Stock Market thread

Cervantes

Woodpecker
Interesting take, can you say more? I'm very avoidant of debt generally, given that my parents were typical clueless boomers who were happy paying minimums and not really thinking about what that meant.

Presumably you mean relatively low-interest borrowing, like mortgages and... what else is there?

And then put that money in the market, expecting the gains (minus tax) I make on that to outpace what I'm paying in interest?
Yes- I mean taking out loans at todays record low interest and using the money to buy something that has stable long term value - like real estate. Or use the money to finance a business.

It is very dumb to finance credit card purchases on consumables at crazy high rates.

If you are young and have few assets there is almost no risk to taking on large (non-student) debts. In the worst case you declare bankruptcy and technically 7 years later the bankruptcy is forgotten, but in practice more like 5 years before you have credit again.

Taking out a mortgage on something useful is far smarter than taking on debt for a useless degree. Most degrees are 100% useless and non-marketable and the debt is non-dischargeable. So college debt for most people is the dumbest possible financial strategy. (a medical or engineering degree might make sense)
 

tothepoint

Woodpecker
Those of you who bought Intel at 45 might want to reconsider holding next year, bad news coming up:


Go for AMD instead. Every time Intel drops, AMD goes up :)
 

Deepdiver

Crow
Gold Member
Weekly ES1! 11 Year Wave Maths:

Wave 1 Low 670 - 9 Mar 09, 1333 - 670 = 663

Wave 1 High 1333 - 28 Mar 11

Wave 2 Low 1068 - 3 Oct 11, 1333 - 1068 = 265

Wave 3 High 3397 - 17 Feb 20, 3397 - 1068 = 2329
Wave 3 divided by Wave 1 = 2329/663 = 3.512 (approx 3.5X)

Wave 4 Low 2174 - 23 Mar 20 (Fast Rule of Alternation to Wave 2),
3397 - 2174 = 1223

Wave 5 High 3723 Week of 14 Dec 21, 3723 - 2174 = 1549
Wave 5 divided by Wave 1 = 1549/663 = 2.33

Wave 5 Target 3765 - Wave 4 Low 2174 = 1591
1591 divided by Wave 1 663 = 1591/663 = 2.39 the 2.38 Fib Extension!

So 11 Year ES1! Target of 3765+/- 9 "Range of the Number" looks like the Maths Top Turning High:

1608417506806.png
 

Deepdiver

Crow
Gold Member
I disagree. They are just going to keep printing money. The main thing you don't want to be holding is cash.

The stock market will continue to rise in nominal terms. The Dow will be at $60k at this time next year.

So buy anything - land, crypto, gold and even stock.

Another good thing to do, if you are sure you can finance it, is to borrow money. You'll never have to pay that money back. A decade from now that loan will have inflated away into a nominal debt.

Biden/Harris work exclusively for ZOG/globohomo, and so they will make sure to print as much money as necessary to keep the globohomo corporations afloat. Very little of the printed money will go into anything that benefits regular people. There will be no single payer healthcare, no stimulus checks, no increased welfare.

$60K Dow in one year??? - You must have some great medicinal Bud shops where you live.

I just shared insights from my stealth advisor who runs a $150M Trading Book and 6 portfolios for a multi trillion institution... When experience and wisdom speaks do you even listen. They are already laddering in shorts, ESH2021 SHORTS, WTI Crude SHORTS, etc... the Covid Economic Destruction is still being mitigated by gov support programs... when the true negative effects happen it will not be pretty.

A prudent person will be in cash during this 11 Year Bull Market TOP. Trees do not grow to heaven and Big Bull markets tend to go Bearish more quickly than you can DTC till its end. Don't want to see extreme bullishness punished by a strong dose of reality.

If the Biden/Harris CCP Confiscatory Taxation schemes come to pass the earnings of the NASDAQ, DOW and S&P as well as the Russell 2,000 will be gutted. Zombie Company bankruptcies will be significant. When the real impact of the end of Eviction and Foreclosure Moratoriums and the lack of demand for Cubicle Farms due to remote work which is the new paradigm hits the real economy - good luck on the $60K Dow along with all the other Robinhood longs.

Forewarned is FOREARMED.

Right now Cash is King and the Smart Money is in SHORT positions.

That said Merry Christmas and a Happy and Prosperous New Year to all.
 

aynrus

Kingfisher
$60K Dow in one year??? - You must have some great medicinal Bud shops where you live.

I just shared insights from my stealth advisor who runs a $150M Trading Book and 6 portfolios for a multi trillion institution... When experience and wisdom speaks do you even listen. They are already laddering in shorts, ESH2021 SHORTS, WTI Crude SHORTS, etc... the Covid Economic Destruction is still being mitigated by gov support programs... when the true negative effects happen it will not be pretty.

A prudent person will be in cash during this 11 Year Bull Market TOP. Trees do not grow to heaven and Big Bull markets tend to go Bearish more quickly than you can DTC till its end. Don't want to see extreme bullishness punished by a strong dose of reality.

If the Biden/Harris CCP Confiscatory Taxation schemes come to pass the earnings of the NASDAQ, DOW and S&P as well as the Russell 2,000 will be gutted. Zombie Company bankruptcies will be significant. When the real impact of the end of Eviction and Foreclosure Moratoriums and the lack of demand for Cubicle Farms due to remote work which is the new paradigm hits the real economy - good luck on the $60K Dow along with all the other Robinhood longs.

Forewarned is FOREARMED.

Right now Cash is King and the Smart Money is in SHORT positions.

That said Merry Christmas and a Happy and Prosperous New Year to all.
Being in cash? No. Cash is devaluing rapidly right now. All the CPI numbers are dirty lies, nothing compared to real inflation that's unraveling.
Inflation of the cost of things average Joe needs or will need, not the abstract stuff. Cash...can just set a pile on fire and watch part of it burn, the same effect, might at least have some fun with the latter.
I agree with the poster you responded to - they will be printing and printing and propping up that Ponzi scheme of asset bubble, the whole system is invested in it, 401Ks savings, they have to keep propping it to avoid societal collapse.
Shorts for a short-term...longer term - long, to beat inflation, at least.
Your advisor is speaking of short-term play, sounds like they're waiting for the downturn to buy in.
Foreclosures....will happily migrate into the hands of now-remote workers, ready to pour their city money in that RE. There's very real shortage of housing right now and a lot more people who need it than available homes (especially since a few own vacation homes and rentals).
 

aynrus

Kingfisher
Wait until you find out they don't print money.

Wishful thinking.
Not happening. Contrarian dream isn't materializing. Those in cash this year took massive loss...while they...printed.
For the record, I had lived through hyperinflation and 2 government defaults...know what it is, what assets survive it.
In fact, I had worked for Central Bank at that time.
They'll print the money. If anyone is in cash, they must have lots of spare change... it's rapidly devaluing daily. Unless they're keeping it to buy assets soon, that toilet paper.
 
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aynrus

Kingfisher
I think a correction is necessary because I don't understand why airlines and other travel related stocks have exploded so much in November and December. At the end of October they were going back down where they belong after the irrational enthusiasm experienced since March.
Take Air Canada for example, they went bankrupt once in the past and now heading for a second one yet their stock jumped from $15 to $24 in 6 weeks. Who buys this stuff ?
Vaccines...
Next stimulus is coming. They'd rather let every Joe die slow death from starvation on the street than let the airlines really sink, I have no doubt about that and these will be propped up with more fake de-valuing money.
Anyway, in the future, in the worst case, with vaccine passports and all, they can make less seats/more space, jack up the price astronimically and it will be a win. No need for average Joe anymore.
 

Deepdiver

Crow
Gold Member
Shadows Stats real inflation is 5.5%... Assume you go to cash instead of shorting for a year and take a 5.5% hit versus a 38% to 62% market correction and can then buy back your favorite stocks at a blue light special sale. Learning how to short futures is quite profitable. Or go long on Robinhood while the smart money profits on all the overexuberant longs.
 

M'bare

Woodpecker
Gold Member
The Long View and Big Picture going into 2021/2022...

We have been on an extended 11-year bull run culminating in a 2020 Covid Correction and Fed Sugar High Pump. This Bull is overdue for a nice rest (retracement) no matter if Trump gets a second Term - too many covid lockdowns caused longer-term damage especially to the small business sector that provides 45% of all jobs not to mention Airlines and Hospitality industries.

This bull will be barbequed if the Biden Lefty Looney confiscatory taxes on Heritage America for reparations to the AOC Squadsters happens - so - for that, we have our range of Fibonacci Retracements targets all interesting previous support levels. The S&P Herd trades up and down to 50s and 100s targets so though Fibs are precise the herd is not thus the (Herd) targets in brackets.

The ES1! 11-year weekly chart is approaching the 3760 Top Turn likely around Dec 31, 2021 and then an overdue ABC correction

This is the TradingView 11 Year S&P Futures continuous ES1! Weekly Chart from the 9 March 2009 weekly low of 670 to the Target Top Turn midpoint 3760 of the 3755 to 3765 Range.

Most major market corrections are in the 21%+/- range leg A with Fibonacci Retracements highlighting previous support and resistance levels:

Fib .236 = 3031 (3000) for leg A Q2-21, then leg B +450 .618 of A to 3481 (3500) Q3-21
And then leg C is the longest and most impulsive to the next possible Fib Retracements Q2-22

Fib .382 3560 (3550)

Fib .50 2215 (2200) and then worst case retracement...

Fib .618 Golden Ratio 1850 also a herd-friendly number...

Keep in mind if Trump reelected his Fed and Treasury will do all they can to keep total retrace to the Fib .318 Target - if the Biden CCP loonies blow everything up the .618 Fib retracement is likely if not the .786 retrace to 1300 as crazy as that sounds - Bottom line now is a Good Time to Preserve Gains and Go To CASH and learn how to Short S&P Eminis ESx or Micro Eminis MESx as the profits from shorting clueless Robinhoodies in this overdue ABC correction will be life-changing.

The Purple weekly ATR (20 Week SMA) or Average True Range median (most peaks) are around 80 points - a rule of thumb about the average weekly move in the Weekly S&P Futures up or down.

View attachment 27759


Damn. Reading some of your alls responses in this thread makes me realize how painfully behind the curve I am on all of this stuff.

Growing up I never learned about anything marketwise. My parents were basically just, "work hard and save."

After university I was commissioned as an officer -- did 9 years and got out. (nursing field) During my time and afterwards I just never put anytime unfortunately into markets, etc. I do have a TSP account, right now 90% in the G fund and 10% in the C fund.

Last year just to get a little into the market I opened an eTrade account and have regular stock in 6 companies. I also have some bitcoin.

I've been told not to mess with options unless you know what you're doing.

My question is, can you break down in simple terms what you'd do in my shoes? I have some cash in the bank -- I'd be willing to put 5k, maybe upwards of 10k into something. What do you think would be best strategy for someone with my knowledge, and what platform? eTrade still?

Would it be better to put it in a mutual fund, or let someone else manage my stocks?



Appreciate your alls time.
 
Wishful thinking.
Not happening. Contrarian dream isn't materializing. Those in cash this year took massive loss...while they...printed.
For the record, I had lived through hyperinflation and 2 government defaults...know what it is, what assets survive it.
In fact, I had worked for Central Bank at that time.
They'll print the money. If anyone is in cash, they must have lots of spare change... it's rapidly devaluing daily. Unless they're keeping it to buy assets soon, that toilet paper.

What does that even mean in response to what I said, wishful thinking? Do you have anything of substance to add?
 
My question is, can you break down in simple terms what you'd do in my shoes? I have some cash in the bank -- I'd be willing to put 5k, maybe upwards of 10k into something. What do you think would be best strategy for someone with my knowledge, and what platform? eTrade still?

Would it be better to put it in a mutual fund, or let someone else manage my stocks?

Why are young men so eager to buy stocks?

Save your cash. Pay down your debt. Get a good, cheap home. Then come back and ask again.

If you're dead set on risking it in the stock market during a super risky time, start with exactly what you've done with some meme stocks. Stay away from options unless you're going to do this regularly and really don't mind losing money for awhile.
 

Cervantes

Woodpecker
Trees do not grow to heaven and Big Bull markets tend to go Bearish more quickly than you can DTC till its end. Don't want to see extreme bullishness punished by a strong dose of reality.
Stock markets can actually "grow to heaven" in fiat terms - and often do. Check out the stupendous returns of the Zimbabwe stock market:
http%3A%2F%2Fftalphaville.ft.com%2Ffiles%2F2008%2F06%2F1441.jpg


I don't know everything about what will happen with the economy in 2021 but there are two things I feel very confident in: the creation of new dollars is going to continue to accelerate, and the percentage of our economy controlled by the largest corporations will increase.

There are theoretical deflationary collapse scenarios - but they involve the central bank being unwilling to create enough money.
 

Deepdiver

Crow
Gold Member
Damn. Reading some of your alls responses in this thread makes me realize how painfully behind the curve I am on all of this stuff.

Growing up I never learned about anything marketwise. My parents were basically just, "work hard and save."

After university I was commissioned as an officer -- did 9 years and got out. (nursing field) During my time and afterwards I just never put anytime unfortunately into markets, etc. I do have a TSP account, right now 90% in the G fund and 10% in the C fund.

Last year just to get a little into the market I opened an eTrade account and have regular stock in 6 companies. I also have some bitcoin.

I've been told not to mess with options unless you know what you're doing.

My question is, can you break down in simple terms what you'd do in my shoes? I have some cash in the bank -- I'd be willing to put 5k, maybe upwards of 10k into something. What do you think would be best strategy for someone with my knowledge, and what platform? eTrade still?

Would it be better to put it in a mutual fund, or let someone else manage my stocks?



Appreciate your alls time.
MB... In deep respect for your service especially for your dedication to caring for warriors when they need patching up I will endeavor to help you learn to live a rich life. So PM me with a secure protonmail account. Respectfully, D2
 

Robert High Hawk

Kingfisher
Shadows Stats real inflation is 5.5%... Assume you go to cash instead of shorting for a year and take a 5.5% hit versus a 38% to 62% market correction and can then buy back your favorite stocks at a blue light special sale. Learning how to short futures is quite profitable. Or go long on Robinhood while the smart money profits on all the overexuberant longs.

Would you consider gold and bitcoin to be good proxies for cash? Bitcoin is going up massively just like many stocks are right now. Is there a rough estimate for when you see this correction coming?

To be clear on my tone here, genuinely curious, not asking in a doubtful way.
 

Deepdiver

Crow
Gold Member
Would you consider gold and bitcoin to be good proxies for cash? Bitcoin is going up massively just like many stocks are right now. Is there a rough estimate for when you see this correction coming?

To be clear on my tone here, genuinely curious, not asking in a doubtful way.
R2H I love BTC and blockchain techs so I follow most of the top 100 Crypto projects and even new projects to see which are most innovative and tech astute. Problem right now with BTC we have broken into new territory where fibonacci extensions are now the only predictor of future resistance levels and we are in new territory on our IEEE SW specs for BTC trading AI analytics... What we know is the last time BTC spiked to its previous ATH it corrected 85% could it happen again? And from which Fib extension?

I have some silver, gold and ammo mostly for barter if fiat collapses... Silver and gold have been highly manipulated via futures contracts until large investors started demanding contract physical delivery due to fiat crash concerns.

Problem with physical gold and silver is it's a security risk and can make you a target for b&e or assault robberies... Especially if using it for purchases instead of cash. Silver has gone from $11 to $29 back to $24 per oz this past year or so gold has gyrated a bit as well...

For a cash proxy you can use against your Fidelity or Etrade Visa Card without raising thieves attention is Sprott Physical Gold and Silver a Canadian firm that holds physical metal so you do not have to their shares are as good as gold so they say... I also like safe producing miners like Kirkland Lake Gold with large producing mines in safe locales in OZ and CA vs dodgy SA and African countries...

I really like Mike Maloney's Gold Silver Company as they will sell you gold and silver for BTC and hold it in Pinkerton vaults iirc

So all cash proxies have issues but keep some cash for a couple months of expenses as it takes a week to settle a trade and see cash in your Etrade, Fidelity or BoA- ML accounts. HTH. Merry Christmas and have a great New Year!

 
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Deepdiver

Crow
Gold Member
Would you consider gold and bitcoin to be good proxies for cash? Bitcoin is going up massively just like many stocks are right now. Is there a rough estimate for when you see this correction coming?

To be clear on my tone here, genuinely curious, not asking in a doubtful way.
OBTW the institutions are laddering into short positions now as the markets top literally at EOY end of Dec 2021 or early Jan... Of course DJT crossing the rubicon could result in a stampede to quality as well.
 

aynrus

Kingfisher
What does that even mean in response to what I said, wishful thinking? Do you have anything of substance to add?
Yes. My response was of more substance than your sarcastic comment about them "stopping printing"
I responded that it isn't happening and added some detail.
Your original post was, quote: "Wait until you find out they don't print money"
(in response to someone who made a very detailed post where they said a lot of money are being printed and it's bad to be in cash, the post which wasn't even directed at you)
- very "substantial" response. Nothing but unsubstantiated sarcasm, actually.
A lot of money had been created and emissions continue at increased rate on average, there's nothing that supports any more than negligible probability of "wait until you find out they don't print money".
 
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