Stock Market thread

The Beast1

Peacock
Gold Member
I've been sitting in cash for the better part of 2016 because of the election.

Missed the gains and am looking to enter back in now. What's on everyone's radar for this year?
 

Yeti

Kingfisher
Gold Member
RE: 2017 Stock Market thread

Buy and hold as usual. It's possible that 2017 will see 10% + gains again. It's possible also that we'll revert to the mean and experience a drop/correction this year. You never know. My answer as usual is low-cost index funds, purchased a couple weeks at a time.
 

Hell_Is_Like_Newark

Kingfisher
Gold Member
RE: 2017 Stock Market thread

I am staying in cash despite the recent run up in stocks. PE ratios are out of wack and I expect when Trump is sworn in, there will be a wave of negative economic data (from MSM and various government agencies). I won't be shocked by a 20% drop by early 3rd quarter this year in the S&P. I don't expect 'doom' (1930s style crash) as we have so many dollars flowing into the USA right now. The Chinese are not selling US treasuries out of spite.. they have to in order to cover the dollar outflows. China announced that they are ringing in the new year my tightening capital controls even further.

My biggest concerns are debt levels (in particular business and government) and the pending meltdown of state level pensions. The latter IMHO will start to happen during Trump's first term.

Real estate I expect will start to deflate. Current prices are only possible because of the incredibly low interest rates. I expect those rates to rise and at least at first, deflation of real estate prices.

I can't speak for the country as a whole, but in my neck of the country (NYC metro) purchase prices have again (like in the mid 2000's) greatly exceeded rent equivalent value. A lot of property has been bought with little money down with the investor hoping to flip. If prices decline say 10% or 15%, a lot of investors are going to be stuck with cash flow negative investments.

Part of me is hoping for a real estate crash. I was buying property until the early 2000s. Since late 2003, I can't buy, renovate, and rent with a comfortable positive cash flow. I would love to pick up a few more properties before getting to deep into my middle age.
 

Que enspastic

Ostrich
Gold Member
RE: 2017 Stock Market thread

I'd also be looking to hold stocks with exposure to Zinc and Uranium.

Zinc has a 3 year deficit in supply kicking up prices until demand can be met .

Uranium I can see a rebound from what looks to be a bottom in prices per lb - look at forecast for Chinese nuclear power plant construction over next few years, Trump also appears favourably disposed.
 

Chetthebaker

Woodpecker
RE: 2017 Stock Market thread

Gently selling off some biotech. Seems like some price regulation may be in the cards, though Trump won't be as aggressive as HRC..
 

Hell_Is_Like_Newark

Kingfisher
Gold Member
RE: 2017 Stock Market thread

samifon said:
Vincent Chase said:
Long USD, short oil, short gold, long American financial stock.

I don't see the dollar getting any higher.

Stronger against gold? Probably Not.

Now what if Italy and a few other countries leave the Euro? What if China starts beating the war drums louder and we start seeing the Chinese and Japanese military rattle sabres and possibly skirmish with each other?

The dollar may not get stronger, but the other fiat reserve currencies may get a whole lot weaker.
 
RE: 2017 Stock Market thread

Still long VRX and ENDP. Although will likely cut half if not all VRX on a pop up. Not terribly negative on biotech/pharma but think there's plenty of other places better to put money(energy, financials, select euro companies)
 

Brodiaga

Ostrich
Gold Member
RE: 2017 Stock Market thread

Good article about emerging markets. I am considering investing a small part of my portfolio in EM index funds and holding for at least a few years.

https://www.researchaffiliates.com/...kets-hat-trick-time-to-throw-your-hat-in.html

Key points:

-Long-term investors have a unique investing opportunity in emerging market assets given the very rare combination of cheap equity valuations, depressed currencies, and positive momentum in equity prices and economic fundamentals.
-Even after the strong rebounds in emerging market assets since January 2016, which ended prolonged bear markets across the asset class, expected real returns over the next decade are still very attractive.
 

fortysix

Woodpecker
Gold Member
RE: 2017 Stock Market thread

Looking at my portfolio (which took quite a beating these past few months) my allocation is set forth below. Looking over it, its pretty risky, but I'm still under thirty.

15% small cap Canadian gas explorer
- Gains here pretty much negated all my gold losses.

10% renewable energy (5% each):
Alterra Power
Brookfield Renwable LP

10% uranium small-cap (Fission Uranium Corp)
- Put in 5% six months ago, and 5% more about a month ago. Hoping for a big return here.

15% gold mining
- Doing very bad here this past month.

10% USL (12 month oil ETF)
- Very long and confident here.

10% Total US stockmarket index fund
- This used to be 90% of my portfolio, slowly scaled down this past year, but regret it.

the rest in cash.
 
RE: 2017 Stock Market thread

What about oil stocks? Oil seems to have bottomed out. With Trump wouldn´t an increase in oil price and oil companies stocks increase? I´m tempted in putting 50k in oil stocks. Some ETF or big players like Shell, etc.
 

fortysix

Woodpecker
Gold Member
RE: 2017 Stock Market thread

chakalaka said:
What about oil stocks? Oil seems to have bottomed out. With Trump wouldn´t an increase in oil price and oil companies stocks increase? I´m tempted in putting 50k in oil stocks. Some ETF or big players like Shell, etc.

I like oil, but every oil stock that I've seen is riddled with debt, and also has mostly recovered since the downturn. Do you have any recommendations?
 
RE: 2017 Stock Market thread

@fortysix: It's the nature of the industry to have debt, there is high capex. Are there those with low/minimal debt? Sure, but it's work to find them. Found this elsewhere I thought it was decent. Sunoco(SUN)
 

Travesty

Crow
Gold Member
RE: 2017 Stock Market thread

Healthcare ETFs had a great run from 2009-2015. Then they leveled off.

Boomers are aging though and medical expenses will only rise as more people live into their 90s with all this yoga and Whole Foods.

I have a bit in the 3X leveraged bull healthcare ETF: CURE. I expect it to do very well over the next decade.
 

fortysix

Woodpecker
Gold Member
RE: 2017 Stock Market thread

Travesty said:
Healthcare ETFs had a great run from 2009-2015. Then they leveled off.

Boomers are aging though and medical expenses will only rise as more people live into their 90s with all this yoga and Whole Foods.

I have a bit in the 3X leveraged bull healthcare ETF: CURE. I expect it to do very well over the next decade.

I bought the Vanguard Health Care Fund Investor Shares in my IRA last year at the peak, and I am down over $800 - its the biggest loss in my (relatively small) total portfolio (including the one where I just pick random stocks). I am hoping it will go up eventually - I bought with the same idea as you, just at a bad time.
 

tapthatass

Sparrow
RE: 2017 Stock Market thread

I am a trader. I generally trade oil, natgas and NIFTY (indian stock index).

There are only two possible directions, according to me.

1)A silent bull market - Just like the last two months, there might be a silent trending market . Look at S&P from 2004 to 2007. Something like that. It just keeps on slowly creeping up.

2)A roller coaster - 2017 can be a roller coaster because i) Trump might do something stupid ii) Political shocks like brexit
 
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