western countries are provoking Russia by all possible outrageous means, inundating Ukraine and Estonia with weapons, sending their special forces to kill Russians in the Donbass, openly trying to destroy Russia by all possible ways? How can they be so sure that Putin won't say Enough is enough and give, for example, a strike order to the Admiral Gorshkov fregate?

Also, State TV in Russia and many top-level politicians, are every other day clamouring for an unconventional strike to put an end to the war, but Western governments are just laughing and sending more tanks. Why aren't they afraid?
 

Pointy Elbows

Pelican
Orthodox
About 12 months ago we had a similar "Putin has no red-lines" discussion. I was wrong then. I'm not betting against him this time. This man is well and truly disgusted by the West. The only thing holding him back now is the "law of unintended consequences.". He's a smart man and he knows that even he can't wargame every single possibility. He has to think this thing through and only act when it is clearly at his advantage, with as few wild cards as possible. Until then, he can let his enemy feed their resources into the next Donbass meat grinder.
 

Samseau

Peacock
Orthodox
Gold Member
That's the problem, everyone thinks the same thing, notably (and reportedly) in the Pentagon, and certainly in all MSM and Western European governments.

Everybody is persuaded that the war will drag on forever and that V. Putin will never use a hypersonic missile or a Poseidon torpedo or some other unconventional weapon to put an end to it. And a victorious end at that, one would think.

So, as it stands, what's left of deterrence?

How come the West are so sure of them, so arrogant, so persuaded that Putin will not strike? They give HIMARS, Caesars, tanks, F16s soon, to crazy Zelensky, and they are serene, absolutely certain that Putin won't strike back.

I'm so surprised that I actually started reading the Nuclear Weapons don't Exist thread here on the forum. Maybe that's the reason of all this, Nukes don't exist? That or the computers for nuclear strikes have been rendered useless?

Because if nukes exist, why do Western countries are provoking Russia by all possible outrageous means, inundating Ukraine and Estonia with weapons, sending their special forces to kill Russians in the Donbass, openly trying to destroy Russia by all possible ways? How can they be so sure that Putin won't say Enough is enough and give, for example, a strike order to the Admiral Gorshkov fregate?

Also, State TV in Russia and many top-level politicians, are every other day clamouring for an unconventional strike to put an end to the war, but Western governments are just laughing and sending more tanks. Why aren't they afraid?

Because Russia will also be turned into a radioactive wasteland if he strikes first. Putin knows that his enemies are not simply "America," but chews scattered throughout the world. Is Putin going to nuke every country where these chews reside, which will prompt retaliation from each country hit? The only way to avoid a crushing retaliation would be to annihilate Europe, Israel, USA, Australia, and a bunch of Islands throughout the world.

To save Russia he needs to kill off half the world? While I don't think Putin is incapable of doing whatever it takes to win, I'm sure this is the last thing he wants to do.

As long as tanks stay out of Russia (minus the contested territories) I don't see Putin launching nukes anytime soon. If an exceptionally large army is sent into Ukraine, however, Barbarossa style, I could definitely see a nuke dropped on that army though.
 

charliec12

 
Banned
Orthodox
Suspension - This has been discussed elsewhere and it's not good for us to speculate without presenting evidence
Because Russia will also be turned into a radioactive wasteland if he strikes first. Putin knows that his enemies are not simply "America," but chews scattered throughout the world. Is Putin going to nuke every country where these chews reside, which will prompt retaliation from each country hit? The only way to avoid a crushing retaliation would be to annihilate Europe, Israel, USA, Australia, and a bunch of Islands throughout the world.

To save Russia he needs to kill off half the world? While I don't think Putin is incapable of doing whatever it takes to win, I'm sure this is the last thing he wants to do.

As long as tanks stay out of Russia (minus the contested territories) I don't see Putin launching nukes anytime soon. If an exceptionally large army is sent into Ukraine, however, Barbarossa style, I could definitely see a nuke dropped on that army though.

Are we convinced that Putin isn't a zionist, or even a jew?

Not trying to be controversial, and not saying this isn't a real war going on, but all evidence of world leaders in the last 100 odd years would suggest you don't get into a position of power like he has without being seen as an 'ally' by zog. Maybe he's just at odds with US zog, I don't know
 

Ember

Hummingbird
Other Christian
Gold Member
Are we convinced that Putin isn't a zionist, or even a jew?

Not trying to be controversial, and not saying this isn't a real war going on, but all evidence of world leaders in the last 100 odd years would suggest you don't get into a position of power like he has without being seen as an 'ally' by zog. Maybe he's just at odds with US zog, I don't know
This has been thrashed out in the Putin thread already. Take it there if you really want to resurrect the argument, rather than derail this thread.
 

Stirfry

Robin
Atheist
About 12 months ago we had a similar "Putin has no red-lines" discussion. I was wrong then. I'm not betting against him this time. This man is well and truly disgusted by the West. The only thing holding him back now is the "law of unintended consequences.". He's a smart man and he knows that even he can't wargame every single possibility. He has to think this thing through and only act when it is clearly at his advantage, with as few wild cards as possible. Until then, he can let his enemy feed their resources into the next Donbass meat grinder.

There will never be an advantage. At no time will Putin use nuclear weapons.

The West, and indeed all countries, can’t give in to nuclear blackmail. Any president/elected official/appointed cabinet minister worthy of calling themselves the leader of a nation cannot change foreign policy objectives based on some tin pot dictator threatening the world with nukes. If we show fear and back off now, then any unstable nation that manages to acquire one (and I think North Korea and Iran are close, to give you the idea of what kind of people could have their finger on the button) would use the Putin example as a precedent to make outrageous demands. It’s the same principle about paying ransoms to radical groups who kidnap civilians- if you do so, expect more kidnappings and more payouts.

2) Putin would lose- if he uses nuclear weapons NATO will get involved and Russia would be overwhelmed. I don’t buy everything the press says about how badly Russians are doing, their poor equipment, etc., but still, they can’t fight off all of Europe and the US. Not to mention, they hardly have any allies right now and would lose the few they have if they started a nuclear conflict. I’m not saying that we would get off scott free- there would be death and destruction all around, but it would mean the end of Russia as we know it now. Does Putin hate the west and Ukrainians so much that he would prefer suicide over losing Crimea or the Donbas?

3) Unlike the western press, I don’t think Putin is stupid, insane or unhinged. He’s been successful, at least professionally and certainly politically, all his life. He is well aware that it’s game over if he unleashes one of his “wonder weapons.” Which is why the threats coming from the Kremlin about hypersonic missiles and attacking Germany and super torpedos and all that crap are getting more and more shrill and desperate. Because we’re not falling for it.
 

Samseau

Peacock
Orthodox
Gold Member
2) Putin would lose- if he uses nuclear weapons NATO will get involved and Russia would be overwhelmed. I don’t buy everything the press says about how badly Russians are doing, their poor equipment, etc., but still, they can’t fight off all of Europe and the US. Not to mention, they hardly have any allies right now and would lose the few they have if they started a nuclear conflict. I’m not saying that we would get off scott free- there would be death and destruction all around, but it would mean the end of Russia as we know it now. Does Putin hate the west and Ukrainians so much that he would prefer suicide over losing Crimea or the Donbas?

If Putin uses a nuke in Ukraine, why would NATO send in troops to Ukraine? So they can get nuked too? In reality, it's obvious who the bullies are here, and bullies always keep pushing until they get hit very hard back.
 
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