Learning to trade (short) CME intraday S&P futures I posted upthread looking like a useful skill...
Harry's S&P Target correction 2,100 - When Markets correct they FUD move fast down with high volatility generating fast short profits.
Harry may be optimistic - a .618 retrace of the current High 3931 to March 2009 666 low = 1914 target
The 200 Month SPX Moving Average is 1817
Retrace range 1800 to 2100.
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FYI I showed a 40 year S&P Chart, the longest bull market in history was from the 2009 swing low to today - trees do not grow to heaven and all markets eventually come back to balance (the 200 MA on every sized chart is balance)... the point is with huge CME Futures trading volumes in the S&P and now CME BTC futures you make money on all Up and Down day moves - with Market Corrections being the most profitable due to shorts FUD volatility.
Learn to trade CME Futures intraday as I posted up thread - we use 50+ trading confirmations - you can trade profitably on a consistent basis with as few as 10 - you can thank me with a draft IPA one day
BTW on dd for XXII - I read the news again. Seems the potential here is huge and they hint at “advanced discussions” for operations and partnerships with weed companies. From the looks of it, KeyGene seems reputable and has been assisting with IP deals since the 80s. This news has made me rethink selling on the anticipated tobacco March run, and instead holding 50% thru the summer. Scoring a Canadian or domestic deal is going to be huge.
And that information will make you money how? John Williams of Shadowstats reports real inflation at 9% and Michael Saylor MSTR CEO reporting min corp treasury returns need to be 15% to preserve future purchasing power.By the way, about return to the mean - I think it only makes sense to look at inflation-adjusted charts on a long scale (and recent "official" inflation numbers/CPI are far from reality). If you look at money supply charts they shoot up near vertical in 2020, condition not seen before, emitted over 23% of past money supply in 2020- if S&P was adjusted for this, the current run up would be nothing, as S&P only run under 15% up since last close before the March crash.
So it's not even back to that point where it crashed, in real dollars.
Here's one article about secular market cycles (bull/bear long term trends) and it has inflation-adjusted 150 years S&P charts with regression trendlines and channel boundairs. These cycles run long. The bull macro-cycle might be not finished (though pretty sure corrections are coming).
As of 2021-02-11 03:35:02 PM CST (updates daily):
The Stock Market is Significantly Overvalued according to Buffett Indicator. Based on the historical ratio of total market cap over GDP (currently at 195.1%), it is likely to return -3% a year from this level of valuation, including dividends.
Meanwhile, based on the historical ratio of newly introduced total market cap over GDP plus Total Asset of Federal Reserve Banks (currently at 145.1%), the stock market is Significantly Overvalued, and it is likely to return -1.3% a year from this level of valuation, including dividends.
Note: Starting from 12/07/2020, we introduced a new indicator, TMC / (GDP + Total Assets of Fed) ratio to calculate the implied future return.