Stock Market 2014

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aphelion

Ostrich
Gold Member
BIGINJAPAN said:
scotian said:
Have any of you (Big In Japan?) invested in Canadian oil companies? I"m thinking about buying some stock soon, apparently companies such as Suncor and CNRL are forecasted to jump quite a bit this year, both are going through major expansions at their oil sands sites right now and with recent events in Russia and Iraq, investors are flocking to Canadian oil. Here's an article that explains it in detail: http://business.financialpost.com/2...-to-take-money-off-the-table/?__lsa=d5df-fedc

Did a little research on the Canadian oil companies and I have to say im not overly impressed with their numbers. Most of them have had stagnant earnings since 2011. Costs are out of control by the looks of it. Stocks have had a good run though. The majors have a high beta correlation with the price of oil so my guess is that is the cause for the run up.

One of my friends who is big into oil and gas plays like BHI and DVN. Both have had big run ups as of late as well. But they have all been upgraded by analysts and have great earnings reports so far this year. Also they have a lot of open interest as well going into 2015. I think on a pull back I would look to get into these companies until the Canadian producers can get costs under control again

ZAR.TO, QXP.V and CAZ.TO have been very good to me this year.
 
Was curious if anyone has ever invested in the Iraqi stock market? I think it's called the WARKA. I've heard about it for years, some people were making some pretty good gains for a while. I've heard ever since this ISIS business their market is down 35% to 40% lately. Never really trusted how secure or how safe money is in there plus I hear it's a pain to put money in have to send over your passport with money and a bunch of other stuff.

I hear people talking about making good gains in the Turkish and Eastern European stock market. How do you invest? Do you have to get a special account setup or do you just buy funds that are a collection of stocks from their market
 

Steve9

Woodpecker
jamaicabound said:
Was curious if anyone has ever invested in the Iraqi stock market? I think it's called the WARKA. I've heard about it for years, some people were making some pretty good gains for a while. I've heard ever since this ISIS business their market is down 35% to 40% lately. Never really trusted how secure or how safe money is in there plus I hear it's a pain to put money in have to send over your passport with money and a bunch of other stuff.

I hear people talking about making good gains in the Turkish and Eastern European stock market. How do you invest? Do you have to get a special account setup or do you just buy funds that are a collection of stocks from their market


No special account needed for Turkey/EE.

There are Turkish & EE companies that are listed on the NY Stock exchange, eg. Turkcell (TKC)

If you do not want to research/buy individual companies then look at Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs) which hold a basket of stocks. You buy ETFs exactly the same way as you buy US stocks, via your online broker.

A couple of relevant ETFs listed on the NY Stock exchange (there are quite a few more than this) :

iShares Turkey Index Fund (TUR)
iShares Emerging Markets Eastern Europe (ESR)

For obvious reasons investing in these countries contains more risk than investing in developed countries.

As for Iraq, I expect it will be broken up into 3 parts for the Sunni, Kurdish, & Shiite. There is no way I would invest there, the way things are looking.

When I get around to it I will be researching investing opportunities in Myanmar, as this country holds great promise.

In the longer term (10 to 15 years) I expect North and South Korea to reunify which would open up some great opportunities.
 
Anyone shorting QQQ or similar here? I thought of buying puts on QQQ for expiry late fall but haven't bitten the bullet yet.

I closed a position for a decent gain to reduce risk on a long-term speculative stock in my speculation account.
 

cool

Woodpecker
Damn oil and gas stocks taking a hit...

Also, that airliner being shot down over Ukraine didn't help YNDX. I wonder how much this tangential bad news will push it down.
 

Nemencine

Woodpecker
Gold Member
Geo-economics/Stock plays: Isreali/Palestinian conflict

Does anybody have any ideas on stocks(long or short) to play the isreali/palestinian conflict?

Here is an example of what i mean, e.g. (1) china/new zealand botulism problem. (2) winter de-icing salts scarcity stocks play. (3) obamacare rollout stocks play. (4) russian/ukrainian conflict financial market plays.

You get the picture. I like my stock picks to have a catalyst propelling them.

I am looking for something like that for the isreali/palestinian gaza conflict. The current gaza conflict in this case being the stock's catalyst. It doesnt have to be just stocks, are there solid isreali ETFs that i can short? Anybody familiar with EIS and ISRA? dont know much about them.

i am trying to comb through this list to see if there is an isreali defence stocks that i can buy(with emphasis on missile defence companies) or isreali airline stocks that i can short.

Even better, does anybody know isreali companies with strong business exposure to the gaza?(from energy to construction to telecommunication to retail, etc), that is, isreali stocks that does a lot of business in gaza or through gaza?

I should have started this stock operation on isreal since last week, when the conflict just started; but, better late than never....

regards,

Nemencine
 

tarquin

Kingfisher
Gold Member
I have been thinking about a long EXEL play, and there has been a run up in anticipation of the release of this quarter's results. Their cancer drug has reached the Phase III study endpoint goal, but numbers haven't been released. I was under the original belief that they may be released on the 31st, but after reconsideration, I may be wrong. I anticipate you can still scrape a few points before the 31st in anticipation, however.

Long term, I think it happens to be a win. In the past, however, I've bounced from pharm stocks after approval. This has saved me profits (ex. DNDN and ARNA).
 

jbkunt2

Woodpecker
@JayJuanJee - Thanks ever so much for the info. I have read your post several times. Very useful.


Can anyone recommend a UK ISA platform for buying UK and international shares? I want to max out my ISA allowance of £15k and invest in some of the recommendations being given here!

I have been looking at iWeb, TD Direct Investing and Selftrade.


Any thoughts greatly appreciated. I am a complete novice but having just read Rich Dad, Poor Dad as well as this thread I want to start l'urrrniiing!
 

Steve9

Woodpecker
tarquin said:
I have been thinking about a long EXEL play, and there has been a run up in anticipation of the release of this quarter's results. Their cancer drug has reached the Phase III study endpoint goal, but numbers haven't been released. I was under the original belief that they may be released on the 31st, but after reconsideration, I may be wrong. I anticipate you can still scrape a few points before the 31st in anticipation, however.

Long term, I think it happens to be a win. In the past, however, I've bounced from pharm stocks after approval. This has saved me profits (ex. DNDN and ARNA).

Their partner, Roche, will not be releasing the full data set until later this year - no date announced yet.

Roche is filing for regulatory approval this year. It takes the FDA 10 months to review the data for a new drug submission. If it's approved by the FDA, EXEL will co-promote cobimetinib in the USA and receive an equal share of profits or losses on the drug's sales.

I took a small position in EXEL in March after their stock price dropped 50%.
 

tarquin

Kingfisher
Gold Member
Steve9 said:
tarquin said:
I have been thinking about a long EXEL play, and there has been a run up in anticipation of the release of this quarter's results. Their cancer drug has reached the Phase III study endpoint goal, but numbers haven't been released. I was under the original belief that they may be released on the 31st, but after reconsideration, I may be wrong. I anticipate you can still scrape a few points before the 31st in anticipation, however.

Long term, I think it happens to be a win. In the past, however, I've bounced from pharm stocks after approval. This has saved me profits (ex. DNDN and ARNA).

Their partner, Roche, will not be releasing the full data set until later this year - no date announced yet.

Roche is filing for regulatory approval this year. It takes the FDA 10 months to review the data for a new drug submission. If it's approved by the FDA, EXEL will co-promote cobimetinib in the USA and receive an equal share of profits or losses on the drug's sales.

I took a small position in EXEL in March after their stock price dropped 50%.

Thanks. I haven't done my DD yet, but it seems like it's been moving up a bit.
 

Steve9

Woodpecker
tarquin said:
Steve9 said:
tarquin said:
I have been thinking about a long EXEL play, and there has been a run up in anticipation of the release of this quarter's results. Their cancer drug has reached the Phase III study endpoint goal, but numbers haven't been released. I was under the original belief that they may be released on the 31st, but after reconsideration, I may be wrong. I anticipate you can still scrape a few points before the 31st in anticipation, however.

Long term, I think it happens to be a win. In the past, however, I've bounced from pharm stocks after approval. This has saved me profits (ex. DNDN and ARNA).

Their partner, Roche, will not be releasing the full data set until later this year - no date announced yet.

Roche is filing for regulatory approval this year. It takes the FDA 10 months to review the data for a new drug submission. If it's approved by the FDA, EXEL will co-promote cobimetinib in the USA and receive an equal share of profits or losses on the drug's sales.

I took a small position in EXEL in March after their stock price dropped 50%.

Thanks. I haven't done my DD yet, but it seems like it's been moving up a bit.

EXEL shares up 11% today on 3 times usual volume. News may be leaking or it could be a false rumor.

I found out Roche are planning to present the key data at the European Society for Medical Oncology conference in Madrid 26-30 September 2014.
 

DVY

Ostrich
Gold Member
Just picked up positions in a few different stock

Equity-bonds
1) MCD- equity-bond (3.3% dividend). Franchisees make up the bulk of cash-flow. Food is basically an inflation-hedge. MCD also owns a large Real estate portfolio- much of which is held at cost on balance sheet. I expect a conservative return of around 6-9% yearly. Management has outlined a 20 Billion return to shareholders via dividend/buybacks for the next 3 years. V boring stock, but I think it'll do fine. Horsemeat scandal is going to be a blip.

2) GE- Equity-bond (3.4% dividend). Bluest of the blue chip. Spinning of its financial unit soon. Focused on industrials. CEO has publically stated his near-term goal is to raise dividends to pre-recession levels. This would mean about a 5% dividend (at current price). Very under-rated and forgotten stock.

3) XOM- Equity-bond (2.68% dividend). Just want some exposure to oil/natural gas. Done very well historically over long periods of time (100+ years). Still one of the best oil companies out there. Just riding the jockey here. Small-stake, but some variation of commodities/inflation hedge.

Financials
1) TROW- T. Rowe Price Group. Mutual funds are an interesting beast. I inspire this to louis lowenstein's "The Investor's Dilemna- How Mutual Funds are Betraying Your Trust."
25B market cap. Approximatly 5B in short-term assets/investments. 1.6 Billion in free cash-flow/year. This money is basically all coming from mutual fund expenses (1-2% of Assets under management AUM). With stock-market shooting up, I expect more money to flow into the stock-market (401k into mutual funds). 600B AUM means they make money off your money, and operational costs are largely fixed. Any additional AUM inflow will be increase in management profits. Its a legal cash-skim machine (1.5-2%/yearly).

Stock under heavy consideration
AFLAC- insurance. Heavy yen exposure, but growing same currency about 10% yearly. 10 P/E. 1.8 P/B.
BEN- Frank Templeton mutual funds/asset management. Same vein as TROW.
 

monster

Pelican
DVY said:
Just picked up positions in a few different stock

Equity-bonds
1) MCD- equity-bond (3.3% dividend). Franchisees make up the bulk of cash-flow. Food is basically an inflation-hedge. MCD also owns a large Real estate portfolio- much of which is held at cost on balance sheet. I expect a conservative return of around 6-9% yearly. Management has outlined a 20 Billion return to shareholders via dividend/buybacks for the next 3 years. V boring stock, but I think it'll do fine. Horsemeat scandal is going to be a blip.

How is food a hedge against inflation? Food inflation seems to be at around 10% the past several years, outpacing most other goods. Cattle, dairy & chocolate products have in particular been hit hard. The producers of these goods have been experiencing a windfall but all the service businesses that use the materials are getting pinched.
 

DVY

Ostrich
Gold Member
People need to eat cheaply. Prices will roughly increase on par with food prices for low-cost providers. Hence MCD is basically food-inflation protected.
 

cool

Woodpecker
DVY said:
Just picked up positions in a few different stock

2) GE- Equity-bond (3.4% dividend). Bluest of the blue chip. Spinning of its financial unit soon. Focused on industrials. CEO has publically stated his near-term goal is to raise dividends to pre-recession levels. This would mean about a 5% dividend (at current price). Very under-rated and forgotten stock.

+1 on GE. Just got a heads-up on this stock the other day.
 

Sourcecode

Crow
Gold Member
Random Question.

GGB Gerdau SA brazilian steal company. largest in the america
currently been down for the years.

What do you think their future is...With the olympics coming up.. but brazil being full of odd corruption.
would you keep or sell?



Also.
Mens wearhouse and Michael Kors stock?
Keep or sell?
 
Hoping one of you more experienced guys can help me out on this one. It's probably pretty simple to answer so apologies in advance!

I've got a modest sum in an accumulation tracker fund in the UK. The dividend payment date was mid-July. It pays this dividend once a year.

I've had some paperwork through to say that I was due a small dividend payment on this date - but I've received nothing.

The fund I chose had an accumulation or income option (I chose the former).

I thought that any dividend payment would automatically buy me more shares of the fund I was in (as oppose to putting the dividend payment as cash into my bank account).

However - have I misunderstood how accumulation funds work? Does the dividend payment not buy you more shares automatically?

I've tried calling the bank a number of times but their lines are always 'busy'. Great support for investors. If anyone could clarify how these funds work it'd be really appreciated.
 
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