Stock Market thread

tothepoint

Woodpecker
So ABNB is at $150 out of the gate...I am waiting to see what happens during the next 3 days.
Don't be put off by the valuation. I heard some people saying it's worth more than several hotel chains combined. True but hotels are not the real competition here.
ABNB covers all market segments: from broke students and backpackers to families and high rollers. I never stepped into a Hilton but used AirBnB plenty of times for both personal as well as business travel.
Although Western Europe and North America is pushing back against short term rentals there is still room for growth in EE, Asia and South America. The other issue is availability, there are still very few flats that allow instant booking, once they sort it out and make the process smoother their bottom line will improve, even in restricted markets. I would say this is where Booking.com has an edge.

Meanwhile MGI under $6 starts to look attractive. I am in at $5.98. Can go a bit lower due to selling pressure from Ripple but once this is done it should go back up.
 
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Meraki

Sparrow
I waited all day for ABNB and as soon as I saw the hype, backed out. That's just such an insane valuation. There is so much greed in the market right now. You can tell it's people piling in wanting fast money, big banks buying stuff up, hyping IPOs - everyone is trying to stash away as many acorns as they can before the great reset. Opens at $145 when everyone was expecting $68... in 5 minutes hits 165/sh then just churns around 144... no power hour, no nothing. Man, would be great to be an employee at one of these companies with some stock options.

MGI MARA RIOT are all "traders stocks" - used to make good money on those intraday, but also have been burned hard on MARA. Good moves on low floats tho that's for sure. I have a "safer" speculation stock I've been trading for a while, but I don't want to list it here just yet or give unsolicited advice, without knowing the risk tolerance of others.

What's everyone think overall prediction for the SPY? If it pulls back to 355, I may consider selling all my bluechip boring stuff. Got lucky auto-depositing into a few funds at great prices close to the lockdown low.. Up about +50% on the year. Just can't see how this market continues, based on fake money with so many people just priced out of even participating in it.
 

Meraki

Sparrow
@Pointer When did you get into MGI - yesterday low or in November? I thought sub $6 looks good on the 15min & daily chart, but when you zoom out to the weekly chart YTD it looks like between 4.70 - 5.50 is a good support range and it still has a ways to relax into the MA. There's def potential here, I just get a bit freaked out coming in so late to the move on these sort of stocks. Early Oct was the "safer" entry. I always ask myself - if I was already in the trade, what would I be doing right now? On this chart I can't tell if my answer would be take profits, or add on the pullback.

Edit: forgot to add - if you look at MGI, MARA, RIOT all at the same time, they all have identical setups. Zoom out on the 5yr and this reminds me of when I was very actively trading in 2017. There is big money to be made right now on these, but also, the moves will come FAST with big changes on the bid/ask. Just a warning to anyone reading who might dive in. Price history looks like this is a big repeat of previous years action, if it plays out to the upside a bit longer.
 

BB1

Robin
RE: 2017 Stock Market thread

3 outstanding 'Software as a Service' companies announced earnings yesterday - Zscaler (ZS), MongoDB (MDB), and Okta (OKTA). All of these companies are growing like a weed.

Zscaler stock jumped 23% today!

I beleive MongoDB is the pick of the bunch. Developers love MongoDB - they have downloaded more than 30 million copies of the company's free database since 2009, and over 10 million copies in the last 12 months alone.

Mongo is disrupting traditional databases like Oracle, so the growth potential is massive if they are successful.

From their earnings :

"Over 6,600 Customers at April 30, 2018, up 83% Year-over-Year

MongoDB Atlas Revenue 14% of Total Q1 Revenue, up over 400% Year-over-Year

Revenue: Total revenue was $48.2 million, an increase of 49% year-over-year. Subscription revenue was $44.6 million, an increase of 53% year-over-year, and services revenue was $3.7 million, an increase of 14% year-over-year."
Just reviewing MongoDB (MDB) performance since I posted this on 8 June 2018 - MDB stock is now up 514% since then. A good lesson in letting your winners run.
 

tothepoint

Woodpecker
@Pointer When did you get into MGI - yesterday low or in November? I thought sub $6 looks good on the 15min & daily chart, but when you zoom out to the weekly chart YTD it looks like between 4.70 - 5.50 is a good support range and it still has a ways to relax into the MA. There's def potential here, I just get a bit freaked out coming in so late to the move on these sort of stocks. Early Oct was the "safer" entry. I always ask myself - if I was already in the trade, what would I be doing right now? On this chart I can't tell if my answer would be take profits, or add on the pullback.

Edit: forgot to add - if you look at MGI, MARA, RIOT all at the same time, they all have identical setups. Zoom out on the 5yr and this reminds me of when I was very actively trading in 2017. There is big money to be made right now on these, but also, the moves will come FAST with big changes on the bid/ask. Just a warning to anyone reading who might dive in. Price history looks like this is a big repeat of previous years action, if it plays out to the upside a bit longer.

I got in on Thursday, found info somewhere (don't remember the exact spot) that Ripple has almost finished selling around 4 million shares. It dipped even further on Friday as predicted now it's back up. I don't think it will go to 5.5 or under anytime soon but set your stop loss accordingly.
 
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kel

Ostrich
Sorry to have missed a few IPOs. I know it's ritualized day-gambling, so I don't do too much, but big name brands like that I often buy for the quick pop. It's worked well for me in the past.

How do people feel about Palantir? I had a buy set at 9 something but it never got that low after the pop, now it's in the 20s. I'm talking long-term now, not IPO pop as above.
 

Deepdiver

Crow
Gold Member
CME S&P Futures are the Major Institutional Trading market.

S&P Emini Futures Contract Rollover Dates Etc...

Trading hours...
Sunday - Friday 5:00p.m. - 4:00p.m. CT with a trading halt from 3:15p.m. - 3:30p.m. CT; Daily Maintenance period Monday - Thursday 4:00p.m. - 5:00p.m.

Futures Contract Date Codes:
ESZ2020 Dec ESH2021 Mar ESM2021 Jun ESU2021 Sept ESZ2021 Dec

Contract Ends... Rollover to ESH2021 is Dec 17 2021 Thursday...

Trading terminates at 9:30 a.m. ET on the 3rd Friday of the contract month

BTIC trading terminates at 4:00 p.m. ET on the Thursday before the 3rd Friday of contract month

TACO trading terminates at 9:30 a.m. ET on the Thursday before the 3rd Friday of the contract month

We are still trading the ESZ2020 contract in rollover to the March ESH2021 Contract.


I will update a new ESH2021 Chart at the end of this week. Today we tested the thin Wave 5 B top trend channel targeting Dec 31 for the Institutional Top Turn in the range 3755 to 3765 with a Major ABC Correction to 2200 support in Q1/Q2 2022 time frame.

Institutional Portfolio Managers have all locked in EOY gains and sitting on cash waiting to short the ESH2021 Futures when the ABC correction begins.

1608159657613.png
 
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Deepdiver

Crow
Gold Member
$SPX a.k.a. S&P Cash Technical Chart (No Futures Emotion)

Todays true range = 22.70

20 Day Simple Moving Average ATR average true range = 44.94

1608161088329.png

ESZ Futures ATR (Difference includes Traders Emotion)

Todays true range = 24.50

20 Day Simple Moving Average ATR average true range = 53.51 (9 Pt Diff to SPX)

1608161554919.png

ESH21 Mar 21 Futures:

Todays true range = 24.50 same as ESZ20

20 Day Simple Moving Average ATR average true range = 52.86 Slight ATR diff due to rollover dual trading both ESZ20 and ESH21 Futures contracts.

1608161869317.png
 

Deepdiver

Crow
Gold Member
Just spoke to my stealth institutional advisor over Cigars - said they are already laddering in ESH21 Shorts and Major Wave A correction likely to be 21% of S&P Market High then .618 retrace of A for B bounce and then C impulsive to .382 retrace of market High in 2200 Support Range.

He is also shorting WTI as with massive Winter Covid lockdowns Oil Consumption in Q1 will be low.

If you do not feel comfortable shorting then a good time to be in CASH.


###
 
Doesn’t the whole market plus crypto just seem to be on a sugar high? It’s like everybody is making money. The key is to get out before the sentiment changes. The question is whether the Repubs will work with Biden to keep injecting the funny money into the economy.
 

tothepoint

Woodpecker
What nobody mentioned is that the USD today is exactly 10% lower than it was 1 year ago vs the EURO. Something to keep in mind if your bank is not in USD. Another 10% drop is very likely before the end of 2021.
 
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Deepdiver

Crow
Gold Member
The Long View and Big Picture going into 2021/2022...

We have been on an extended 11-year bull run culminating in a 2020 Covid Correction and Fed Sugar High Pump. This Bull is overdue for a nice rest (retracement) no matter if Trump gets a second Term - too many covid lockdowns caused longer-term damage especially to the small business sector that provides 45% of all jobs not to mention Airlines and Hospitality industries.

This bull will be barbequed if the Biden Lefty Looney confiscatory taxes on Heritage America for reparations to the AOC Squadsters happens - so - for that, we have our range of Fibonacci Retracements targets all interesting previous support levels. The S&P Herd trades up and down to 50s and 100s targets so though Fibs are precise the herd is not thus the (Herd) targets in brackets.

The ES1! 11-year weekly chart is approaching the 3760 Top Turn likely around Dec 31, 2021 and then an overdue ABC correction

This is the TradingView 11 Year S&P Futures continuous ES1! Weekly Chart from the 9 March 2009 weekly low of 670 to the Target Top Turn midpoint 3760 of the 3755 to 3765 Range.

Most major market corrections are in the 21%+/- range leg A with Fibonacci Retracements highlighting previous support and resistance levels:

Fib .236 = 3031 (3000) for leg A Q2-21, then leg B +450 .618 of A to 3481 (3500) Q3-21
And then leg C is the longest and most impulsive to the next possible Fib Retracements Q2-22

Fib .382 3560 (3550)

Fib .50 2215 (2200) and then worst case retracement...

Fib .618 Golden Ratio 1850 also a herd-friendly number...

Keep in mind if Trump reelected his Fed and Treasury will do all they can to keep total retrace to the Fib .318 Target - if the Biden CCP loonies blow everything up the .618 Fib retracement is likely if not the .786 retrace to 1300 as crazy as that sounds - Bottom line now is a Good Time to Preserve Gains and Go To CASH and learn how to Short S&P Eminis ESx or Micro Eminis MESx as the profits from shorting clueless Robinhoodies in this overdue ABC correction will be life-changing.

The Purple weekly ATR (20 Week SMA) or Average True Range median (most peaks) are around 80 points - a rule of thumb about the average weekly move in the Weekly S&P Futures up or down.

1608246180108.png
 
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JTA

Pigeon
Good start if you need inspiration to build/reallocate a portfolio:


Post-COVID world recommendations, probably here to stay:


Personally, I would not invest in any COVID-19 vaccine manufacturers/distributors etc., largely for moral reasons.
 

Deepdiver

Crow
Gold Member
Good start if you need inspiration to build/reallocate a portfolio:


Post-COVID world recommendations, probably here to stay:


Personally, I would not invest in any COVID-19 vaccine manufacturers/distributors etc., largely for moral reasons.
I am waiting to see how many comorbidity Veterans the VA knocks off with the dubious mRNA vaccines multiple FDA and CDC documented side effects - till then its hydroxychloroquine and zinc weekly preventatives.
 

Cervantes

Woodpecker
The Long View and Big Picture going into 2021/2022...

We have been on an extended 11-year bull run culminating in a 2020 Covid Correction and Fed Sugar High Pump. This Bull is overdue for a nice rest (retracement) no matter if Trump gets a second Term - too many covid lockdowns caused longer-term damage especially to the small business sector that provides 45% of all jobs not to mention Airlines and Hospitality industries.

This bull will be barbequed if the Biden Lefty Looney confiscatory taxes on Heritage America for reparations to the AOC Squadsters happens - so - for that, we have our range of Fibonacci Retracements targets all interesting previous support levels. The S&P Herd trades up and down to 50s and 100s targets so though Fibs are precise the herd is not thus the (Herd) targets in brackets.

The ES1! 11-year weekly chart is approaching the 3760 Top Turn likely around Dec 31, 2021 and then an overdue ABC correction

This is the TradingView 11 Year S&P Futures continuous ES1! Weekly Chart from the 9 March 2009 weekly low of 670 to the Target Top Turn midpoint 3760 of the 3755 to 3765 Range.

Most major market corrections are in the 21%+/- range leg A with Fibonacci Retracements highlighting previous support and resistance levels:

Fib .236 = 3031 (3000) for leg A Q2-21, then leg B +450 .618 of A to 3481 (3500) Q3-21
And then leg C is the longest and most impulsive to the next possible Fib Retracements Q2-22

Fib .382 3560 (3550)

Fib .50 2215 (2200) and then worst case retracement...

Fib .618 Golden Ratio 1850 also a herd-friendly number...

Keep in mind if Trump reelected his Fed and Treasury will do all they can to keep total retrace to the Fib .318 Target - if the Biden CCP loonies blow everything up the .618 Fib retracement is likely if not the .786 retrace to 1300 as crazy as that sounds - Bottom line now is a Good Time to Preserve Gains and Go To CASH and learn how to Short S&P Eminis ESx or Micro Eminis MESx as the profits from shorting clueless Robinhoodies in this overdue ABC correction will be life-changing.

The Purple weekly ATR (20 Week SMA) or Average True Range median (most peaks) are around 80 points - a rule of thumb about the average weekly move in the Weekly S&P Futures up or down.

View attachment 27759
I disagree. They are just going to keep printing money. The main thing you don't want to be holding is cash.

The stock market will continue to rise in nominal terms. The Dow will be at $60k at this time next year.

So buy anything - land, crypto, gold and even stock.

Another good thing to do, if you are sure you can finance it, is to borrow money. You'll never have to pay that money back. A decade from now that loan will have inflated away into a nominal debt.

Biden/Harris work exclusively for ZOG/globohomo, and so they will make sure to print as much money as necessary to keep the globohomo corporations afloat. Very little of the printed money will go into anything that benefits regular people. There will be no single payer healthcare, no stimulus checks, no increased welfare.
 

kel

Ostrich
Another good thing to do, if you are sure you can finance it, is to borrow money. You'll never have to pay that money back. A decade from now that loan will have inflated away into a nominal debt.

Interesting take, can you say more? I'm very avoidant of debt generally, given that my parents were typical clueless boomers who were happy paying minimums and not really thinking about what that meant.

Presumably you mean relatively low-interest borrowing, like mortgages and... what else is there?

And then put that money in the market, expecting the gains (minus tax) I make on that to outpace what I'm paying in interest?
 

scotian

Peacock
Gold Member
TLDR: I decided to start investing this year and did ok but my lack of understanding the markets and fear of losing money really held me back.

Hey guys, I haven't posted in awhile but was always following this thread as an outside observer and finally got into the markets (other than throwing a few bucks at mutual funds over the years but mostly saying screw it "I got a union pension" (which does well). I had a great year work/money wise last year, as I did this year, I grossed about 150K CDN (around 115K USD) so had a few bucks to play with, which I dumped into my tax sheltered Canadian investment accounts, TFSA/RRSP, similar to the ROTH IRA in the US. This time last year I had about 30K USD to play around with, just sitting there. As per usual I quit my job in November then went to Colombia and blew my brains out for a few months, then returned to Canada in January to work and continued stacking cash, but not investing.

Then Covid happened: I'm a bit ashamed to admit it, but I froze and literally experienced "analysis by paralysis" because I had friends telling me to invest and was reading the news but wasn't confident enough to pull the trigger, I instead read a shit ton of material online about investing but was confused by it all but finally dumped a couple of Gs into a silver ETF. It's done well, up at 47% at one point but I waited and sold half at 30%, the remaining shares are up 22% as of yesterday.

I continued studying the markets and decided that my main strategy will be to invest in ETFs, which I've since done and thanks to RVF member Linux, I started dumping money in VTI which is my biggest hold and is up 15%, which I'm happy with . I've since decided to invest in VXUS for international exposure, and aim to maintain a 80/20 VTI/VXUS split in my ETFs, which makes up about 80% of my investment portfoliio.

I'm keeping about under 10K USD in growth/YOLO stocks and most of these have done well, I wish I had the balls to go bigger on these but I can't, here's what I hold:

MMED: Canadian company making therapeutic psychadelics, basically micro doses of magic mushrooms, it worked for Roosh so why not eh? I'm up 66% as of yesterday, it was up 100% a few days ago, should've sold a few shares!

NCLH: Norwegian Cruise Lines-cruise people love cruises and once the vaccine is out, those guys will be on those ships again, right? Bought at $22, went up to $27, now it's back to $24 or so

AMD: Some type of tech stock, I dunno, I bought $1000 because my Chinese buddy's nerdy son recommended it over lunch, that was in August so it hasn't moved much since but is up 10% or so. Trump just banned a few Chink stocks so maybe it'll go up more?

CNQ/ENB: Canadian oil, invest in what you know eh? Biden is cracking on the fracking which is good news for Canuck oil! I may have to buy a lifted F-350 and throw a pair of truck nuts on it. Hopefully they nuke Iran so oil reaches $100 again then I'll be buying all kinds of dumb shit again.

ABCl: I got drunk and missed about on the Airbnb IPO, then saw it went up to $150 so said eff that but still had an IPO boner so two days later bought this biomed IPO because it's Canadian and I have that Canuck inferiority complex so decided I had to support local, plus Peter Thiel is on the board of directors, how could I go wrong? Well I should've waited, down 12%, time to buy more? No wonder Warren Buffet said never to buy IPOs.

Tesla: My last post on here, I asked "anyone buying Tesla after the split?" No one responded, well I did, bought ten at $400-whatever it was, was stressed cuz it was red for a couple of months. The day it went green, I sold half (regrettably), then last week I sold the other 5 and pocketed a few hundy. This was probably really dumb but I'm uneasy about tech, I just don't understand how these comapnies are so highly valued?

Anyway, I'm up double digits % wise in my first year of active investing which is nothing to brag about since any idiot could've thrown a dart at a board and made better gains this year, as long as you're not losing money then I guess you're winning at this racket. I'm still sitting with quite a bit of cash, about 20% but plan on holding onto the ETFs and blue chips and shifting the YOLOs/shroom boom stocks into the safer bets, if I lose 5K on those, not a worry.

Honestly I think I'm more suited to the passive investing in index funds "set it and forget" long term plan than active trading, I find waking up and checking the markets and worry about temporary dips and whether I should buy to be stressful and I'm not knowledgeable enough nor will I ever be to beat the markets. I have better things to do, like crush this brewski in front of me. Cheers bros!
 
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tothepoint

Woodpecker
I think a correction is necessary because I don't understand why airlines and other travel related stocks have exploded so much in November and December. At the end of October they were going back down where they belong after the irrational enthusiasm experienced since March.
Take Air Canada for example, they went bankrupt once in the past and now heading for a second one yet their stock jumped from $15 to $24 in 6 weeks. Who buys this stuff ?

TSLA was the biggest troll of 2020. I don't think anybody was expecting this one to go up so much. I didn't put any money in it and I'm not about to start but good job to those who did.
 
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