Stock Market 2014

[JayJuanGee]

I am getting a little anxious about the general bullish direction of the stock market, and since I mostly keep my stock investments in various index funds, I am hoping that the overall market keeps on the "going up" trend through the end of the calendar year, then I would cash out one of my series of investments that I began investing between October and November of last year and move that investment into some other area - better for me to occur next calendar year.

This overall bull market may NOT last that long. Any thoughts? I have heard a vast array of predictions, including that it is about to crash any minute and that we have another year of bullishness. I am more inclined to think that we are closer to crash mode than we are to continued bullish mode.. but maybe I am overly pessimistic?

Also, I am concerned about how the upcoming election may play into the overall stock market performance. Sometimes there seems to be upward propping of the market, and then once the election occurs, then there is a discontinuance of the propping. Do we think this propping up is occurring and in what direction and when?

By the way, my general index funds (the ones that I am considering moving into other investments) have gained about 11.5% since November of last year.... which seems pretty good... if they remain up or continue to go up through the final parts of the year... which of course is NO way guaranteed... which is the reason for my general questions in this thread.

Through this month, the overall stock market has been sliding downward.. but overall up for the year and a little bit of a rebound today.

I am beginning to wonder whether these overall smoke and mirrors of propping up the economy can be kept up by the present administration until the election, which is less than 6 weeks away.

Personally, I think that incumbent administrations will strive to take many measures to prop up the economy until the election - and then once the election takes place, they will relax their propping up.. especially because that propping up was NOT really sustainable.

Surely, I do NOT know enough about the nature and actions of propping up to speak authoritatively about my suspicions about such a dynamic, but I continue to wonder whether the attempts at propping up the economy are going to be able to last (successfully) for nearly 6 more weeks?

And, then I wonder what will happen after the elections? Assuming some kind of downfall, will such anticipated downfall be rapid or gradual?

 

[svenski7]

What's up with Ford Motor Co. (F)? Down 15% in one month and now nearing 52 week low.

-Lots of recalls (fewer and less serious than GM)
-Earnings adjusted to $6 billion -- down from $7 billion because of S. American market factors
-P/E down to 9.1
-2.9% dividend

Thoughts?

 

[jamaicabound]

For any of you guys who like investing youtube channels just stumbled upon this guys channel the other day. I like it, I think he gives pretty solid advice. He also has a newsletter he pushes but at least he provides valuable info on the show and everything isn't an upsell to his newsletter. I'm almost tempted to signup because he has some 5 stock turbo portfolio he raes about thats up big but just not willing to layout the money

https://www.youtube.com/user/bullorbearreport

 

[DVY]

Im seriously looking at investing into Softbank. Back of envelope sum of the parts evaluation show great discount to mkt price.

 

[Richiavelli]

NUE - All signs lead to steel market going up. Nuecor has had guidance for future earnings go up. I should have sold when I was up 10%, but it has come down a bit since.

 

[Peregrine]

I'm calling short term volatility to spike soon. Recommendations on a long vix ETF? I'm currently considering TVIX and UVXY.

 

[jamaicabound]

Just had someone recommend BNFT to me. Any thoughts on this one?

 

[Nemencine]

update: Continental Resources(ticker: CLR) short @ +600% gain on risk

Continental Resources (ticker: CLR) is now at $59.89, short was initiated at $79.25; liquidated some short positions today for +600% gain on risk, since my risk was $2.75 per share(stop loss was at $82.00). That is $2:75/$19.25 = 1:7 = +600% gain on risk.

This will be the final update on my Continental Resources(ticker: CLR) short positions, ... and i have a short social commentary to make about this:

While i am profiting from the pain of this company, Continental Resources, i will say this much: That this is a sad turn of events, because this is a fairly good company run by a good operator, that is been torn apart because a divorcing wife wants $8billion of unearned money. We at RVF writes a lot about the crazy divorce laws... it is another thing to actually see costly side-effects of it in real-time. To see a good company -- run by the king of fracking(Mr. Hamm) -- who started from next to nothing and build a fortune of roughly $17 billion with his own hands. A man who ended up owning more oil in the ground than anybody in the U.S.A all by himself... To see the company value get beaten down, to see employees getting terminated(i am sure the CEO is not the only person terminated) all because some harridan, his wife, sue ann hamm wants $8billion of money she never work a day for in her bloody life.

This is feminism destroying good value in real-time...

But then again, what can you do?...... as much as i sympathize... business is business... don't blame the players, blame the game... i didn't ask the man to get married in the first place....

I took 4 line of shorts on CLR on august, 29th, 2014 at an average PPS of $79.25 with a risk of $2.75 per share(my stop loss was at $82.00).

Cleared the first set of shorts on Sept 18th, 2014 at price target of $70 to a risk/reward of 1:3.36(roughly +200% gain on risk)...now clearing the 2nd set of shorts at price target $60.00 to a risk/reward of 1:7(+600% gain on risk).

For the last, remaining batch of shorts(i entered 4 lines of short position on aug, 29th, 2014), i now moved the stop loss from breakeven level($79.25) to a new level of $72.00; and put it in a set-and-forget mode-- Leaving it in the hands of market gods.

Previous chart when short line was initiated(before 2:1 stock split). On August 28th, 2014 i posted this chart below:
[img=800x600]http://oi58.tinypic.com/2112p95.jpg[/img]


Below is the Current, updated chart now: (after 2:1 stock split)... the pending $8 billion divorce is decimating this stock. Even the company's good fundamentals + good company news + 2:1 stock split wasn't good enough to stop the fall. Divorce is a bitch.

[img=800x600]http://oi61.tinypic.com/nfh9n8.jpg[/img]

Here is the real-time yahoo chart.

It is sad, really.

regards,

Nemencine

p.s quick update: just checked again right now after clicking send on this post... the stock is now at $58.89, before it was at $59.98...oh well...that is what you get for divorce in a feminist age.

 

[Days of Broken Arrows]

Couple questions for you investing gurus out there. First question how long do you have to buy a stock before you can get a divident? Do you have to own it for days or weeks in advance of the divident? I see some really high dividend ETF and stocks, wonder if I can buy in days before the dividend and sell right after?

Hi Jamaica,

First of all, not all stocks offer dividends. Secondly, for those that offer them, the size of the dividend and the periodicity vary. You can also have some stocks paying dividends for a few years, then not anymore.

Now, you have to realize that when a dividend is paid, the stock price will go down by the same amount. So let's say a company pays a yearly dividend of 3% and the previous close price is of 100, the stock price will open at 97.

Now, it won't EXACTLY open at this price, since there is pre-market trading, so it will either be slightly above or below, but on average, it would be 97, so you basically don't earn anything. High dividend yields stocks are hyped products, but many people don't understand this logic concerning the dividend payments. Therefore, your strategy of buying right before the dividend and selling right after won't work, even less since there are transaction fees that would have a pretty big impact.

ALso, I suck at picking stocks. I used to think I was good however it was just that I was doing the bulk of my investing when the market was recovering so even a monkey could have thrown darts and picked winners, I got some confidence and really it wasn't me, just the market. Lately it seems like if you did the opposite of what I do you would do very well. I'm sick of picking stocks wondering if someone can recommend some ETF or funds to just buy and sit on.

It is extremely difficult to "beat the market", even most of the professionals don't. You are correct to consider buying an ETF (an alternative could be futures). I like the iShares Nasdaq Biotechnology Index ETF, however it's a volatile one and therefore if you get unlucky, big damages can be done, so it will really depend on what is your risk profile.

Lastly,just started hearing about JNK and HYG and I guess what are referred to as junk bonds. In what types of markets or scenarios do these do well and are these a good investment right now?

To be honest, I'm not a specialist in bonds, but it really depends of the rating of your junk bonds. A BB one won't act the same as a BBB. Basically, the lower the rating, the more the price of your bond will fluctuate like a stock. Bonds are also more correlated to interest rates movements

To get a stock's dividend, you have to buy it before the "ex-dividend" date. Since most stocks pay out quarterly, that date comes up four times a year for them.

But AwFkBye is right -- stock prices drop after the dividend, but they drop specifically on the ex-dividend date and usually the day(s) after that as well. Here is what I do:

Go to dividend.com to research around when the ex-date of stocks comes up*. Mark it down. Keep in mind the stock price will usually rise in the weeks preceding the ex-date because there is a run up.

Then either buy on the ex-date** if there is a super-steep drop or sometime before the run-up. To get the dividend, you have to keep the stock after the ex-date until the "date of record" or the pay date, depending on the stock.

*Important note: Use dividend.com for research only -- to map out when ex-dates are and to get an idea of the yield. Don't use it as a definitive source because it's sometimes a day or two off. Be absolutely sure to double-check your ex-date on whatever trading Web site you use before you make the trade.

** I have been known to do this system backwards, so to speak. I will sometimes buy stocks on the ex-dividend date when they have a steep drop, then wait for the rise and sell -- and never bother with the actual dividend. I did this with Seadrill and Goldcorp. You can use the ex-dividend dates to your advantage this way, but be sure you're in a good stock -- check its ratings and trajectory on Marketwatch.com.

 

[Steve9]

Volatility is back . Nice little market pullback in the last few weeks. Small caps and energy stocks hit especially hard. Today I took profits in Coca-Cola and Bank of America to raise some capital.

Looking into starting a position in small caps like Ubiquiti Networks and Synaptics.

 

[Nemencine]

Profiting from Ebola: Event driven stock plays

I am curious, does anybody know of any pure play, decent stocks that one can use to profit from the Ebola pandemic? In my view, this Ebola presents some juicy opportunity to make serious money.

Yes, it is killing people and that is sad, but since i cannot do anything about that... i could as well make money from this... Don't blame the player, blame the game.....

I specifically need stocks of companies that mainly manufacture face-masks, goggles, hazmat suits, protective gloves, etc the kind of things people will rush out to buy in fear of Ebola... Or stocks of companies doing vaccine/treatment research in biotech area, focusing on filoviruses like Ebola or Marburgvirus... or What kind of pharmaceutical drugs will an Ebola patient receive as treatment option? ... what is the stock of companies that manufacture these drugs? Preferably pure play stocks.

I think this will be a really good opportunity to profit from the fear and panic that Ebola is causing... i can imagine the stocks of such companies completely flying through the roof-- thoroughly outpacing their true fundamental value.

Any ideas?

regards,

Nemencine

p.s. On the morality issue of using Ebola to make money in the stock market... I am not trying to be a bloody, heartless bastard but shite happens in life.... I have no control over these clusterfucks that life throws our way... but it is in my best interest to maximize my gain/benefit from them. Life is too short.

i didn't cause ebola... but what i can do?... I didn't cause the conflict in crimea(russia/ukraine)... that was Putin's doing.... but it makes no sense to not try and profit from it, by shorting the daylight out of the russian currency through the USD/RUB....... I didn't cause the conflict in Gaza strip... but since it is precipitated by the isreali hawks, i have no choice but to profit from it by shorting the shite out of isreali airline companies... I am certainly not Mr. Mario Draghi at the ECB, deciding that EU needs a negative interest rate... but, i will be damned if i didnt take the only course of action: profit handsomely by aggressively shorting the euro through the EUR/USD.... What other course of action is there?.... I sure as hell didn't ask mr. Hamm to get married to Sue Ann Hamm so that, Mr. Hamm is now facing a potential $8billion divorce... hence, i have no choice but to short the shite out of his company, Continental Resources... Don't blame the player, blame the game.... we simply play the hands we are dealt. Any good stock ideas on how to profit from Ebola?

 

[samsamsam]

I am curious, does anybody know of any pure play, decent stocks that one can use to profit from the Ebola pandemic? In my view, this Ebola presents some juicy opportunity to make serious money.

I am not endorsing this idea. But if you want to make money.

There is opportunity to scam idiots with ebola cures, etc. When the avian bird virus thing was a big fear people were buying shit that wouldn't even work.

Just googled "ebola cure purchase." Found this article by the governement warning against fake cures, haha.

http://thehill.com/regulation/healthcare/220262-feds-warn-dont-get-scammed-with-fake-ebola-cures

Last month, for instance, the FTC and FDA sent a warning to the National Solutions Foundation, a New Jersey-based online store that claimed its Nano Silver product could “kill every pathogen against which it has been tested, worldwide, without exception.”

“[T]here is a cure, treatment and prevention for Ebola virus,” the company falsely claimed on its website.

All the company got was a warning and I bet all it sold was sugar pills.

On a more serious note. I imagine you want to put money in things that work vs. speculated cures. Things like protective gear, etc. I just googled and found this.
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/2-ebola-stocks-to-sell-and-5-to-consider-buying-2014-10-13

Also clean up companies, etc. Disposal.

 

[Steve9]

Or stocks of companies doing vaccine/treatment research in biotech area, focusing on filoviruses like Ebola or Marburgvirus

Tekmira Pharmaceuticals (TKMR) and NewLink Genetics (NLNK) are both developing Ebola vaccinations.

 

[Nemencine]

Stocks/Commodities Profiting from Ebola Pandemic

@ samsamsamsam and @ steve9

Thanks for the Ebola-profiting recommendation. The darkside is strong in both of you(especially, that devilish avian/ebola scheme by samsamsam. heheh)

I will look into both of your recommendations in more detail later... Also, since the Ebola is very Africa-based, i can imagine this seriously affecting the Airlines too... especially the ones with strong business exposure to West Africa.

I will attempt to find the stocks of airline companies around the world, that does a lot of business traveling and shipping to West Africa... they will make good short candidates... Next earning seasons, their profit margin will take a serious hit. Same with travel agencies and cargo shipping agencies, with a lot of business exposure to West Africa.

Even with commodities: since cocoa is produced by farmers in West Africa... i can see the Ebola pandemic introducing volatility into the commodity price of cocoa(price in the futures market going up due to shortage). I will need to investigate this, to see how much it will affect confection makers(chocolate, nestle, candy, etc.).

My only regret is that i should have begun the Ebola-profiting operation immediately after Vicious created this thread on 2nd of July, 2014. I can't believe it took me this long to recognize the money making opportunity. (my lame excuse: i have been distracted by my other business ventures)

regards,

Nemencine

 

[Julio]

Hey Nemencine,

I was just reading an article about that today, here is the link but it's in spanish:

LINK

Names they mention:
Lakeland Industries
Tekmira Pharmaceuticals
Alpha Pro Tech
NewLink Genetics
BioCryst
Alnylam
Chimerix
Sarepta Therapeutics

Cheers

 

[Steve9]

Or stocks of companies doing vaccine/treatment research in biotech area, focusing on filoviruses like Ebola or Marburgvirus

Tekmira Pharmaceuticals (TKMR) and NewLink Genetics (NLNK) are both developing Ebola vaccinations.

NLNK stock price is up 46% since my post.

 

[kufu]

In the last 8 months, I have been putting some of my newly available investment funds into bitcoin (actually, i have been fairly strategic about it in attempting to invest on the dips and to plan the investment over an extended period of time), yet my timeline, when i started with bitcoin was 2 years or more, b/c I got into bitcoin after it had experienced more than a 50x increase in value (price) over the previous year.

Probably many guys here are going to be pretty hesitant about bitcoin, the future of bitcoin or how to allocate bitcoin investments within their overall investment holdings. Ultimately, there is a lot of misinformation and disinformation out there about bitcoin - even though there are some advantages to bitcoin (including being able to manage it fairly well yourself with varying amounts of investment, can put money in or out fairly quickly, and it has been going down in price over the last 7 months, so i believe it is likely to go up in the coming months especially if you measure probabilities 6-12 months from now).

Overall, I am of the belief that 12 months is a pretty short time line for any guy to plan how to invest $50k, and I am of the belief that you need to account for your cashflow over that time period, as well as how much you have available at this particular moment. Accordingly, if you were to adjust your timeline a little to 15-18 months, then you could invest in a variety of instruments over the next 2-3 months, and then just dollar cost average over the remaining period, until you cash out.

So in this regard, pick your various investment instruments, divide your $50k into $2-5K allotments, and distribute that money over the various instruments. I think that you should also plan out your cashflow for the next 15-18 months in order to continue to invest incoming money (on a dollar cost averaging basis) into the varying financial instruments that you chose. Ultimately, I would place between $5-10K of the initial funds into bitcoin, but certainly, you should be able to figure out some risk allocation that is comfortable for you.

I do NOT know about any one stop shopping bank that is going to get you more than 1% interest on cash, yet some other guy may know and be able to chime in with that kind of information.

Since June bitcoin fell over 30%, costs around 390$ now (and we all remember when it was over 1000$ at the beginning of the year). My question is whether you think it's pretty much end of the hype about bitcoin for the foreseeable future and it will slowly keep going down or you see some events on the horizon which may significantly increase it's price?

 

[jamaicabound]

[/quote]

Since June bitcoin fell over 30%, costs around 390$ now (and we all remember when it was over 1000$ at the beginning of the year). My question is whether you think it's pretty much end of the hype about bitcoin for the foreseeable future and it will slowly keep going down or you see some events on the horizon which may significantly increase it's price?
[/quote]

This is a question probably better suited for the Bitcoin thread as myself and a few others have been pondering/debating this very issue.

I would agree that Bitcoin is kind of out of the mainstreams consiousness. If you remember a year back every article in business magazines, investing magazines, blogs, yahoo cover stories were all about Bitcoin going sky hihg, about bitcoin exchanges getting hacked, people throwing out USB drives with several million Dollars worth of BTC.

Those stories were all just sensationalist garbage and actually made Bitcoin look bad. The stories about how bitcoins are unsafe because MtGox stole peoples coins made it appear to the general public that Bitcoins were flawed when in reality someone at an exchange stole peoples money. That would be like if scottrade stole someones money and then everyone said don't use the stock market because its flawed. The market isn't flawed that particular broker is.

Part of me thinks its bad we aren't getting the hype and mainstrema media and what have you following Bitcoin however at the same time that didn't really do anything good for BTC except for spur speculation and people buying it just for the novelty of it neither of which really means anything for the furthering or stability of Bitcoin. I actually think its kind of good were finding some stability and hopefully forming a bottom as opposed to 600 to 1200 to 800 to 500.

I can attest to the fact that bitcoin does have practical use and is used and critical to many industries that have trouble with traditional banking. A perfect example is I have some friends who are in the business of exporting electronics and cellphones to China and ohter places where they can get much more money for them. Its difficult if not nearly impossible to get a bank account setup to be sending wires to or receiving wires from China, especially larger wires. Many export businesses like this operate with Bitcoin, they receive their payment in Bitcoins and then turn btc into dollars right away.

 

[kufu]

@Jamaicabound,
thanks for mentioinng there's separate bitcoin topic. I'll continue discussion over there.

 

[Stun]

Or stocks of companies doing vaccine/treatment research in biotech area, focusing on filoviruses like Ebola or Marburgvirus

Tekmira Pharmaceuticals (TKMR) and NewLink Genetics (NLNK) are both developing Ebola vaccinations.

NLNK stock price is up 46% since my post.

$18.13 on October 10th, and $40.50 today. Holee cow.