Stock Market thread

[Deepdiver]

Interesting charts - what the banks are actually doing with all the new Trillion$ the Fed has given them...

Charts That Should Scare the Pants Off the Fed (And Probably Do)

In an effort to stimulate bank lending and thus the economy, the Fed launched a massive QE program that lowered interest rates and crammed money into banks.

mishtalk.com

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[Blade Runner]

One of the predictions (I think by Luongo) in that recent Crypto Rich podcast is that the swing in 2022 will be so drastically back to the R that a new sheriff is in town and the order will be to taper, massively, in order to save the dollar and sink the rest of the world. Interesting though experiment, since it would also relatively sacrifice the boomers, which wouldn't be all that bad, join the club of losers that you were so happy to be taking advantage of, boomers and retirees.

 

[Monty_Brogan]

One of the predictions (I think by Luongo) in that recent Crypto Rich podcast is that the s

 

[Deepdiver]

Interesting demo of the Portfolio Armor app example hedge of Silver:



Can be applied to most securities even BTC and ETH futures that offer options...

 

[C-Note]

The last couple of days haven't been a big fire sale on stocks like we had the second week of April, except for a few like NMG. In fact, some mining stocks moderately rebounded after losing around 5-7%. However, the prices for gold, silver, and copper did not recover today. In fact, they finished the day a little lower than they started this morning. So, the selloff on stocks, especially mining stocks, may continue on Monday until the metal prices start rebounding, or at least hold steady.

 

[rainy]

Anyone here use dark pool software with block alerts?

 

[rainy]

Might want to give TRCH and it's 6/30 merger a look.

Shorts must cover prior to merger.

 

[Deepdiver]

The S&P Futures 30 Min, 8 Month and 12 Year 5 Waves all Topping into a Sub-Minor, Major and Super-Cycle Wave 2 ABC Correction... When both the 8 Month Major Cycle and 12 Year Super Cycles Correct it will take ALL Equities along for the ride so if you are not adept at Fractal Waves, Fibonacci and Support and Resistance Levels in order to accurately Short the Markets this is an excellent time to be in Cash at the multiple long and short term Swing Highs so you can preserve your capital to buy back in at the target technical Swing Lows...

Forearmed is Forewarned.

8 month ABC .618 Retrace Target = 3,900
12 Year ABC .618 Retrace target 2000 to 2100 Range...

Institutions now Staging in Massive Shorts (Futures, Options, LEAPS) at 3,300... to prepare for the Short and Long Term ABC corrections.

Friday 2 July 21 Noon NEW ALL TIME S&P Futures High in 5 waves from the 30 Min 200MA edge low...

Wave 1 36.25, Wave 3 = 1.618 times Wave 1
Wave 4 = Wave 2 and Wave 5 at .618 of 1 on the 4350 50s and 100s target
Indeterminant Wave 5 can further extend to 1.0, 1.31, 1.41 and 1.51 times wave 1 so equal probability of tagging 4350, 4400, 4450 or 4500.

Then 8 Month and 12 Year Wave 5 Top into Larger Wave 2 A-B-C corrections.

This is your Brain on Fibonacci...

30 Min S&P 5 Wave


8 Month S&P 5 Wave with .618 Fibonacci 3900 Retrace indicated.


12 Year S&P Futures ES1! Continuous Futures 5 Wave Weekly Chart with .618 Fibonacci 2000/2100 Retrace:



ENJOY THE 4th and ENJOY the RIDE!

 

[areyouaweir]

The S&P Futures 30 Min, 8 Month and 12 Year 5 Waves all Topping into a Sub-Minor, Major and Super-Cycle Wave 2 ABC Correction... When both the 8 Month Major Cycle and 12 Year Super Cycles Correct it will take ALL Equities along for the ride so if you are not adept at Fractal Waves, Fibonacci and Support and Resistance Levels in order to accurately Short the Markets this is an excellent time to be in Cash at the multiple long and short term Swing Highs so you can preserve your capital to buy back in at the target technical Swing Lows...

Forearmed is Forewarned.

8 month ABC .618 Retrace Target = 3,900
12 Year ABC .618 Retrace target 2000 to 2100 Range...

Institutions now Staging in Massive Shorts (Futures, Options, LEAPS) at 3,300... to prepare for the Short and Long Term ABC corrections.

Friday 2 July 21 Noon NEW ALL TIME S&P Futures High in 5 waves from the 30 Min 200MA edge low...

Wave 1 36.25, Wave 3 = 1.618 times Wave 1
Wave 4 = Wave 2 and Wave 5 at .618 of 1 on the 4350 50s and 100s target
Indeterminant Wave 5 can further extend to 1.0, 1.31, 1.41 and 1.51 times wave 1 so equal probability of tagging 4350, 4400, 4450 or 4500.

Then 8 Month and 12 Year Wave 5 Top into Larger Wave 2 A-B-C corrections.

This is your Brain on Fibonacci...

30 Min S&P 5 Wave
View attachment 31756

8 Month S&P 5 Wave with .618 Fibonacci 3900 Retrace indicated.
View attachment 31757

12 Year S&P Futures ES1! Continuous Futures 5 Wave Weekly Chart with .618 Fibonacci 2000/2100 Retrace:

View attachment 31758

ENJOY THE 4th and ENJOY the RIDE!

Can you dumb this down a bit for us non technical analysis folks? Are you saying we are expecting a correction/crash and if so, when?

 

[Deepdiver]

Can you dumb this down a bit for us non technical analysis folks? Are you saying we are expecting a correction/crash and if so, when?

All experienced Technical Analysts using Fractal Waves into Support and Resistance Levels with Fibonacci retrace analysis (Basically my Fractal and Fibonacci wave analysis charts) have been recommending to their clients and or audience that it is prudent to exit into CASH now to be prepared for the predicted and due ABC .618 Fibonacci retracement corrections (indicated above).

"When?" is less precise due to the multiple equal weighted probabilities of wave 5 targets being .618 or 1.0 or 1.31, 1.41 (1.38) or 1.51 times the first wave 1 of that degree continued to the smaller degree fractal waves until you determine the top turning hour and even minute for the Wave 5 Turn into the major ABC .618 Correction.

This is quite tedious and time consuming being a mathematical process of elimination of the incorrect solutions for the correct probabilities.

Plus the real world has invaded the Markets with the rabid anti Trumpism in the Beijing Biden CCP Crime Cartels disastrous decisions for the USA economy combined with Covid relief programs expiration. Fed unemployment bonus payments end July 31 and Foreclosure and Eviction forbearance end in September.

Both Main Street and the S&P 500 lesser known (Other than FAANGS) stocks will all feel the Corp Tax and Cap Gains Tax increases to a Bernie-Warren-AOC lefties 40% Corporate and individual Income and Capital Gains Federal plus State and local property Taxes all likely to rise to Maximum Socialists Leftist rates under the dark of night in "reconciliation process" budgets. Add to that the Physical and "Human" and Greenies Steals Deals infrastructure budget packages being demanded by the Dems Loonie Lefties (and many traditional Dem centrists hungry for pork to haul home this summer) taxes could exceed projections crippling the non FAANG S&P 500, Russell 2,000 and even the Fortune 500 due to the massive new Biden corp competition Executive Order covering all major industries from tech to food to airlines and travel.

With Congress on Summer recess expect all of this to be a massive Back to School Blue Light special in the Lefty Loonie Aisles which will crush all of the firms addicted to ZIRPs and Stock buybacks that have depleted their balance sheets aka also known as Rainy Day Funds.

Think of South Florida and witnessing an eerie calmness before a massive Cat 5 Storm surge.

Smart folks batten down the hatches and then promptly get out of Dodge before the SHTF.

HTH.

 

[MichaelWitcoff]

People who listened to me about stocks and crypto are having a much better year than people who didn't.

 

[Deepdiver]

Revised S&P 500 ES1! Weekly Continuous futures 12 year chart:

We have exceeded all 5th wave equal probabilities extensions except the last which we have just tested this week at 4,383.75

Wave 1 low 666 Week of 9Mar09
Wave 1 High 2134 Week of 18May15 Length 1,468

Wave 4 low 2174 Week of 23 Mar20

.618 of Wave 1 (1468) = 907 + Wave 4 low 2174 = 3081 exceeded
1.0 Wv1 = 1468 + 2174 =3642 exceeded
1.31 times Wv1 = 1923 + 2174 = 4097 exceeded
1.38 times Wv1 =2026 + 2174 = 4200 exceeded
1.51 times Wv1 =2217 +2174 = 4,391 within the 9 point range of the number of 4,400 the Herds Psychological Top Target as we just hit a new S&P Futures ATH of 4383.75 this week.

We are within a Cats whisker of the Markets Top. Smart cats have either sold to cash and or are shorting the markets NOW.

This is why all the institutions have been laddering in shorts from 4,300 to 4,400 in anticipation of the 8 Month 5 Wave top to ABC Correction to 3900 and over the next year accelerated by Beijing Biden's $6 Trillion in planned reconciliation Spending and $3 Trillion in Taxes to a 12 Year ABC .618 Correction 2,084 Target (Range of 2,000 to 2,100).

This is also why all the top Technical Analysts familiar with Fractal Waves and Fibonacci 5th Wave extensions and ABC retrace maths have advised all of their Clients and Audiences to sell ALL equities by now and hold cash or better yet hold cash and Short the SPY Puts to 390 on the 8 Month ABC by end of 2021 .618 Retrace and SPY Puts to 210 on the 12 Year .618 Retrace by end of 2022/early 2023:

Needless to say the Telegrammers, Redditeers and Robinhoodies who are still irrationally exuberant will be scrambling to cover their margin losses by selling everything, stocks, bonds, ETFs, Commodities and even cryptos too.

You now have foreknowledge based upon the technical science and mathematics of the markets.

Take action now to preserve your profits and your portfolios.

 

[Deepdiver]

Regarding my markets top post above see supporting videos from Greg Hunter's interviews with Charles Nenner former Goldman Sachs Fractal Markets Waves expert and consultant who advised all his clients go to Cash in their brokers Money Market Accounts a month ago. And this weeks interview with Clif High the AI-Predictive Linguistics inventor and big data analyst forewarning of markets corrections and societal disruptions this year at the hands of a clueless, inept CCP Beijing Biden misadministration...

Stock Market Cut in Half Soon – Charles Nenner | Greg Hunter’s USAWatchdog

By Greg Hunter’s USAWatchdog.com (Saturday Night Post) Renowned geopolitical and financial cycle expert Charles Nenner made a huge call at the end of January 2020. Nenner said, “I am more worried about the market going down 40% than making 5% more on the upside.” The market topped a few weeks...

usawatchdog.com

Hyperinflation Will Collapse Biden Administration – Clif High | Greg Hunter’s USAWatchdog

By Greg Hunter’s USAWatchdog.com Clif High is an Internet data mining expert who uses something he calls “Predictive Linguistics,” which sorts through billions of bits of information on the Internet to predict future trends and events. He has many well-documented correct predictions. High...

usawatchdog.com

 

[Pointy Elbows]

From a top wealth manager in our state: He's advised his clients to get out of the market, returning to invest in low-tech things like commodities, if not cash. He may be following lead of Nenner, et al (funny that we now find out that Gates has been buying farmland for years). Likewise sees a big drop this fall.

If they administratively reset Gold pricing (up), then federal balance sheets may level against debt, allowing a transition (maybe temporarily through a "currency basket") to Central Bank Digital Currencies, managed by Federal Reserves under the Bank of International Settlements. He estimated that the USG has 8000 tons of gold and is buying. Other sovereigns have also been buying lately. The market today crushed precious metals, another dip to buy.

We can't default. Inflating/printing is here to stay, but it can't keep up with rising welfare costs. They can't raise rates without crashing it all. Bitcoin and alt-coins are a wild card, but becoming more regulated. So they have to find some trickery to re-set the balance sheet. Apparently FDR did a similar event 6 months after he banned private ownership. Worked for FDR...

 

[Blade Runner]

From a top wealth manager in our state: He's advised his clients to get out of the market, returning to invest in low-tech things like commodities, if not cash. He may be following lead of Nenner, et al (funny that we now find out that Gates has been buying farmland for years). Likewise sees a big drop this fall.

If they administratively reset Gold pricing (up), then federal balance sheets may level against debt, allowing a transition (maybe temporarily through a "currency basket") to Central Bank Digital Currencies, managed by Federal Reserves under the Bank of International Settlements. He estimated that the USG has 8000 tons of gold and is buying. Other sovereigns have also been buying lately. The market today crushed precious metals, another dip to buy.

We can't default. Inflating/printing is here to stay, but it can't keep up with rising welfare costs. They can't raise rates without crashing it all. Bitcoin and alt-coins are a wild card, but becoming more regulated. So they have to find some trickery to re-set the balance sheet. Apparently FDR did a similar event 6 months after he banned private ownership. Worked for FDR...

Should I then get into cash even though I hold mostly commodity stocks and some crypto ETFs? I'm just wondering if the reasoning is that anything that is a financially traded device and not a precious metal or crypto self held, is what you should sell, ie paper "assets".

 

[Pointy Elbows]

Should I then get into cash even though I hold mostly commodity stocks and some crypto ETFs? I'm just wondering if the reasoning is that anything that is a financially traded device and not a precious metal or crypto self held, is what you should sell, ie paper "assets".

I do like commodity of any type (even commodity funds) but am personally avoiding stocks/paper now. I do have some crypto investment, but it is less than 5% of wealth. Crypto lounge guys will have much better opinions than me on crypto ETFs. Been a metals stacker for a while. Today's beating hurt, but I'm not about to unload it. That's a SHTF investment to me.

I have only heard one person to say get entirely out of dollar-denominated assets, including cash, and he's a big precious metals guy. Paper assets are too risky for me now.

 

[C-Note]

The market today crushed precious metals, another dip to buy.

Almost all mining stocks were down steeply today, not just precious metals but also base and battery metals. And, not just mining, but other small company stocks in other industries were also down. I would normally say that right now might be a good time to get into mining stocks and ETFs, but almost every time I say that, the market goes down even further.

If you want to get into a defensive position anticipating a market meltdown in the fall, then, based on my experience, simply rebalancing your portfolio will probably suffice. Depending on your age, if you want to have a 70-30 split of stocks and bonds, for example, then go ahead and move your money to meet that target. When/if the market crashes in the future, rebalance by moving cash from bonds into stocks. It's hard to predict the future, however. Remember that from 1997 to 2009 the market was basically flat. And yes, I know that bonds take a beating in an inflationary environment.

If you're investing for the long term, as in 30-40 years, then it really doesn't matter what the market does in the immediate future. Keep dollar cost averaging and the market will eventually recover.

 

[Deepdiver]

Ironically while the markets have tagged their technical top Bitcoin is forming a bottom around 31K with the primary wave 2 trading in a flat pattern building support for a primary impulsing wave 3 up but like I said up thread the telegrammers, rediteers, wallstretbetters and robinhoodies all inexperienced with major market cycle retraces and using call options and margin will all be facing margin calls and have to sell everything to cover their margin calls even cryptos when this market corrects hard to both short and long term .618 retrace targets I posted above. If you are not comfortable with late 2021 Spy 390 puts and late 2022 Spy 210 puts (Spy pricing is approx 1/10th of the S&P) then selling all paper assets and holding cash in your brokers money market funds is prudent now.

I even sold about $5,100 of my Pre 1964 Silver horde and a couple rolls of Sunshine Mint .999 Bullion Coins at $30 per 1 oz coin when silver was around $28.50 for a decent profit but I held them for about 5 years. I am anticipating a surge in silver industrial demand over the next year with the Lefties Green New Steel plans as EVs and Solar panels plus medical tech uses more silver than is currently being produced. The US mint is saying they can not source enough rounds to meet the demand for silver eagles. The local Coin shop is getting a $10 Distributor and $7 retailer premium for a total of $17.00 over silver melt values. I sold about 20 of my silver eagles that were Brilliant Uncirculated MS 69 and MS 70 coins for a better premium but my buyer said he wanted to buy some Kitco Canadian .9999 $5 1 oz Monster boxes for $17K each as they are out of stock on all .999 Canadian and US Silver Eagle monster boxes (500 1 oz Coins). Fear of SHTF is real.

I see all paper assets correcting with the markets even Mining stocks however when we hit the major .618 corrections especially when the S&P retraces to the technical target of $2,084 next year this will be a major buying opportunity for the best producing silver and gold junior and major miners. The most over priced stocks using the Buffet Dow/GDP ratio like the FANNGS will correct as well so being in cash in your brokers money market now will afford some major buying opps over the next year or so as the paper markets all correct hard.

 

[Pointy Elbows]

Ironically while the markets have tagged their technical top Bitcoin is forming a bottom around 31K with the primary wave 2 trading in a flat pattern building support for a primary impulsing wave 3 up but like I said up thread the telegrammers, rediteers, wallstretbetters and robinhoodies all inexperienced with major market cycle retraces and using call options and margin will all be facing margin calls and have to sell everything to cover their margin calls even cryptos when this market corrects hard to both short and long term .618 retrace targets I posted above. If you are not comfortable with late 2021 Spy 390 puts and late 2022 Spy 210 puts (Spy pricing is approx 1/10th of the S&P) then selling all paper assets and holding cash in your brokers money market funds is prudent now.

I even sold about $5,100 of my Pre 1964 Silver horde and a couple rolls of Sunshine Mint .999 Bullion Coins at $30 per 1 oz coin when silver was around $28.50 for a decent profit but I held them for about 5 years. I am anticipating a surge in silver industrial demand over the next year with the Lefties Green New Steel plans as EVs and Solar panels plus medical tech uses more silver than is currently being produced. The US mint is saying they can not source enough rounds to meet the demand for silver eagles. The local Coin shop is getting a $10 Distributor and $7 retailer premium for a total of $17.00 over silver melt values. I sold about 20 of my silver eagles that were Brilliant Uncirculated MS 69 and MS 70 coins for a better premium but my buyer said he wanted to buy some Kitco Canadian .9999 $5 1 oz Monster boxes for $17K each as they are out of stock on all .999 Canadian and US Silver Eagle monster boxes (500 1 oz Coins). Fear of SHTF is real.

I see all paper assets correcting with the markets even Mining stocks however when we hit the major .618 corrections especially when the S&P retraces to the technical target of $2,084 next year this will be a major buying opportunity for the best producing silver and gold junior and major miners. The most over priced stocks using the Buffet Dow/GDP ratio like the FANNGS will correct as well so being in cash in your brokers money market now will afford some major buying opps over the next year or so as the paper markets all correct hard.

Bitcoin has been bouncing from 31k to 39k for a while, so its ready for a breakout either way. Yeah, precious metal SHTF fear is real. Many of the wealthy guys I know have been stacking since last year's mega dip. They have good quality of life but want some stuff out of the electric economy.

Deepdiver has been pretty accurate with these things and his guidance aligns with other smart guys I follow. NavyNuke sub-mariners...

 

[Deepdiver]

BTC Volumes

Note that the BTCUSD Coinbase Weekly Sept 20 low volumes as BTCUSD was building for its Nov 20 to Apr 21 Bull Run and then low volumes at the top of the bull run and now the July 21 Low Volumes - this is a strong indicator of turning points due to the Herd's indecision before trading BTCUSD CME Futures (ETHUSD CME futures as well ) as well as actual BTC before the Primary Wave 1 Hard Top and now Wave 2 Hard Bottom building support for the turn into the impulsing primary Wave 3 UP. Yes this has my Stealth Advisor's attention as well. He is trading CME S&P daily at the 12 Year extreme Wave 5 multiple fractal degree Tops and the BTC CME Futures for the Bottom Primary Wave 2 Turn into the Wave 3 impulsing run up to the 1.618 Fibonacci Extension Target of $132.5K

Blue Horizontal lines are the Wave 1 Swing High and Wave 2 Swing low which are important support and resistance numbers. The Yellow Horizontal line is the 31.8K Weekly TPO line. Caveat we have just closed this week on the 50 Week Strong Moving Average and if we close below the 50 Week MA we could see a strong probability of testing the Red 200 WMA at 13.8K or if the 50 WMA holds this could be the beginning of the Primary Wave 3 Run up to the lofty Fibonacci Extension targets - therefore the low volumes this week as this BTCUSD indecision holds the herd of global traders at bay.

Fibonacci Extension Graph to the Moon on the left (3 Data Points 17Dec18 low to 12Apr21 High to 21 June 21 Low) and the Right Graph is the Fibonacci 2 data point retrace graph from the Primary Wave 2 swing low to the Primary Wave 1 swing high:




Whereas the ESU2021 S&P Futures Chart is indicating an 8 Month (and 12 Year) simultaneous Wave 5 Tops Turning into a shorter term .618 Fibonacci Retrace Horizontal Red Line at 3,900 the previous Wave 1 Strong Support Top. This week we tested the Blue 20 DMA on the lower Baseline of the Trend Chanel. Next we will test the 50 Yellow DMA and if we close below the 50 Daily then test the Red Weekly 200 at the .618 Retrace target of 3,900 by the end of 2021:

The is the 8 Month ESU2021 S&P Futures Chart illustrating the 5th Wave Technical 1.51% times wave 1 maximum technical extension Top Turn.

Who said Crazy Creepy Beijing Biden Commie Uncle Joe and his Commie AOC, Warren, Bernie BLM Squad sidekicks are bad for the economy?
Billions are to be made shorting this lipsticked pig of a market.