Supply chain disruptions thread

grenade001

Woodpecker
Catholic
They'll have to make these things modular. Actual repairs will be a thing of the past; it's going to be plug and replace. Unclamp the leg unit, disconnect the coupling cable, reconnect the coupling cable to the new leg, clamp in place. Refurbishments to be done off site if at all.

In my field of diesel engineering, we're losing the ability to repair things by taking engines apart to the grief of the older mechanics and specialists which is leading to a more modular design of engines and more computerization to operate these engines. We can't rely on operators to understand the signs of a failing engine, such as sound/vibration, exhaust color, metal dust in the filters, lube oil or coolant temperatures, etc. anymore - that is all outsourced to computers. Zoomers are getting hired as mechanics who have never used a ratchet and they have to be babysat almost constantly. I'm hearing of diesel manufacturers planning to make VR headsets (or software for them) which will recognize engine parts and label them in real time and sync it with the repair manual so these people will be able to do repairs. Basically they want to turn maintenance into a video game for zoomers (not trying to bash zoomers but that's the reality of the situation.)
I agree that components will be modular, and that it will simply be a continuation of a decades long trend.

I used to have a 1995 Ford that had a completely sealed automatic transmission - meaning it was pre oiled, and you could not top up the transmission fluid as required.

Even PC towers these days are effectively "plug and play". It is as simple as building a LEGO set.
 

Easy_C

Peacock
Which isn't necessarily a bad thing. Modular technology allows you to upgrade and replace individual components. The large electronics manufacturers have historically fought against that because they would prefer that you need to replace your entire Iphone rather than being able to swap in a new screen or camera when the old part breaks or is due for an upgrade.
 

Pointy Elbows

Woodpecker
Orthodox
I live in the greater Phoenix area, a freemason founded social experiment (just my opinion). They seem to be trying to shuttle people from failing states like CA into this soon to be mega city. I hadn't noticed any shortages that others had discussed and wondered if they were trying to shield this area from these problems in order to make this place more appealing. I finally noticed some shortages in the last few weeks, I drink organic grass fed milk and I noticed that those were missing on the shelves. The regular glyphosate enriched milk was in full supply it was just the good stuff that was out. Also I work at a high end grocery store and we haven't been able to get our whole chickens for our rotisserie in the last week. Do you guys think that certain areas are high priority while others are more or less abandoned?
I've noticed a similar thing recently. The shelves in the city grocery stores seem to be better stocked, although some shortages are happening. In the smaller towns I visit, some stores are ok, but the more acute shortages appear to be in these lower tier cities with lower tier grocery stores. I don't know if this is by design, or not. It may simply be supply v. demand issue: larger cities, with larger stores, will always get product first reality. They'll let the country folks figure it out or drive to town on the weekend. It does fit the narrative that TPTB seek to empty the countryside and fill the cities.

I encourage the idea of farmer's markets, buy from local producers, etc. But the reality is that the entire agricultural field has become highly specialized. In order to gain any "scale," farmers limit their crops to 3 or 4 products, maybe just 1. Very few farms can produce a profit on a "whole menu" or garden concept. That is compounded by reality that you can't grow certain products in certain regions.

My 80+ father remembers when, as a little boy in a rural midwestern farm town, they would get a couple oranges in their Christmas stockings. This was a big deal, because from November there was little fresh produce available. Everything had been jarred, jammed, jellied, or pickled during the harvest season and citrus only came from faraway, southern climes.
 

budoslavic

Eagle
Orthodox
Gold Member
Fake container ships in the background of Biden.

FHOuVC6XIAA8WNe



 

Pointy Elbows

Woodpecker
Orthodox
Received notice today from a supplier of a 40% price increase soon. This will result in about a 16% COGS increase for the product we make from this base stock. That doesn't include any freight increases (pending) over last year's massive jump. I ate most of the freight increases last year - hopefully to build loyalty with my customers, who were locked into job contracts. Can't hold off this year.

I'll have to raise that finished product price at least 20% to cover expense, let alone make extra profit, driving my Net Margins even lower.

The real kicker - an upstream supplier of his gave notice that they are closing up their plant next week. This is a one week notice to close up what is likely at least a $20M facility! Accordingly, we'll all be rationed going forward.

Given what others are going through, I'll consider myself lucky for now.
 

rainy

Pelican
Other Christian
Received notice today from a supplier of a 40% price increase soon. This will result in about a 16% COGS increase for the product we make from this base stock. That doesn't include any freight increases (pending) over last year's massive jump. I ate most of the freight increases last year - hopefully to build loyalty with my customers, who were locked into job contracts. Can't hold off this year.

I'll have to raise that finished product price at least 20% to cover expense, let alone make extra profit, driving my Net Margins even lower.

The real kicker - an upstream supplier of his gave notice that they are closing up their plant next week. This is a one week notice to close up what is likely at least a $20M facility! Accordingly, we'll all be rationed going forward.

Given what others are going through, I'll consider myself lucky for now.
All the best, man.

I'm dealing with the same. My clients are signed up on yearly contracts and we're sending those out next month. Just put in price increases across the board on everyone as we try to get out in front of this as we can't change prices mid-season. We'll see the response soon enough but don't have a choice.

But that's just contracts. Plant materials(buy per demand as we go) and pesticides/herbicides we can't account for yet but we're hearing there will be substantial increases in cost to us there as well. With the latter potentially 30-40% supply shortages.

And on the other end of the spectrum due to inflation I have numerous employees demanding raises.

None of my lefty friends have an iota of understanding of what's happening here. They just think meat is a little more expensive at the supermarket. They can't comprehend the chain reaction all this crap will create. From manufacturer to wholesaler to vendor to company to client/consumer. The increases in cost get passed down until it ultimately hits the consumer. Then the consumer at some point makes choices and cuts services and purchasing of goods. You weaken companies, some don't survive, employees get laid off and the consumer can barely get by.

And just wait until health insurance premiums jump this year.
 

Spro23

Pigeon
Catholic
I wonder if this is due to the population growth and overcrowding of America in general. Maybe we've crossed a threshold where these Mega cities sprawling just aren't viable anymore due to the need for a constant stream of semis to deliver everything.

If you've seen Denver, Houston, Dallas or Austin lately I really think it's an issue of too many people. In Colorado the whole area between ft Collins and Colorado springs is like 1 big city now, with $500k+ houses within 3 ft of each other.

I think it will end like those gangs of New York fight scenes in utter chaos.

The irony is these leftist "environmentalists" don't care about mass immigration doing this. Between legal and illegal immigration it's likely 5 million more people every year competing for space.
 

Beyond Borders

Peacock
Gold Member
^ I had a package I was waiting for on the 31st, then suddenly when it was about time to pick it up, and with zero explanation, the delivery date for my "2-3 day" free shipment jumped to the 7th. I suppose that's what they do when the loads get pillaged. Update your delivery date and send a new one.
 
Top