Supply chain & commodity disruptions [INTERNATIONAL]

[Roosh]

The European electricity crisis seems to be yet another side effect of collapse rather than the root cause. Like a game of whack-a-mole, it will be one crisis after another, some deliberately planned by the elites but others unexpected. The system is too complex for them to control and they are probably hanging onto the seat of their pants like us, though with more material security. One outcome is certain: all of our lives will soon drastically change, and the only disagreement I have with peers is a matter of timing. I believe these tribulations will come sooner than later.

I am not enlightened but I do have personal opinions that is shaped by my Orthodox peers and understanding of the prophecies of recent saints. I expect Europe to go through a major crisis first (it seems to have already started for them but this could only be a small taste). It could involve a larger NATO war. Us Americans will watch from relative comfort at the poor Europeans, and then it is my understanding that we will face an even bigger trial that will probably involve serious food shortages no matter where you live in the country. That's the broad stroke that I'm braced for on a 0-3 year timeline. An indicator of timing will be if the West concedes victory to Russia gracefully. If they instead decide to escalate the war rather than concede, things will move very quickly. I would be very surprised if we have to wait more than one year for a strong shock to happen, first in Europe. Americans will see themselves as "lucky" initially, to be insulated from it, but then our deserved chastisement will come.

I imagine that one day I will wake up and the internet will not be working. I'll step outside and hear nothing of interest, maybe a siren or two, but the air will feel different, heavier. And it will begin. Whatever faith we have at that point will be tested. This is all just my guess from my instinct. Whatever the case, I'm preparing spiritually, not materially, but it will be very hard.

 

[Sveti Vrh]

I am not enlightened but I do have personal opinions that is shaped by my Orthodox peers and understanding of the prophecies of recent saints.

Which prophesies?

 

[eradicator]

 

[eradicator]

I imagine that one day I will wake up and the internet will not be working. I'll step outside and hear nothing of interest, maybe a siren or two, but the air will feel different, heavier. And it will begin. Whatever faith we have at that point will be tested. This is all just my guess from my instinct. Whatever the case, I'm preparing spiritually, not materially, but it will be very hard.

If I had to guess, we will see more rolling blackouts like during a heat wave. They will become longer and more annoying and likely just accepted as a part of the new normal.

The hyperinflation will continue. The cost of gas will go up with it, we be paying $20/gallon then $50/gallon then 100$/gallon

Perhaps the cellphone grid will come under attack, from China of course. Any Cold War with China will not be fought with ships and tanks and nukes(at least not initially), they will fight by trying to bring down our power grid, our cellphone grid.

If they do decide to escalate to nukes, they will nuke their own people first in one of their provinces like Wuhan(they may just say we nukes wuhan because of racist coronavirus attacks). Then fire on North America. I’d guess we are a long ways away from that, China wants to enslave the USA economically

 

[Thomas More]

If I had to guess, we will see more rolling blackouts like during a heat wave. They will become longer and more annoying and likely just accepted as a part of the new normal.

The hyperinflation will continue. The cost of gas will go up with it, we be paying $20/gallon then $50/gallon then 100$/gallon

Perhaps the cellphone grid will come under attack, from China of course. Any Cold War with China will not be fought with ships and tanks and nukes(at least not initially), they will fight by trying to bring down our power grid, our cellphone grid.

If they do decide to escalate to nukes, they will nuke their own people first in one of their provinces like Wuhan(they may just say we nukes wuhan because of racist coronavirus attacks). Then fire on North America. I’d guess we are a long ways away from that, China wants to enslave the USA economically

Username checks out!

 

[Papaya]

The Czechs have had enough of West's chicanery. 70k plus people on Weneclas Square protesting EU, NATO, and energy stupidity

Thousands of Czechs Protest in Central Prague Over Energy Crisis

Tens of thousands of Czechs protested in Prague against the government to demand more state help with rising energy bills, the largest manifestation of public discontent over the worst cost-of-living crisis in three decades.

www.bloomberg.com

 

[budoslavic]

 

[Nordwand]

"Have they no brioche?"

 

[rainy]

I'm setting aside money for the mother in law in Eastern Europe to assist with gas/electric/food prices she'll get slammed with this coming winter.

Very concerned for people like herself who are well into retirement age, the social security equivalent is barely enough to scrape by as it is and there's really nowhere to squeeze extra money from.

In general and I follow all supply chain and rising expense forecasts closely for business; this next wave over the following 6-9 months is going to do as much or more damage to society than the COVID lockdowns did. Many businesses will go under, many will lose their jobs, many will lose their housing(expenses, credit/leverage bubble bursting), many will suffer from the massive increasing costs and as we get out of winter, the food shortages in the spring will hit hard.

Prepare yourself.

 

[budoslavic]

 

[budoslavic]

Zoltan Pozsar: We are witnessing the birth of a new world monetary order​

In a note published earlier, Zoltan Pozsar, Global Head of Short-Term Interest Rate Strategy at Credit Suisse, wrote this crisis is not like anything we have seen since President Nixon took the U.S. dollar off gold in 1971 – the end of the era of commodity-based money. When this crisis is over, the U.S. dollar should be much weaker. He believes the global monetary system will never be the same post the crisis.

“We are witnessing the birth of Bretton Woods III – a new world (monetary) order centered around commodity-based currencies in the East that will likely weaken the Eurodollar system and also contribute to inflationary forces in the West.” – Zoltan Pozsar, Former Federal Reserve and U.S. Treasury Department official, and now Credit Suisse Global Head of Short-Term Interest Rate Strategy based in New York.

In a note published earlier, Zoltan wrote this crisis is not like anything we have seen since President Nixon took the U.S. dollar off gold in 1971 – the end of the era of commodity-based money. When this crisis is over, the U.S. dollar should be much weaker. From the Bretton Woods era backed by gold bullion, to Bretton Woods II backed by inside money (Treasuries with un-hedgeable confiscation risks), to Bretton Woods III backed by outside money (gold bullion and other commodities), Zoltan believes the global monetary system will never be the same post the crisis.

Zoltan said a crisis of commodities could be unfolding. Commodities are collateral, and collateral is money, and this crisis is about the rising allure of outside money over inside money. Bretton Woods II was built on inside money, and its foundations crumbled a week ago when the G7 seized Russia’s FX reserve.

By reviewing the parallels between the crises currently unfolding and the crises of 1997, 1998, 2008, and 2020, Zoltan further mentioned we could draw the conclusions that every crisis occurs at the intersection of funding and collateral markets. At present, commodities are collateral, and more precisely, Russian commodities are like subprime collateral and everything else is prime. According to Zoltan, if we link them up with the four prices of money - namely Par, Interest, Exchange rate and Price level - we see a pattern which should make us concerned.

• Par– this is what broke in 2008 when money funds broke the buck and funding markets froze from fearing subprime mortgage collateral.
• Interest– this is what broke in 2020 when bond RV trades failed as the drawdown of credit lines pulled funding away from good collateral.
• Exchange rate– this is what broke in 1997 when collateral (FX reserves) went missing and U.S. dollar funding staged a sudden stop in Asia.
• Price level– this is what’s in focus as we speak.

Zoltan further adds that commodities used to trade at tight spreads until now. They no longer trade at par. There are Russian commodities that are collapsing in price and there are non-Russian commodities that are rallying – this is due to the 2022 Russia supply shock which is driven by present and future sanctions-related stigma. Zoltan wrote it’s a buyer’s strike, not a seller’s strike. He believes Russian commodities today are like subprime CDOs were in 2008. Conversely, non-Russian commodities are like U.S. Treasury securities back in 2008. One collapsing in price, and the other one surging, with margin calls on both regardless of which side you are on. “Commodities basis” is climbing.

Zoltan also pointed out from the 1997, 2008 and 2020 crises, we learned that someone, somehow must always provide a backstop. He believes Western central banks cannot close the gaping “commodities basis” because their respective sovereigns are the ones driving the sanctions. They will have to deal with the inflationary impacts of the “commodities basis” and try to cool them with rate hikes, but they will not be able to provide the outside spreads and won’t be able to provide balance sheet to close “Russia-non-Russia” spreads. Commodity traders wouldn’t be able to either. So who would provide the backdrop this time he questions.

Zoltan Pozsar: We are witnessing the birth of a new world monetary order

How will advances in technology, finance and sustainability shape this vibrant region’s next stage of growth?

www.credit-suisse.com

Edit.

 

[budoslavic]

 

[Papaya]

Protesters in Perugia,Italy burn energy bills to decry govt's inaction in face of soaring prices Russia is going after the economical architecture of EU and the elitist EU politician still don't understand or doesn't want to understand or they de-industralise EU on purpose

I think it would be obvious by now... ?

 

[Cynllo]

European natural gas prices surge 36% after Russia halts Nord Stream 1 flows indefinitely​

• European natural gas prices surged 36% Monday after Russia indefinitely stopped flows via Nord Stream 1.
• Russia said turbine issues mean it won't reopen the pipeline from a three-day maintenance shutdown.
• Europe has been plunged into economic crisis by a dramatic rally in energy prices since Russia's invasion of Ukraine.

Euro also aat 20 year low.

 

[Cynllo]

 

[DenizenJane]

American here.

I'm going to give away the general sentiment toward my workplace right now, but did mention to the boss before his labor day week vacation that we should probably maybe sorta find of an alternative source of our alloy blades in the USA rather than across the Atlantic due to the what's currently going on in the EU (Our current supply comes from Germany, and we've already been dealing with backorders in the more business-as-usual times).

We absolutely have to have these to run our manufacturing plant.

I got what I expected; eyes glazed over, not-real answers, and that ended that. Oh well. I tried.

I brought this up the day before the news broke the that Nordstream wasn't going to be turned back on...

Of course the business over in Germany hasn't said anything yet. It would already be too late by the time they did anyway.

But its just situational math; aluminum plants in Finland and already shutting down already before it even turns autumn; we are currently buying made-to-order complicated alloy pieces smack in the middle of Europe.

I am expecting issues at my gig pretty soon, to say the least...

 

[EuropeanCanon]

Please link to me where Europeans voted for migrants or to embargo Russia.

You remember that song "People have the power"?

It is complete bullshit and always was. The only power the elites allow us is the power to surrender to their agenda.

 

[Jive Turkey]

You remember that song "People have the power"?

It is complete bullshit and always was. The only power the elites allow us is the power to surrender to their agenda.

No, that is not true. I understand you are feeling frustrated brother, believe me I am too. But we have the power to repent. God has been patient with us for a very long time. Even now he is cranking the heat up slowly to give as much time for as many people as possible to repent. We have chosen evil for a long time, and now it is time to face the music. We, as a civilization, have been having a grand old time, on vacation so to speak. We have been neglecting our children, our work, our education, our responsibilities, our morals and most importantly our faith for a long time.

It is inevitable that we face some kind of consequence. However, only God is all powerful. Nothing on this earth comes to pass without his permission. Everything is being worked for the good. Where sin abounds, grace abounds even more.

We have plenty of power. Go to church, network, pray, grow a small garden, get a deep freezer and buy a quarter cow. Or split a quarter cow with a friend or two. Buy or build a wood burning stove. We must be content with small victories for now, but remember things can change very quickly when they pick up steam. Germany went from Weimar Republic to Third Reich in a matter of years. (For an example, not saying this would be ideal)

We do not know what God has in store for us, all we know is that He has for us the ultimate good in mind. But like it says in Isaiah, His thoughts are not our thoughts, and His ways are not our ways".

We are dealing with bullies, not an authentic warrior class. They are cowards and God could easily raise an army to quickly wipe them out if He so chooses. But we must have faith. Inside of the soviet union it must have felt like communism would never be over. But 70 years, the lifespan of the psalmist, and then like that it was over. The story isn't over yet, and we already know that God will win. Take this energy and pray fervently at night for the repentance and overthrow of the WEF. We can already see wheels coming off of the carriage, and if God chooses to be merciful we will land safely and into a brighter, freer and more peaceful future. It's not over until it's over, so let us pray and be a light unto the world.

 

[EuropeanCanon]

No, that is not true. I understand you are feeling frustrated brother, believe me I am too. But we have the power to repent. God has been patient with us for a very long time. Even now he is cranking the heat up slowly to give as much time for as many people as possible to repent. We have chosen evil for a long time, and now it is time to face the music. We, as a civilization, have been having a grand old time, on vacation so to speak. We have been neglecting our children, our work, our education, our responsibilities, our morals and most importantly our faith for a long time.

It is inevitable that we face some kind of consequence. However, only God is all powerful. Nothing on this earth comes to pass without his permission. Everything is being worked for the good. Where sin abounds, grace abounds even more.

We have plenty of power. Go to church, network, pray, grow a small garden, get a deep freezer and buy a quarter cow. Or split a quarter cow with a friend or two. Buy or build a wood burning stove. We must be content with small victories for now, but remember things can change very quickly when they pick up steam. Germany went from Weimar Republic to Third Reich in a matter of years. (For an example, not saying this would be ideal)

We do not know what God has in store for us, all we know is that He has for us the ultimate good in mind. But like it says in Isaiah, His thoughts are not our thoughts, and His ways are not our ways".

We are dealing with bullies, not an authentic warrior class. They are cowards and God could easily raise an army to quickly wipe them out if He so chooses. But we must have faith. Inside of the soviet union it must have felt like communism would never be over. But 70 years, the lifespan of the psalmist, and then like that it was over. The story isn't over yet, and we already know that God will win. Take this energy and pray fervently at night for the repentance and overthrow of the WEF. We can already see wheels coming off of the carriage, and if God chooses to be merciful we will land safely and into a brighter, freer and more peaceful future. It's not over until it's over, so let us pray and be a light unto the world.

Thanks for your comments friend.

 

[Cynllo]

Does anyone pay for web hosting, particularly dedicated servers?

I'd been using one in CA and another in FR, but have switched to a German one. They say on their site there will be a price increase in 2023, though I'm not sure how much.

DE prices to go up a lot more than their FI servers.

Maybe they will need to hike prices earlier.

Anyone been hiked on these?

In general, surprised I haven't heard Normies complaining about this. When I asked one said he won't be able to afford to live by January. I guess they haven't been given permission to be angry yet.