Stock Market thread

Deepdiver

Crow
Gold Member
Now that the NASDAQ Mega Techs are sitting on Trillions of new stock wealth they need to put capital to work in buyouts to continue to grow...

Today's Buyouts Newsletter suggestions:

Synchronoss Tech Inc. (SNCR) is a white-label personal cloud service.
It works with big network companies like AT&T and Verizon.
SNCR reported strong earnings and traded sharply higher. Shares are now above the 200-day average, signifying a positive long-term trend.
The company also broke out of a 5-month range.
This is a momentum tech play. It participates in the small-cap theme along with the strong tech market.
SNCR could be a potential takeover target, which could lead to sharp overnight gains.
Post earnings drift (or PED) — stocks like SNCR tend to drift higher after a positive earnings report.

Sharpspring Inc. (SHSP) is a cloud marketing services company that helps small businesses with digital marketing.
SHSP had a sharp breakout on earnings yesterday jumping 10% higher.
The 200-day average has flattened (showing the long-term trend is turning positive), and shares also broke out above a previous downtrend line.
The $10-level has been a resistance point for the stock. Now that SHSP is pushing above that level, it could become support.
Our target for the stock could move to $15 from here (above the previous high from February).
As 5G rolls out, these cloud companies will become good buyout candidates — giving investors large overnight gains.
 

Deepdiver

Crow
Gold Member
Interesting weekly S&P 500 Emini Futures Chart, previous swing high All Time High week of 17 Feb = 3396.50 Today and this week's swing high is 3396.25 making a clasic A to B wave top turning Pattern...

The B wave is allowed to retrace A and still be a vailid B however if it goes above and exceeds the A high it becomes a larger 5 Wave. Large A wave the large Red weekly candles down completed inn a Classic A-B-C corrective waves down in orange followed by a major B wave in purple 5 waves retracement up - waiting for Major C wave down now.

So the question is does the Fed allow a quick C wave correction of perhaps 38% before the next 5 wave up to new All Time Highs before the Election or just keep driving up a larger 5 wave now after overcoming previous ATH resistance... We live in interesting times.

SnPEmini21Aug2020.jpg
 
Liquidated a position yesterday after 383% gains. I’m not sure if it was the right call though because the company’s on track to continue doing well far into the future, I just didn’t want to get greedy and then crushed by a pullback the way I did when I failed to sell my crypto in Dec 2018. I suppose time will tell. What do you guys usually look for before you sell?
 

gework

Ostrich
Gold Member
Profits are profits.

crushed by a pullback the way I did when I failed to sell my crypto in Dec 2018.

2017?

I suppose time will tell. What do you guys usually look for before you sell?

For individual stocks it is more difficult. For broad markets above 70 RSI on 1w candles is typically good.

The general market is screaming sell like never before.



Commodities to stocks says buy commodities and dump stocks.






My aim is to buy on the downside of a financial crash, hold cira ten years and sell when indicators look bad, then move to bonds/gold. You are going to exit before the top, but if you can cycle in and out at relative highs and lows you are going to beat the market.
 

Deepdiver

Crow
Gold Member
Profits are profits.



2017?



For individual stocks it is more difficult. For broad markets above 70 RSI on 1w candles is typically good.

The general market is screaming sell like never before.



Commodities to stocks says buy commodities and dump stocks.






My aim is to buy on the downside of a financial crash, hold cira ten years and sell when indicators look bad, then move to bonds/gold. You are going to exit before the top, but if you can cycle in and out at relative highs and lows you are going to beat the market.

I really like Casey Research Dow to Gold ratio - idea is to sell stocks and buy Gold above 15 (A good Call now) and sell gold and buy Stocks below 5. Easy way to sleep well at night long term.
 

Deepdiver

Crow
Gold Member
Liquidated a position yesterday after 383% gains. I’m not sure if it was the right call though because the company’s on track to continue doing well far into the future, I just didn’t want to get greedy and then crushed by a pullback the way I did when I failed to sell my crypto in Dec 2018. I suppose time will tell. What do you guys usually look for before you sell?

Best advice I was ever given is to lock in your profits when they come especially based upon my S&P Chart above...
 
Speaking of locking in my profits, I just sold off about 20% of stake in AMD, reaping some tidy profits. Considering selling the whole stake, or at least a majority. I think AMD is a great company, but this market is so overdue for a correction I feel there will be time to buy back in later. Thoughts?
 
Speaking of locking in my profits, I just sold off about 20% of stake in AMD, reaping some tidy profits. Considering selling the whole stake, or at least a majority. I think AMD is a great company, but this market is so overdue for a correction I feel there will be time to buy back in later. Thoughts?

Over-valued and currently selling for more than its 1-Year Estimates on Yahoo Finance think it’ll sell for in a year. I’d sell some and hold some, depending on the company’s long term outlook, but I wouldn’t buy any more at the current price. That’s just my own perspective and not financial advice.
 

EndlessGravity

Kingfisher
In the event of a stock market crash, what's the likely outcome for silver ETFs?

Since this crisis has the same cause as the 2007 crisis, I would look at factors and price around that time. I own silver but don't pay close attention to it. However, you'll see there was a price spike, probably as investors went for initial safety.

Sites like ZH pumped gold and to a lesser extent silver for years but you'll also see the price came back down as the crisis abated and somewhat quickly. The secondary effects to the economy would last longer but by 2011/2012 the real estate market had bottomed out and started to rise.

I'd personally look at what were probably liquidations in gold and possibly silver back in March as over-leveraged actors tried not to go under. It's anyone's guess if another imminent crash will be due to dollar shortages, as bond prices are screaming, or economic fallout catching up with a disconnected market.
 

Arado

Pelican
Gold Member
Since this crisis has the same cause as the 2007 crisis, I would look at factors and price around that time. I own silver but don't pay close attention to it. However, you'll see there was a price spike, probably as investors went for initial safety.

Sites like ZH pumped gold and to a lesser extent silver for years but you'll also see the price came back down as the crisis abated and somewhat quickly. The secondary effects to the economy would last longer but by 2011/2012 the real estate market had bottomed out and started to rise.

I'd personally look at what were probably liquidations in gold and possibly silver back in March as over-leveraged actors tried not to go under. It's anyone's guess if another imminent crash will be due to dollar shortages, as bond prices are screaming, or economic fallout catching up with a disconnected market.

Miners will get hurt in the short term as investors will be quick to sell them to generate liquidity to cover margin calls, gold and bitcoin will also take major hits like they did in March. They will likely skyrocket afterwards once the market digests the magnitude of the likely monetary and fiscal wave that would come in response and its inflationary impact.
 
Last edited:

Deepdiver

Crow
Gold Member
Harry Dent discusses current Gold, Nasdaq and S&P bubbles, current throw over above long term 90 year, 10 year and 1 year Trend Channels, Megaphone patterns and breakouts into pending correction targets:

[youtube]
 

oilbreh

Woodpecker
Harry is still the contrarian saying gold going down to 800s.. Brett Johnson has a similar idea (Harry - no new debt being issued / Brett - dollar demand due to debt repayment by other countries) although Brett considers that gold will rise in tandem.
 

Deepdiver

Crow
Gold Member
The S&P Moves in 50s and 100s (at 3501/3500 now) Next Target on S&P Futures 10 Year Continuous Chart...

10 Year wave 1:

1334 - 666 = 668

Wave 5 low 1804 and 5 High = 3524.50

3524.50 - 1804 = 1720.50 divided by 668 = 2.58

668 X 2.618 = 1748 + 1804 wave 5 low = target 3552.8 (3550) in a week or so...

10 Year 5 Wave trend chart quite volatile but making new All Time Highs and the Trend still strong in the up direction.

ES1!FuturesWkly10Year.jpg
 

Deepdiver

Crow
Gold Member
Investors Should Tread Lightly As Wild Cards Will Dominate This Election
By Jim Rickards, Dan Amoss and Nomi PrinsPosted August 31, 2020
This is it. The presidential election is just 70 days away. The first presidential debate is just 35 days away. The candidates have been nominated and the tickets are set. The party platforms have been announced. It will be a sprint to the finish line from here. Game on.

We told readers of Strategic Intelligence last January that our editorial plan for 2020 was to cover the presidential election in depth. Of course, we’re not a political newsletter; we’re an investment newsletter. Still, there’s no doubt about the fact that politics affect investment choices especially when the nation and the political parties are so deeply divided.

For example, Donald Trump wants to keep the capital gains tax rate at 20% and possibly lower it. Joe Biden proposes to almost double the capital gains tax to 39.6%. There’s no faster way to crash the stock market than to double the capital gains tax (and equalize it with an increased personal income tax rate of 39.6%).

That’s the easiest illustration of how politics affects investment returns, but there are many others. Any investor who ignores politics could be walking into a market buzz saw.

Our 2020 political coverage plans lasted about 30 days before it was blown to bits by the COVID-19 pandemic and a New Great Depression. Politics still mattered, but it was fourth or fifth on everyone’s list of key issues after health, unemployment, business failures and a crashing stock market.

We pivoted our editorial content right away to drill down on these critical issues. Through February, March, April and into the summer we offered up-to-date analysis on the spread of the disease, the responsibility of the Chinese government for letting it get out of control, the rise of unemployment and the stress placed on small-and-medium sized businesses especially the restaurants, bars, salons, gyms, and other small businesses that collectively provide 45% of GDP and create almost 50% of all jobs.

The State of Businesses and the Fed in Today’s America
Big business weathered the storm fairly well especially those in technology, telecommunications and digital and streaming services that were relatively unaffected by the pandemic. Some companies like Amazon and Zoom boomed as people shopped and worked from home. Netflix saw subscriptions soar as movie theatres remained closed.

Even some bricks-and-mortar stores like Best Buy did fine as customers raced to buy TVs, audio systems and smart phones to compensate for the fact that arenas and theatres were closed and concerts and sporting events were cancelled. They were the lucky ones.

Other businesses were not so lucky. Airlines, hotels, casinos, resorts and cruise ship lines were devastated and have still not recovered. Even as the economy slowly reopens, it’s not clear that Americans are in any hurry to fly for any reason or to visit popular destinations such as Las Vegas, New York or Miami. Those industries will take at least two years to recover. Some may never recover.

The depth of the economic crisis combined with a 35% plunge in stocks from late February to late March prompted a government policy response of unprecedented magnitude. The Congress added $4 trillion of new deficit spending on top of a baseline deficit of $1 trillion for fiscal 2020.

The projected deficit of $5 trillion will bring the national debt to $27 trillion or 135% of GDP once the decline in GDP is taken into account. That’s the highest for the U.S. in history (higher than the end of World War II) and one of the highest debt-to-GDP ratios in the world after Japan, Greece, Lebanon and Italy.

Of course, the U.S. will not default on this debt because we can print the dollars to pay it, but the implications of the high debt level for slower growth and potential inflation are daunting.

While Congress was busy spending $5 trillion, the Fed was just as busy printing $4 trillion of new money and guaranteeing trillions of dollars more in obligations. In late 2019, the Fed had got its balance sheet down to around $3.6 trillion from the record high of about $4.5 trillion in early 2015. Today, the Fed’s balance sheet is over $7 trillion, almost $4 trillion higher than in late 2019 and the highest ever.

The Fed has also guaranteed the commercial paper market, the corporate bond market, the municipal bond market, the Payroll Protection Plan loans, and far more and engaged in trillions of dollars of currency swaps with foreign central banks including the European Central Bank, Bank of Japan, Bank of England and many more.

The combined $9 trillion of deficit spending and money printing worked. No major financial institutions failed. The stock market rallied in late March 2020 and major stock market indices were at or near new all-time highs by late August. Unemployment peaked in May and started to decline in June and July. Job losses were huge, but not as bad as many expected.
 
Top