Stock Market thread

Yes. My response was of more substance than your sarcastic comment about them "stopping printing"
I responded that it isn't happening and added some detail.
Your original post was, quote: "Wait until you find out they don't print money"
(in response to someone who made a very detailed post where they said a lot of money are being printed and it's bad to be in cash, the post which wasn't even directed at you)
- very "substantial" response. Nothing but unsubstantiated sarcasm, actually.
A lot of money had been created and emissions continue at increased rate on average, there's nothing that supports any more than negligible probability of "wait until you find out they don't print money".

Say it with me, bro: DIGITAL DOLLARS. A FLOOD OF MONEY SO THICK YOU CAN SWIM IN IT LIKE SCROOOOOOGE MCDUCK.

Tell me, do those of you screaming about inflation since 2007 ever get sick of being proven wrong year after year? What do you believe the current monetary crisis is about?

Some light reading: https://www.thestreet.com/economoni...ed-by-its-followers-but-scorned-by-economists
 

aynrus

Pelican
Say it with me, bro: DIGITAL DOLLARS. A FLOOD OF MONEY SO THICK YOU CAN SWIM IN IT LIKE SCROOOOOOGE MCDUCK.

Tell me, do those of you screaming about inflation since 2007 ever get sick of being proven wrong year after year? What do you believe the current monetary crisis is about?

Some light reading: https://www.thestreet.com/economoni...ed-by-its-followers-but-scorned-by-economists
"Those of you screaming about inflation since 2007"
--man, you're confusing me with someone else... (not sure whom you refer to ??)

And how do "they" (not "us", because I'm certainly not "screaming about inflation since 2007) get proven wrong?
They were proven 100% and right again his hear.
Inflation had been terrible since last recession. I live in dollar zone/US, so I'm speaking of that.
Real estate 22% up just in 2020 (single family homes, condos up too but not that much). Anyone who was in cash start of 2020 was ripped off, because the prices jumped (as demand skyrocketed while money de-valued after they decided to print 20% of US money supply in one move). Anyone who sold out as assets plunged to go into cash....again, ripped off.
Those who bought into the dip made a killing abut even those who held did OK, at least some sectors matched and outperformed actual inflation.
If talk about non-inflation adjusted:
tech stocks - great performance, S&P - up, BTC - great perforamnce, Gold - great
Real inflation has nothing to do with published official figures, CPI, btw, I don't think need to explain this.
Cash had been rapidly de-valuing in 2020, any one who uses it to buy all kinds of things they actually need, like a house or food, had noticed that.
(and by no means I approve just buying assets and passively waiting for years, one has to watch out for what's happening and diversify)

The game is rigged. Stock market reflects no real value. Huge number of people and organizations are invested in stock market.
401Ks, well-to-dos, various funds, etc.....If they allowed that Ponzi to collapse, the whole society would have gone to dust due to pensions/savings on one hand, on the other hand the rich do not want to lose in the game and want to preserve their money/protect them from inflation.
S&P litearally had been following Fed's emissions during recent years.
They crush things when they want to buy-in, it's dump-and-pump scheme, also.
They'll keep pumping that Ponzi scheme for a quite while, clearly, and propping it up using rates, printing, even algo trading shenaningans, etc.

You guys can wait for magical live-saving de-flation to put stolen value back into that cash...while one should be thinking about real hyperinflation risk. They will not stop printing because they go nowhere to do, and they have to service existing enormous debt through their printing as well.
And I have no illusions about the real "value" of any of these assets (except real estate with land, may be gold and well, ammo), but these assets are tracking the printer and there're no signs that this somehow would drastically change in the near future.
 
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Deepdiver

Crow
Gold Member
More Top Turning indicators...


The longest consecutive data source of trailing P/E data available to me stretches back to 1954, which is why these graphs all begin with that date. Everyone likes to use their own price-to-earnings measure. It can be trailing, forward, with varying time horizons, interest-rate adjusted, operating-focused, and with and without extraordinary items, among many different flavors. What matters most here is that it is a time consistent source. For the purposes of this article, graphed below is the S&P 500 index level divided by trailing twelve month earnings per share before extraordinary items. The long-run average of this measure is about 16.8x, and the ratio currently stands at 28.9x, roughly 72% higher than the long-run average.

1608581071854.png
 

Deepdiver

Crow
Gold Member
Interesting Jim Rickards comment in the latest Strategic Intelligence email:

There is simply no need to close restaurants, bars, salons, boutiques and other small businesses, and there’s no medical benefit from it. The evidence shows that waves of coronavirus last about eight-to-ten weeks in each locality where they arise. The caseload increase peaks after about four weeks and fades from there, albeit from a high level. Lockdowns do nothing to change this dynamic. So, why do politicians push lockdowns? The reason is they don’t know what they’re doing but have to be seen to be doing something, so they push the lockdown button to appear decisive. Lockdowns don’t stop the virus but they do stop the economy in its tracks. A recession in the first quarter of 2021 seems a near certainty as a result of this political blindness. The stock market has not yet adjusted to that reality. The adjustment is coming soon.
 

oilbreh

Woodpecker
"Those of you screaming about inflation since 2007"
--man, you're confusing me with someone else... (not sure whom you refer to ??)

And how do "they" (not "us", because I'm certainly not "screaming about inflation since 2007) get proven wrong?
They were proven 100% and right again his hear.
Inflation had been terrible since last recession. I live in dollar zone/US, so I'm speaking of that.
Real estate 22% up just in 2020 (single family homes, condos up too but not that much). Anyone who was in cash start of 2020 was ripped off, because the prices jumped (as demand skyrocketed while money de-valued after they decided to print 20% of US money supply in one move). Anyone who sold out as assets plunged to go into cash....again, ripped off.
Those who bought into the dip made a killing abut even those who held did OK, at least some sectors matched and outperformed actual inflation.
If talk about non-inflation adjusted:
tech stocks - great performance, S&P - up, BTC - great perforamnce, Gold - great
Real inflation has nothing to do with published official figures, CPI, btw, I don't think need to explain this.
Cash had been rapidly de-valuing in 2020, any one who uses it to buy all kinds of things they actually need, like a house or food, had noticed that.
(and by no means I approve just buying assets and passively waiting for years, one has to watch out for what's happening and diversify)

The game is rigged. Stock market reflects no real value. Huge number of people and organizations are invested in stock market.
401Ks, well-to-dos, various funds, etc.....If they allowed that Ponzi to collapse, the whole society would have gone to dust due to pensions/savings on one hand, on the other hand the rich do not want to lose in the game and want to preserve their money/protect them from inflation.
S&P litearally had been following Fed's emissions during recent years.
They crush things when they want to buy-in, it's dump-and-pump scheme, also.
They'll keep pumping that Ponzi scheme for a quite while, clearly, and propping it up using rates, printing, even algo trading shenaningans, etc.

You guys can wait for magical live-saving de-flation to put stolen value back into that cash...while one should be thinking about real hyperinflation risk. They will not stop printing because they go nowhere to do, and they have to service existing enormous debt through their printing as well.
And I have no illusions about the real "value" of any of these assets (except real estate with land, may be gold and well, ammo), but these assets are tracking the printer and there're no signs that this somehow would drastically change in the near future.
Agreed I am getting rather tired of all the pundits with the deflation argument. Things will get a lot more volatile and different sectors will be rotating not all going in the same direction. All the pundits also admit we will eventually inflate and it's the equivalent of trying to catch a falling knife on the initial deflation. Why bother trying to time it. System wasn't really designed to go to 0 rates so betting on a temporal phase of someone kicking a can isn't wise.
 
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aynrus

Pelican
Oh and regarding those "who kept screaming about inflation since 2007"
One can't deny huge inflation and enormous dollar emissions since 2007 - and assets' prices reflect this (they call it asset bubble...but well, this is inflation of dollar, also, a real one, not not the CPI stuff).

Not inflation-adjusted:
2007 around peak S&P: $1500, now S&P: $3600+
2007 GLD: $65, now $160+
2007 peak real estate, average US home value: 216K, now: 278K

If someone kept cash at most banks - they'd have lost a lot of it, de-valued.
If they kept it invested in very liquid assets, CDs, etc or a well-paying savings interest account - say, at roughly 2% rate for these 13 years (rates were low for most of that time but there was still a boost from the original high rates around 2007 and a later rate bump, while now the rates are to become negative and probably for a long time), they got very modest increase/very limited protection from real inflation.
Most of these assets are either tracking or exceeding the printer.
If you run the numbers on long periods, decades, you'll see similar tracking (the reason they don't feel too squirmish about tieing 401Ks with stocks, as it a long term game).
They call some of it Powell put or Bernanke put, but it's older than those figures.
But keep believing in stopped printer...not happening, they have nowhere else to go.
 
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Deepdiver

Crow
Gold Member
Remember whenever you use a free service YOU are the profit center...

 

Cervantes

Woodpecker
More Top Turning indicators...


The longest consecutive data source of trailing P/E data available to me stretches back to 1954, which is why these graphs all begin with that date. Everyone likes to use their own price-to-earnings measure. It can be trailing, forward, with varying time horizons, interest-rate adjusted, operating-focused, and with and without extraordinary items, among many different flavors. What matters most here is that it is a time consistent source. For the purposes of this article, graphed below is the S&P 500 index level divided by trailing twelve month earnings per share before extraordinary items. The long-run average of this measure is about 16.8x, and the ratio currently stands at 28.9x, roughly 72% higher than the long-run average.

View attachment 27839
The point of tracking price to earnings ratio is that in theory the stock earns back for the investor the initial investment in 20 or so years.

These ratios can only be compared over time when the inflation rate is about the same. Suppose you invested $100 in a company share earning $5 per year with no inflation - then 20 years later you would have $100 in earnings plus your original share of stock. Suppose you have inflation which is 10% per year, and that company's constant performance of $5 of value in depreciating currency will generate ~$300 over those 20 years. Because of inflation you'd get your $100 back in about 10 years.

Another way to look at it is that in an inflationary environment you can expect a company you invest in to have their earnings grow with inflation. A simple example, imagine investing in a mining company - the value in dollars for a constant amount the product of the mine, gold bars for example. will increase as dollars lose value.
 

BB1

Robin
RE: 2017 Stock Market thread

Brought a full position in Elastic (ESTC) yesterday at $76 . Disruptive technology, hyper growth, founder led, sticky product. Their business model is very similar to MongoDB.
#1 database search engine by a long shot :

https://db-engines.com/en/ranking/search+engine
Elastic (ESTC) has now doubled in stock price. It took a while to get respect from Wall Street, but I never had any doubt that this was a winner.
 

Meraki

Sparrow
Congrats on APPS.

Just got back from a short trip. If anyone followed my tip on MARA & INAQ you'd be up like crazy right now. Unfortunately I couldn't make the play, as I was worried I wouldn't have internet over the trip and be able to sell.

Right now am looking at building a tiny semi-conductor portfolio to compliment a couple mutual funds. Gameplan is to cycle out of my bluechip SPY fund in Jan/Feb 2021 if there is a pullback, and start adding to things like MU, ASX, UMC, TSM & NIO.

I've been eyeing LI as well. If anyone is following those tickers too, let me know what you think. For some I'm just looking for a swing into March, others I may hold for a couple years & scale out. Not ideal entry prices rn but the overall price action seems to be moving up. It's tough investing when I default to a trading mindset.
 

Meraki

Sparrow
One more to keep an eye on BNGO - they have a former Tesla exec as a new hire (CFO) and released positive news regarding their genetic work involving autism. Could be huge long term. I traded it from sub 2$ to about 2.20. Then got all pissed because it popped to $3 last week. Traded it yesterday from the 4s all the way up to 7$ stopping out in the 6.60s. Given how novel the tech is and how highly reputed the execs are, I wouldn't be surprised to see this at 9 or 10$ today or tmr - but green is green & I'm sticking with focusing on smaller share size, consistent trades. Went in looking for .50 and got almost $2/sh out of it yest.

Company is worth looking into for speculative holds.

Also check out JAGX. I got in under a dollar. This is a binary event. Expecting news on the 5th or 6th from them. If it's good, it should have a decent impact on share price. If it's already priced in, then it has some decent support between .88 - $1.03 so the risk isn't intolerable.

Use caution.

NIO has been running. I've been holding this for about 2 months. They have "NIO Day" coming in the next week and the buzz is that they will drop big news. LI has also been solidly grinding in the 28-30$ range and is a competitor to NIO, and a bit more affordable at current levels.
 

C-Note

Ostrich
Gold Member
I did end up making some decent money selling the stocks I bought in March when the market hit its Covid bottom for 2020. Now I wish I had bought more when they were low. I agree that the economy is heading for a recession, likely this year or the next. I guess that means that doing some short selling would be in order, but I really don't know when the market is going to crash.
 

Pendleton

Pelican
I did end up making some decent money selling the stocks I bought in March when the market hit its Covid bottom for 2020. Now I wish I had bought more when they were low. I agree that the economy is heading for a recession, likely this year or the next. I guess that means that doing some short selling would be in order, but I really don't know when the market is going to crash.
I got lucky short selling in 2008 but got burned every time I have tried it since then. The pullbacks tend to be so sharp that it is far more difficult to get the timing right compared to finding something you can buy and hold. I would be especially reluctant to short in this environment where the Fed may succeed in propping up assets prices even as the economy collapses.
 
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