Stock Market thread

C-Note

Hummingbird
Gold Member
When I was listing mining companies that produce metals used in lithium batteries, I didn't list any that produce actual lithium. Lithium itself seems to be a little more complicated than cobalt, nickel, vanadium, and graphite. There is no "market price" for lithium as it doesn't have an international market standard. Lithium prices collapsed from 2019 through the end of 2020. The fall was, in part, because there was overproduction in lithium because Chinese domestic production of it surged while at the same time battery production was falling, which was exacerbated by the pandemic economic slowdowns. The crash in lithium prices almost put some Australian and Chilean mining companies out of business, because that's where the majority of non-Chinese lithium comes from.

The price of lithium now seems to be going back up, but there are still some fairly cheap prices out there for Lithium producers, with some exceptions. Here are some Lithium companies.

Large companies:
- Sociedad Quimica y Minera- SQM
- Albemarle- ALB

Mid-sized:
- Livent- LIHM
- Lithium Americas- LAC
- Orocobre- OROCF
- Mineral Resources- MALRY
- Galaxy Resources- GALXF

As for small companies, I notice that many of the ones I looked at have very amateurish websites and presentations. I'll list the ones that looked more legit at the top, with the more fly-by-night ones after that:

- Rock Tech Lithium- RCKTF- Peter Thiel is a backer of this company, so I think its stock price is a little elevated because of his name being attached. They're developing a mine in Canada and will process it in Europe.

- Millennial Lithium- MLNLF- Argentina. Their presentation has hard dates on it, such as when they'll begin production (2024).

The following appear to be more risky or otherwise very early in development and don't provide a timeline on when they expect to go into production:

- Lithium Chile- LTMCF
- Noram Ventures- NRVTF
- E3 Metals- EEMMF
- Pure Energy Minerals- PEMIF
- Frontier Lithium- LITOF
- Alpha Lithium- ALLIF
- Cypress Development- CYDVF
- American Lithium- LIACF
- Critical Elements Lithium- CRECF
- Megawatt Lithium & Battery Metals- WALRF
- Lake Resources- LLKKF
- Pilbara Minerals- PILBF
- Kidman Resources
- Argosy Minerals- ARYMF
- AVZ Minerals- AZZVF
 
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60 minute AMA with Dr. Susanne Trimbath (whistle blower). Must watch. It's organized by a GME subreddit, but the AMA is mostly about the stock market as a house of cards. Very good watch, exciting if you're hopeful for this "movement."

 

C-Note

Hummingbird
Gold Member
I don't invest in stocks at all, but work in supply chain where we have a huge shortage of drivers. Looks like there is expected to be a big gas shortage this spring and summer, driving up prices. Not sure if you guys could parlay that into anything useful.
If I understand correctly, a surge in inflation particularly hurts fixed-interest bonds and dividend-paying stocks. Ways to hedge against it are:

1. Inflation-adjusted bonds, like TIPS (one of the mutual funds I'm invested in with Vanguard is an "Inflation-protected securities fund.")
2. Commodities like precious metals, oil, and agricultural products. So, would investing in mining companies be a good play?
3. Real estate, including REITs (real estate mutual funds)
4. Money market- I recently reduced my money market exposure. Should I up it back a little?
5. Shorting dividend stocks

What am I missing?
 

C-Note

Hummingbird
Gold Member
Here are some Lithium companies.
I neglected to mention Standard Lithium (STLHF). It's a Canadian company that has two projects in Arkansas and California. They say they may have initial production in Arkansas by as early as the middle of next year. Their stock jumped by a dollar to $3.43 over the past couple of weeks, but if they deliver on that date for starting production, then I don't think that price is necessarily too high. If they really can get into full production within a year or so, then their stock could really pop, of course predicated that Elon Musk et al are still screaming for more lithium.

I haven't done a deep dive on the company, just a cursory glance at their website and corporate presentation.

Also, I should add that Orocobre is currently acquiring Galaxy and E3 Metals looks more legit than they did at first glance.
 
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Deepdiver

Crow
Gold Member
May 2021 Strategic Intel Report 65 page PDF - here is the TLDR summary:

The List Of Twenty To Sell Here is the list of twenty stocks to dump if you own them. Below, explains why each one, at current prices, offers investors minimal upside and enormous downside: 1. Chipotle Mexican Grill (NYSE: CMG) 2. Starbucks (NYSE: SBUX) 3. Netflix (NASDAQ: NFLX) 4. Wynn Resorts Ltd. (NASDAQ: WYNN) 5. Capri Holdings (NYSE: CPRI) 6. Royal Caribbean Group (NYSE: RCL) 7. American Airlines Group (NASDAQ: AAL) 8. Uber Technologies (NYSE: UBER) 9. Host Hotels & Resorts Inc. (NYSE: HST) 10. Burlington Stores (NYSE: BURL) 11. Wayfair Inc (NYSE: W) 12. Beyond Meat (NASDAQ: BYND) 13. Invesco Solar ETF (NYSE: TAN) 14. SolarEdge Technologies (NASDAQ: SEDG) 15. Enphase Energy (NASDAQ: ENPH) 16. Jinko Solar Holding (NYSE: JKS) 17. Plug Power (NYSE: PLUG) 18. Tesla Inc (NASDAQ: TSLA) 19. General Motors (NYSE: GM) 20. Carvana Co. (NYSE: CVNA)

And the flip side...

The five stocks we feature below are quite distinct from one another. They are: • a fertilizer manufacturer; • a distributor of consumable supplies to the oil and gas industry; • a shipping company specializing in liquid petroleum gases like propane; • a financial company with an iconic credit card brand; and • a technology company that’s doubted because it’s considered to be slow-moving and uncool. You may notice a common thread in the five stocks we feature below: They are, generally speaking, considered to be “value stocks.” Value stocks were out of favor until late 2020. Prior to that, “growth stocks” ruled the roost. After a decade of underperformance in the 2010s, value stocks are likely to outperform growth stocks in the 2020s. While there is no universally accepted definition for either type of stock, some stocks are clearly in one category or another. One way to differentiate growth stocks from value stocks is to gauge how high investors’ expectations are for future financial performance. If investors have very high expectations for future revenue and earnings growth, they will be willing to buy and hold stocks at very high valuations. Expectations tend to be significantly lower for value stocks. So, value stocks are generally under much lower pressure to deliver outstanding performance.

We think the expectations embedded in the prices of these five stocks are still low, and easily beatable: 1.CF Industries Holdings (NYSE: CF) 2.NOW Inc. (NYSE: DNOW) 3.Dorian LPG (NYSE: LPG) 4.American Express Co. (NYSE: AXP) 5.Oracle Corp (NYSE: ORCL)

Each Stock is reviewed in Depth in the Report.

Also ten stocks we expect to perform well in the post-pandemic world – to be a valuable addition to your subscription.

In preview, here are the names of each stock. Below, you’ll find our detailed case for each one, along with how much upside potential we expect in the years ahead.
  1. Kinross Gold (NYSE: KGC)
  2. Yamana Gold (NYSE: AUY)
  3. Barrick Gold (NYSE: GOLD)
  4. Kirkland Lake Gold (NYSE: KL)
  5. Newmont Corp. (NYSE: NEM)
  6. Alamos Gold (NYSE: AGI)
  7. U.S. Global Investors (NASDAQ: GROW)
  8. Freeport-McMoRan (NYSE: FCX)
  9. CME Group (NASDAQ: CME)
  10. Edgewell Personal Care (NYSE: EPC)
These aren’t official recommendations, so I won’t be tracking them in portfolio updates. We’re publishing these stock picks to provide you with extra guidance and added value for your subscription ahead of a post-pandemic world.
 

C-Note

Hummingbird
Gold Member
Update on the rare earths (RE) situation in the US. For some reason, it was hard to piece together the current picture in the US, but here it is as I understand it:

- MP Materials (NYSE: MP; $39.40) currently operates the only operating rare earths mine in the US: the Mountain Pass mine on the California/Nevada border. It also operates the only RE processing plant, which is at that mine. However, the plant does not process all of the ore, only a few select elements. The rest of the ore is shipped unprocessed to China. A Chinese company, Shenghe, owns between 8-10% of MP.

- Rare Element Resources (REEMF; $2.62) is developing an RE mine in northeast Wyoming. It plans to operate a processing plant in the nearby town. It has yet to produce any ore or revenue, but it has harvested some raw ore which it has in storage.

- Texas Mineral Resources (TMRC; $2.62) is developing an RE mine (Round Top) in southwest Texas near El Paso. As of 2021, according to its website, it has ceased exploration because it ran out of money. They were apparently hoping to get a government contract to fund further development, which has not come through (see below). They have a formal partnership with USA Rare Earths (see below).

- USA Rare Earths (USARE) is a private company which appears to want to be a management, exploration, and processing company of REs in the US, but not to actually mine them. It's only partner so far is TMRC, to whom it helped fund their exploration in Texas until recently. USARE reportedly plans to issue an IPO or a SPAC sometime this year to allow them to fund further exploration at Round Top and to build a processing plant in Colorado. According to TMRC's website, if the Texas mine goes into full operation, the processing plant will eventually relocate to Texas. I suspect that USARE wants to build the plant in Colorado so it can process ore from MP, REEMF, and TMRC as well as any other companies that start production in the Western US. If they go public this year, their goal is to have the plant in operation by 2023.

All of these companies were hoping to get a huge grant or contract from the US Department of Defense (DoD) to continue their exploration, start their mines, and/or build processing plants. It didn't happen. Instead, last month the DoD awarded the contract to the Australian company Lynas (LYC; $6.10), which will build its plant in Texas (Hondo) and ship ore from Australia to be processed there. They have not said if they would be willing to process ore from any of the American companies listed above.

That's the situation with rare earths in the US. I can think of one big question: Will the Biden Administration continue to fund American RE independence from China? If Trump was President, I think the answer would clearly be "yes." But, I don't know with Biden/Harris.
Fairly big announcement this morning. USA Rare Earths (USARE) is purchasing enough stock in Texas Mineral Resources to assume 80% control of the company. USARE is forming a private LLC called Round Top to start exploiting the Texas claim. Texas Mineral will maintain a 20% interest in the project and will help develop it, while shifting other resources to explore a rare earths claim in New Mexico and experiment with processing rare earths from coal.

I assume that USARE is still planning on going public later this year and I'm keeping a close watch on it. I would hope that USARE would also purchase controlling interest in REEMF but they may be thinking that that would leverage them a little too much. If they do acquire REEMF that will give them two rare earths mines and would make them a major player in rare earths in the US, assuming both mines are rich in ore. If USARE goes public, I assume they would eventually subsume Texas Mineral and convert their stock to USARE stock.
 

GreyStar

Chicken
What do people here think about uranium stocks? I heard it put this way recently "you could buy up all of the uranium producers, who supply 11% of the worlds power, for $20B, while tesla has a $700B market cap".

I am still contemplating whether i should invest some Money into Uranium. For now i think i be wating for Sprott to release its Physical Uranium Trust, then maybe some Shares of that. That will put me on the safe Side.
See: Uranium Participation Corporation to Form the Sprott Physical Uranium Trust
 
I was labeled a pattern day trader on Robinhood yesterday, said I was locked out for 90 days, but today I was able to buy and sell stocks. Not sure what has happened.
 

C-Note

Hummingbird
Gold Member
I think a couple of you have mentioned that you use exchange-traded funds (ETF) to invest in certain market sectors. I've been getting into mining penny stocks lately, but I'm also looking at mid-cap and large miners. Unfortunately, my Vanguard mutual funds aren't as invested in mining companies as I would like, since the funds stick mainly to companies trading on the NYSE, and many smaller mining companies are traded on overseas exchanges. Here are a few mining ETFs I've looked into:

- Amplify Lithium and Battery Technology (BATT)- Invests not only in companies mining lithium battery metals, but also companies that produce or research the batteries or use them, like Tesla. About 100 holdings.

- Global X Lithium and Battery Tech (LIT)- 40 holdings, including miners, battery producers, and users of the batteries. About 45% of this fund's holdings are in Chinese companies.

- VanEck Vectors Rare Earth/Strategic Metals (REMX)- 20 holdings in companies that mine, process, or recycle rare earths minerals.

- iShares MSCI Global Metals & Mining Producers (PICK)- 200 holdings in producers of any type of metal except gold, silver, and platinum

- SPDR S&P Metals and Mining (XME)- 25 holdings in mining and metals companies that trade on the US stock exchanges (too limited for me).

- Global X Copper Miners (COPX)- 33 holdings in copper mining companies.

- VanEck Vectors Gold Miners (GDX)- 52 holdings in gold and silver miners and traders, mainly large companies but some mid-caps.

- VanEck Vectors Junior Gold Miners (GDXJ)- 96 holdings with a lot of overlap with their GDX fund but includes some smaller companies.

- ETFMG Prime Junior Silver Miners (SILJ)- 49 holdings in mid-cap and large silver and gold miners, but focusing on silver

- Global X Silver Miners (SIL)- 40 holdings in mining companies that mainly produce silver, but some gold.

- iShares MSCI Global Gold Miners (RING)- 40 holdings in gold mining companies

- Sprott Gold Miners (SGDM)- 34 holdings in gold mining companies

- iShares Global Silver and Metals Miners (SLVP)- 31 holdings in silver miners.

- Sprott Junior Gold Miners (SGDJ)- 35 holdings in small or mid-cap gold miners

- US Global Go Gold and Precious Metals Miners (GOAU)- 28 holdings in large gold and silver miners

- Global X Gold Explorers (GOEX)- 50 holdings in gold and silver miners, including some smaller companies.

- Global X Uranium (URA)- 38 holdings in uranium miners and traders

- Amplify Pure Junior Gold Miners (JGLD)- 57 holdings in large and mid-sized gold miners

As you can see, there are less than 100 in-production precious metals mining companies in the world as it seems to be a tough business. None of these funds invests in mining companies that are still in the exploration stage, unless they already have interest in in-production mines (like Royal Gold). So, for exposure to larger mining and metals companies, these funds may be an easy way to get into it.

Because of the recent, two-week bull market, the prices for shares in these ETFs are at, or close to, their 52-week highs. So, I've watch-listed several of them (BATT, LIT, REMX, PICK, COPX, GDX, SILJ, URA, and JGLD) and may buy them when the price comes down a little.
 

tothepoint

Woodpecker
Not sure you can predict that but I mentioned RKT a couple times around here in November and I think December.
I will be checking it in the next few days but it's still not too late to get in. If it drops to 24 I would say that's a safe entry.

Another stock that could have a short squeeze in the future is CRSR. Anything mid to low 30s is a safe bet here. Solid company selling computer parts and peripherals that went public last year at $15 if I remember correctly. It quickly exploded to 50 then dropped. At the beginning of Feb when GME took off it went up from something like 38 to 47 then back down in just a few hours.

Lastly, I think NLS is also a good one to buy and hold nowadays. It has been going back and forth from the teens to the twenties for months. Seems to have a bottom at around 17.

Who listened and bought CRSR back in March ? It finally paid off :)
I can see it in the 50s before the end of the year.

I still believe in NLS, holding around 17 as predicted but requires more patience. RKT showing bullish signs as well, 24-25 should be achievable in the near future.

Among the EV crowd, I like XPEV and dropped 5000 euros last month at 31. It has been paying off nicely so far. If it manages to go past 43 then it will be on track for 50.

Almost sold SFT last month as it got dangerously close to my stop loss but seems it was actually a good entry point. Under 7 it is a good buy just like last year.
 
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Deepdiver

Crow
Gold Member
Gentlemen:

We have hit the CME cut-over date and all institutional volume is now trading on the ESU2021 Sept 21 contract.

This is the 90 Day March to June 2021 Trend Channel and 5 Fractal Elliott waves Chart.

Wave 5 is the most indeterminant with equal probability of Wave 5 = .618 times Wave one (Exceeded), 1.0 times wave 1 = target of 4292 next or 1.31, 1.41 or 1.51 times Wave 1.

The major psychological target within the 9 point range of the technical number is 4,300 which is where the major institutions have loaded up on short contracts for the next S&P ABC retrace to the .618 target of 3900 (The -25% Trend Line from the Green Mid line Channel Target Date June 30, 2021 to hit the 4,300 target top) then the shorter term ABC retrace to the 3,900 target.

Late Sept 2021 SPY PUT options from 4300 to target 3900 would be an economical way to capture 400 leveraged points.

This is NOT trading advice - trade at your own risk

1623780924705.png
 
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tothepoint

Woodpecker
Yes, looks like WSB is pushing it right now along with CLNE, WISH, WOOF, CLOV, and DKNG.

That didn't last long...Potential gains just went from 25% to 5%. Couldn't help but laugh when I saw that a pet store is listed as WOOF. No wonder the wsb crowd is jumping on this, fits right next to Dogecoin. Fuck logic, just go for the memes.
 
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Deepdiver

Crow
Gold Member
Fed Meeting results today is they will continue to remain accommodative until we reach "full employment" as the US Economy comes out of the Pandemic and that they now expect to raise % rates in 2023 from 0.1% to 0.6% possibly in two 0.25% increases however "The Fed will also continue to buy $120 billion in government-backed bonds each month, which keeps longer-term borrowing costs low and can bolster stock and other asset prices".


I expect a short term S&P ABC Correction as posted in the link below and a longer 12 Year Bull Run ABC correction as the current Administration continues its $6 Trillion in "infrastructure", "American Family Plan" and Green New Energy spending etc., proposals including new taxes likely to hammer most of the non-FAANG S&P and the smaller Russell 2000 Stocks.

For details see:

###
 

C-Note

Hummingbird
Gold Member
I've had several non-penny small and mid-cap mining stocks on my watchlist for a couple of months, but the prices haven't come down on any of them until today. Kinross Gold had a fire at the processing plant at one of its mines which stopped production and its share price immediately went down about a dollar today. So, I pulled the trigger on a few shares. This company puts out some serious Au, but I think it's high number of outstanding shares plus its debt is hurting its share price.

Kinross Gold- KGC (NYSE) $7.11, 16 June 2021

Outstanding Shares: 1.26b

Employees: ?

Market cap: 9.66b

Cash: 1b (900m debt)

Operations: All mines primarily produce gold. All 100% owned except for Chirano which is 90%.

1. Paracatu, Brazil- 126,547 oz in Q1 2021; expected mine life ends 2032

2. Kupol-Dvoinoye, Russia- 122,252 oz in Q1 2021; expected mine life ends 2025

3. Chulbatkan-Udinsk, Russia- Exploration phase; production start est. 2025

4. Tasiast, Mauritania- 88,964 oz in Q1 2021; processing plant currently undergoing modernization to be completed in 2023 which will increase throughput; a June 16, 2021 fire shut down the processing plant and Kinross has not yet said when production will resume.

5. Chirano, Ghana- 39,505 oz in Q1 2021; expected mine life ends 2025

6. Fort Knox, Alaska (AK)- 55,815 oz Q1 2021; Gil satellite pits expansion to begin production in Q4 2021 with est. 160k oz production over two years

7. Manh Cho (Peak), AK- In exploration stage; production start est. 2023

8. Round Mountain, Nevada (NV)- 74,286 oz in Q1 2021; possible expansion to begin Q2 2022

9. Bald Mountain, NV- 51,408 oz in Q1 2021

10. La Coipa, Chile- Old mine that is being prepared for restart and expansion by mid-2022

11. Lobo-Marte, Chile- Feasibility study results expected Q4 2021; production start est. 2027

Notes:

Company predicts it will produce 2.4m oz Au in 2021, 2.7m in 2022, and 2.9m in 2023. Has announced it will pay a $.03 per share quarterly dividend indefinitely. Earned a 1.3b net profit for 2020 and 150m net profit for Q1 2021. Company says its total average cost per oz for 2020 will be $1,025 vs an average predicted sales price of $1,500.

In contrast to the junior penny stock mining companies I’ve looked at, this company doesn’t appear to try to keep its debt as close to zero as possible, instead carrying a fairly high debt load. Is that normal for a mid-cap mining company? Their literature does not give any timeline or explanation for their debt-reduction strategy. Also, it seems to me that their outstanding shares amount is way too high and is greatly weakening their earnings-per-share. With as much gold as they’re producing, their stock price would be a lot higher if it wasn’t so diluted. I believe they would be better served doing a stock buy-back rather than paying a shareholder dividend.
 

C-Note

Hummingbird
Gold Member
Perhaps because of the drop in copper and gold prices over the past couple of days, there appears to be a big sell-off on mining stocks this morning. Of course, I don't know how long it will go on, but I'm hoping it will make some of the stocks and ETFs I've been watching retreat from the premium prices they've been demanding recently.
 
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