Silver Squeeze?

NoMoreTO

Hummingbird
Catholic
I've begun watching Heresy Financial Account, he is a straight talking guy who lays out his points well on multiple topics.

In this video he discusses the massive short the Bank Of America has on silver. The short is the size of an entire years worth of silver production. A sharp rise in the price of silver could cause massive financial issues for the bank.

 

C-Note

Hummingbird
Other Christian
Gold Member
I've begun watching Heresy Financial Account, he is a straight talking guy who lays out his points well on multiple topics.

In this video he discusses the massive short the Bank Of America has on silver. The short is the size of an entire years worth of silver production. A sharp rise in the price of silver could cause massive financial issues for the bank.


As you've probably noticed, the market is taking a beating today, but precious metals mining stocks have only slightly declined (most of them). That could mean, I guess, that those mining stocks are near their bottoms and can't really go any lower. Maybe? If that's the case, and if his prediction is correct that silver might explode sometime within the next year, it just needs something to trigger it, and then there will be a run on silver bullion as well as silver mining stocks, which I imagine will also spillover into gold and platinum stocks to some extent. I'm sure we've had situations like this in the past in which it seemed like a run on a certain commodity or security was imminent, and sometimes it happened and sometimes it didn't. I'm really curious to see what happens.
 

Uzisuicide

Kingfisher
Protestant
Gold Member
Spot price for silver being around $25 makes no sense. Look at what people are paying for a 10 oz bar on ebay. Roughly $300, which would put about a $5 premium per ounce on a 10 oz bar! I can see a $5 premium on an American Eagle but we're talking about a $50 premium for a 10 oz APMEX bar. Something isn't right here.
 

NoMoreTO

Hummingbird
Catholic
Spot price for silver being around $25 makes no sense. Look at what people are paying for a 10 oz bar on ebay. Roughly $300, which would put about a $5 premium per ounce on a 10 oz bar! I can see a $5 premium on an American Eagle but we're talking about a $50 premium for a 10 oz APMEX bar. Something isn't right here.

Supply is thin. When there is a drop in price, the premiums tend to drive up and mitigate the loss on physical holdings. If the price rips up, the premiums will go up then too! Supply is thin.

The paper market still drives the physical, for now. If BofA get's caught in their massive short silver position they will be going back for a bail out.
 

C-Note

Hummingbird
Other Christian
Gold Member
Supply is thin. When there is a drop in price, the premiums tend to drive up and mitigate the loss on physical holdings. If the price rips up, the premiums will go up then too! Supply is thin.

The paper market still drives the physical, for now. If BofA get's caught in their massive short silver position they will be going back for a bail out.
It seems to me that what is needed to really cause a run on silver would be for an industry that uses silver to come out and say that they're having a hard time getting it. For example, if Elon Musk were to tweet, "Sure, lithium, graphite, and nickel are important for our company, but what we're really short of right now is silver. Why can't I get any?"

I haven't seen anything like that in the financial media. Although there is starting to be a shortage of silver bullion, the silver supply chain to heavy industry appears to be functioning normally. I assume it's because the industrial silver suppliers have first pick of the silver dore produced at the source- the mines. Does B of A's short position only involve silver bullion?
 

Pointy Elbows

Kingfisher
Orthodox

For Precious Metal interested investor laymen, I highly recommend this website. Turd keeps daily track and provides occasional back-story historical info that explains the corruption surrounding the PM trade, especially on behalf of our friends at the investment banks.

Long story short - trade PMs with a great deal of skepticism. This is a SHTF investment, but it will continue to be heavily manipulated by big banks (and the regulators are willfully blind to their malfeasance). Some guys make money trading these products daily, but I don't have the time or expertise for it.

Someday, PMs will sky-rocket. When that happens, I believe the end will be near for our economic system. Until then, keep stacking. An ounce a month is just fine. Just do what you can. It can be fun to develop a friendship with a local PM shop. Some are really "Salt of the Earth" people (some are not, so shop around).

Side benefit of this website: some red-pilled investors (pain-induced for them all) and some decent forum commentary. Many of their commenters were as vaxx-sceptic as early as RVF guys (I heard about the VAERS system from them even before RVF).

Avoid (((discussions))) though, or you'll get the ban hammer. Many of them know what's up, but don't talk about it to avoid web-hosting bans.
 

Joachim-Gaius

Pigeon
Catholic
It seems to me that what is needed to really cause a run on silver would be for an industry that uses silver to come out and say that they're having a hard time getting it. For example, if Elon Musk were to tweet, "Sure, lithium, graphite, and nickel are important for our company, but what we're really short of right now is silver. Why can't I get any?"

I haven't seen anything like that in the financial media. Although there is starting to be a shortage of silver bullion, the silver supply chain to heavy industry appears to be functioning normally. I assume it's because the industrial silver suppliers have first pick of the silver dore produced at the source- the mines. Does B of A's short position only involve silver bullion?
Seems like manipulation, but it's difficult to prove. Those operating the monetary and fiscal system are under a lot of pressure to conceal any sign of disfunction and the precious metals market is a good market signal.
 

Pointy Elbows

Kingfisher
Orthodox
Seems like manipulation, but it's difficult to prove. Those operating the monetary and fiscal system are under a lot of pressure to conceal any sign of disfunction and the precious metals market is a good market signal.





The precious metal market is an excellent sign of disfunction in our fiscal system. These reports account for over USD 1B in fines.

Still, not one trader has done one single day in jail.

If I ran my business in such a shady fashion, the US Government would be sure to shut me down (by IRS, if no other method).

If/When this ever corrects, we will see a pretty big boomerang in PM prices.
 

C-Note

Hummingbird
Other Christian
Gold Member
Seems like manipulation, but it's difficult to prove. Those operating the monetary and fiscal system are under a lot of pressure to conceal any sign of disfunction and the precious metals market is a good market signal.
My apologies if anyone in this thread or in the Fed thread have already pointed this out, but after watching a few podcasts/interviews over the last few days of prominent precious metals investors, they all gave the following reason why they think right now is a good time to invest in gold and/or silver:

1. The Fed is in an impossible position. Because the US, Canada, and other countries have such humongous debts/budget deficits, the Fed cannot raise interest rates high enough to adequately halt inflation and/or preserve the value of paper currency, because raising the interest rates too high would cause governments to start defaulting on their debts.

2. So, over the next year or so, the Fed will incrementally raise rates, perhaps at a quarter percent at a time, and won't be able to go any further than maybe 3 or 3.5%, which is not enough to fix things.

3. The stock market will be lackluster or fairly steady during the initial rate hikes until investors realize that the interest increases aren't working. Then, there will be a broad sell-off over several weeks as investors flee the market, and the market will nosedive. The crash will initially include mining stocks, although they likely won't decline as much as other stocks, especially speculative stocks in other industries.

4. Looking for alternative investments to put their cash, investors will first start rushing to gold, and then there will be spill-over to silver and other metals. Gold will break $2000 oz and silver $30. Mining stock values will greatly increase.

I believe it was Michael Gentile who said something like, "If gold reaches $2000 an ounce within the next 18 months, in some sense I'll be happy because I'll make a lot of money off of it. However, I'll also be distressed because it means that the economy is in a severe crisis that signals perhaps years of dark times for a lot of people."
 

Pointy Elbows

Kingfisher
Orthodox
My apologies if anyone in this thread or in the Fed thread have already pointed this out, but after watching a few podcasts/interviews over the last few days of prominent precious metals investors, they all gave the following reason why they think right now is a good time to invest in gold and/or silver:

1. The Fed is in an impossible position. Because the US, Canada, and other countries have such humongous debts/budget deficits, the Fed cannot raise interest rates high enough to adequately halt inflation and/or preserve the value of paper currency, because raising the interest rates too high would cause governments to start defaulting on their debts.

2. So, over the next year or so, the Fed will incrementally raise rates, perhaps at a quarter percent at a time, and won't be able to go any further than maybe 3 or 3.5%, which is not enough to fix things.

3. The stock market will be lackluster or fairly steady during the initial rate hikes until investors realize that the interest increases aren't working. Then, there will be a broad sell-off over several weeks as investors flee the market, and the market will nosedive. The crash will initially include mining stocks, although they likely won't decline as much as other stocks, especially speculative stocks in other industries.

4. Looking for alternative investments to put their cash, investors will first start rushing to gold, and then there will be spill-over to silver and other metals. Gold will break $2000 oz and silver $30. Mining stock values will greatly increase.

I believe it was Michael Gentile who said something like, "If gold reaches $2000 an ounce within the next 18 months, in some sense I'll be happy because I'll make a lot of money off of it. However, I'll also be distressed because it means that the economy is in a severe crisis that signals perhaps years of dark times for a lot of people."
Along a similar line of thought: the silver short position is a little more acute. Accordingly, heavy silver buying could result in a delivery default. At that point, all hell theoretically breaks loose. Investors would stand for delivery, both silver and gold would continue a very steep rise, with the G:S price ratio tightening up to a more historically accepted level (say 15:1 or so). This implies that the price variation in silver is more erratic than gold. I've casually followed the market for years and silver swings more broadly than gold. They do usually swing in the same direction, and gold does lead somewhat, but the swing (and hence your ROI in event of a meltdown) should be more dramatic in silver. Of course, silver downturns are worse. Miner moves are even more extreme.

I've made no real money on precious metals or miners. It is a rigged, underperforming market. To me, it is a SHTF investment. If they swing up, and the market melts down, I will be able to liquidate at modest targets and pay down all remaining debt pretty quickly. In a way, I'm hedging against my bank, in the event they tank and call a note to cover cash shortage.
 

Going strong

Crow
Orthodox Inquirer
Gold Member
I've made no real money on precious metals or miners. It is a rigged, underperforming market. To me, it is a SHTF investment. If they swing up, and the market melts down, I will be able to liquidate at modest targets and pay down all remaining debt pretty quickly. In a way, I'm hedging against my bank, in the event they tank and call a note to cover cash shortage.

I think of Gold/Silver as "SHTF investment", like you, but I add Guns, too. In my mind, gold, silver and guns are comparable investments, not meant for a quick gain, but meant to possibly save your life and your family at some point.
 

NoMoreTO

Hummingbird
Catholic
Big jump in the price of silver today. More than one dollar higher than yesterday before retreating a bit. Needs to go up about two more dollars to match its previous one-year high.


Things are moving for precious metals and all things commodity.

In terms of a squeeze, we are more likely to see one occur in gold. LBMA has banned Russian miners which are about 5% of production sold at LBMA. Could be enough to squeeze gold which has a much more massive paper hypothecation, even then silver.

A run on physical delivery of gold would imply a run on physical delivery of silver to boot. So we could see a double squeeze.
 

NoMoreTO

Hummingbird
Catholic
Things move quickly so who knows where we are going. Lots going on. CPI numbers overnight.

Folks, it does not get any clearer than this. The big price rally in silver was driven by big buying of silver futures.

NOT physical metal.

This is not a bullish sign. Those who buy futures are playing with leverage. In the best of times, they will sell to take profits. And in volatile times, they may need to sell to cover margin calls. Even when the silver price is rising, they may have margin calls on other positions in their portfolio. Or they may just be more jittery.
ZeroHedge_Mar9

But here's the thing, the London Metals Exchange (LME) is where the price is currently locked. This exchange has been openly in backwardation (demonstrating short supply) in six base metals— including nickel—for the past few weeks, and now they are attempting to change the trading rules in order to forestall a complete collapse of their pricing scheme.

the LME will face an extinction-level event. While this will be catastrophic to anyone short and any party needing short-term delivery of the physical metal, this event—should it play out—also has the potential to FINALLY break the Bullion Bank fractional reserve and digital delivery pricing scheme in gold and silver, too.

Why?

Because as we may already be seeing, once the global investment community figures out that it's all a scam—that there are as many as 100 digital/pretend ounces for every physical ounce backing the pricing scheme—confidence will rapidly collapse. There will be a run on physical precious metal, and only those who hold it nearby will be determined to be the actual owner.

Those with ETFs, unallocated accounts, futures contracts, and the like will all be left holding the bag. Don't let that be you!
Craig_Hemke_SprottBlog
 
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NoMoreTO

Hummingbird
Catholic
I’m don’t know enough about this to know if he’s being realistic or not ... but I’m wary of info coming from a company that sells precious metals... and is essentially saying “ you’d better buy now, and buy big!”

Yes it's a fair point.

But there is lots of talk about how nickel was squeezed and how something similar could happen in other commodities markets, specifically silver which is known to have massive short positions. It's a common topic I've seen popping up among silver investors.

Video about nickel and silver etc etc.
 

ed pluribus unum

Ostrich
Protestant
Looking at making a jump into getting some silver just to see where it goes, as well as a little SHTF investment. I checked yesterday and spot price in Canada was around $31. I see Canadian banks (the link I followed sent me to TD) sell physical silver; a 1oz bar for $40.15 and a 1/2oz round for $20.90. I do like the idea of the 1/2oz amount, I'd rather have 20 of those than 10 X 1oz pieces. Their silver is 999 fine.
I also see dealers selling certified Royal Canadian Mint silver, which is 9999 fine, for just under $42 for the 1oz coin. For a slight premium, is there any significant advantage to having the more pure (i.e. 9999 vs 999) silver?
 

zoom

Kingfisher
Catholic
Gold Member
I also see dealers selling certified Royal Canadian Mint silver, which is 9999 fine, for just under $42 for the 1oz coin. For a slight premium, is there any significant advantage to having the more pure (i.e. 9999 vs 999) silver?

Not in my opinion.

Also with premiums being so high, it's a good idea to consider buying junk silver coins- pre 1965 US coins or pre 1968 Canadian coins.
 

Eusebius Erasmus

Ostrich
Orthodox
Looking at making a jump into getting some silver just to see where it goes, as well as a little SHTF investment. I checked yesterday and spot price in Canada was around $31. I see Canadian banks (the link I followed sent me to TD) sell physical silver; a 1oz bar for $40.15 and a 1/2oz round for $20.90. I do like the idea of the 1/2oz amount, I'd rather have 20 of those than 10 X 1oz pieces. Their silver is 999 fine.
I also see dealers selling certified Royal Canadian Mint silver, which is 9999 fine, for just under $42 for the 1oz coin. For a slight premium, is there any significant advantage to having the more pure (i.e. 9999 vs 999) silver?

I personally don’t buy from banks like TD. They might be tracking your precious metals purchases.

Instead, I’d go through a trustworthy bullion dealer and pay in cash.
 
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