Stock Market thread

Sandstorm

Kingfisher
Guys - I need a new home! The trading room I'm currently in ... I can't take it anymore! I need a red-pilled room. Anyone know of one? The fucking guy in my room today said that "like her or not, Ruth Bader Ginsburg was "AMAZING" - what an absolute cunt.

Any of you in a stock trading room where the head traders and mods aren't total cucks?

Help a brother out, please.
 

Deepdiver

Crow
Gold Member
1601073522567.png

Interesting reset the revised 2 to 4 baseline and clones to wave 3 high and set RMS to exact 50% on the Wave 3 to 4 purple line and this intersected with top of Wave 1... Go Figure the wave 3 was so long there is no wave 1 to 3 parallel to the current wave 2-4 Baseline.

The A wave of the Wave 4 ABC is high = 3576 on 2Sept
A Low = 3286 on 9Sept for A leg = 290
B High 16 Sept 3419.50
C Low 24 Sept = 3198 0r 221.5 C leg so far or 76% of A

The C leg = 100% of A would be a wave 4 target of 3129.5 near the 200DMA of 3093 a 29.5 point Difference.

So Wave C and 4 Could move a bit further down before a hard 4 Bottom into 5 Up... Wave 5 Up from yesterday's Wave4-C low intersect the upper Trend Channel on Nov 3rd Election Day at a New All Time High of 3750

1.618 Retrace = 3810 (50s and 100s) Before the Major ABC Corrective that simple 200DMA Sine Wave oscillation as the Sensei mentioned is 500 Points below the 200DMA of 3100 for Major ABC Correction from 5 High to 2100. in the Spring.
 

Deepdiver

Crow
Gold Member
JPMorgan will pay the largest CFTC monetary penalty ever and admitted wrongdoing in order to resolve a case surrounding claims of market manipulation in the trading of precious metals and Treasury securities, Bloomberg first reported.

The case covers an eight-year period and relates to the practice of "spoofing," where traders put in large orders to buy or sell a security with no intention of executing the order, creating the appearance of demand or supply for a particular asset.

JPMorgan will pay $920 million, which includes a $436.4 million fine, $311.7 million in restitution, and $172 million in disgorgement.
 

BB1

Robin
RE: 2017 Stock Market thread



MDB and ESTC are a couple of my favourite companies to own. High volatility is to be expected with these type of SaaS companies that are disrupting huge industries in front of our eyes. Im happy to hold these for the long term.

Last week I doubled my position in Alteryx (AYX) at $88. They are posting fantastic metrics - eg. "Achieved a dollar-based net expansion rate (annual contract value based) of 133% for the second quarter of 2019." :

https://investor.alteryx.com/news-a...d-Quarter-2019-Financial-Results/default.aspx

Alteryx (AYX) now at $145 - a solid 64% gain over the past year.
 
Zscaler (ZS) is now $145 - a nice 100% return in the 14 months since I posted on it.
Wish that I would've taken your suggestions more seriously when I first saw the posts. My 2 main companies that I dropped the ball on are Fiverr and Shopify. I could've got in on Fiverr when it was still in the $30s, but certain roadblocks prevented me from pulling the trigger on it.

I feel like we're due for a crash (but then again people have been saying this for over a year), and I don't really want to risk investing in companies like ZS and AYX at their current prices. Any other picks that you're currently feeling good about that are at a reasonable entry price?
 

Deepdiver

Crow
Gold Member
Interesting news regarding SPX Put/Call ratios today:


S&P 500: FROTHY CAN MEAN FLIMSY (0915 EDT/1315 GMT)

As the S&P 500 index SPX continues to recover off its late September low, the benchmark index is now within 3% of its record high.

With this, a contrarian measure of sentiment, based on the CBOE equity put/call (P/C) ratio, is once again suggesting an overly bullish, or especially complacent market, vulnerable to a reversal. (Click on chart below.)

Indeed, the 5-day moving average (DMA) of the P/C ratio has now fallen to 0.43. Of note, since late 2018, sub-0.60 readings have coincided with significant S&P 500 highs.

More recently, in early June, after this measure fell to a two-decade low at 0.402, the SPX promptly slid more than 8% in just five trading days (tds). And after its late-August low at 0.406, the SPX collapsed nearly 10% in just 14 tds.

That said, on the plus side, the SPX is rallying off its late September lows, which occurred just after an important turn date. Additionally, market internals are showing strength, suggesting there is still room to run.

Another factor to consider is that ahead of the three sharpest SPX declines, in late 2018, early 2020, and just last month, the P/C measure made a higher low against a higher-SPX-closing high. This pattern has yet to form.

The P/C measure could always fall further prior to a market reversal. In any event, at this time, its historically low levels in themselves can suggest caution.

(Terence Gabriel)
 

Deepdiver

Crow
Gold Member
After making a hard wave 4 low of 3198 on 24 Sept on the 100 Day moving average in a classic ABC down move - we are into wave 5 up breaking above .618 and .786 retracements the past 3 days in impulsing minor 3rd wave of 5th up likely to continue to or past previous ATH - upper trend channel target 3750 on election day with low put call ratio may actually tag this number on Nov 3rd for likely ending Wave 5 top - could top before then if no stimulus so strong resistance likely at previous ATH of 3576.25 set on 3 Sept...

1602540996498.png
 
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Pointer

Woodpecker
1.618 Retrace = 3810 (50s and 100s) Before the Major ABC Corrective that simple 200DMA Sine Wave oscillation as the Sensei mentioned is 500 Points below the 200DMA of 3100 for Major ABC Correction from 5 High to 2100. in the Spring.

What's the theory behind a correction down to 2100 in the spring ? I just don't see it happening unless there will be another catastrophic event.
 

Deepdiver

Crow
Gold Member
What's the theory behind a correction down to 2100 in the spring ? I just don't see it happening unless there will be another catastrophic event.

Based Upon the Daily S&P 500 Futures Chart I posted above that has corrected back to the RMS midpoint as expected we are into the 5th Wave up in a minor 5 Wave pattern, recent correction is the expected minor 4th... When we complete the Major 5th wave up - 5th being most indeterminant could top at previous ATH 3576.25 on 3 Sept on ESZ20 December S&P 500 futures or all the way up to the upper trend line 3750 on election day. Lots of institutional shorts at the previous ATH. When a hard major 5th completes we transition into a major ABC correction with 3 possible targets see 10 Year Weekly Continuous Futures Chart below...

First Support is Sine Wave above and below the Dailly 200 Moving Average chart above approx 500 points above at the ATH so 500 below is approx 2600... then the March low below at 2200 and then 10 year Supercycle wave 4 at 1850 so those are the major ABC corrective targets likely to accelerate with a Biden Harris High Tax regime victory... many institutions will be selling to lock in current 20% capital gains versus Biden promised 39.5% new cap gains... obviously this will accelerate the ABC down momentum... if Trump reelected we will still correct to a range between 2600 to 2200. Elections do have consequences. Of course after the Major ABC correction we will then transition into a new major 5 Wave up as the economy accelerates in 2021/2022 if we avoid a major Foreclosure Crisis as the Covid Foreclosure and Evictions moratoriums eventually end.

1602981243109.png
 
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Deepdiver

Crow
Gold Member
Wave Degrees Hierarchy and Notational Nomenclature:

Grand Supercycle approx 100 Years Monthly, Supercycle Weekly 10 to 20 years down to subminutte on an hourly basis...

Exact 5th of 5th of 5th Wave tops were calculated by RN Elliot from Grand Supercycle down to lower degree Minor waves and if needed Minute Daily and he did it all by hand on graph paper.

Lower Degree Waves must complete first then Larger Degree Waves govern... Waves alone are only a guide as there are 50+ technical confirmations that take years to fully understand.

From: https://elliottwave-forecast.com/elliott-wave-theory/

1602984493151.png

Wave Theory has definite math rules so more accurate than 4th Turning:

The Strauss–Howe generational theory, also known as the Fourth Turning theory or simply the Fourth Turning, describes a theorized recurring generation cycle in American history and global history. It was devised by William Strauss and Neil Howe. According to the theory, historical events are associated with recurring generational personas (archetypes). Each generational persona unleashes a new era (called a turning) lasting around 20–22 years, in which a new social, political, and economic climate exists. They are part of a larger cyclical "saeculum" (a long human life, which usually spans between 80 and 90 years, although some saecula have lasted longer). The theory states that after every saeculum, a crisis recurs in American history, which is followed by a recovery (high). During this recovery, institutions and communitarian values are strong. Ultimately, succeeding generational archetypes attack and weaken institutions in the name of autonomy and individualism, which ultimately creates a tumultuous political environment that ripens conditions for another crisis.

The last major crisis WWII ended in 1945... so 2020 to 2045 we will be living in interesting times.
 
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Deepdiver

Crow
Gold Member
Interesting day today Monday 19 Oct... Got to love Fibonacci...

Set the Daily Fibonacci Retracement chart to half hour and overnight 3 Test rule of the Daily .786 at 9:30AM open tested the third time and down to close on the .618 S&P moves on 50s and 100s as key Institutional targets.

1603144671446.png

Larger Daily Chart with the Full Range Fibonacci Retracements, ran into strong resistance at the merge of the Daily 50 yellow and 20 Day blue merge of the Moving Averages... likely close to the hard finish of the down minor 4th wave of the Major 5 Wave moving into the minor 5th Wave up...
1603144888335.png
 

Deepdiver

Crow
Gold Member
Interesting Stansberry Digest Melt Up email I just received:

The 'Melt Up' gets its spokesman... Gamblers flood into the stock market... Today's action is looking like 1999... Robinhood trading goes wild... It all points to the Melt Up kicking into high gear... You won't want to miss this announcement...

Editor's note
: We're turning things over to our good friend Dr. Steve Sjuggerud for the next couple of days...

Steve reintroduced Digest readers to his "Melt Up" thesis in our Masters Series over the weekend. He explained why there's more upside than you can imagine... and detailed the $6 trillion in "fuel" that's going to power the next great asset boom.

Today, Steve will help you learn all about the names and faces being attached to the Melt Up. Someone we've talked about in the Digest before is now the poster child for this phenomenon. And as Steve explains, that shows us exactly where we're at in the Melt Up...

'Stocks only go up,' outspoken day trader Dave Portnoy often boasts on Twitter...

On up days, Portnoy is the best there is. At least, that's what he tells anyone who will listen.

Regular readers might remember one bold claim he made on Twitter earlier this summer. As our colleague Dan Ferris detailed in the June 12 Digest, Portnoy said...

There's nobody who can argue that Warren Buffett is better at the stock market than I am right now. I'm better than he is. It's a fact. You're just gonna have to deal with it.
When the market moves against Portnoy, he always has some story to explain why. But I (Steve Sjuggerud) can tell you that one part of his act is consistent...

Portnoy is an emotional roller coaster.

He bets on whatever is hot, or whatever strikes his fancy. He bets big, wins big, and loses big. And he tells you all about it.

As you've probably learned if you've read the Digest over the past few months...

Portnoy built a huge following through his Barstool Sports business, which is now worth nearly $500 million...

Barstool Bets is his latest venture... It's a sports betting and gambling website.

And if you think about the idea of Barstool Bets for a moment, Portnoy's recent antics in the stock market start to make a bit more sense...

You probably know that the U.S. Supreme Court effectively legalized online sports betting in mid-2018. Companies have been scrambling to cash in on legal sports gambling ever since.

Then the COVID-19 pandemic hit, and professional sports shut down for months. That put sports bettors like Portnoy out of commission. But they still wanted to gamble.

And the stock market provided the perfect place for them to get their fix...

Betting on stocks has nearly all of the components of sports betting built into it – there's risk, skill, luck, and drama. People get to pick their favorites. And they get to spin stories to explain why their picks are the best.

You can change nearly everything about the who, what, where, when, and why. You can swap team names for stock names... and folks will find a way to roll the dice.

Plain and simple, people just like to gamble...

You and I might not see the stock market as gambling. But these folks do... And they're piling in as the market melts up – to a degree that I haven't seen since 1999.

Pro sports finally ramped back up in late summer as COVID-19 restrictions eased...

That gave hungry gamblers like Portnoy something to bet on again. But here's the thing... The gamblers still aren't leaving the stock market.

I was confident that we would soon see a true Melt Up in stocks – where the public piles into the stock market. But I never imagined that the Melt Up would be fueled (at least in part) by bored sports bettors during a full-blown pandemic.

Who could have imagined that? Yet... here we are.

For the first time in more than 20 years, the general public is buying stocks like they're in a casino. This, my friend, means that the Melt Up is here. And that brings us back to Portnoy and beyond...

You see, Portnoy has become the poster child of the Melt Up mindset. But it's not just him...

In fact, one brokerage has come to define it. You probably already know it by name...

I'm talking about Robinhood.

We've seen a rush of new traders lately – and the surge in visits to Robinhood's "Learn" page shows it. Daily visits to that section of its site soared 250% between January and June.

Our friend and sentiment data wizard Jason Goepfert (of SentimenTrader.com) has been tracking trading activity on Robinhood, too. The numbers have been staggering...

For example, just take the number of Robinhood traders holding leveraged broad market exchange-traded funds (ETFs). In December, the number was roughly 20,000. As of May, nearly 100,000 Robinhood users were holding leveraged ETFs.

That, my friends, is a stock market frenzy at work. This is the Melt Up in action.

If you want more proof that Robinhood has become ground zero for retail-investor mania...

You just need to look at the complaints.

Generally speaking, the various U.S. consumer protection agencies don't get a whole lot of complaints about brokerage firms. The rules are pretty clear. And both sides are supposed to know how the game works.

But over at Robinhood, things are a little different...

In the first half of the year, newly minted investors have filed more than 400 complaints against the company – roughly four times the norm for its competitors. The word in government circles is that some regulators feel like they've become the company's customer-service department.

It's notoriously hard to get ahold of anyone at the company. That's part of how it has kept costs low.

And that, along with mountains of venture funding, is a big part of why Robinhood has helped usher in a new era of zero-fee trading.

This, as I'm sure you know, is a relatively new innovation.

And boy oh boy, has zero-fee trading made it easier to get into the market...

In the past, trading fees could easily eat up a small investing account.

Now, even major brokerages have slashed their fees since companies like Robinhood entered the scene. And that means the "dumb money" can gamble with smaller amounts without feeling like the house is taking too big a cut.

Only have $20 to invest? No problem. The trade is free.

Oh wait... That stock is $100 a share? Not to worry – Robinhood will sell you a fractional share you can afford.

Don't be fooled into thinking these small trades don't matter, though... These traders might not have much money on their own. But together, they can push the market around... For example, the trading volume of "call buys to open" from small traders in the options market has skyrocketed.

In 2019, there were less than 5 million of these contracts. Today, there are around 20 million. That's a near fourfold increase in less than a year... And it's the highest number of bullish contracts on record.

This might sound complicated. But the story it tells is simple... Small investors are making record bullish bets on stocks in the options markets. And the levels we're seeing today are an order of magnitude higher than they've been at any time in history.

The entire financial-services industry has taken notice...

Julian Emanuel is a managing director at BTIG. That's a financial-services company that is among the top 20 global brokers by volume of completed trades.

In a recent interview, Emanuel shared a clear-as-day Melt Up indicator. It may sound obscure at first. But it's just a way of looking at bullish and bearish bets.

Here's what he said...

The price of out-of-the-money calls, as was the case throughout August, is still trading at a premium to the price of out-of-the-money puts.
Now, you need to know one thing here... Normally, the prices on these kinds of options cancel each other out. You can read the sentiment of the market simply by seeing if people are piling up their bets on one side of a trade.

But today, folks are spending way too much on bullish bets. In other words, they've bought into Portnoy's view that "stocks only go up."

These folks will push the market higher than you could possibly imagine.

If you think people are being irrational now... just wait. This is going to get a whole lot crazier before it ends. And as longtime Digest readers know, I want to make sure you get the most out of this phenomenon – this Melt Up – that you can.

Of course, it's not all good news...

The classic history of Melt Ups shows that ALL the newcomers – unfortunately – will ultimately get wiped out.

The market has a dastardly history of sucking in the largest possible number of unsuspecting participants on the way up... and then wiping all of them out on the way down. They ride the tide all the way in, and then they ride it all the way out.

But the thing is, savvy investors will make a lot of money as that tide comes in.

We know the tide will come in and go out. What you need to do right now – quite frankly – is to play with fire...

So today, I'm asking you to make a gamble – and yes, it's a gamble...

I want you to gamble that you can ride the tide all the way in... and get off the boat in time as the tide goes out.

Anyone who knows me will tell you that I am typically a conservative investor. But there are a few moments when I step out of that conservative way of investing.

Now is one of those times.

I learned a big lesson during the last Melt Up in 1999. I was too conservative with my own money. I saw the general public buying into stocks for the first time in my career. I knew it was a danger sign... So personally, I missed out on the Melt Up in 1999.

I missed out on the huge losses, of course. But importantly, I missed out on the huge gains, too.

I decided that when this type of event rolled around again, I would not do the same thing. Instead, I would ride the tide as far as it would take me. And then when the tide started going out, I would step off the boat.

The time to do that is now.

It's exactly why I'm hosting a Melt Up-themed event this Wednesday night...

This is a huge story.

I've spent years getting this message out to the public. And it's never been more important than it is today.

That's because the Melt Up is here... more clearly than it has been at any other time in recent years. All the pieces of the puzzle are coming together... And it now has its poster child (and more).

So in just two days, I'm sitting down with legendary stock picker Matt McCall for a special event. We're going to discuss what's happening... and help you learn about everything you can do right now to take advantage of it.

The event is completely free. It begins at 8 p.m. Eastern time on Wednesday night. And for everyone who shows up, Matt and I are both giving away a couple of recommendations. All you need to do to attend is sign up right here.

I hope to see you there. And I hope you take advantage of today's Melt Up.
 

Kekemet

Sparrow
Interesting Stansberry Digest Melt Up email I just received:

The 'Melt Up' gets its spokesman... Gamblers flood into the stock market... Today's action is looking like 1999... Robinhood trading goes wild... It all points to the Melt Up kicking into high gear... You won't want to miss this announcement...

....

I watched the event. It was just an infomercial. Unfortunately I can't afford his services. I liked his idea with biotech though.
 

Deepdiver

Crow
Gold Member
The Latest Picks from Strategic Intelligence:

5 Stocks for a Trump win:
  1. KLX Energy Services (NASDAQ: KLXE)
  2. Range Resources Corp. (NYSE: RRC)
  3. Dorian LPG (NYSE: LPG)
  4. Antero Midstream (NYSE: AM)
  5. Cleveland-Cliffs (NYSE: CLF)
Clearly bets on an Oil and Gas boom as Covid comes under control and CLF is a major Iron and Steel Infrastructure Bill play...

Regardless of which political party wins the presidency and controls the U.S. government after 2020, the dollar is likely to get debased by high government spending and loose monetary policy from the Federal Reserve. Different scenarios will determine the rate at which the dollar gets debased.

In an ever-changing market environment, Jim Rickards’ Strategic Intelligence will continue to issue recommendations and alerts to give you the chance to profit and prepare for risk. We’ll be in touch soon.

5 Stocks for a Biden win
  1. Kinross Gold (NYSE: KGC)
  2. Yamana Gold (NYSE: AUY)
  3. Barrick Gold (NYSE: GOLD)
  4. CME Group (NASDAQ: CME)
  5. Edgewell Personal Care (NYSE: EPC)
This would be a horror show if Biden wins thus the focus on Gold and Market Volatility with CME and a low cost personal products staples company EPC...

If there is a Republican Senate, Biden would probably govern as a centrist.

But if there is a Democratic Senate, he’d come under pressure to do more radical things like pack the Supreme Court and end the Electoral College. And my own view of Biden’s career arc is that he generally follows where the core of his party is heading. These two things — I’ll call them political “nuclear options” — would have unfathomable consequences for investors when compared to widely-expected things, like another big stimulus plan, and high future deficits.

This is not a partisan statement; it’s my opinion as an analyst who’s observed monetary systems, investor behavior, and corporate behavior for 20 years: The political nuclear options of packing the Supreme Court and ending the Electoral College would immediately end the U.S. dollar’s role as the world’s reserve currency. It would transform the U.S. from a representative republic to a direct democracy, with one-party control of government, and no more Constitutional checks and balances. It would turn the U.S. dollar into an emerging market currency. The U.S. economy would be mired in stagflation, with private sector investment collapsing and recurring waves of newly printed cash flooding the economy through the numerous channels of federal spending.

Here’s why the nature of the dollar would be transformed: A permanently politicized one-party-controlled Supreme Court would overturn the legal precedents that protect private property. Contract law could be re-written on a whim by the judicial branch. And an end to the Electoral College would lead to permanent one-party rule.

A combination of the two would redefine what a U.S. dollar means, destroy confidence that a stock represents a very legally-secure claim on its future earnings, and would turn the dollar more fully into an instrument of state policy, rather than a claim on private property.

Foreign creditors would have no reason why they should continue to hold U.S. dollar deposits or U.S. Treasury securities as stores of value. Flights from dollar assets to gold, stable foreign currencies, and tangible assets could be so overwhelming that it would make any recent bubbles pale in comparison.

Stocks with big upside from 2020 to 2024 no matter who is president (Copper and Gold)
  1. Freeport-McMoRan (NYSE: FCX)
  2. Kirkland Lake Gold (NYSE: KL)
  3. Newmont Corp. (NYSE: NEM)
  4. Alamos Gold (NYSE: AGI)
  5. U.S. Global Investors (NASDAQ: GROW)
Kirkland Lake shares trade at just 12 times the consensus forward earnings estimate. That’s a low multiple, even though Kirkland Lake has superior assets located in very mining-friendly jurisdictions. Moreover, it has a currency benefit from producing gold in mines that have operating costs denominated in Canadian dollars and Australian dollars. We think fair value for Kirkland is well into the $80s, and that the stock could hit this price by mid-2021. In the years ahead, it could rise several-fold from its current price as its highly profitable mines generate sharply rising free cash flows in a rising gold price environment.

ACTION TO TAKE: Buy Kirkland Lake Gold (NYSE: KL) up to $58 per share.

In recent years, we’ve recommended shares of U.S. Global Investors (NASDAQ: GROW) on our quarterly briefing calls for Lifetime members of Strategic Intelligence.

U.S. Global is a money management firm specializing in precious metals and natural resources. It earns management fees on $1.7 billion worth of mutual funds and ETFs.

Owning GROW is essentially a way to own a long-dated call option on gold and other natural resources like copper, without having to pay a premium for that option. That’s because the company’s fee can grow two ways: from a rise in stock prices and cash inflows from new clients. When both are rising, GROW’s revenues and earnings can rise very quickly.

With minimal risk, GROW offers the type of return you can get in a stock option. It has potential to rise ten-fold in the decade ahead, in a repeat of its performance in the mid-2000s. The firm’s real advantage is that it’s one of only a handful of institutional-grade, active managers of gold stock portfolios. Investor interest in gold stocks is still a tiny fraction of what it could become in the years ahead. Large institutions and individuals looking for actively managed portfolios of gold stocks in the years ahead will invest with U.S. Global.

ACTION TO TAKE: Buy U.S. Global Investors (NASDAQ: GROW) up to $3 per share.


Vote Trump - I stand by my analysis...
 
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Deepdiver

Crow
Gold Member
Free PDF reports... Yes I already downloaded and scanned with bitdefender...


Source video:
 

NoMoreTO

Ostrich
The DOW is down nearly 850 points. Certain parties trying to crash the market to distract from Biden's troubles before the election???

I'm largely out over the election. I hold a little silver in an ETF and a gold miner.

Presidential elections aren't usually good for the Stock Market, usually things would have gone down by now. Lots of Risk for November 3rd.
 
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