Stock Market thread

BB1

Robin
white22 said:
@BB1 Are you still bullish on Robinhood with nearly every brokerage going to no fees? I do realize there is a whole mass of investor who enjoy RH's simplicity, who continue to use for that reason. Also, those using it for cash management and to avoid 65¢ option fees. I also see many new investors dumping RH as they become more seasoned. Or does it all come down to their evaluation?
Will have to wait until they file an S-1, but what is attractive about Robinhood is that they are extremely innovative, and have a loyal client base of young investors.

But out of those companies I listed, Snowflake looks to be the best. Unfortunately the best quality IPOs these days are coming out at insane valuations.
 

Kona

Crow
Gold Member
BB1 said:
white22 said:
@BB1 Are you still bullish on Robinhood with nearly every brokerage going to no fees? I do realize there is a whole mass of investor who enjoy RH's simplicity, who continue to use for that reason. Also, those using it for cash management and to avoid 65¢ option fees. I also see many new investors dumping RH as they become more seasoned. Or does it all come down to their evaluation?
Will have to wait until they file an S-1, but what is attractive about Robinhood is that they are extremely innovative, and have a loyal client base of young investors.

But out of those companies I listed, Snowflake looks to be the best. Unfortunately the best quality IPOs these days are coming out at insane valuations.
Robinhood has been down all day.

I stopped using it last week, but my woman does. You can't sell. It's really frustrating.

Aloha!
 

The Wire

Kingfisher
Gold Member
Big f up from Robinhood

https://twitter.com/vivek_sevak_313/status/1234512425053020162




Anyway I know some who are putting money into the S&P but no way I am touching that despite any gains today. This virus has barely broken out yet and now you got cnn reporting 100 cases in the U.S. This is going to be at 1000 in no time just due to the size of the U.S.

Also not to mention UK might make an announcement tomorrow with lockdown measures.
 

Tail Gunner

Hummingbird
Gold Member
Kona said:
Robinhood has been down all day.
It is probably a platform problem because of high volume. Still, that is a nasty surprise.

On a related note, you guys do realize that you do not actually own your own stock (using typical custodial Street Name Registration)?

It is like depositing money with a bank. Everyone believes that it remains their own money. Not so. As soon as you deposit money with a bank it becomes an accounting-entry liability of the bank that entails counter-party risk on your part should the bank become insolvent. It is the same with stocks, unless you use The Direct Registration System (which almost no one does). As long as the financial system and the FDIC and SIPC remain solvent, none of this matters -- until it does. Just food for thought. Almost no one thinks about this stuff, until a Black Swan event hits.

Using a DRS provides you protection against counter-party risk. If your stockbroker goes bankrupt, and your shares were held in a street name, you are going to have to go through the recovery process through SIPC insurance—hopefully receiving a reimbursement. In contrast, if your stock is held through the DRS, it shouldn't matter because your claim is with the company you own part of, not the intermediary.
https://www.thebalance.com/what-is-the-direct-registration-system-or-drs-for-stocks-357536
 
What do you guys think about Budweiser (BUD). Is it a good buy right now? For those of you that are outside of the USA, how often does the name even come up? What's brand visibility like around you?
 

NoMoreTO

Pelican
Mr.GoodThread said:
What do you guys think about Budweiser (BUD). Is it a good buy right now? For those of you that are outside of the USA, how often does the name even come up? What's brand visibility like around you?
I have an acquaintance who is a pretty big wheel in Budweiser.

Bud is the premier brand, and they push budweiser in advertising and in bars here over other products. By other products, I mean that Budweiser owns Labatt (canadian beer company)t now, so you're not just buying one beer. Its also tied in with Stella So we drink Bud here in Canada (sometimes) but that isn't really what you should buy on, focus on the whole portfolio.

You're buying beer, seems solid long term. Probably a good counter cyclical if you could find something recession proof. Wine and craft beer are on the rise so the market trend might not favour BUD, but remember they just gobble up the craft brands once they reach a certain size/success.
 

Dr. Howard

Peacock
Gold Member
NoMoreTO said:
Mr.GoodThread said:
What do you guys think about Budweiser (BUD). Is it a good buy right now? For those of you that are outside of the USA, how often does the name even come up? What's brand visibility like around you?
I have an acquaintance who is a pretty big wheel in Budweiser.

Bud is the premier brand, and they push budweiser in advertising and in bars here over other products. By other products, I mean that Budweiser owns Labatt (canadian beer company)t now, so you're not just buying one beer. Its also tied in with Stella So we drink Bud here in Canada (sometimes) but that isn't really what you should buy on, focus on the whole portfolio.

You're buying beer, seems solid long term. Probably a good counter cyclical if you could find something recession proof. Wine and craft beer are on the rise so the market trend might not favour BUD, but remember they just gobble up the craft brands once they reach a certain size/success.
This is just my personal opinion, but I think that BUD has lost market share in the US to Pabst and Busch.

In Canada, and I have idea why, Bud has always been popular, more popular than it even seems to me in the US.

I am 40, and I have never been to a person's house where they have Budweiser, Stella is popular with the women though and Labatt, while in the cooler as an import at many restaurants has tasted like it has been there for a LONG time when i've had it.
 

sonoran_

Kingfisher
Gold Member
BUD has been declining in price since Oct 2016 from highs of $132 to $57 right now. It is starting to drop down to a strong support and demand zone, so for it down to even $50, it would take heavy selling pressure to keep it below that.

Having said that, the trend is still down and buying right now is knife catching. You could catch THE low on BUD or you could lose 10-15% of your equity if it does go down to test $50 area. Not only that, for it to start appreciating, it will take a long ass time, meaning your capital is tied up and you lose based on opportunity cost.

You could swing it up to $61 for the short term with a high probability, but bottoms take time to develop.

Edit: Oh and NoMoreTO mentioned the correlation of recession and alcohol. Could it be that BUD is bottoming right as recession fears are around the corner and that when the recession comes, BUD will start mooning again?? hmmm
 

Tail Gunner

Hummingbird
Gold Member
Mr.GoodThread said:
What do you guys think about Budweiser (BUD). Is it a good buy right now? For those of you that are outside of the USA, how often does the name even come up? What's brand visibility like around you?
See post #663. Alcohol companies are good recessionary stocks, so the answer depends on whether you believe the U.S. is entering a recession.

BTW: Dr. Howard -- BUD is the stock symbol for Anheuser Busch.
 

scotian

Crow
Gold Member
Bud is now available Colombia only in the past year or so and they’re marketing it hard, it’s priced low close to the domestic beers. Like other US products that have appeared there recently (KFC, Subway, Star Bucks) they seem to do well among locals with money who are keen to show off their wealth, even if they can’t really afford it, it’s a status thing.

I worked as a summer student at a Labatt brewery where they brewed Bud, back then in 2001/2002, Canada was the only country in the world where Anheuser-Busch didn’t brew the beer itself, Labatt did under their license. Every time the Bud boys from St Louis came up to inspect the brewery, we all worked OT to ensure that the place was spotless, they have very high brewing standards. A few of the full time employees I knew switched to Bud from other Canadian beers for that reason, to them it was the cleanest beer available.
 
I guess I'd have to see how stable it was during the last recession, because even though beer tends to do well during the recession BUD has been steadily dropping over 5 years.
 

Emancipator

Hummingbird
Gold Member
Their debt is quite high due to buying out any large competition they can.

Every wide-net brewer hasn't done well in the past ten years due to market appetite for a billion different micro brewery IPAs.

Prefer spirits/alcohol brands (diageo, Brown Forman).

Constellation Brands (Corona/Modelo) is a good tradition beer play based on US demographics, dipped a lot since association with the pandemic name.
They also pretty much control/own Canopy Growth (WEED)
 

white22

Sparrow
BUD will have their day! When I do not know. I bought the the news on this one for $100/share at the end of 2016 and have road this all the way down to where it is currently. Soon I plan to begin accumulating a massive position on top of the one I already own.

The market has and continues to punishing BUD hard for the amount of debt they took on in 2016 to purchase SABMiller. They have taken their debt serious and are paying it down quickly; it's almost equal to their equity, similar ratio to before the purchase. The Fed cutting rates should help them refinance even more. These low rates will go state to their bottom line. The acquisition added to their already MASSIVE distribution not to mention many cost synergies that took time to sort out and I believe will really start to show in the time ahead.

Only things I don't like or see as negatives are:
-The craft beer fad is definitely cutting into sales, same is true with marijuana.
-I personally wish they were partnered with Canapy Growth vs Tilray (may have no effect on share price, just personal preference).
-Bud owns Corona whose sales are down due to the coronavirus (dumb luck, what are the odds), they also have a brewery in Wuhan (lmao).

I think the perfect storm is brewing: The bears have beaten this down into oversold territory, coronavirus and threat of recession drove it even lower, fundamentals have and continue to improve dramatically, the "recession proof" attribute will kick in, a small short squeeze will be in play. This is a blue chip value stock with high growth potential.

$54 with a PE of 12 is a gift and with this market sentiment and the coronavirus I believe it will head lower yet. I would love to hear others thoughts especially contradictory to mine.
 

Emancipator

Hummingbird
Gold Member
BUD owns Corona and Modela outside of the US, the rights to the brands in the US belongs to Constellation Brands

white22 I do think that the industry is beaten down and oversold, but to be frank you're bagholding.
 

Oak

Robin
Anyone know what is happening with Tesla? Massively shorted, yet up multiples.

I like Musk, but how can a stock that's over 10% in shorts be up this much?

Are the short-sellers expecting Germans/Japanese to come in and undercut them soon?

Why such a huge gain on slim earnings?
 

NoMoreTO

Pelican
Tesla is one of those hype stocks. Granted the hype could be true, but it is priced up very high with little earnings.

Stocks like this are very hard to understand. There are likely lots of buyers still holding the price, but lots of naysayers shorting it.
 
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