Stock Market thread

homersheineken

Kingfisher
XXII Wave 4 Retested .618 at 2.69
A .618 Wave 5 retrace of Wave 4 = 1.37 just below the .236 retrace of 1.45
Therefore 1.40 between .236 and the 1.37 .618 target of Wave 4 retrace looks like the best 5th wave entry point for the next ABC up against current down trend.
Keep in mind that Wave 5 is the most indeterminant wave so .382, .618 of Wave 4 or Wave 5 = to Wave 1 are all accurate possibilities. (A .618 Wave 5 retrace of wave 4 is shown).
View attachment 28943
Where is a good resource on how to read (and more importantly) interpret this chart?
 

Deepdiver

Crow
Gold Member
Where is a good resource on how to read (and more importantly) interpret this chart?
The Chart Jumped out as a classic 5 Wave Chart from the Previous Swing High... Without reading all of the NYU Trading Books and EW RN Elliott and Prechter's EW update financial textbooks...

The Basic Rules of Elliott Waves establishing Trend Channels Lower, Clone to Upper and RMS Math Midpoint then applying the 9, 20, 50 and 200 Trader's Moving Averages (Above 200 Day Trending Up and Below 200 Day Trending Down) ... Then apply the Fibonacci Retracement Tool from the Swing High to Swing Low and EW will be mostly accurate when fit to the Fib levels. The hassle with EW is it is Fractal with many Degree Levels from sub micro to Super Millennial ...

Rather than read a full Text Book this link is detailed yet succinct and 99% accurate.


This XXII Chart being a 4 Year Wave 1 Swing High to Impulsing ABC Wave 3 Swing Low would be a Primary Degree Chart with Next Level Down Intermediate Waves i.e. the obvious ABC move down in the impulsing Wave 3 down trend the Good News is once Wave 5 Finishes above the 200 Day then the most likely move is a trend reversal in ABC up that can Morph into a larger 5 Wave up to new ATHs. Wave 2 was Congestive and Longer in Time and Wave 4 was impulsing and shorter in time respecting the Waves 2 and 4 rule of alternation.

Bottom Line is wherever Wave 5 Finishes down you will have an optimal long term HODL entry point for the Primary Degree Trend Reversal.

Valid Fibonacci Retracements and Extensions... for each wave and Fractal Degrees.

1612393526137.png

HTH

1612390788393.png
 
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Deepdiver

Crow
Gold Member
Why did I select .618 of wave 4 as the Wave 5 Target retracement when Wave 5 is the most indeterminant wave?

If you draw a wave 1 to wave 3 baseline for your trend channel and clone it to the Start of wave 1 and wave 4 swing high - then clone a RMS Root Mean Square Mid Point you will see the mid trend channel line intersects approx with the .618 retracement of wave 4 - though a 25% deviation line between the mid and Upper trend Channel lines could be the .382 retracement of wave 4

.382 and .618 retrace of wave 4 are equal probabilities for the indeterminant wave 5 therefore measure the length of Wave 4 times either .382 or.618 retrace (.618 shown in the Chart coincides with the Larger Primary .236 retrace Fib) for the two most probable XXII wave 5 entry points when wave 5 ends and turns up in an ABC of a larger Degree Wave 1.

When XXII closes back above the start of Primary Wave 1 then Fibonacci Extension Rules Up govern and I will create a Fibonacci Extensions Chart up if someone reminds me.

There is no Chaos - Mathematics Rules.
 
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rainy

Kingfisher
I would consider RITE which will be mining in Nev and Utah as a low risk, high upside affordable option. Just bought 50K shares for about $110.

Can't find it now but saw they're in play for government contracts. This industry is likely to boom.

EtUb3ACXUAU8jFI



EtUP5C5WgAUngZj
 

Meraki

Sparrow
@Mortay

They've been on my radar too. Zero dd, but it seems the volume & interest is there for a move. I've got like nothing to trade with tho. Might be able to margin about 1k shares

NAKD looking at the chart, the volume is unreal. But there is going to be a boatload of resistance at 1.40 from trapped longs. On the otherside, there are tons of shares outstanding, but also over 30million shorts.

There is defintely a move here, I'd think the safest play is a buy on the upper 1.30s on the way to break 1.40 and sell at 1.55. I'd expect Level 2 to get really intense around there, but it will be incredibly volatile by the minute and could U Turn by .10. There is a giant red candle with 30mil volume to the downside, immediatly following the biggest move up, which has a range of about .10-.15 yest.

Personally, I prefer stuff that can move .20 in a candle, and you scalp that, or with such a strong trend, you can candle it into the next day.

There is a move here, but you're going to need to babysit it, so if the rocket takes off, you get out when it looks like that candle is closing, or else the drop will be brutal. Lots of trades here.... 30+mil short, and 35mil candles on the 5min chart................

sidenote: what does the forum think of BWEN? theyre a trendy green energy biden stock
 

Meraki

Sparrow
@Deepdiver thanks DeepD - I will read up on this later. They hit 2.80s yesterday and closed at 2.73 which is above the wave 1.
Do you then recalculate fibonacci extensions to the upside?

I'm going to assume this is your preferred method of trading & analysis - if so, what sort of probability are you successful? At least in terms of how you came to adopt this strategy & signals you look for.

Thanks
 

palsofchaos

Sparrow
sidenote: what does the forum think of BWEN? theyre a trendy green energy biden stock

CEO started out as a CPA. CPA's make some of the best CEOs.

Their job board is hefty. Looks like they have manufacturing in Wisconsin: checks the built in America box.

Its not flashy but it looks good at a glance.
 
How do you guys trade stocks that are OTC? My bank won't let me dabble in penny stocks since my account is considered to be registered. Since I'm not in the US, I can't use Robin Hood. NWAU was looking good to me, as was PLRTF, which someone mentioned here.
 

Meraki

Sparrow
You need a pattern daytrader account, some software & a 25k balance in margin account.
I use Fidelity Active Trader. Havent tried anything else or other apps. I’ve heard good things about Think or Swim & TD Ameritrade. @bioengineer

for OTC you need to also limit order if under a dollar, most brokers won’t let everyone do this without the day trade setup. If you break these rules, you can get fined or temporary freezes on your account. Learned the hard way.

most brokers only allow a few commission few trades, and def not intraday. My unsolicited advice would be to start with 4K and try to swing trade over a few days - months for +25% and make a k. Keep rolling that until you hit 25k, so you avoid breaking the day trading rules. Then once you have enough balance, call your broker to set up a pattern day trader account so you can do intraday stuff.

honestly it’s a bit overrated. Nearly all day trades that we’ve seen in the forum recently, were multibaggers if held more than a week or even month. Like JAGX & BNGO. I thought I was hot dookie in at .99 and out at $6.60. Thing pops to 12$ a coupLe weeks later. Don’t dive into it. Right now, the intro day ability has only been worth it for cutting loss surgically.
 
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Deepdiver

Crow
Gold Member
@Deepdiver thanks DeepD - I will read up on this later. They hit 2.80s yesterday and closed at 2.73 which is above the wave 1.
Do you then recalculate fibonacci extensions to the upside?

I'm going to assume this is your preferred method of trading & analysis - if so, what sort of probability are you successful? At least in terms of how you came to adopt this strategy & signals you look for.

Thanks
I would recalculate only if the weekly closed above the start of Wave 1 Swing High and stayed there for a week or so ... The rule is TA on Candle Closes on the same degree fractal wave... Not the candle wicks that are thinly traded.

Remember this is a 4 year Primary Wave XXII Chart so daily moves are a minute fractal degree Wave both up and down.

... I use over 50 TA confirmations ...

The smaller fractal waves can finish up on any day while still in the larger primary 5th wave 4 year down trend... The smaller degree fractal waves finish first and the larger fractal waves govern for the optimal entry and exit targets. 5th Primary wave must complete before the next Trend reversal ABC leg up.

Fractal EW wave analysis keeps you from prematurely FOMOing in or FUDing out of a trade.
 

Meraki

Sparrow
Great. I have a lot to learn from you. I like that idea as a FOMO insurance policy.

@Mortay how you like that action? 3.09 today... kicking myself for not having more cash. Looks like I’ll be forced into a bad trade on LI to add into this if 3.20 gets in play going into next week.

of note - this is the first new high on a green candle in months, usually the bursts up have sold off. Feb - March is going to be great once they start PRing the new venture and new facility. Feeling good so far, and a bit vindicated since I’ve been day trading, swinging, and now longing them for 4 years. The price action I am seeing is lining up nicely with the charts I drew in 2017.

goal for today was a close on low volume above 2.80 to keep the trend. We got a run past $3, big green candle on the day, and medium volume, with a tap of 3.07AH.

again, I want it to CRAWL as high as possible before moves. This stock swings a lot in a day in either direction.
good luck to all
 
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Meraki

Sparrow
I hope no one took the NAKD trade... that was dicey in premarket. Too much volume & not enough price action. I watched it reject 1.30 a bunch, drew a line a around 1.19 for a bounce and when that weakly crawled to 1.23, I stopped watching. Figure it will prob dip to 1.15 and if you’re lucky you can get rid of it at 1.25

overall trend is still up if you want to hold for a miracle into tmr, but watching something churn fractions of a penny at 70mil volume in an hour is not worth it
 

palsofchaos

Sparrow
I have a potential swing trade for tomorrow. Biolase (biol) just regained nasdaq compliance today. After the news hit the afterhours was up almost 20% (1.11 - 1.29). This one could see some action tomorrow.

Its not a bad company either. They make dental lasers and have good cash on hand/revenue.
 
The Chart Jumped out as a classic 5 Wave Chart from the Previous Swing High... Without reading all of the NYU Trading Books and EW RN Elliott and Prechter's EW update financial textbooks...

The Basic Rules of Elliott Waves establishing Trend Channels Lower, Clone to Upper and RMS Math Midpoint then applying the 9, 20, 50 and 200 Trader's Moving Averages (Above 200 Day Trending Up and Below 200 Day Trending Down) ... Then apply the Fibonacci Retracement Tool from the Swing High to Swing Low and EW will be mostly accurate when fit to the Fib levels. The hassle with EW is it is Fractal with many Degree Levels from sub micro to Super Millennial ...

Rather than read a full Text Book this link is detailed yet succinct and 99% accurate.


This XXII Chart being a 4 Year Wave 1 Swing High to Impulsing ABC Wave 3 Swing Low would be a Primary Degree Chart with Next Level Down Intermediate Waves i.e. the obvious ABC move down in the impulsing Wave 3 down trend the Good News is once Wave 5 Finishes above the 200 Day then the most likely move is a trend reversal in ABC up that can Morph into a larger 5 Wave up to new ATHs. Wave 2 was Congestive and Longer in Time and Wave 4 was impulsing and shorter in time respecting the Waves 2 and 4 rule of alternation.

Bottom Line is wherever Wave 5 Finishes down you will have an optimal long term HODL entry point for the Primary Degree Trend Reversal.

Valid Fibonacci Retracements and Extensions... for each wave and Fractal Degrees.

View attachment 28958

HTH

View attachment 28956

I appreciate your analysis and posts but what is the endgoal here? Are you predicting some sort of trend with index prices (up, down, sideways)?
 

C-Note

Ostrich
Gold Member
I would consider RITE which will be mining in Nev and Utah as a low risk, high upside affordable option. Just bought 50K shares for about $110.

Can't find it now but saw they're in play for government contracts. This industry is likely to boom.

EtUb3ACXUAU8jFI



EtUP5C5WgAUngZj
Reading between the lines of their press releases, it looks like their plan is to find rare earth minerals in abandoned mines and old trailings left by other mining companies. I don't know enough about mining to know if that's a viable strategy. It sounds like one of those, "If we hit the motherlode, we'll all be rich!" kind of things. I'm willing to lose $100 on it, however, because at $.02 a stock, if they did hit the motherlode or a rich government contract, that would be a motherlode of gains in the stock price. The thing is, how do you keep from dropping $100 on all the hundreds or thousands of penny-stock companies promising the same thing?
 

Mortay

Sparrow
@Mortay how you like that action? 3.09 today... kicking myself for not having more cash. Looks like I’ll be forced into a bad trade on LI to add into this if 3.20 gets in play going into next week.

Yes, I am feeling good about it hitting $3. I am in a similar position wishing I could have thrown down more early on.

I hope no one took the NAKD trade... that was dicey in premarket. Too much volume & not enough price action. I watched it reject 1.30 a bunch, drew a line a around 1.19 for a bounce and when that weakly crawled to 1.23, I stopped watching. Figure it will prob dip to 1.15 and if you’re lucky you can get rid of it at 1.25

overall trend is still up if you want to hold for a miracle into tmr, but watching something churn fractions of a penny at 70mil volume in an hour is not worth it

You were right about selling NAKD at $1.40. I should have done that yesterday. I'll probably dump at $1.25 since i got in at $1.
 

C-Note

Ostrich
Gold Member
Peloton Interactive (the fancy stationary bike) was almost out of business at the beginning of 2020. Their stock was at $19.51 in March. It's now at $160. The pandemic likely saved their company. I remember thinking out loud to my wife back in March that the 'rona was probably going to save their company, but, unfortunately, I failed to take advantage of the opportunity.

I've heard now that the RV industry in the US is starting to take off, as retirees are abandoning plans to go on ship cruises or travel by air to resorts around the Western Hemisphere or elsewhere. Since it looks like the globalists are keeping the pandemic going as long as they can, we probably should take advantage of the opportunities it provides like with Peloton. Should we start a separate thread just on investment opportunities in businesses that benefit from lockdowns and virus scares?
 

Deepdiver

Crow
Gold Member
I appreciate your analysis and posts but what is the endgoal here? Are you predicting some sort of trend with index prices (up, down, sideways)?
GOALS:

1. Know how to anticipate price action for any electronically traded security/commodity/crypto/currency

2. Calculate best trading Entry and Exit points

3. Never lose money (via being on the wrong side of FOMO and FUD emotions)

4. Always make a profit.

As the Italians say "e molto simplice!"
 

Deepdiver

Crow
Gold Member
Why you should learn how to safely trade CME Futures specifically S&P 500 Emini ESx, Micro-Emini MESx and BTC futures:


Discount Futures Brokers Day Margins Emini $500 per contract, Micro-Emini $50 contract and
BTC Futures $3K+/- per 5 BTC contract. Be out by 3:30 PM to avoid overnight margins (full retail) during NYC 4PM to 6 PM futures settlement time.

or;

Retail investors can now buy at 2:30 AM London opens and then 9:30AM open a day margins - major playing field leveler - a game changer especially since BTC has recently been popping on the London Open and Retracing through the NYC open/day.

Hint goto barchart.com select technical charts at bottom select "candlesticks" barcharts and Add Technical Study: ATR defaults to 14 day - I like 20 day - Hit DRAW button defaults to 6 mos daily chart and mouse over the most recent daily Candles for that days true ATR move that day and the 20 day SMA ATR.

GOTO https://www.mypivots.com/investment-calculators/ select Daytrade Millionaire calculator

Plug in the last day candles ATR(20) in the points per day field

Emini is $50.00 per point (ESH21 Mar 21 Contract ATR(20) SMA 60.73 5Feb21)
MESx is $5.00 per point - Same ATR(20)
BTC Futures are $5.00 point (Each point times 5 BTC CME Futures Contract ATR $3,044 5Feb21)

BTC Futures are not BTC so no need to notify the IRS that you own cryptos... yet trading profits are enormous.

If the answers do not motivate you to learn CME futures trading nothing will.
 
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