Stock Market thread

joost

Kingfisher
The last year I've been writing a good amount of SPY puts (and making nice money along the way) but never buying any. Very strongly considering rolling a portion of my profits into the 390 put. A correction of the S&P down to 3500 or lower is a real possibility.
Writing puts is a good way to buy stocks you’re interested in obtaining. You get a monthly income and worst-case scenario you obtain the stocks.

The trade you’re doing is profitable until a heavy market move occurs and you can get wiped (Losing 50%) by having to buy SPY.

Now we might get a new mask mandate, new variant who might push more government closing down the economy...

I prefer to write covered calls on stocks I don’t want to sell. So I don’t mind if they go lower.
Also I write puts on stocks I want to buy.
 

Pointy Elbows

Woodpecker
Orthodox
I never saw anyone answer my question regarding how many people they think truly will be affected severely by the vaxx ... but maybe I missed it. What's the general consensus around here, it will be noticeable or undeniable in 2022 (the major adverse effects)?
I believe late 2022 will be a good benchmark for undeniable side effect and their ratios to the general and vaxxed population. We are already seeing a difference in the January-vaxxed side effects compared to the April-vaxxed side effects from the Vaxx thread (info re adverse effects rates in Israel). If, in 3 months, the April-vaxxed are at similar adverse effects ratios to the current Jan-vaxxed rates, then we can infer there is a progression of adverse effects. Whether or not that increases or settles with time remains to be seen.

By late 2022, the hard non-vaxxers will have been well segregated. There will be a 1.5-2 year follow on study of Adverse Effects among the vaxxed at that point, and proper sample comparisons can begin.

Personally, I think major adverse effects will become noticeable by spring of 2022. The high-risk and elderly will be suffering adverse effects in undeniable numbers. Likewise, unvaxxed will be demonstrating ability to defend against the Nth variant. The math analysis won't catch up until fall 2022. Nothing meaningful will be done, math analysis-wise, before this time due to political pressures to hide adverse effects.

Total guess - I think 25-50% of vaxxed subjects will demonstrate adverse effects. About half of these side effects will be attributed to other causes, to keep vaxx-fear to a minimum. No way the real analysis catches up for the next year in this political climate.
 

Deepdiver

Crow
Gold Member
This is interesting - emerging market size numbers are literally out of this world...

https://www.techtimes.com/articles/...goldmine-asteroid-worth-quadrillions-2026.htm

NASA Might Not Want To Mine Asteroids, But A UK Company Does​

Psyche is far from the only asteroid that's made up of precious metals. Another one, called Asteroid 1986DA, is currently being eyed by a mining company from the UK. Assessed to be worth around $13 trillion, Asteroid 1986DA could be mined by the aptly named Asteroid Mining Corporation by 2027.

NASA wants to study, and not weirdly mine, a supposed $10 quadrillion worth asteroid.

According to a recent report by The Daily Star, NASA is planning to send an expedition to the asteroid Psyche 16 by 2026. But this asteroid is no mere giant space rock. As recent scans reveal, Psyche 16 is a 124 mile-wide 'gold mine' of a space rock containing as much as $10 quadrillion worth of precious metals.
 
This is interesting - emerging market size numbers are literally out of this world...

https://www.techtimes.com/articles/...goldmine-asteroid-worth-quadrillions-2026.htm

NASA Might Not Want To Mine Asteroids, But A UK Company Does​

Psyche is far from the only asteroid that's made up of precious metals. Another one, called Asteroid 1986DA, is currently being eyed by a mining company from the UK. Assessed to be worth around $13 trillion, Asteroid 1986DA could be mined by the aptly named Asteroid Mining Corporation by 2027.

NASA wants to study, and not weirdly mine, a supposed $10 quadrillion worth asteroid.

According to a recent report by The Daily Star, NASA is planning to send an expedition to the asteroid Psyche 16 by 2026. But this asteroid is no mere giant space rock. As recent scans reveal, Psyche 16 is a 124 mile-wide 'gold mine' of a space rock containing as much as $10 quadrillion worth of precious metals.
NASA mining such asteroids would send the message to the public that precious metals are important. I believe that 90% of the population does not even know what is a silver or gold coin is, let alone ever had it in their possession. The elites would be happy to keep the situation this way.
 

C-Note

Hummingbird
Gold Member
NASA mining such asteroids would send the message to the public that precious metals are important. I believe that 90% of the population does not even know what is a silver or gold coin is, let alone ever had it in their possession. The elites would be happy to keep the situation this way.
One thing I've noticed in studying small pharmaceutical and mining companies is that some of them are simply selling stocks to provide the company's officers with a six-figure salary, without any serious intention or chance of ever actually producing anything of value. I understand that there are several "asteroid mining" companies currently selling shares. Unless they get the backing of a heavyweight like Musk or Thiel, they probably aren't going anywhere, at least for 20-30 years.
 

Deepdiver

Crow
Gold Member
One thing I've noticed in studying small pharmaceutical and mining companies is that some of them are simply selling stocks to provide the company's officers with a six-figure salary, without any serious intention or chance of ever actually producing anything of value. I understand that there are several "asteroid mining" companies currently selling shares. Unless they get the backing of a heavyweight like Musk or Thiel, they probably aren't going anywhere, at least for 20-30 years.

I would ask myself who has the greatest demand for commodity resources and the technology and financial resources to mine Asteroids and glide them back into Earth near their factories???

I would be looking to buy into any serious FXI firms that invest in Asteroid Mining Companies and surf in their wake...

 

C-Note

Hummingbird
Gold Member
Looks like China is going to mine rare earths and battery metals in Afghanistan after the recent developments. I'm hoping that won't reduce future valuations on US and Canadian-based mines in those metals, but time will tell. Tesla stated last year that they want to purchase as much of their battery metals, especially nickel and lithium, as possible from North American mines. Tesla specifically said the US, but I hope they're also including Canada because there are some good prospects there as well.
 

Deepdiver

Crow
Gold Member
This newsletter just came in today:

Following the Smart Money

Regular readers know that we like to follow the “smart money.” One way we do this is by reading 13F reports.

All funds that have more than $100 million under management need to file a quarterly report with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC).

The SEC calls it a 13F filing. It requires large funds to disclose the stocks they own 45 days after every calendar quarter.

We’ve used this strategy to follow some of the world’s greatest investors, including David Tepper and Seth Klarman.

Recently, we dug through the report filed by Pickens’ fund—and there’s definitely a trend forming.

The oil tycoon is buying a special kind of company called a master limited partnership, or MLP.

(Due to ailing health, Pickens has closed his fund. He’s converted his holdings to a family office structure. But the fund still needs to file a 13F report.)

An MLP is a unique corporate structure that doesn’t pay taxes. The caveat is that the company must return at least 90% of profits to investors (who then pay taxes). This structure makes MLPs attractive to investors looking for high yields.

However, as we’ve written elsewhere, rising interest rates have hurt high-yielding investments. MLPs have been swept up in the mix.

But maybe T. Boone Pickens is telling us that now’s the time to get in…

Now, we don’t know why Pickens started buying MLPs. He’s been a lot less vocal since paring down his fund. But I imagine he’s seeing the same things we are.

Last month, we told you U.S. oil production is ramping up and that it would be good for frackers.

As we wrote then, U.S. frackers are pumping more oil than ever. But they can’t increase production because pipelines are at max capacity. New pipelines are in the works… But they take time to build.

Pipeline companies are aware of the shortage—and they’re capitalizing on the increased demand.

We’ll see pipeline companies charge higher transport fees. And when that news gets out, their shares will move higher. The fat yields they pay will just be a cherry on top.

If you want to follow a legendary oil speculator, here are the eight largest positions in his portfolio:

Company/Ticker

Andeavor Logistics ANDX

TC PipeLines TCP

Enbridge Energy Partners EEP

Kinder Morgan KMI

EQT Midstream Partners EQM

Shell Midstream Partners SHLX

Targa Resources TRGP

MPLX LP MPLX

The best oil investor of our generation has vetted these companies. So if you’re excited about the U.S. oil boom, I’d start my research with this list.

Take away: Hedge Fund 13F reports are your friends.

###
 

C-Note

Hummingbird
Gold Member
One of the easiest ways to invest in large lithium producers are the two main lithium ETFs:

1. BATT- Amplify Lithium and Battery Tech
2. LIT- Global X Lithium and Battery Tech

If you would rather invest in the individual companies yourself, you can look at the holdings of each of those two funds and pick and choose.

As far as small/junior/exploratory lithium companies, I have bought shares in the following:

- E3 Metals
- Lithium Americas
- Megawatt Lithium and Battery Metals
- Millennial Lithium (this company will cease to exist before the end of this year as I explained above)
- Standard Lithium
- United Lithium

Make sure you do your own research on the companies I listed above, as companies that have yet to produce any actual lithium are higher on the risk scale.
I just saw this article:

There are several companies trying to develop lithium mines in the Salton Sea, California area, including EnergySource, Lilac Solutions/Breakthrough Energy Solutions, Controlled Thermal Resources, and Berkeshire Hathaway. Only the latter is a public company.
 
Question for you guys. I have been trading the stock market for the past year, heavily. Basically I have a remote engineering job and have been trading all day. I am well aware we are in a crazy bull market and that whatever gains I'm making now are not typical prior to COVID. I am not someone who has only traded meme stocks, I have legitimately spent time learning about options and detailed investment strategies. My prime strategy is scalping quality stocks with high IV these days.

Since the mandates may go into effect, I'm starting to consider letting my employer fire me if worst comes to worst. My current situation is that I live with parents (this was supposed to temporary due to COVID), and have very few financial obligations.

My question is this - is it unreasonable to expect to make $1000/week in the markets as a trader, in a regular market? I would be trading with $25-30k in capital. There have been many days over the past year where I have made $1000+ in a single day, and currently for me to make just $200/day is not a huge challenge. I can sustain myself on very little, but I just don't have the experience of trading in a "normal" market to know how difficult things are.

I would imagine that in a normal market, implied volatility is reduced somewhat, that volume isn't as high, etc, but I just don't see the markets going back to that in the near future. The past year has introduced a ton of liquidity to the markets both in the form of institutions as well as retail traders. Is my plan feasible?
 
Day trader here. Averaging around 70k/year income right now, but getting better as time progresses. Recently started exploring options in order to sell premiums (cash secured or even naked puts) in order to have another stream of income.


I think $1k a week is very doable even in a "normal" market. I think what is "normal" in the market has significantly changed over the past 2-3 years.

While retail trading may slow down a bit, I don't see it taking a massive plunge. The rise of user friendly mobile trading apps has transformed trading from something "old wealthy" do into something that is fun, trendy, and easily accessible.

A huge catalyst is transaction free trading as well. No longer do you get hit with $7 or more fees on BOTH sides of the transaction. That doesn't sound like much, but zero transaction fees really opens the doors to small account traders.

Think of this: some 19yo kid sees some random tik tok video about some guy yoloing AMC. That 19yo kid can download robinhood (or other similar app), link his bank account, and place a transaction free trade within minutes of seeing that video.

Finally we have had big advancements in automated algorithmic trading by the big boys.

Regardless with the technological and social changes over the past 2-3 years I think if you can make money now, you will be able to make money 1,2,3, etc more years from now just as well.
 

C-Note

Hummingbird
Gold Member
One of the small lithium companies I profiled a couple of months ago, Millennial Lithium (MLNLF), a Canadian company, is being 100% acquired by Ganfeng Lithium (XSHE), a Chinese company. Ganfeng will purchase all outstanding shares in MLNLF for $2.83 a share. The current value of the shares is 2.75 and the sale will occur before the end of this calendar year.

I had bought my shares at an average share price of $2.45, so I'll make a little money off the deal, but not that much. I'm disappointed, because I thought the company had great potential, as they appear to have a solid lithium prospect in Argentina and were one of the few prospective lithium companies I had found that had a low number of outstanding shares plus a detailed public mining plan, including hard dates for when they expected to be in full production. I guess the Chinese company recognized the same attractive qualities in the company that I observed and they're acting on it.
Update on this company: An unnamed buyer just raised on Ganfeng by offering $3.85 for all of MLNLF's shares with a purchase date of early December. Ganfeng has 10 days to respond. So, looks like I'll make a little more on this investment, but probably still not as much if the company had stayed independent. I think their share price could have easily reached into the $20-50 range in about three years or so.

Battery metals miners, lithium in particular, did fairly well over the past week. I'm looking to speculate in a few other exploratory lithium companies, namely Alpha (APHLF), American (LIACF), Pure Energy Minerals (PEMIF), and Noram (NRVTF) but I'm hoping their prices will come down a little before I buy.
 
Day trader here. Averaging around 70k/year income right now, but getting better as time progresses. Recently started exploring options in order to sell premiums (cash secured or even naked puts) in order to have another stream of income.


I think $1k a week is very doable even in a "normal" market. I think what is "normal" in the market has significantly changed over the past 2-3 years.

While retail trading may slow down a bit, I don't see it taking a massive plunge. The rise of user friendly mobile trading apps has transformed trading from something "old wealthy" do into something that is fun, trendy, and easily accessible.

A huge catalyst is transaction free trading as well. No longer do you get hit with $7 or more fees on BOTH sides of the transaction. That doesn't sound like much, but zero transaction fees really opens the doors to small account traders.

Think of this: some 19yo kid sees some random tik tok video about some guy yoloing AMC. That 19yo kid can download robinhood (or other similar app), link his bank account, and place a transaction free trade within minutes of seeing that video.

Finally we have had big advancements in automated algorithmic trading by the big boys.

Regardless with the technological and social changes over the past 2-3 years I think if you can make money now, you will be able to make money 1,2,3, etc more years from now just as well.

Were you making $70k prior to the pandemic? If so, how did your gains change after the pandemic hit?

My issue is that everywhere I read online about trading (and for whatever reason, lots of sources are based on prepandemic conditions), people make it out to be some mythical task where they say 95% of traders are not profitable and that you should try to keep a minimum of $100,000+ to trade.. I don't know if it's because prepandemic, mplied volatility is low and the vast majority of shares traded are institutional which means it's done by algorithmic traders hence it being impossible to use technical analysis to spot trends and whatnot, or something else.

I know back in February of this year when everything was crashing, it's as if all the liquidity got sucked out of the market and nothing at all was moving, I made hardly any money then and felt like quitting. I wonder if that's what things were like prepandemic? If those are typical market conditions I can see why people are highly critical of trading.

Or maybe people discourage it because most traders have no clue what they're doing? No understanding of options, support/resistance levels, basic chart patterns, option flow, risk management, regulation of emotions, monitoring funds like SPY/QQQ/VIX as a general guide of where the market is going, etc? Where ever I look, nobody seems to encourage trading at all, especially not as a primary source of income. The only people who do encourage it are the guys on youtube trying to make money from their videos.
 
Last edited:

Tactician

Kingfisher
Gold Member
Hey, remember Grayscale Btc Trust issuing shares to buy a ton of Btc (which can't be redeemed for self-custodied Btc, thus limiting sell pressure)? Remember how this hoarding of a scarce asset contributed to a massive increase in Bitcoin price, which increased Grayscale's share price, which attracted more investors, which allowed Grayscale to issue more shares to buy more Bitcoin, which repeated the whole cycle & helped generate a massive bullrun?

Well, Sprott Physical Uranium Trust (ticker is u.un on the Toronto exchange) is gobbling up a TON of uranium which cannot be redeemed for physical uranium. The above process should play out similarly, but a big difference is many utilities companies are forced to buy uranium & these guys are going to get squeezed as they're all implicitly short uranium + utility guys aren't traders so prices might be much higher before they react. Luckily, these utilities are probably govt owned so they'll have access to those juicy tax dollars.

Do whatever you want with this info, but it may be VERY worthwhile to check out some uranium stocks, such as CCJ, URA, or LEU, just as examples. As of this post, the uranium spot price has hit 5+ year highs. Should you decide to get long, this theme is likely a multi-month to one year+ trade, so taking a 'starter position' & adding if it bears fruit is viable. Cheers.

Credit to @hkuppy on Twitter for this theme. Kuppy is a cool cat.
 
Top