Stock Market thread

Blade Runner

Ostrich
Orthodox
Hey, remember Grayscale Btc Trust issuing shares to buy a ton of Btc (which can't be redeemed for self-custodied Btc, thus limiting sell pressure)? Remember how this hoarding of a scarce asset contributed to a massive increase in Bitcoin price, which increased Grayscale's share price, which attracted more investors, which allowed Grayscale to issue more shares to buy more Bitcoin, which repeated the whole cycle & helped generate a massive bullrun?

Well, Sprott Physical Uranium Trust (ticker is u.un on the Toronto exchange) is gobbling up a TON of uranium which cannot be redeemed for physical uranium. The above process should play out similarly, but a big difference is many utilities companies are forced to buy uranium & these guys are going to get squeezed as they're all implicitly short uranium + utility guys aren't traders so prices might be much higher before they react. Luckily, these utilities are probably govt owned so they'll have access to those juicy tax dollars.

Do whatever you want with this info, but it may be VERY worthwhile to check out some uranium stocks, such as CCJ, URA, or LEU, just as examples. As of this post, the uranium spot price has hit 5+ year highs. Should you decide to get long, this theme is likely a multi-month to one year+ trade, so taking a 'starter position' & adding if it bears fruit is viable. Cheers.

Credit to @hkuppy on Twitter for this theme. Kuppy is a cool cat.
I already owned quite a few and some small company speculations. Been on this trade for over 2 years, and was expecting to hold long term anyway. Like Kuppy, I think it is still a great trade to pile in on, because momentum is there and it's a proven move that will continue, as evidenced by your points.
 
Were you making $70k prior to the pandemic? If so, how did your gains change after the pandemic hit

I was in the market, but I did not day trade pre-pandemic. I started day trading in november, and basically went full time in March.

Regarding the 95% of traders fail statistic I think your thoughts are spot on. Most traders lack the basic fundamentals, they do not understand risk/reward, and they lack the discipline needed to be consistently successful.

A lot seem to want to chase the homerun trades too. They are influenced by the twitter posts and youtube videos of guys that make 10k+ a day. They get greedy and don't lock in profits. I was like that too at first, now I just chase base hits....a hundred bucks here, a couple hundred there, $50 scalp, those small plays add up.

Another factor is lack of overall understand of the forces that are driving the market. Like you said, it's scary how few people in my trading group activrly monitor the SPY, QQQ, VIX, etc. They don't keep track of the sectors or the daily major market events (Like jobs reports, PPI numbers, FOMC meetings, etc). They just seem to show up, look at what others call out for the day, and try to ride their coattails.

And finally I think all of that leads to an inability to be flexible and work different strategies. A lot of the guys I know only focus on low float momentum plays. That's great as they can be really lucrative (also really risky), but on the days we don't have any low float runners they have nothing to do. I'll play the low float runners, large cap earnings, indices (alternating SPXL/SPXS and grabbing UVXY), and started selling options for premium. That flexibility allows me have many more options in any given intraday session.

I also always track market internals such as UVOL-DVOL, ADD, TRIN, TICK, etc. One one screen I have the charts for all thr sectors and an advancing/declining chart for them. I use those to try to tell if I really should buy the intraday dip on SPY or go SPXS and UVXY.

I understand your feelings about being apprehensive about your ability to post gains outside of this crazy bull market, I have those feelings too. However I feel like the market always gives you opportunities, you just have to be flexible enough to be able to identify and adapt to changing market conditions
 
Another thing i think that skews that 95% number is time frame. Seems like many people jump into day trading with a get rich quick mentality. Most don't last more than a month or two. I treat it as long term educational process akin to a 4 year degree. So I consider myself still in my freshman year of full time trading.

If you take a trader that fails after a month and count that into the 95% statistic, that's basically like taking a college freshman and dropping them directly into a full time industry position and seeing what the failure rate is.
 

Tactician

Kingfisher
Gold Member
Re: Uranium stuff. I think the wallstreetbets guys caught wind of this. News spreads fast. Base case was a solid uptrend, best case is now an insanity squeeze. Here's a 30 second vid:
 

SlickyBoy

Hummingbird
This might be an upopular opinion, but with the growth of cryptos, it just seems stupid to compete in a saturated equities market where you don't have the opportunity to take advantage of inefficiencies before some quant working for Goldman Sachs beats you to it. And day trading is a major waste of time with even more risk than boring dollar cost averaging into an index fund.

People pull their hair out chasing 5% returns in stocks when returns of three to four times that in crypto are not unrealistic, even approaching it conservatively. If, given the same startup amount, all you did was buy some ETH and BTC and forget about it for five years you'd be further ahead than you would be hanging around WSB looking for the next Gamestop.
 
This might be an upopular opinion, but with the growth of cryptos, it just seems stupid to compete in a saturated equities market where you don't have the opportunity to take advantage of inefficiencies before some quant working for Goldman Sachs beats you to it. And day trading is a major waste of time with even more risk than boring dollar cost averaging into an index fund.

People pull their hair out chasing 5% returns in stocks when returns of three to four times that in crypto are not unrealistic, even approaching it conservatively. If, given the same startup amount, all you did was buy some ETH and BTC and forget about it for five years you'd be further ahead than you would be hanging around WSB looking for the next Gamestop.
Hindsight is 20/20. Some people dont like the level of risk, lack of underlying value, and extreme volatility of the crypto market.
 

SlickyBoy

Hummingbird
It isn't hindsight for someone starting today.

I beg to differ on the lack of underlying value. Sure, there's plenty of projects that promise a lot and have yet to deliver, some never will. But saying it has lack of value as a category is something the post office probably said about email in the 1990s.

That volatility is where you find your opportunities, but yeah, I get the fear factor. As the market matures the volatility will subside to similar levels as equities, but then so will the advantage you can have if you are early enough to understand what's going on and take action.
 

SingularityOne

Robin
Orthodox
Are you still chasing RLFTF? Up and down but taken a beating mostly.
Yes. EUA imminent and conference tomorrow with the TESICO trial head on the panel. If this therapeutic doesn’t go through I will know 100% that the FDA is doomed and corrupted 100%. Not that I don’t already know that it is... but this will amaze me if it doesn’t get EUA yesterday.

I think the FDA will approve it to cover themselves and make themselves look good. The fall is coming and they need to cover themselves due to remdesivir not working (recent lancet study detailing that if you search for it).
 

tothepoint

Woodpecker
This might be an upopular opinion, but with the growth of cryptos, it just seems stupid to compete in a saturated equities market where you don't have the opportunity to take advantage of inefficiencies before some quant working for Goldman Sachs beats you to it. And day trading is a major waste of time with even more risk than boring dollar cost averaging into an index fund.

People pull their hair out chasing 5% returns in stocks when returns of three to four times that in crypto are not unrealistic, even approaching it conservatively. If, given the same startup amount, all you did was buy some ETH and BTC and forget about it for five years you'd be further ahead than you would be hanging around WSB looking for the next Gamestop.

It's quite foolish to compare crypto returns in the past 5 years with the stock market and claim that crypto is better.
I'm quite sure you can find a couple hundred penny stocks that have had massive returns in the past 5 years as well. How are they different than crypto ? Lack of media attention ? There are plenty of high risk high reward options out there, crypto is just one of them.

I would also revise that 5%, NASDAQ has tripled since 2016.

Imo, crypto is quite mature at this point. BTC has been around for what ? 12-15 years now ? In this era of technology that's a long time yet you still can't buy anything with it. The appeal of anonymity and true freedom is gone once you have to exchange it for fiat. At least with stocks I don't have to worry about taxes. I just review my movements once a year and make sure they are all accounted for. To declare my crypto I had to find a tax advisor who was not a complete moron, I asked 3 different people and got 3 different answers.
 
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SlickyBoy

Hummingbird
It's quite foolish to compare crypto returns in the past 5 years with the stock market and claim that crypto is better.
I'm quite sure you can find a couple hundred penny stocks that have had massive returns in the past 5 years as well. How are they different than crypto ? Lack of media attention ? There are plenty of high risk high reward options out there, crypto is just one of them.

I would also revise that 5%, NASDAQ has tripled since 2016.

Imo, crypto is quite mature at this point. BTC has been around for what ? 12-15 years now ? In this era of technology that's a long time yet you still can't buy anything with it. The appeal of anonymity and true freedom is gone once you have to exchange it for fiat. At least with stocks I don't have to worry about taxes. I just review my movements once a year and make sure they are all accounted for. To declare my crypto I had to find a tax advisor who was not a complete moron, I asked 3 different people and got 3 different answers.
Better for what purpose? If you're talking opportunities for maximum gain, it's no contest. Enjoy your 5% or whatever a year in the equities.

The crypto market isn't even close to mature. Bitcoin came out in 2009. Do you still have your cell phone from back then? That gives you an idea of what they've learned about technology since those early days. BTC is hardly the only blockchain and doesn't even have its own ecosystem. It was hailed as a way to pay each other with blockchain currency, but now nobody does that since they realize the transaction speed isn't good and it's better off as a store of value. Institutions and individuals way richer than I will ever be realized this and piled in - quietly - in the hopes of not creating too big a price stampede. They continue to do so.

Meanwhile many projects came out with technology and purposes far beyond whatever the original BTC creators could have imagined.

Categorically comparing crypto (useful technology) to penny stocks (95%+ scam companies that never produce anything) is facile enough but naive. What penny stock did JPMorgan, Fidelity, Blackrock, Paul Tudor Jones etc, etc every feel compelled to put their money into? Which penny stock ever produced an actual product that moved the company beyond penny stock status (I can think of only one - True Religion Jeans).

I admit, frequently buying and selling crypto creates tax headaches virtually requiring the use of specialized software. Ok, so what? So does income tax, which is why I use similar software that integrates with the crypto tax software I use. I'm not sure what you mean about not worrying about taxes with stocks - you still pay when you realize a gain. The easiest way to avoid tax headaches is to buy and hold, or just avoid making money in the first place, if that's your chief worry.

Bookmark this post and check back in five years. In the meantime buy a little BTC and just forget about it for a while. You'll thank me.
 

C-Note

Hummingbird
Gold Member
Fortunately, it appears that the Biden Administration, as incompetent as it is, has continued the Trump Administration's project of promoting the development of rare earths mining in the US. Rare Element Resources (REEMF), a rare earths mining company based in Wyoming that I've mentioned before, recently finalized their agreement with the Department of Energy (DoE) to receive a $22 million grant to build a small-scale "demonstration" rare earths processing plant at their mine location. Their stock price has jumped as a result. According to their news release, they hope to have plant in operation in about 40 months.

Over the past week or so, REEMF's stock price has risen from $1.20 to 2.50. I expect it will probably stay around the 2.50-3.00 price range for the next 2-3 years until their plant is completed and they start producing some marketable metals. If the plant is successful and rare earths are still in as much demand as they are now, then it wouldn't surprise me if their stock price jumps to around $10 or more.

USA Rare Earths, a private company that is partnered with public Texas Minerals Resources (TMRC), is presumably also developing their rare earths motherlode in Texas in conjunction with negotiations with the DoE for some kind of incentive grant. TMRC's stock price has not appreciably changed recently, but once they make a similar announcement their stock price will likewise likely jump.
 

C-Note

Hummingbird
Gold Member
Revance Therapeutics (NASDAQ: RVNC) is developing a competitor for Botox. Over the weekend, it announced that the FDA denied approval for their product, called DaxibotulinumtoxinA, not because it was ineffective, but because the FDA disapproved of RVNC's manufacturing lab. Their stock price fell from $26 to below 14. It does not appear that the FDA is telling them they have to redo their Phase 3 trial for the product. So, if RVNC can fix their manufacturing deficiency, they may still be on track to get their product to market sometime late next year and thus this might be a good time to pick up their shares on sale.
 

tothepoint

Woodpecker
RVNC was a good call. I put it on my list to do some DD but feels like I missed the train yesterday.

The crypto market isn't even close to mature. Bitcoin came out in 2009. Do you still have your cell phone from back then?

Categorically comparing crypto (useful technology) to penny stocks (95%+ scam companies that never produce anything) is facile enough but naive. What penny stock did JPMorgan, Fidelity, Blackrock, Paul Tudor Jones etc, etc every feel compelled to put their money into? Which penny stock ever produced an actual product that moved the company beyond penny stock status (I can think of only one - True Religion Jeans).

I don't care much about what institutions are buying nowadays. Didn't a bunch of them invest in Theranos ?
I like to do my own research and decide on a strategy that makes sense for me. Spending time on building a portfolio is probably not very appealing to most people, it's not easy and very time consuming so much easier to throw your money in some popular YOLO tickers and forget about it. Problem is that it's not so easy to make back that money. I want to work less as I get older not more to make up for stupid decisions.

If you were in crypto 10 years ago and make a bunch of easy money then going all in with your profits in that space makes sense. For someone who has worked during that time to save up, I just don't think it's smart to apply the same strategy. Got 5000 EUR saved up and you're 20? Sure, go all in crypto, you got time. Doing that at 40 with 500000 EUR is just stupid.

Crypto is very similar to penny stocks, the underlying value is just promises. One penny stock rises above the rest once in a while and gains some legitimacy just like BTC did among the thousands of shit coins. I would argue that BTC exploded in value in the past years because of media exposure not because anything fundamental changed about it. Your analogy with the phone doesn't really work for BTC. What is better about BTC now vs 2009 ? The potential for future gains is lower, you have to declare it, you still have to go through some semi-legit broker to buy it, it's harder to mine etc. Oh and you still can't straight up use it to buy anything in the real world without converting it to toilet paper money. My 2021 phone is definitely better than 2009.
 

C-Note

Hummingbird
Gold Member
RVNC was a good call. I put it on my list to do some DD but feels like I missed the train yesterday.
I'm starting to learn better how this game is played. On Thursday when the news initially emerged that RVNC might have some trouble, their shares dropped to $19, so I put in an after-hours one-day limit buy for 20. But then their shares rebounded to 23 on Friday and my order didn't execute. So, over the weekend I put in a 60-day limit buy at 20 just in case. Their share prices crashed to 13 and change on Monday, and whatever algorithm Vanguard uses purchased my shares at 14.70. The price has since gone back up to around 17. If the company doesn't announce any more bad news, then as you say that train may now be gone. We'll see.

I think this possibly is a situation that illustrates that a buy and hold strategy on stocks is not really gambling. You're looking at the situation and making educated guesses based on what you see.
 
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tothepoint

Woodpecker
Seems that it's going back down slowly. I don't touch it unless it has 2 green days in a row. There's a good 3-day rule out there but nowadays things are moving so fast that 2 days is enough.

I have my eyes on PYPL: went down hard because they are looking to buy Pinterest. Not sure why they would do that and seems that many investors share the same opinion. There was huge volume the past couple days. The deal may not go through anyway so right now looks like a overreaction. There is potential for a quick 10% here if it holds around 245.
This situation reminds me of CRM when they bought Slack last year. I didn't jump in because I thought Slack is dead. I don't know any large corporations that use it. Apparently it didn't turn out so bad.

CRSP starts to be attractive here as well, although I'm not sold on their product. Cathy Woods seems to like it though.

I'm still bullish on CRSR although this one has taken a serious beating. It's at the top of short seller's list and they announced lower guidance due to supply chain issues. Demand is still there though. The good news is that next year chip production capacity should increase as many factories will be coming online. Anything under 30 is a good deal imo, charts seems to agree current price is the bottom.

NLS moved up nicely yesterday. Unfortunately this one and PTON are suffering due to decreasing demand. I really thought that people would stay at home instead of migrating back to the cities. Normies are eager to go back to the office and to sweaty gyms.
 
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The Beast1

Peacock
Gold Member
This might be an upopular opinion, but with the growth of cryptos, it just seems stupid to compete in a saturated equities market where you don't have the opportunity to take advantage of inefficiencies before some quant working for Goldman Sachs beats you to it. And day trading is a major waste of time with even more risk than boring dollar cost averaging into an index fund.

People pull their hair out chasing 5% returns in stocks when returns of three to four times that in crypto are not unrealistic, even approaching it conservatively. If, given the same startup amount, all you did was buy some ETH and BTC and forget about it for five years you'd be further ahead than you would be hanging around WSB looking for the next Gamestop.
I feel and agree with you. Unfortunately, I have cash stuck in retirement accounts that forces me to play the boomer (((stock))) market game. The upside however is there are now crypto ETFs that have been pumping. I'll throw cash into these and hope for the best.

Fun story, I poo poo'd bitcoin and was a proud no coiner for years. I read about Bitcoin in the spring of 2009 on Slashdot and came to the conclusion that it was an interesting solution in search of a problem. I found the anonymous nature of its developer off putting and is something I still don't trust.

I finally relented on my no-coiner ways when I discovered Nexo and its amazing deposit rates for stable coins and the like. This was when I discovered, "utility tokens" or coins used by crypto companies for various things.

If you notice, those utility tokens are all properly registered securities with the SEC something many other altcoins, bitcoin, and ethereum cannot claim. It's not hard to do this either but requires some sort of "management face".

To me, BTC is a proof of concept nothing more. It's taken on a life of its own and it's holding back the wider crypto field, especially NFTs . Crypto is still very very green and the regulatory environment is dangerously in flux.

However the Feds decide to regulate Crypto is going to cause all sorts of whiplashing in price action across the board (positively or negatively). For me, I'm most comfortable in utility coins that have a management team that has properly registered their securities. Nexo's token has done that and is netting me a nice 10% APY in a 3 month CD. That's good enough for me.
 

C-Note

Hummingbird
Gold Member
I'm still bullish on CRSR although this one has taken a serious beating. It's at the top of short seller's list and they announced lower guidance due to supply chain issues. Demand is still there though. The good news is that next year chip production capacity should increase as many factories will be coming online. Anything under 30 is a good deal imo, charts seems to agree current price is the bottom.
I was about to post about Corsair. I figured they were being shorted which was depressing their stock price. I bought the dip and expect their price to recover back into the 30s eventually. Because of the short action on them, I was hoping WSB might meme them upwards, but it appears they have their minds on other stocks right now. If they are being heavily shorted, I'm surprised the short sellers are targeting them, because they should know that WSB is watching that stock.
 

tothepoint

Woodpecker
I see a lot of angry bag holders on reddit but since the volume is so low it wouldn't take much to push it higher. I don't keep my hopes up for that though, just waiting to see if I should dollar cost average from the low 30s, it has to hold 24-26 otherwise it can even sink to the IPO price.
This was never going to be a 10x or even 5x stock but all the signs were there for a quick and easy profit at 50.

Another stock that is worth a look for gaming enthusiasts is UBI.PA. 2 year low reached this week with more pain to come. I think low 40s would be a safe bet.
 
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