Supply chain disruptions thread

get2choppaaa

Ostrich
How would they blame supply chain disruptions on Conservatives?
Well of course it is illogical....
BUT.... if they did so much damage that it continues from Republican take over 2022 into mid/late 2023... they have a leg to blame them on 2024 election time frame.

In their minds, the more damage they can do the better for their re-election post 2022

Remember, the American Public has a short memory.

How many remember that the twin towers had an attempted bombing attack in the early 1990's before 911?
How many Americans remember Lois Lerner? Fast and Furious?
 

Maddox

Woodpecker
As an alternative, you could buy a 5 gallon jug for less than $20 in a Walmart store to use it to refill water.

I have three 5 gallon jugs of water in my kitchen since I never buy cases of bottled water. The water refill machine in a local supermarket near me only costs $2.25 to fill a 5 gallon jug.

Edit.

As for Gatorade, I always buy a box of Gatorade's Propel packets. You may want to consider looking into various boxes of powdered/mixed drink packets.

I wouldn't even use the water sold in those machines because it still has cancer-causing chemicals like PFAS and Chromium-6 in it. Everyone here should buy a quality water purifier like Hydroviv that removes this crap. These are custom-made filters designed specifically to address the water in the area you live in.

Much cheaper in the long run too.
 
My experience in logistics is limited but, as a lot of you know, I'm skeptical of 100% of the financial narrative we hear. Too often, charts selectively show only certain years to push an agenda or no one bothers to put together data to show whether something may or may not be the case. People just repeat what they heard on CNBC.

So I thought I'd check shipping costs. My hypothesis is the administration is trying to get everyone to spend to boost the economy and what easier way is there than hyping minor shortages? But do shipping costs reflect anything serious going on?

As you can see, according to the Baltic Dry Index, they are not at highs for the goods covered. In fact even in 2021 they were around 2010/11 levels, which aren't known for being boom times. (The trend is toward probable increases though, which are clear).

Perhaps someone knowledgeable can chime and give me a bigger picture.

3syk1qcnx9s71.png
 

MeaningfulMan

Woodpecker
I wouldn't even use the water sold in those machines because it still has cancer-causing chemicals like PFAS and Chromium-6 in it. Everyone here should buy a quality water purifier like Hydroviv that removes this crap. These are custom-made filters designed specifically to address the water in the area you live in.

Much cheaper in the long run too.
I’m going to look into Hydroviv.
 

Roosh

Cardinal
Orthodox
Joseph used good stewardship to store extra from the seven years of plenty to prepare for the seven years of famine. Joseph was a type of the Lord Christ, Who told us to be wise as serpents and innocent as doves. It would be foolish to not read the signs of the times and be prepared (of course, we should also not be anxious and panicked, or “panic buy” out of fear for tomorrow. But we should use our God-given abilities to wisely plan).
Yes but he was a government authority, and all that food was to feed the entire country, not just himself or his family, unlike a typical modern prepper. How about the 40 years the Israelites traveled through the dessert? Was it foolish of them not to store food (rhetorical question: God wouldn't allow them). Christ's teachings supercede the Old Testament. Consult the New Testament about how the sparrows are fed, about worrying about tomorrow, and the parable of the barn. His overall message is very clear.

Everyone will prepare different, but it will directly correlate with their level of faith. If faith of low, prepping will become one's "faith".
 

get2choppaaa

Ostrich
I wouldn't even use the water sold in those machines because it still has cancer-causing chemicals like PFAS and Chromium-6 in it. Everyone here should buy a quality water purifier like Hydroviv that removes this crap. These are custom-made filters designed specifically to address the water in the area you live in.

Much cheaper in the long run too.
Do I hear an add for the Alexa Pure from Infowars coming?

Joking aside, a water purifier/filter should be in everyone's home. Also a small hand held device for your camping bag.
 

get2choppaaa

Ostrich
Yes but he was a government authority, and all that food was to feed the entire country, not just himself or his family, unlike a typical modern prepper. Christ's teachings supercede the Old Testament. Consult the New Testament about how the sparrows are fed, about worrying about tomorrow, and the parable of the barn. His message is very clear.

Everyone will prepare different, but it will directly correlate with their level of faith. If faith of low, prepping will become "faith".


Since I have no worries about my ability to survive austere conditions from my life experiences... The "prepping" I am doing is strengthening my relationship with my Church family and making sure I've explored all the relationships there.

There's a level of common sense physical preparation and Maslow's hierarchy ect... But after a certain point, no amount of bullets, beans and bandaids can replace community and connection.
 
Yes but he was a government authority, and all that food was to feed the entire country, not just himself or his family, unlike a typical modern prepper. How about the 40 years the Israelites traveled through the dessert? Was it foolish of them not to store food (rhetorical question: God wouldn't allow them). Christ's teachings supercede the Old Testament. Consult the New Testament about how the sparrows are fed, about worrying about tomorrow, and the parable of the barn. His overall message is very clear.

Everyone will prepare different, but it will directly correlate with their level of faith. If faith of low, prepping will become one's "faith".

I would point out, and you hint at this, but some of us have been given the spiritual gifts associated with planning and guidance. Too often Christians overlook these people within their churches with platitudes about "trusting God" and "not worrying."
 
My experience in logistics is limited but, as a lot of you know, I'm skeptical of 100% of the financial narrative we hear. Too often, charts selectively show only certain years to push an agenda or no one bothers to put together data to show whether something may or may not be the case. People just repeat what they heard on CNBC.

So I thought I'd check shipping costs. My hypothesis is the administration is trying to get everyone to spend to boost the economy and what easier way is there than hyping minor shortages? But do shipping costs reflect anything serious going on?

As you can see, according to the Baltic Dry Index, they are not at highs for the goods covered. In fact even in 2021 they were around 2010/11 levels, which aren't known for being boom times. (The trend is toward probable increases though, which are clear).

Perhaps someone knowledgeable can chime and give me a bigger picture.

View attachment 34368
If I can chime in, The Baltic Dry Index only deals the bulk shipping (dry bulk, break bulk, tankers, LNGs, etc.). In other words, mostly raw materials and energy commodities are the cargo. For more informtion about the container freight rates, a good reference is this one:


As you can see in this graphic, the trend for all containerized cargo has been up, way up from what was normal or the baseline of the last decade.

Graph_1-1024x485.png


Container shipping is another story and the freight charges have gone through the roof in comparison to previous years. Even the graphic you are showing about bulk shipping is revealing something sobering: The prices for bulk shipping (dry bulk, tankers, LNG, etc.) are beginning to soar even though in most countries demand hasn't picked up steam or even recovered to the levels of 2019, let alone the period 2006-2009. For many years, the BDI was slow, showing how manufacturing worldwide never really recovered after the crash (and therefore most economies round the globe really didn't recover), even after many years of Central Bank Counterfeiting aka stimulus. However now the rates are rising, even though the economy in most countries is still suffering from lockdowns (read they are in shambles) and confidence is not back since new lockdowns loom on the horizon for many of the main markets. This points to an imbalance, possibly caused by a disruption to the container cycle thanks to covid blockades of main container terminals and other factors https://www.researchgate.net/publication/224430243_ANALITICAL_REVIEW_OF_THE_EMPTY_CONTAINER_CYCLE.

Only time will tell if this is transitory or if something else is afoot. I wouldn't doubt on stockpiling within reasonable levels. Sorry for the rant.

PS: Of course the financial narrative (people are buying more, hence the bottlenecks) is bull*****, the main reason, at least according to some contacts in the industry are the myriad of covid related regulations in many of the main ports, thus ensuring that thousands and thousands of containers remain on idle ships, waiting to be unloaded, taken to their destination, stripped and taken to their next parade to be stuffed and start again. Right now there is a scarcity of containers. Of course the less dependant on maritime transport your Supply Chain is, the less affected you are, but hardly any country outside of China manufactures most of its devices and even they rely on electronic parts manufactured elsewhere...

But There are many reasons that are outside of my knowledge behind all this.
 
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An0dyne

Robin
Yes but he was a government authority, and all that food was to feed the entire country, not just himself or his family, unlike a typical modern prepper. How about the 40 years the Israelites traveled through the dessert? Was it foolish of them not to store food (rhetorical question: God wouldn't allow them). Christ's teachings supercede the Old Testament. Consult the New Testament about how the sparrows are fed, about worrying about tomorrow, and the parable of the barn. His overall message is very clear.

Everyone will prepare different, but it will directly correlate with their level of faith. If faith of low, prepping will become one's "faith".

The Lord Christ does not supersede the Old Testament. He is the fulfillment thereof. The true Joseph in this case. In that vein, it is certainly true that He will provide for all of our needs. But oftentimes He does this through ministers. In the Church, He uses priests to provide us with every good thing from above. In the State, He uses leaders like OT Joseph to care for His people.

That being said, all authority in the State derives principally from the martial estate. This is why the Orthodox wedding ceremony is so closely associated with the crowning. Husband and wife are king and queen of creation as co-heirs with Christ. All temporal authority derives from this spiritual reality. As Christian men and heads of household (if that is our estate—obviously, e.g., monks would have something different), it is incumbent upon us to provide for our families like faithful Joseph.

Sometimes in times of trial and necessity God will provide in a more supernatural way like with the Israelites in the wilderness. But we must take care not to expect bread from heaven as if it is some divine welfare entitlement. Sometimes we have to be shrewd. Again, completely agreed that we should not be anxious about tomorrow; God will provide and we are worth more than many sparrows! But He most often provides through earthly means.
 
If I can chime in, The Baltic Dry Index only deals the bulk shipping (dry bulk, break bulk, tankers, LNGs, etc.). In other words, mostly raw materials and energy commodities are the cargo. For more informtion about the container freight rates, a good reference is this one:

Absolutely excellent comment. You confirmed what I thought about stagnant demand and that site is very helpful.

but hardly any country outside of China manufactures most of its devices and even they rely on electronic parts manufactured elsewhere...

But There are many reasons that are outside of my knowledge behind all this.

It's a global world, baby! Most people are unaware that half their food they buy at the grocery store is actually from outside the US. China is just the sweatshop of the world but that does appear to be changing as we came close to the new decade.
 

get2choppaaa

Ostrich
If I can chime in, The Baltic Dry Index only deals the bulk shipping (dry bulk, break bulk, tankers, LNGs, etc.). In other words, mostly raw materials and energy commodities are the cargo. For more informtion about the container freight rates, a good reference is this one:


As you can see in this graphic, the trend for all containerized cargo has been up, way up from what was normal or the baseline of the last decade.

Graph_1-1024x485.png


Container shipping is another story and the freight charges have gone through the roof in comparison to previous years. Even the graphic you are showing about bulk shipping is revealing something sobering: The prices for bulk shipping (dry bulk, tankers, LNG, etc.) are beginning to soar even though in most countries demand hasn't picked up steam or even recovered to the levels of 2019, let alone the period 2006-2009. For many years, the BDI was slow, showing how manufacturing worldwide never really recovered after the crash (and therefore most economies round the globe really didn't recover), even after many years of Central Bank Counterfeiting aka stimulus. However now the rates are rising, even though the economy in most countries is still suffering from lockdowns (read they are in shambles) and confidence is not back since new lockdowns loom on the horizon for many of the main markets. This points to an imbalance, possibly caused by a disruption to the container cycle thanks to covid blockades of main container terminals and other factors https://www.researchgate.net/publication/224430243_ANALITICAL_REVIEW_OF_THE_EMPTY_CONTAINER_CYCLE.

Only time will tell if this is transitory or if something else is afoot. I wouldn't doubt on stockpiling within reasonable levels. Sorry for the rant.

PS: Of course the financial narrative (people are buying more, hence the bottlenecks) is bull*****, the main reason, at least according to some contacts in the industry are the myriad of covid related regulations in many of the main ports, thus ensuring that thousands and thousands of containers remain on idle ships, waiting to be unloaded, taken to their destination, stripped and taken to their next parade to be stuffed and start again. Right now there is a scarcity of containers. Of course the less dependant on maritime transport your Supply Chain is, the less affected you are, but hardly any country outside of China manufactures most of its devices and even they rely on electronic parts manufactured elsewhere...

But There are many reasons that are outside of my knowledge behind all this.
Excellent compilation. Completely echoes my experience with shifting from shopping 1 or 2 x 20ft or 40ft containers to now having to resort to bulk shipments. We deal in ceramics, raw materials, and inert material, most of which you can only acquire from China and India.
 

Uzisuicide

Kingfisher
Gold Member
Sometimes in times of trial and necessity God will provide in a more supernatural way like with the Israelites in the wilderness. But we must take care not to expect bread from heaven as if it is some divine welfare entitlement. Sometimes we have to be shrewd. Again, completely agreed that we should not be anxious about tomorrow; God will provide and we are worth more than many sparrows! But He most often provides through earthly means.

In obedience to God, Noah built the ark to prepare for the coming storm. God's provision for us is to give us the resources and expect us to do the work. Every once in a while he'll throw in a miracle when needed. We must protect our families from supply disruptions like these with prayer and preparedness. It's a sign that things could obviously get worse.
 

Uzisuicide

Kingfisher
Gold Member

America is a slothful nation.
There are now 50 to 70 ships anchored off Los Angeles, with delays of up to three weeks. Los Angeles’ overflow now clogs ports across the country.

Roughly 16% of all trans-Pacific ships are currently stuck at anchor, while government-owned and unionized Port of Los Angeles strolls along at 60% to 70% of capacity, closed evenings and Sundays.

The sister Port of Long Beach did implement so-called 24/7 operations several months ago—a magic wand Biden dangled for the Port of Los Angeles on Oct. 13. But in reality, “24/7” at Long Beach means only one of six terminals, and only Monday to Thursday.
 

Easy_C

Peacock
In obedience to God, Noah built the ark to prepare for the coming storm. God's provision for us is to give us the resources and expect us to do the work. Every once in a while he'll throw in a miracle when needed. We must protect our families from supply disruptions like these with prayer and preparedness. It's a sign that things could obviously get worse.

Don't prep for yourself. Prep because you will be able to help those around you rather than being a burden upon them.

I disagree with the idea of just trusting God to take care of you. Not because it won't happen but because it is better to be the one providing help than the one requiring help.
 

lskdfjldsf

Pelican
Orthodox Catechumen
Gold Member
The calculus changes with children. Being single and independent, it's easy to think you can take on the world with just the clothes on your back. While faith is important, history is full of events where people with rock-solid faith find themselves starving or facing violent death.

God has given me the financial means to prepare and take care of my family. I will keep them fed, in good health, and fend off any who would harm them.
 
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