Stock Market thread

MartyMcFly

Ostrich
Other Christian

Australia Sucks

Kingfisher
Other Christian
I would feel guilty investing in Coca-Cola due to their awful values. I sold off Disney and Kraft stock due to my reduced tolerance of woke garbage (as well as those companies going very crazy in pushing their woke agenda).

I do have money in ETFs which do have bad companies and I have Chinese stocks (which follow government policies of censorship), so I am not pure. However, it would bother me to buy stocks that are so blatantly hateful of basic decent values. Coke doesn't have to have bad values, it chooses to.


9. Coca-Cola aired ads in Hungary featuring same-sex couples kissing.

Coca-Cola ran ads in Hungary of same-sex couples kissing and holding Coke products as part of their “Love is Love” campaign. István Boldog, a Hungarian member of Parliament, called for Hungarians to boycott Coca-Cola until the ads were removed. Tens of thousands of Hungarians signed a petition calling for the removal of the ads. Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban opposes the legalization of same-sex marriage, which is currently legal in Hungary.
The reality is there are very few large corporations that aren't doing things that are morally reprehensible. If you want to look at things through tat lens perhaps the stock market isn't the place for you to invest. If you go down that rabbit hole you may as well become Amish.

Lets look at a few examples:
-Large pharmaceutical companies don't even get me started on the Covid vaccines.
-Consumer food and beverage companies are selling products filled with high fructose corn syrup and seed oils, etc
-Tech/internet companies like Meta, Alphabet, etc de-platforming people, pushing woke leftist agendas and being used by governments as a back door to spy on citizens.
-Media companies like Disney pushing woke agendas to kids in their cartoons and movies
-Oil fracking companies contaminating the water supply of small communities and destroying/polluting their farms, etc

The reality is that at this point you would be hard pressed to find a large corporation that is not somehow evil, let alone enough to fill an investment portfolio. I invest in stocks. You just have to accept that companies will do things you do not agree with and you cannot control it. It is just the system we live in. Accept it or go Amish.
 

Australia Sucks

Kingfisher
Other Christian
There're cycles they can't control, only delay. Secular bear market is due, which may include more than one recession. Under Trump enormous amount of dollars had been printed and dollar had been devalued at speed unknown before, inflation that started later is just the aftermath of that dollar emission.
That's not inflation adjusted (adjusted was a loss during secular bear markets, like shown in the 2nd picture). And that's not even adjusted for real inflation, just for the official CPI.

View attachment 39249


View attachment 39250
Anyone who advocates blind buying of ETFs without regards to valuations needs to look at this sobering graph.
For example 1902 to 1982 the price appreciation was zero in real terms! Yes dividends were paid but for example what if you retired in 1906 and were spending your dividends? You would get zero growth on your capital!!
 

joost

Pelican
Funny is how the market reacts to certain stocks. The other day Netflix rose because it lost "only" a million subscribers instead of two.

With rates close to zero and money printing, everything is distorted.

Nassim Taleb is a Wizard with his preparation. He told people to hold cash, even when everyone was concern about inflation eating all their savings.

He recommends you to use a small percentage of your portfolio to gamble on options. I tried reading his options hedging book but it looks like I'm reading a foreign language.

So far the best thing I can do is hold cash and hopefully I'll have some liquidity if the world burns and I'll be able to go shopping (probably real estate in some big city).
 

C-Note

Hummingbird
Other Christian
Gold Member
Nassim Taleb is a Wizard with his preparation. He told people to hold cash, even when everyone was concern about inflation eating all their savings.

He recommends you to use a small percentage of your portfolio to gamble on options. I tried reading his options hedging book but it looks like I'm reading a foreign language.
I haven't tried stock options yet, but from what I understand it means that you're basically renting your stock to other people to day trade or play around with it. It's a way to get passive income from your holdings (besides dividends) when you're not buying or selling due to market volatility. Since most of my holdings are in mutual funds, I haven't played around with options yet. If some of my current stock buying blows up, I may look at it, or I may just sell them.
 

Blade Runner

Hummingbird
Orthodox
I haven't tried stock options yet, but from what I understand it means that you're basically renting your stock to other people to day trade or play around with it. It's a way to get passive income from your holdings (besides dividends) when you're not buying or selling due to market volatility. Since most of my holdings are in mutual funds, I haven't played around with options yet. If some of my current stock buying blows up, I may look at it, or I may just sell them.
Mostly I think that he recommends 1+ year holds too for tax reasons. It is important to do that for several reasons, since timing generally is hard and the tax rate for higher earners is never just 20%. Right now the anti-fragility play would be holding cash, yes.
 

Blade Runner

Hummingbird
Orthodox
For those who have stocks this may come as welcome news. For those considering investing, now is the time to buy. I am impressed someone timed the bottom to the very day.

He could end up being right but I think within 10 days you'll see just how wrong he was again (like usual).
 

joost

Pelican
I haven't tried stock options yet, but from what I understand it means that you're basically renting your stock to other people to day trade or play around with it. It's a way to get passive income from your holdings (besides dividends) when you're not buying or selling due to market volatility. Since most of my holdings are in mutual funds, I haven't played around with options yet. If some of my current stock buying blows up, I may look at it, or I may just sell them.
What you're referring is Covered Call. If you have 100 shares of XYZ, you can WRITE/SELL a covered call. Depending on the stock, you'll get a good percentage out of it. The only downside is limiting your upside. If the stock rises (let's say) 20% in the period but your option was 5% above, you'll end up having to pass your shares at the agreed 5% price.




Mostly I think that he recommends 1+ year holds too for tax reasons. It is important to do that for several reasons, since timing generally is hard and the tax rate for higher earners is never just 20%. Right now the anti-fragility play would be holding cash, yes.
I don't think that's the case with Taleb. He recommends to do asymmetric trades. You "bleed" more often but when you're right you multiply the amount, compensating all the previous bets. The method Universa fund uses is something like this:
You buy PUTS with 2-months expiration at around 20% below SPY price (due to liquidity). When passes 1 month. sell it and buy a 2-month again. That's a type of insurance for a portfolio. It will drag your returns but if there's a crash you use the extra money you made to buy more stocks.
For a regular portfolio, 3% is the amount used. You can keep cash but you won't get any dividends to compensate the amount you drain. If you think you can time a crash...
 

EndlessGravity

Ostrich
Protestant
Nassim Taleb is a Wizard with his preparation. He told people to hold cash, even when everyone was concern about inflation eating all their savings.

He recommends you to use a small percentage of your portfolio to gamble on options. I tried reading his options hedging book but it looks like I'm reading a foreign language.

This book was the only one he wrote worth reading.
 

MichaelWitcoff

Hummingbird
Orthodox
The reality is there are very few large corporations that aren't doing things that are morally reprehensible. If you want to look at things through tat lens perhaps the stock market isn't the place for you to invest. If you go down that rabbit hole you may as well become Amish.

Lets look at a few examples:
-Large pharmaceutical companies don't even get me started on the Covid vaccines.
-Consumer food and beverage companies are selling products filled with high fructose corn syrup and seed oils, etc
-Tech/internet companies like Meta, Alphabet, etc de-platforming people, pushing woke leftist agendas and being used by governments as a back door to spy on citizens.
-Media companies like Disney pushing woke agendas to kids in their cartoons and movies
-Oil fracking companies contaminating the water supply of small communities and destroying/polluting their farms, etc

The reality is that at this point you would be hard pressed to find a large corporation that is not somehow evil, let alone enough to fill an investment portfolio. I invest in stocks. You just have to accept that companies will do things you do not agree with and you cannot control it. It is just the system we live in. Accept it or go Amish.
I don’t invest in any companies with woke values and I’ve done significantly better than the market as a whole. If you do the work, you can find good companies to invest in. There are even mutual funds you can find that are built specifically to non-woke values, but you should still check the companies they invest in because they sometimes miss things.

I use this: https://inspireinsight.com/?__hstc=...c=244782426.1.1658838532842&__hsfp=3909245150
 
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