Stock Market thread

Deepdiver

Crow
Gold Member

Interesting Silver Surge Up this Weekend...​

Silver is surging but users on WallStreetBets say they're not behind the rally - CNN

New York (CNN Business)The silver market is the latest flashpoint in the Reddit mania that took over Wall Street last week.

Silver futures surged as much as 13% to Monday, touching eight-year highs. That follows a 6% rally last week when some posts on the WallStreetBets group on Reddit called for betting on silver as a way to hurt big banks they believe are artificially suppressing prices.

Meanwhile, retail sites warned customers over the weekend they could not meet skyrocketing demand for silver bars and coins. And "#silversqueeze" is trending on Twitter.
However, it's not clear who the Reddit users are — nor whether their market moves match the claims online.

Weekly Silver Chart below with Fibonacci Retracement from 29 April 2011 High of 49.83 to the 11 March 2020 Low of 11.64

We are now in a Major Wave 1, 2 and an impulsing 3rd Wave up with a likely Fib target of .786 at 41.65. Wave 1 = 18, Wave 2 Low = 22, 18+22 = 40.

Sprott Physical Silver was mentioned up thread could be an interesting entry point to catch the impulsing third wave up ...

On Oct. 27, Jim Rickards provided an extended 2020 election forecast, and we recommended shares of Fortuna Silver Mines (NYSE: FSM).

Fortuna is an established mining company with a silver mine in Mexico, a silver mine in Peru, and the newly producing Lindero gold mine in Argentina.

Our long-term price target for FSM is $20. It’s based on our expectations for silver prices, Fortuna’s historical leverage to silver prices, and the incremental value from Lindero’s gold production.

Fortuna reported outstanding third quarter financial results on Nov. 12. Free cash flow from ongoing operations tripled from the same quarter last year, to $30 million. Lindero will reach commercial production in the first quarter of 2021.

As this project transitions from a state of cash consumption to cash production, Fortuna’s corporate-level free cash flow will get another significant boost.
Fortuna Silver Mines (NYSE: FSM) is a buy up to $8.50 per share. FSM at $9.12 on 1Feb21

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Mortay

Sparrow
Hey gents,

just checking in with some more dd on some of the companies I follow.
LI: recently awarded excellent safety rating, something akin to a “best in class.“ relative to NIO they are still undervalued and the price action is a bit more stable. Analysts have increased price targets to $40-49 a share. Could be good to plan a swing from low 30s to $39 in the near term. I bought more at $32.

XXII: very bullish here long term. Price action a bit frustrating right now, and is taking a beating in the market, and being shorted hard from $3. Mid-high 2s & the trend on daily chart holding well. Recent news: acquired a hemp patent & announced a huge expansion of farmland for growing. In addition to this, they are moving to a new HQ in March. They are still waiting on their FDA approval, but why make a massive move to a new building and upgrade growth operations if they didn’t think they’d get it?

recent article on yahoo finance, the CEO hints at an additional revenue source to be announced in the coming months. FDA itself has funded a lot of their research. Democrat swamp creatures pushed a lot of their low nicotine regulation of Big T in their agenda. If xxii captures just 1% of the market the stock could hit anywhere from $4-10. They’d also be a prime buyout target, but with their patents, I think they’d stand to make more thru licensing. if dems introduce a nicotine tax, cig regulation, or anti-tobacco advertising, this stock will moonshot as they’re the only company able to grow tobacco with 95% less carcinogens & up to 99% less nicotine in their cigs, which they want approved as the first combustible smoking cessation device.

i was originally in at .98 but I have added substantially at 1.90, 2, 2.10 & 2.40 over the past 3 months. Could also short squeeze, as it is being suppressed hard. Feb-March is my timeline still. But I anticipate more news in April after they move to the bigger HQ
Thanks for your summary on this. I picked up some XXII today as I'm just getting my feet wet during this stonks hype. I'd be interested in hearing your opinion on this stock in the next few months.
 

Meraki

Sparrow
Thanks for your summary on this. I picked up some XXII today as I'm just getting my feet wet during this stonks hype. I'd be interested in hearing your opinion on this stock in the next few months.
Thanks man. You picked a good day to get in. It took a beating last week. I was tempted to buy more, but I have a few thousand shares in the $2 range already.

ive been targeting March 2021 since I started following this stock in 2016. I got in under $1 and traded and swing at 2.60, 3, $4 back when it was popping bc of the FDAs proposed nicotine and combustible tobacco rules. FDA wanted a mandate to go in effect in 2020. Big T held a hearing, objected, and lobbied for a few years. But their official time in the courts has run out now and the ruling is final. I peggEd March 2021 as a guess, not based on pandemic, but back in 2017, figuring any law for 2019 or 2020 would be delayed, bc beurocratcy...

Trumps guy supported this, and Kamala & lefties REALLLY support regulating tabacco, while legalising weed. Many high up dems helped with XXII and their research has been funded by the FDA itself, and supported by research from Duke, UVA and other reputable institutions.

this company stands to benefit due to the nicotine and carcinogenic reduction, as well as their cannabis products. As far as I know, they are the only company that can genetically alter the tobacco plant, while not inducing risk to consumers, retaining flavour, and also not causing risk to the farmland it grows on. So I like that they cover all the bases.

that being said, there is a lot of short interest, and to be honest, it is a waiting game on the FDA right now. When that comes thru, shorts will be obliterate. However, for the time being, they are making more money as it has been safer to short at 3 and 2.80 as long term resistance lines.

big t is also heavily manipulating them. They had meetings and deals with Altria a few years back, but XXII just keeps getting beat down. When the FDA proposal broke, PM, Altria BAT all lost billions in shareholder value over night. Their stocks dropped farther than 20% while XXII started stabilise in $2

i am a bit frustrated tho, in that they seem intent on waiting for the FDA approval before marketing their product. They already have an approved PMTA, and could start selling. But it seems they are waiting on their MRTP status to advertise. This would be the holy grail, and the FDA did sponsor their research. It would make them the only tobacco/weed company able to advertide their product as 95% reduced risk, non addictive and not chemically stripped. While big T will need to put cancer & addiction warnings and pictures of sick lungs all over the boxes to sell traditional cigs.

if the price action doesn’t improve, I’m cool with waiting past March, as I fear if we don’t get above 3$ before news, there will be a big sell off from new holders taking the profit, since they are up like 2-300% in recent months.

supporting my March “instints” is the recent PR about moving into a new facility now, with the relocation finished by March. Having the advertising finished, and selling more seeds to farmers to upscale production. Why would they do that and employ more people if they weren’t confident?

if it goes thru, this could moonshot and if it holds past $4 I will be holding for another 90 days while they PR their sales, advertising campaigns etc. this is the timeframe they have given on nearly every conference call “we are confident in approval, with an aggressive advertising campaign planned with full product rollout scaled to 90 days after FDA permission” MGMT is also not taking bonuses until FDA news (if we are to trust them)

this is virtually everything I know on them. good luck. Hoping for good news here.

i don’t want to get too excited, as I have 80% of my portfolio here. This is one of the first stocks I traded and grew my account from 4K to about 60k with them, but it has been an emotional ride. Regardless of price action, if we hit 3.50 soon I have an alternate plan of selling all but 5k shares, as at 3.50, I can buy a house with the money in this stock. If not, then I lose around 10k from here. that doesn’t seem too unreasonable a risk. Time will tell.
 
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Meraki

Sparrow
Also traditionally, it takes about 9 months to review an MRTP application. It’s been about that long for them, but it’s understandable if the FDA is delayed due to Rona, vaxx nonsense and they go thru 1000s of MRTP apps per year from other companies and are quite strict with the data requirements. Someone started a rumour in yahoo finance that “Tuesday” is the FDA’s day for rulings. I have no idea if that is true or not, but it has caused nothing but panic selling each week as we wait for news, which leads me to believe it’s either impatient longs, or shorts.

XXII has compiled research on consumer safety, use as a cessation device, 2nd smoke, and public health impact. Every paper I have seen is overwhelming in their favour, and independent scientists have presented work that corroborates XXII’s case in major cancer, smoking & public health symposiums.

every base from “smokers will just smoke more“ or “you can’t quit from a cigarette” or “you can still get cancer” has been covered by detailed research funded by the FDA itself, among other institutions.
 

Mortay

Sparrow
Thanks man. You picked a good day to get in. It took a beating last week. I was tempted to buy more, but I have a few thousand shares in the $2 range already.

ive been targeting March 2021 since I started following this stock in 2016. I got in under $1 and traded and swing at 2.60, 3, $4 back when it was popping bc of the FDAs proposed nicotine and combustible tobacco rules. FDA wanted a mandate to go in effect in 2020. Big T held a hearing, objected, and lobbied for a few years. But their official time in the courts has run out now and the ruling is final. I peggEd March 2021 as a guess, not based on pandemic, but back in 2017, figuring any law for 2019 or 2020 would be delayed, bc beurocratcy...

Trumps guy supported this, and Kamala & lefties REALLLY support regulating tabacco, while legalising weed. Many high up dems helped with XXII and their research has been funded by the FDA itself, and supported by research from Duke, UVA and other reputable institutions.

this company stands to benefit due to the nicotine and carcinogenic reduction, as well as their cannabis products. As far as I know, they are the only company that can genetically alter the tobacco plant, while not inducing risk to consumers, retaining flavour, and also not causing risk to the farmland it grows on. So I like that they cover all the bases.

that being said, there is a lot of short interest, and to be honest, it is a waiting game on the FDA right now. When that comes thru, shorts will be obliterate. However, for the time being, they are making more money as it has been safer to short at 3 and 2.80 as long term resistance lines.

big t is also heavily manipulating them. They had meetings and deals with Altria a few years back, but XXII just keeps getting beat down. When the FDA proposal broke, PM, Altria BAT all lost billions in shareholder value over night. Their stocks dropped farther than 20% while XXII started stabilise in $2

i am a bit frustrated tho, in that they seem intent on waiting for the FDA approval before marketing their product. They already have an approved PMTA, and could start selling. But it seems they are waiting on their MRTP status to advertise. This would be the holy grail, and the FDA did sponsor their research. It would make them the only tobacco/weed company able to advertide their product as 95% reduced risk, non addictive and not chemically stripped. While big T will need to put cancer & addiction warnings and pictures of sick lungs all over the boxes to sell traditional cigs.

if the price action doesn’t improve, I’m cool with waiting past March, as I fear if we don’t get above 3$ before news, there will be a big sell off from new holders taking the profit, since they are up like 2-300% in recent months.

supporting my March “instints” is the recent PR about moving into a new facility now, with the relocation finished by March. Having the advertising finished, and selling more seeds to farmers to upscale production. Why would they do that and employ more people if they weren’t confident?

if it goes thru, this could moonshot and if it holds past $4 I will be holding for another 90 days while they PR their sales, advertising campaigns etc. this is the timeframe they have given on nearly every conference call “we are confident in approval, with an aggressive advertising campaign planned with full product rollout scaled to 90 days after FDA permission” MGMT is also not taking bonuses until FDA news (if we are to trust them)

this is virtually everything I know on them. good luck. Hoping for good news here.

i don’t want to get too excited, as I have 80% of my portfolio here. This is one of the first stocks I traded and grew my account from 4K to about 60k with them, but it has been an emotional ride. Regardless of price action, if we hit 3.50 soon I have an alternate plan of selling all but 5k shares, as at 3.50, I can buy a house with the money in this stock. If not, then I lose around 10k from here. that doesn’t seem too unreasonable a risk. Time will tell.

This is all impressive research. Way to go on growing your account. Hope it all works out for you. I am as newbie as it gets here so your insights have definitely been valuable. Thanks for the info.
 

Meraki

Sparrow
@Mortay I’m not an expert. Have been burned several times even on companies I did miles of DD on. And right now I’m getting burned on LI & OEG when I missed the sell at 11.90. Game plan is to go green more than red. 60/40. 70/30. Sometimes 55/45 but never end a month read even if I only make $100 bucks.

i just try to pick a few underdogs and they generally, so far, have outperformed losers.

but you need to be able to stomach 2k, 3k, 10k losses out of nowhere. And then bounce back or trust that you can rebound with a 5k, 10, 15, 20k winner.

if you have been following this thread, I sold most of my ISUN from 17 to 31$ last month. I still have 20 shares at 17, but am going to need to sell them to cover margin on LI since I bought at 32 & 35 thinking it’d tap 37 this week. Hopefully that turns around or I’ll be giving back big chunk of the ISUN profit.

i day trade for a few hundred to a few k per month and then keep stuff like LI & XXII as long term dollar cost that I occasionally swing the cheaper shares from and re-enter.

goal is to hit this one right and then greatly reduce my risk profile. I just understand that at my income level as an underemployed millenial making $15k a year, leveraging bitcoin & share size on cheap stock is probably the only way I have of getting to middle class without a career change, despite having several skillsets in different fields. So I stomach the risk. Worse case scenario, I’m back to freelance work.

I’m going big or not at all.
 
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holgerdanske

Sparrow
I just sold my remaining shares. Good luck to everyone else who are still holding.
A great way to gauge the quality of a trade is to reflect on your own feelings right after. If you feel relieved then it was a panic sale, no matter what you are telling yourself. If you feel ecstatic then you're probably on the hype train and your expectations exceed reality (in most cases). If you feel nothing or your state of mind is neutral then your trade was according to your own rules and not exogenous in origin.
 

Deepdiver

Crow
Gold Member
XXII Wave 4 Retested .618 at 2.69
A .618 Wave 5 retrace of Wave 4 = 1.37 just below the .236 retrace of 1.45
Therefore 1.40 between .236 and the 1.37 .618 target of Wave 4 retrace looks like the best 5th wave entry point for the next ABC up against current down trend.
Keep in mind that Wave 5 is the most indeterminant wave so .382, .618 of Wave 4 or Wave 5 = to Wave 1 are all accurate possibilities. (A .618 Wave 5 retrace of wave 4 is shown).
1612311400237.png
 
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Meraki

Sparrow
Hey @Deepdiver cool of you to look into this.
care to elaborate a bit more on the waves? esp in the context of this stock having Upcoming major catalysts

I do not know enough about wave theory. But I do understand a bit about how this stock moves. Much of the moving averages don’t make sense, due to the large drop about 6 months ago. That had more to do with Rona & FDA politics extending Big Ts rope (which is now closed) than the companies fundamentals or fair value.

when I look at the past few months on the daily chart I see a healthy recovery to baseline in the $2 range. With this gradually testing 3 leading into catalysts. How does your wave idea play out? It gets knocked down another 50 cents but then rebounds higher ?
 

Meraki

Sparrow
PLRTF news on drone for vaccine delivery. 30% pump. Added shares at .44. Wanted more but cash didn’t clear.

XXII has begun the next leg up. Up about half a dollar in two days and testing 2.80 an hour into trading.

feeling great on this call right now and thanks to the brother who mentioned PLRTF a few pages back. Let’s keep the dd and trade ideas coming boys. We’ve had some big hits here with ISUN, GME, AMC, XSPA, NIO, XXII, PLRTF, BNGO & MARA

lots of life changing potential in this thread.
 
PLRTF news on drone for vaccine delivery. 30% pump. Added shares at .44. Wanted more but cash didn’t clear.

XXII has begun the next leg up. Up about half a dollar in two days and testing 2.80 an hour into trading.

feeling great on this call right now and thanks to the brother who mentioned PLRTF a few pages back. Let’s keep the dd and trade ideas coming boys. We’ve had some big hits here with ISUN, GME, AMC, XSPA, NIO, XXII, PLRTF, BNGO & MARA

lots of life changing potential in this thread.
Wait, PLRTF or RLFTF?
 

Meraki

Sparrow
It’s a sort of crappy corrupt company. But they have ex Lockheed execs and MIC tech that will do well in the clown world plandemic surveillance state.

im holding for a run to $1

greedy Mgmt will want it to pop past .75 as they did some stock offer there

safe play on a penny flip. Just regret not piling in more two days ago, but had put my free money into ETH BTC, which also worked out just fine
 

Labienus

Woodpecker
Just bought Silver Miners.
FR - First Majestic
WGM - Wheaton

I want to have a little leverage with these miners if silver blows up.
Good picks, especially Wheaton. Wheaton is a streaming company. They do not do any mining and generate their revenue from making agreements with mining companies to purchase all or part of their gold/silver production at a predetermined price. The streaming/royalty business is very profitable, especially at these gold/silver price levels, and are much less risky than mining since their costs are much lower. Mining is expensive.

I also like Fortuna Silver Mines. However, they are a bit risky right now since they have a lawsuit with the Mexican government over unpaid royalties. if they lose this lawsuit they will have to pay around US$30 Million. They produce both silver and gold, and their Lindero mine is now starting to produce large quantities of gold. It's definitely risky at this stage but the upside potential is enormous. First Majestic also has a tax lawsuit with the Mexican government.
 
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