Supply chain disruptions thread

MrFreezy

Robin
Interesting take on the trucking industry: basically black pill - its going to get worse.

My prediction is that nothing is going to change and the shipping crisis is only going to get worse. Nobody in the supply chain wants to pay to solve the problem. They literally just won’t pay to solve the problem. At the point we are at now, things are so backed up that the backups THEMSELVES are causing container companies, ports, warehouses, and trucking companies to charge massive rate increases for doing literally NOTHING. Container companies have already decreased the maximum allowable times before containers have to be back to the port, and if the congestion is so bad that you can’t get the container back into the port when it is due, the container company can charge massive late fees. The ports themselves will start charging massive storage fees for not getting containers out on time — storage charges alone can run into thousands of dollars a day. Warehouses can charge massive premiums for their services, and so can trucking companies. Chronic understaffing has led to this problem, but it is allowing these same companies to charge ten times more for regular services. Since they’re not paying the workers any more than they did last year or five years ago, the whole industry sits back and cashes in on the mess it created. In fact, the more things are backed up, the more every point of the supply chain cashes in. There is literally NO incentive to change, even if it means consumers have to do holiday shopping in July and pay triple for shipping.
 

Helmsman

Sparrow
Here's one oddity I'm noticing: The impact on consumer goods is negligible to non-existent for heartland retail stores that I've seen. Prices are going up dramatically and every so soften you see a non-core item go temporarily out of stock but it isn't the cataclysmic, ubiquitous shortages I'm seeing everyone reporting elsewhere.

There's a regional component to this which is dramatically understated and I don't understand why this would be the case.

My local Walmart is usually pretty well stocked. Visiting one a few states away and the shelves were half empty. Definitely a regional component.
 

presidentcarter

Ostrich
Gold Member
Demurrage on ocean-going vessels can easily be 10,000/hour.

All these parked ships, the owners or operators are getting smoked financially.

Is the plan for Blackrock to buy up huge chunks of the shipping industry out of insolvency?
Maersk, the largest shipping and container company in the world for the last 30 years, doesn't seem to be having any issues.

All time high stock price and guidance is positive:

"Given the strong result in Q3 2021 and the exceptional market situation still expected to continue at least until the end of the full year 2021, the full-year guidance has been revised upwards"
 

MrFreezy

Robin
My local Walmart is usually pretty well stocked. Visiting one a few states away and the shelves were half empty. Definitely a regional component.
Already a few months ago my online order for a cheap mountain bike was canceled by my local Walmart. Found it very weird - Walmart is known for being superior when it comes to logistics. Didn't send me an email and nothing. Just found out by checking my order status. Had to call service to find out item is not in stock even though it said "in stock" when I ordered it.
Went last week for some winter boots, almost empty shelfs in the men's section. Just a few pairs available and not in my size
 
Maersk, the largest shipping and container company in the world for the last 30 years, doesn't seem to be having any issues.

All time high stock price and guidance is positive:

"Given the strong result in Q3 2021 and the exceptional market situation still expected to continue at least until the end of the full year 2021, the full-year guidance has been revised upwards"
Remember we live in Clown World. If companies are hemorrhaging money then they will report record profits.

Just look at the WeWork IPO scam.
 

DeWoken

Woodpecker
Orthodox Inquirer

FarmerBrown

Pigeon
Orthodox Inquirer
An aspect of the supply chain issues that not many think of is it's affect on farmers, and therefore food production. My family runs a decent sized grain and beef cattle operation of which I am responsible for managing some aspects of, mainly grain and other crops. Today I met with a local co-op that we purchase our fertilizer from. While I had been told that the cost had went up astronomically, I wasn't really mentally prepared for what I'd see. To give a small amount of background, fertilizers are classified by how much of a particular nutrient is in it. For the sake of this post, we'll stick to the main three which are N (nitrogen), P (prosperous) and K (potassium). So for example, a common fertilizer you might see at your local Home Depot is 19-19-19. This means the fertilizer is 19% N, 19% P and 19% K. The remaining 57% is what is known as inert matter which is basically a filler.

The prices of the P and K component have went up to some degree, but for the most part are basically the same cost as last year. The nitrogen component on the other hand has gone up at an astronomical rate. Most farmers "pre-buy" our fertilizer and seed for the coming year, meaning seed and fertilizer purchased now will be used for crops in the 2022 growing season. When I pre-bought fertilizer last year, the cost of nitrogen was approximately 400 dollars a ton, this year it is nearly 800. Comparing the total cost of our fertilizer this year to last, the nitrogen component of the fertilizer for the 2022 season is roughly 90% of our entire fertilizer expenditure for the 2021 growing season.

On top of the cost aspect, we are told there will without a doubt be a shortage of Nitrogen in the coming year. Our co-op has told us, that they can't guarantee that there will be additional fertilizer available beyond what is pre-bought.

Fertilizer is not the only thing that has gone up. Seeds and all other associated inputs have increased as well, albeit it not to the extent that fertilizer has. It is also becoming difficult to get parts to keep machinery running. Long waits for parts are not uncommon. Add to this the sky rocketing cost of diesel fuel and you have a recipe for what is shaping up to be an agricultural depression. For what it is worth the cost of grain, meaning what we are paid for our crops, is at or near an all time record high. But the increases are not high enough to offset the insane increases in the cost of growing the grain. One thing the increased grain prices will do is drive up the cost of all food goods in the markets which we are already seeing. Meat and everything else will be going up even higher than it is now.

While there is a great deal of corporate farming in America, there are still a huge number of farms operated by families like mine. I believe they are trying to "fix" that problem. Maybe part of the great reset? Who knows. Pray for the farmers out there, things are going to get tough for many of us.
 

rainy

Kingfisher
I'm in the landscape installation industry and we're already being told next year's materials (trees/plants/shrubs/flowers) will decrease in supply by 30%+. That will cause prices to skyrocket.

There are also fewer truck drivers to deliver the material to our suppliers from out west. Freight has gone up in price obviously.

Our applicators are dealing with shortages for their fertilizer and pesticides. Our mason is seeing shortages with his supplies. I start holiday lighting in a couple weeks and our supplier jacked up prices 2X due to lack of availability.

Now I've got a number of employees asking for raises as the cost of living here has gone up 15-20%. Can't do it. Can't give them more with the uncertainty heading into next year.
 

presidentcarter

Ostrich
Gold Member

fireshark

Woodpecker
Orthodox Inquirer
Well, my washing machine died. I went to two appliance stores over the weekend, and they both said it is going to take several months for new washers to get here due to supply chain problems. I was thinking I’d have to go to laundromats for months (ugh) but found another place with a washer scratch and dent display model they can sell me.
This time last year you would have had a entire store full of washers that you could comparison shop, and by next year you'll have to fix it yourself or with someone's help with parts you already have or from one of the few hardware stores that might still be limping along.
 

fireshark

Woodpecker
Orthodox Inquirer
While there is a great deal of corporate farming in America, there are still a huge number of farms operated by families like mine. I believe they are trying to "fix" that problem. Maybe part of the great reset? Who knows. Pray for the farmers out there, things are going to get tough for many of us.
Definitely part of the Great Hijacking.

Every country has a slightly (or largely) different strategy being employed by the oligarchs to bring it to heel. They know a carbon-copy of the Australian style is not the best way to subdue the core 20-30% of Americans who are resistant, prepared, armed and vigilant. This sentence may sound like I'm implying America is super strong, brave, and ready to fight at a moment's notice...well, not really, but that core group are not easily subdued, and are ready for a down-and-out, drawn-out fight when they have absolutely no choice.

This whole "reset" is a messy, painful business, and the oligarchs know they have to push people to limits they haven't been pushed to before. As they like to say, "You have to break a few eggs to make an omelet." Food, money, transportation, health, education, entertainment -all of these are very effective ways to control people, and can be weaponized to achieve a faster and more comprehensive result. The endgame is total technocratic control of all of them anyway. It looks clearer by the day that food and general goods has been selected as a major feature in subduing North America. How to defeat a tough and entrenched foe? Fight him in open combat? Subdue him with violence? No, you fight by indirect means, like food as one example. But this won't be medieval style famine and pestilence, they'll make it quick and easy to come to their side and get your large plate of nice fresh food, the likes of which you haven't eaten for weeks due to your resistance to being injected and joining the "system." Those free hamburgers they offered to get vaxed seem like a worthless joke, but it may well be your soul for a hamburger soon enough if people do not pray, repent, and work together to survive this.
 

FarmerBrown

Pigeon
Orthodox Inquirer
I work for a firm that makes computer parts for farm machinery (mostly case). And we're having the same issues. Can't get the circuits.

Yeah, the electronic parts are for sure the biggest hold up. It's amazing to see older tractors from the mid to late 90's selling for so much. It's all because they don't have computers and emissions "improvements".
 

Easy_C

Peacock
Every country has a slightly (or largely) different strategy being employed by the oligarchs to bring it to heel. They know a carbon-copy of the Australian style is not the best way to subdue the core 20-30% of Americans who are resistant, prepared, armed and vigilant. This sentence may sound like I'm implying America is super strong, brave, and ready to fight at a moment's notice...well, not really, but that core group are not easily subdued, and are ready for a down-and-out, drawn-out fight when they have absolutely no choice.

I would point to Duran's comments about Chaos: The idea of artificially inducing chaos in order to accomplish political or idealogical objectives has been tried before in history numerous times. It never works out the way intended because the people who induce the Chaos can not control it.
 
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