Silver Squeeze?

NoMoreTO

NoMoreTO

Hummingbird
Catholic
ed pluribus unum said:
Looking at making a jump into getting some silver just to see where it goes, as well as a little SHTF investment. I checked yesterday and spot price in Canada was around $31. I see Canadian banks (the link I followed sent me to TD) sell physical silver; a 1oz bar for $40.15 and a 1/2oz round for $20.90. I do like the idea of the 1/2oz amount, I'd rather have 20 of those than 10 X 1oz pieces. Their silver is 999 fine.
I also see dealers selling certified Royal Canadian Mint silver, which is 9999 fine, for just under $42 for the 1oz coin. For a slight premium, is there any significant advantage to having the more pure (i.e. 9999 vs 999) silver?
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I like the 1 oz vs. the 1/2 oz rounds or a 1oz bar. It is pretty much the standard, so if you have a canadian maple leaf round it is very common and can be easily priced. Imagine the price is very high and you are trying to sell your 1oz bar or exchange it with someone you don't know very well. In this way, Rounds are more easily identifiable, so are very easy to authenticate.

For bars 10oz is very good. The larger you go, generally the lower the premium.

Agree that it is best to buy your silver from dealers, not just for tracing, but generally they offer a slightly better price than TD bank.
 
BeatUpTruck

BeatUpTruck

Robin
Other Christian
ed pluribus unum said:
Looking at making a jump into getting some silver just to see where it goes, as well as a little SHTF investment. I checked yesterday and spot price in Canada was around $31. I see Canadian banks (the link I followed sent me to TD) sell physical silver; a 1oz bar for $40.15 and a 1/2oz round for $20.90. I do like the idea of the 1/2oz amount, I'd rather have 20 of those than 10 X 1oz pieces. Their silver is 999 fine.
I also see dealers selling certified Royal Canadian Mint silver, which is 9999 fine, for just under $42 for the 1oz coin. For a slight premium, is there any significant advantage to having the more pure (i.e. 9999 vs 999) silver?
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You’d better look into it further because I’m not sure, but I believe that 9999 pure is sales tax free in Canada and less pure is taxable.
 
ed pluribus unum

ed pluribus unum

Ostrich
Protestant
BeatUpTruck said:
You’d better look into it further because I’m not sure, but I believe that 9999 pure is sales tax free in Canada and less pure is taxable.
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Good point - as long as it is 99.9% pure it is tax exempt (99.5% for gold and platinum). Upon further research it turns out the difference is almost academic; hence the price is pretty much the same for either.
 
C-Note

C-Note

Hummingbird
Other Christian
Gold Member
NoMoreTO said:
I jumped in on First Majestic with you with you. Price is low, but that stock is scary volatile.
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Based on my observations, of the three primary metals, copper, silver, and gold, silver seems to be the most volatile. In the recent surge in metal prices from January until about mid-April, silver lagged behind copper and gold.
 
NoMoreTO

NoMoreTO

Hummingbird
Catholic
Apparently people were suggesting a "Silver Raid" on May 15th, in this video a group of silver youtube accounts speak out against the raid.

On the topic of a SQUEEZE. Or more on the topic of a retail squeeze on the silver market, it simply isn't possible. This is a great video which shows clips from a host of different podcasters explaining why the retail investor just causes shipping delays, increased premiums in the short term.

One point which stood out to me is
- only 3% of silver is retail so it just pushes up the premiums.
- sellers make money when the premiums are high, and many youtubers sell their own product

 
C

COtrailrider

Woodpecker
Other Christian
There's a ton of enthusiasm in the silver community but a lot of it is unfounded - it's not going to really do much of anything. Except as pointed out in the above video, drastically increase premiums (but not move spot) and wipe out LCS'.

r/Wallstreetsilver for example always talks about the price going to the moon and breaking COMEX but let's be realistic...JP Morgan and institutional players will just continue the manipulation.

I invest in physical metals as a hedge against inflation. Over many years it'll retain more value than national currencies, especially in today's environment.
 
C-Note

C-Note

Hummingbird
Other Christian
Gold Member
NoMoreTO said:
Apparently people were suggesting a "Silver Raid" on May 15th, in this video a group of silver youtube accounts speak out against the raid.

On the topic of a SQUEEZE. Or more on the topic of a retail squeeze on the silver market, it simply isn't possible. This is a great video which shows clips from a host of different podcasters explaining why the retail investor just causes shipping delays, increased premiums in the short term.

One point which stood out to me is
- only 3% of silver is retail so it just pushes up the premiums.
- sellers make money when the premiums are high, and many youtubers sell their own product

Click to expand...

Well, silver is almost at a two-year low right now. But, I understand what they're saying. After I started investing in silver and other miners, and reading their announcements and reports, I've come to realize that most metals, including silver, are sold directly from the mines to industry. I don't know what percentage of silver production is routed into bullion, but the percentage may not be that high. The miners are often secretive about who they're selling their silver to, and frequently decline to name their contracted buyers in their annual and quarterly reports. I don't know if Wheaton and other silver streamers reveal what percentage of their silver goes into bullion.
 
NoMoreTO

NoMoreTO

Hummingbird
Catholic
C-Note said:
Well, silver is almost at a two-year low right now. But, I understand what they're saying. After I started investing in silver and other miners, and reading their announcements and reports, I've come to realize that most metals, including silver, are sold directly from the mines to industry. I don't know what percentage of silver production is routed into bullion, but the percentage may not be that high. The miners are often secretive about who they're selling their silver to, and frequently decline to name their contracted buyers in their annual and quarterly reports. I don't know if Wheaton and other silver streamers reveal what percentage of their silver goes into bullion.
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These guys were saying 3% goes to retail bars.

I think it's a common thing to get overhyped when you're first learning about silver. It is probably a good time to avg in if you're confident, but the "squeeze" isn't really the way to do it. Although I still think it almost worked last time :)

One guy in the video made the point that you're better to stack physical gold, just because of the premiums on silver. Granted you'd have to buy in bigger chunks of FIAT.
 
Z

zoom

Kingfisher
Catholic
Gold Member
Here's a short overview of First Majestic Silver, a silver mining stock. To be clear, I view this as a speculation not an investment. This company is not profitable at the moment.


Pros:

- CEO Keith Neumeyer. He's very experienced, well-respected, and he's a large shareholder of First Majestic. I like a CEO with skin in the game. He's one of us, a true believer of silver and it's long-term prospects. On occasion he will withhold selling silver if he believes the price is too low. He's also one of the only CEOs to speak out against silver manipulation.

- Retail operation. I like their retail operations. Instead of selling all their silver to the banks, they are selling some to retail customers. They are also considering the creation of their own mint. Currently their retail operations accounts for a small portion of their revenue.

- Goals. They want to become the largest silver mining company in the world.

- Potential. This company will do incredible during a long bull run. First Majestic was one of the best performing silver stocks during the retail 'silver squeeze'. The peak stock price during the silver squeeze was $24. So if silver gets back to around $30 then this stock will likely triple in price.

- Easy financing. It's easy for First Majestic to get financing. They don't need to dilute shareholders.


Cons:


- Expensive. From a a value perspective, this stock is more expensive than other mining companies.

- Jerrit Canyon (so far). The Jerrit Canyon mine is not close to being profitable. First Majestic's managers are turn-around artists. They buy old, unprofitable mines and they turn them around. Their most recent purchase, Jerrit Canyon seems to be coming along slowly. The all-in cost to mine an ounce of gold at Jerrit Canyon is around $2400 an ounce. They are currently working to lower this cost.

- Lawsuit. There's an ongoing lawsuit with the Mexican government that likely won't be resolved within a few years. The Mexican government is seeking more than 500 million dollars in alleged taxes that are owed.
 
C-Note

C-Note

Hummingbird
Other Christian
Gold Member
Hecla Mining (NYSE: HL) is acquiring Alexco (NYSE: AXU). Hecla is one of the biggest silver producers in North American and Alexco has a moderately-sized silver mining operation in the Yukon. Alexco's stock crashed recently because they announced they were shutting down production for the rest of the year to get their mine operations organized better. So, apparently Hecla is taking advantage of the discount to grab AXU while the timing is good.

Hecla isn't offering much of a premium on the deal, so for Alexco shareholders (like me) it's not making us any money, at least at the moment. Hecla is currently trading at $4 and it's high last year was $7. I don't really see a big play here for potential investors. However, if you, like me, are hoping that silver eventually reaches $30 oz sometime next year, then Hecla might be one of the companies you should check out.
 
C

COtrailrider

Woodpecker
Other Christian
zoom said:
I can't believe these prices. I plan to buy aggressively.
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I laugh when I check the spot price - it's truly comical at this point. I still believe that the plans the greenies have, and thus higher demand for silver, must eventually reflect more of reality at some point. Who knows when though.

And another factor is what does that future actually represent if we're talking dollar-denominated value if they continue inflating away the currency? "Hooray it's $50/ounce but a loaf of bread is $10" isn't real value, it's BS nominal value manipulated for the establishment's benefit.

I'm looking at picking up some more but it's frustrating at the same time. I know the 'it's on sale' argument but nevertheless it's tough.
 
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