Supply chain disruptions thread

[stugatz]

Restaurant I work at has changed some of the ingredients on the fly - our beer cheese soup (for multiple items) used to be thicker and paler, it's really thinned out recently because our chef had to think up completely different ingredients to make it work. We quite often have alternate potato wedges and alternate onion rings because our supplier doesn't always have our usual in stock.

Some nights we've straight up run out of an item and were out of it until the next supplier delivery day (ran out of all tomatoes one Saturday and had to wait until Monday to get a new box). Our usual beautiful leafy romaine lettuce some weeks is replaced by a much crappier yellow alternate that's hell to chop up for salads.

We also had a box of wings last week that seemed to be right on the edge of its "sell by" date, I think that supplier fudged the numbers to lie to us and not lose a sale. Usually we have about a week shelf life.

 

[SpyofMoses]

Fact check: California cargo backlog not due to trucking ...https://www.usatoday.com › factcheck › 2021/10/18 › f...

Most trucks already compliant with engine rule​

The regulations cited in the Facebook post are real. But experts say they aren't contributing to supply chain delays in California.

Let's start with the first rule mentioned in the post: the "California truck ban" that says "all trucks must be 2011 or newer."

The Commercial Carrier Journal, a news outlet that covers the trucking industry, reported in 2018 that the California Department of Motor Vehicles would soon start registering trucks only if they were in compliance with the state's truck and bus regulation. That rule calls for the majority of trucks, including those that service ports, to have a 2010 or newer engine by 2023. Some trucks with older engines had to comply with the regulation by 2020.

About 96% of trucks serving California's major ports are already compliant with the rule, according to Karen Caesar, an information officer for the California Air Resources Board.

"As of this year, 2021, only trucks with engines older than 2005 would have their registration denied," she said in an email. "So any truck with a 2007 or newer engine is currently in compliance with the regulation."

At the port of Los Angeles, for example, all trucks with access to the port in August had 2007 or newer engines. Caesar also noted the ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach have had additional, stricter requirements for older trucks for years.

What I can't help but wonder when I read this article is how many truckers left just before August. Even if their engine is an '07 or newer, the writing is on the wall for them. Why not just move to a different state with less regulations on Diesel trucks? I'm not close enough to the ins and outs of the Cali shipping industry to know the answer. But I do figure that many truckers may have left shortly enough before August that the back log had already started and reached a head by September.

It seems everyone I talk to about the supply chain situation is convinced that the labor shortage is driving most of these disruptions. They say everyone's still getting unemployment benefits, even if without that boost it had during 2020. I'm not sure how many people in the ports, docks, and warehouses across the country lost their job per COVID, but I know if they did they probably aren't in a hurry to take back a job that can just get cancelled again per the 'Rona- or whatever else.

I personally am in the retail business. My colleagues and I just can't keep up with what has a limit on it today or the next. People are learning to just make do with what they can get and buy things they see on the shelf while it's still there whether they really are running low at home or not.

 

[Gimlet]

Fact check: California cargo backlog not due to trucking ...https://www.usatoday.com › factcheck › 2021/10/18 › f...

Can you fix this link? I would like to read this. (That said, almost every article that claims to "fact check" is outright lying at worst, or hiding the truth at best.)

 

[SpyofMoses]

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news...klog-not-due-trucking-regulations/8456582002/

Tell me if this works. Sorry, I'm still figuring out how to post links.

 

[Gimlet]

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news...klog-not-due-trucking-regulations/8456582002/

Tell me if this works. Sorry, I'm still figuring out how to post links.

Thanks, it works.

The article is total crap designed to make you focus on 1 issue easily deboinked. I can't take the time to go through it point by point, but the reveal it is utter BS came early.

But experts say trucking regulations aren't to blame for the cargo backlog.

"To attribute the problems of today to this mandate is not accurate," Miguel Jaller Martelo, co-director of the Sustainable Freight Research Program at the University of California-Davis, said in an email. "I would concentrate more on low wages, and new shipping trends that resulted from shifts in demand and consumption patterns during COVID."

So the expert they are relying on, is an academic whose very job/source of funding is to destroy and remake the existing transportation system. No remake of the system, no money, no career. They chose this academic instead of the CEO of any number of real world trucking companies who have lived and breathed this for decades intentionally. Does this look like the place to go to figure out how to get things moving right now? Or the place to go to help enable a controlled demolition of the system?

Sustainable Freight Research Center

sfreight.ucdavis.edu

 

[Pointy Elbows]

The Cali truck situation is a mystery to me. California is one of the largest economies in the world. If it were a separate country, it would be a top 10 GDP country. Throw in several huge ports and you have a massive transportation infrastructure. Plenty of trucks come and go from Cali, and lots of train traffic also. But they have been driving out older trucks, as stated above, for years. I know of California truck owners selling old, low mile, specialty construction trucks as far east as Texas. The operator simply had to unload a useful machine to replace it with a compliant vehicle.

I do believe a lot of owner-operators have also left the state. Ports of Entry in California are famously difficult with petty inspections and fines. Throw in emissions rules and California level taxation, and small guys are almost forced to move out. For years, I've heard of truck drivers that refused loads to/from California. They don't want the headache and cost.

As for specific item shortages, we've been told that Honda small engines are on back order for months. These things are critical to the contractor world. Honda makes very reliable small engines used on all kinds of jobsite equipment. This particular shortage is directly effecting three of my vendors. We have lost probably 10k in sales simply because the end items were waiting on a small motor. Honda!

Simple things like wooden handles, brooms, twisted wire brushes have been spotty in the last two months. I've heard lots about the paint shortages that OP mentioned.

Last year, we paid about $3000 for a particular delivery we take often. Last week, it was $4800 for the same run. It may go to $5400 by year end. We've had truckloads fail to pick up inbound supplies for 2 weeks after the load was ready. We've had drivers promise to show tomorrow, just to no-show 18 hours later.

It's been a bad year trying to stay on top of freight issues.

 

[Helmsman]

I think disruptions are less about the small issues like CA’s trucker law. It’s simply that the world shut down for months in 2020. Supply chains do not start and stop at the push of a button. Operations take time. Transportation takes time. It is impossible to restart the global economy and expect everything to run smoothly. A years worth of goods is being pushed through a system designed for a fraction of that. It’s like a python eating a gator. Goes down smooth until it chokes on the big piece.

But again this isn’t a bug, it’s a feature of the globalist plan. Chaos and disruption.

 

[Feyoder]

The trucking industry can't get enough chips:

General Motors CEO: Chip shortage has forced supply chain rethink

General Motors will source more semiconductors directly from manufacturers to adapt to the ongoing global chip shortage, its CEO Mary Barra said.

web.archive.org

Or parts:

DEF sensor failures sideline thousands of trucks - MTAC

From Transport Topics. Ongoing shortages of replacement parts for failed diesel exhaust fluid quality sensors are believed to be causing thousands of trucks nationwide to be disabled and parked. The sensors, which measure the quality and level of diesel exhaust fluid (DEF) in the tank, normally...

web.archive.org

So thousands of trucks are sitting idle.

They're also having huge trouble finding drivers:

ATA Releases Updated Driver Shortage Report and Forecast | American Trucking Associations

Arlington, Virginia — Today, the American Trucking Associations released its latest examination of the driver shortage, finding the industry needed 60,800 more drivers at the end o

web.archive.org

And keeping the ones they do have:

Cross-border truck drivers to face vaccine mandate - Truck News

Cross-border truck drivers will need to prove they’re fully vaccinated against Covid-19 beginning in early January, under a series of measures that will

www.trucknews.com

Twenty-seven percent said they would consider leaving their job if their employer required people to be vaccinated

A Texas co. offering drivers $14k per week to drive:

Texas trucking company offers highest-paid drivers $14K per week amid recruiting effort

One Texas trucking company is willing to pay some of its experienced drivers a weekly salary of as much as $14,000 as it seeks to combat the effects of a nationwide driver shortage.

web.archive.org

Around one-quarter of the nation’s truck capacity has been removed from the road due to a lack of qualified drivers.

And what's concerning is that supply chain is already very fragile due to almost complete reliance on imports and just-in-time logistics where reserves of inputs are kept low to minimize costs:

Chip shortage shows need for supply chain rethink - Applied Materials CEO

The semiconductor industry needs to rethink its use of just-in-time supply chains because of the ongoing chip shortage, says the CEO of Applied Materials.

web.archive.org

 

[EndlessGravity]

A years worth of goods is being pushed through a system designed for a fraction of that. It’s like a python eating a gator. Goes down smooth until it chokes on the big piece.

This is the entire root of the issue. I've also seen (and heard about) businesses who were unable to get what they need then ordering way more than they need, not because they think the economy is booming (they don't) but in the hopes even a fraction of that is able to get through. This of course makes the problem way worse.

 

[DanielH]

Be on the lookout for certain "solutions" to this problem. I wouldn't be surprised to see a sort digital rationing system, either on the corporate or private side come along soon.

Here in the Northeast US I don't think I've ever seen shelves so consistently empty. My local grocery store is on top of pushing everything to the front so it appears the shelves are full, but seeing a third of one side of an aisle being one deep of one type of condiment stood out to me as particularly bizarre.

Told a friend ground beef was anywhere from 3.50-7/lb depending on the quality, he was shocked that the lowest you can get it was 3.50, but I was wrong, the lowest is now 4.50 that I can find. Aldi might be lower if I drive the extra distance. Also every time we've gone there has been no more than a few packages of ground beef, if any. That was a staple of our diet and that is one small thing that will probably have to change this winter.

On the bright side more and more of my extended family is on board with prepping and gardening more.

I'm looking everywhere I can now for firewood. The fireplace typically accounts for half of our winter heating, but I'm trying to get that closer to 100% assuming it's free since heating costs are skyrocketing. We have some neighbors with an excess of seasoned firewood so I figure I can always trade some green firewood for seasoned. Also used this as an excuse to get another steel wedge and a sledgehammer, that is some real fun right there.

 

[They Live]

View attachment 34303

View attachment 34304

I find that funny. Let's hide there problem. Nothing to see here! Wait until your average normie can't get what they want. We've seen absolutely nothing yet.

 

[Padouk]

Locate yourself near food sources you can rely on, simplify your life, find like minded people and arm yourself with patience and resilience.

 

[EndlessGravity]

Aldi might be lower if I drive the extra distance.

No, $3.50-$3.75 seems about the normal there. It's also hard to use them as a shortage guide because they're often out of an item randomly because of how their business model works. We've been thinking about getting a half beef from now on for meat but I keep going back and forth about whether it's really worth it.

On the bright side more and more of my extended family is on board with prepping and gardening more.

I urge everyone to build preps. Start with a few weeks then keep going. The Mormons keep a year's worth of food on-hand. You don't have to be crazy, just enough to protect your family if things ever got bad.

 

[AntoniusofEfa]

My employer makes, among others, automotive Microcontrollers. Current earliest delivery for external suppliers is August 2022 for most of the current product line up. All the current stock and whatever is produced is being distributed to the largest, most strategically important clients. Even development boards for this particular family of microcontrollers are starting to get difficult to get a hold of.

These chips power, among others, new agricultural equipment. I have also heard reports of 10 cent microcontrollers costing 30 to 100 times more due to scarcity. The era of cheap electronics is done.

 

[Easy_C]

 

[Papaya]

Im in SoCal Just got back in to US after 2 weeks in DR and last night was the second visit in a row the local grocery store was out of extra wide egg noodles. There were every other kind of noodles but they just dont work for my gourmet squab mac n cheese.

Lets Go Brandon !

 

[Enoch]

Be on the lookout for certain "solutions" to this problem. I wouldn't be surprised to see a sort digital rationing system, either on the corporate or private side come along soon.

Here in the Northeast US I don't think I've ever seen shelves so consistently empty. My local grocery store is on top of pushing everything to the front so it appears the shelves are full, but seeing a third of one side of an aisle being one deep of one type of condiment stood out to me as particularly bizarre.

Told a friend ground beef was anywhere from 3.50-7/lb depending on the quality, he was shocked that the lowest you can get it was 3.50, but I was wrong, the lowest is now 4.50 that I can find. Aldi might be lower if I drive the extra distance. Also every time we've gone there has been no more than a few packages of ground beef, if any. That was a staple of our diet and that is one small thing that will probably have to change this winter.

On the bright side more and more of my extended family is on board with prepping and gardening more.

I'm looking everywhere I can now for firewood. The fireplace typically accounts for half of our winter heating, but I'm trying to get that closer to 100% assuming it's free since heating costs are skyrocketing. We have some neighbors with an excess of seasoned firewood so I figure I can always trade some green firewood for seasoned. Also used this as an excuse to get another steel wedge and a sledgehammer, that is some real fun right there.

I buy beef by the entire cow. Far more cost efficient, tasty, and you support a local farmer and butcher directly instread of big ag.

 

[DanielH]

I buy beef by the entire cow. Far more cost efficient, tasty, and you support a local farmer and butcher directly instread of big ag.

I'm actually putting out feelers now with family to see if anyone is willing to split a half cow or whole cow if we get enough people

 

[r3d]

Be on the lookout for certain "solutions" to this problem. I wouldn't be surprised to see a sort digital rationing system, either on the corporate or private side come along soon.

Here in the Northeast US I don't think I've ever seen shelves so consistently empty. My local grocery store is on top of pushing everything to the front so it appears the shelves are full, but seeing a third of one side of an aisle being one deep of one type of condiment stood out to me as particularly bizarre.

Told a friend ground beef was anywhere from 3.50-7/lb depending on the quality, he was shocked that the lowest you can get it was 3.50, but I was wrong, the lowest is now 4.50 that I can find. Aldi might be lower if I drive the extra distance. Also every time we've gone there has been no more than a few packages of ground beef, if any. That was a staple of our diet and that is one small thing that will probably have to change this winter.

On the bright side more and more of my extended family is on board with prepping and gardening more.

I'm looking everywhere I can now for firewood. The fireplace typically accounts for half of our winter heating, but I'm trying to get that closer to 100% assuming it's free since heating costs are skyrocketing. We have some neighbors with an excess of seasoned firewood so I figure I can always trade some green firewood for seasoned. Also used this as an excuse to get another steel wedge and a sledgehammer, that is some real fun right there.

That is exactly right. They create problems to sell us the solution.

A global digital currency is the absolute end goal as far as monetary policies go. Maybe hyper-inflation compared with a shortage of food will have people in such a panic that they accept this.

As far as Germany goes I can only report that I heard from colleagues in the hospitality industry that some food is harder to get. In the shelves of the local supermarkets I have seen nothing out of the ordinary.

 

[Robert High Hawk]

That is exactly right. They create problems to sell us the solution.

A global digital currency is the absolute end goal as far as monetary policies go. Maybe hyper-inflation compared with a shortage of food will have people in such a panic that they accept this.

As far as Germany goes I can only report that I heard from colleagues in the hospitality industry that some food is harder to get. In the shelves of the local supermarkets I have seen nothing out of the ordinary.

I think Europe food wise won't be as big a problem as the US. The supply chains for food in Europe are substantially more robust than in the US. For example, even on the East coast, a ridiculously large amount of food comes from... Mexico. Or China. Even beef from the midwest is to the East Coast is much further to travel than most food in Europe. Also from what I've seen the Europeans do a better job of integrating farmland closer to cities. Lots more farmers markets etc...

I think the big problem in Europe will be energy and heating. But also non-food products will inevitably become scarce.