The 2020 Stock Market Crash Thread

https://www.zerohedge.com/geopoliti...hs-apocalyptic-surge-rocks-new-york-hospitals

On CNBC, during an interview with an almost overly sympathetic Jim Cramer, Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin said that not a day goes by where he doesn't speak with Fed Chairman Jerome Powell. Mnuchin says he’s approved “every single one of” the Fed’s requests for new lending facilities. On new jobless claims report, he says "these numbers right now are not relevant".

Just in case you wondered what the Masters of the Universe thought of the struggles of the Little People, now you know.
 

Dallas Winston

Ostrich
Gold Member
jordypip23 said:
robreke said:
This bounce will likely retrace. That's the precedent set by oversold bounces of 20% + that happen after watershed crashes before.

I've been thinking another 6% or so bounce from yesterday's close that I'd start going in with (small position) shorts/puts for a short term ( 1-3 day) trade.

This rally will likely rollover soon, retrace and then we'll have back and fill as we either carve a bottom out over the next few months or, continue lower before finding a bottom.

Which trading portal is your preferred option generally speaking?

I'm a licensed investment manager so all my accounts are with my firm. If you're looking for a discount broker, Scottrade and ETrade are pretty good from what I hear.
 

Samseau

Owl
Orthodox
Gold Member
monster said:
This is crazy. 3.3 unemployed, 4x higher than history, the market was pricing in 2.5 (according to the economists) and the market gapped 2% up today.

This is government market manipulation, calling in favors, etc.

I can't believe this.

Think of it this way. Had the government released a 6 trillion dollar stimulus in a normal time, how much would it have gone up? Probably we'd see the market go up 30-40%. As of right now, it's only up 5%.

This shows you that shit is extremely bad, no way this rally will last without additional stimulus.
 

estraudi

Pelican
Gold Member
Anybody know why this bill is being passed through Congress backwards?
Why is the senate passing the CARES act and THEN sending it down to the house?
Isn't it usually in this order: House---> Senate -----> President ratifies(if needed)---> Passed?
 

Dallas Winston

Ostrich
Gold Member
I think we are in the winter of human history. A 20 year period or so that started around 2008 with the great recession. this was never really resolved. We've been waiting for the other shoe to drop, to resolve the situation, and, COVID may be that shoe. The catalyst for its ultimate resolution.

This resolution may come in the form of a Great deleveraging, as it were. The unprecedented stimulus, trilllions upon trillions, just shows to where we've come, at this point in history. It's like a last flailing attempt to keep Frankenstein lumbering forward. Helicopter money drops galore and, it appears unlimited, stimulus going forward. I think we're just seeing the beginning with this 6 trillion dollar deal (or was it 7?) It hardly matters, there's likely much more to come over the ensuing years.

We talk about how to play the stock market here and, for the deft swing trader, good money can be made short term in highly volatile markets like we have now. It's very risky though, so, unless you're really young and have time to make up for wrong calls, it maybe best just to take trades with small percentages of your accounts.

Being the winter/crisis era of history, prepare for everything financially speaking: Deflation / Inflation/ Hyperinflation/ A run on banks and/or a "bank holiday" Right now, we're in the deflation stage ( and this may be all there is and it may last a long time) Logically, it doesn't appear how we can not eventually have real inflation. Maybe really bad inflation what with the insane QE and fiscal "rescue" measures by uncle Sam.

What does that mean tactically?: Have physical cash. Have money in cash. For much younger people, you can dollar cost average into stock mutual funds. Own assets that will benefit if inflation hits big time ( land, precious metals, keep an eye on cryptocurrency and bitcoin as it may play a part at some point, etc.). Know where all your money is. We all hear the mantra "be diversified" bandied about but i believe now, at this point in history, is probably the best time to be diversified to account for any of the financial calamities that may befall us. The main idea is to survive and come out solvent and in decent financial shape, no matter what happens financially, once this crisis period that we're in, passes. It may well take another 5 to 10 years before it's all said and done.

Hopefully, like after the decades of the Great Depression and world war II, where many Americans and the world, thought that the world may be coming to an end, we came out of that period and entered a Spring in our history. A Rebirth after successfully navigating the crisis years.
 

DamienCasanova

Ostrich
Gold Member
estraudi said:
Anybody know why this bill is being passed through Congress backwards?
Why is the senate passing the CARES act and THEN sending it down to the house?
Isn't it usually in this order: House---> Senate -----> President ratifies(if needed)---> Passed?

I think it started in the House and passed to the Senate, then the Senate changed it, and sent it back to the House to approve it. I think everytime it gets sent back and forth and there's a change it has to go through another vote.
 

Roosh

Cardinal
Orthodox
A Record 3.3 Million Americans Just Filed For Unemployment Benefits

The pace at which Americans are losing their jobs is absolutely breathtaking. According to the Wall Street Journal, the largest number of new claims for unemployment benefits ever recorded in a single week prior to this year was 695,000 during the week that ended October 2nd, 1982.

So that means that what we are now witnessing is completely unprecedented, as The US Department of Labor reports a stunning increase of 3.283 million people sought initial jobless claims last week amid the virus lockdowns (almost double the expectation of a 1.7million increase).



The Bureau of Labor Statistics says that nearly every single state cited Covid-19 in its reporting.

Service industries were hit hard, but the BLS says other industries were cited: health care and social assistance, arts, entertainment and recreation, transportation and warehousing, and manufacturing.

Only three states had estimated claims.

We know that several states’ unemployment websites crashed, were running slow, or malfunctioned in recent weeks as an unprecedented number of applicants tried to file at the same time.

The states with the biggest jump in advance claims from the prior week were Pennsylvania, Ohio and New Jersey.

https://www.zerohedge.com/personal-...on-americans-just-filed-unemployment-benefits

Cheesecake Factory Refuses To Pay Rent, Cites "Tremendous Financial Blow"

It goes without saying that restaurants, bars, and the service industry have been hit hardest by the nation-wide coronavirus lockdown, but commercial real estate will be the next to feel the squeeze in the coming weeks.

Late Wednesday it was revealed that The Cheesecake Factory notified landlords at locations across the country that it doesn't plan to pay rent for the month of April after business came to a halt in the past weeks.

CEO David Overton said the chain has been dealt a "tremendous financial blow" from the pandemic, and that neither the Cheesecake Factory nor any of its "affiliated restaurant concepts," including RockSugar and North Italia, will be writing a check on April 1.

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/c...s-financial-blow-say-it-wont-pay-rent-april-1
 

SlickyBoy

Hummingbird
robreke said:
What does that mean tactically?: Have physical cash. Have money in cash. For much younger people, you can dollar cost average into stock mutual funds. Own assets that will benefit if inflation hits big time ( land, precious metals, keep an eye on cryptocurrency and bitcoin as it may play a part at some point, etc.). Know where all your money is.

If hyperinflation hits, forget your cash. You can also expect capital controls to follow almost immediately. That means anything involving an intermediary - like an IRA, a 401k or even a stock mutual fund - you no longer have any control over.

Physical cash of the hyperinflated currency will become worthless faster than things ostensibly protected can keep up, such as TIPS (Treasury Inflation Protected Securities). Cryptocurrencies are not immune to capital controls either - there will be no legal "damn the man" way to trade them once the government gets involved, as they will be in that scenario.

Hard, truly useful assets that you bought before the crash as well as non-hyperinflated currency of other nations that did not hit the print switch will be worth something. Trouble is the non-inflated currency will also become illegal to possess and confiscated the moment the government finds out you have any of it. This is exactly what happened in 1920s Austria, but did not happen in neighboring countries. What they can't do is take your overseas bank account full of foreign cash. I'm not talking about tax dodging, just a legal stash of money in a banking system legitimately beyond the reach of Uncle Sam. You have to report the existence of the account, but no, they can't force you to surrender it and you retain control over your cash in a non-inflated currency.

I keep harping about this book, but the guy's done his research on the subject of hyperinflation and depression.



And RE: the Cheesecake Factory. That chain is emblematic of the excess of our nutty consumerist economy - essentially the cruise ship line of the restaurant world. It sucks for people who made a living working there, but it also sucks that's the expected role of the population - succumb to gluttony and spend everything you earn or the whole ship sinks.
 
Cheesecake Factory Refuses To Pay Rent, Cites "Tremendous Financial Blow"

The most obese Americans love places like Cheesecake Factory. With so many of them having blood pressure issues and other comorbidities, a not-insignificant portion of their customer base is at serious risk of dying in this pandemic. Even if they were able to open again in a few months and operate at full capacity, the demand side won't be there due to massive unemployment/lack of disposable income and deaths of their overweight/unhealthy customers. Along with major banks, I can't think of a worse stock to own right now than sit-down chain restaurants. Maybe REITs focusing on malls? All of them are in the pits in this environment.

@SlickyBoy: The only way to hedge against hyperinflation is to start buying actual physical goods. Metals, guns, ammo, food, real estate, etc. The challenge for many younger investors is that these goods are useful in case of an emergency, but rarely appreciate so meaningfully that they can become a vehicle of investment for growth. There aren't many good options out there, especially for younger investors that need to still build the wealth accumulation phase of their journey.
 

Rush87

Hummingbird
I'd like to get thoughts on low cost of entry mining stocks. Covid is going to cost nations billions. To stem the bleed, many insider politicians believe there will be a temporary halt to the green agenda where many mining companies will be greenlit for exploration.

This could mean some big discoveries for companies who had otherwise remained stagnant for years. Does anyone have any information on potential stocks within' this industry to look out for?​
 

Koolking

Sparrow
Some guy I know who's pretty genius about reading legislation and decoding it is having a real problem figuring out how our, what I call "TrumpBux" are going to be paid out or whether we'll get them at all.

I suspect that many folks already have it in their minds that $1200 is coming to them any moment. What if it doesn't?
 

Caractacus Potts

Woodpecker
Gold Member
Rush87 said:
I'd like to get thoughts on low cost of entry mining stocks. Covid is going to cost nations billions. To stem the bleed, many insider politicians believe there will be a temporary halt to the green agenda where many mining companies will be greenlit for exploration.

This could mean some big discoveries for companies who had otherwise remained stagnant for years. Does anyone have any information on potential stocks within' this industry to look out for?​

I am just some guy posting on the internet so take this with a lot of salt...

I bought shares of a junior silver miner on the recommendation of someone involved in the industry. Oroco Resources ticker symbol ORRCF. I paid .19 per share. This is the first penny stock I have ever bought in my life. Due with this information as you wish.

CP
 

SlickyBoy

Hummingbird
John Michael Kane said:
@SlickyBoy: The only way to hedge against hyperinflation is to start buying actual physical goods. Metals, guns, ammo, food, real estate, etc. The challenge for many younger investors is that these goods are useful in case of an emergency, but rarely appreciate so meaningfully that they can become a vehicle of investment for growth. There aren't many good options out there, especially for younger investors that need to still build the wealth accumulation phase of their journey.

I agree about the physical assets part, but disagree about it being the only way to hedge. As I pointed out, 1920s Austria was a hyperinflationary environment, yet at the same time England and France were not. Tourists from there could travel and live like kings in Austria since their currency was denominated in pounds and francs, respectively.

The nearest example I witnessed personally was the IMF crisis of the late 1990s. While it wasn't hyperinflationary, it was an example where some currencies were instantly better than others. Many Asian currencies including the Korean won lost significant amounts of their value overnight, but US soldiers stationed in Korea didn't feel a pinch. In fact, as they were still being pad in dollars, their money was instantly worth about twice as much when they went to the clubs, shops and restaurants off post. It was a good time for us.

If the US dollar hyperinflates, it would be good to have currencies in places where the government does not do likewise and hyperinflate, and kept in a place where the US has no legal access to the money. That's all I'm saying.

It is still possible to buy foreign currencies in smaller amounts via services like Travelex, but you run the risk of confiscation if caught in the US with a few thousand CHF, etc. once the hyperinflation hits the fan.
 

kurtybro

Woodpecker
Samseau said:
monster said:
This is crazy. 3.3 unemployed, 4x higher than history, the market was pricing in 2.5 (according to the economists) and the market gapped 2% up today.

This is government market manipulation, calling in favors, etc.

I can't believe this.

Think of it this way. Had the government released a 6 trillion dollar stimulus in a normal time, how much would it have gone up? Probably we'd see the market go up 30-40%. As of right now, it's only up 5%.

This shows you that shit is extremely bad, no way this rally will last without additional stimulus.


Didn't they say they're willing to do unlimited printing?
 

SlickyBoy

Hummingbird
Rush87 said:
I'd like to get thoughts on low cost of entry mining stocks. Covid is going to cost nations billions. To stem the bleed, many insider politicians believe there will be a temporary halt to the green agenda where many mining companies will be greenlit for exploration.

This could mean some big discoveries for companies who had otherwise remained stagnant for years. Does anyone have any information on potential stocks within' this industry to look out for?​

If you're interested in something like that, have a look at the miners covered in something like USAGX or VGPMX (both are precious metals funds). Mining stocks are not the same as buying actual precious metals. The one plus I can think of for them is that fuel costs are so low, mining operations overhead must have decreased dramatically. I still think it's way too much of a gamble to go anywhere near any of that - both are moving sideways and have been in spite of the news - but to each his own.

While I agree people aren't going to be itching to buy solar panels or get on the next Tesla waiting list, that does not translate into immediate sweeping away of regulations - at least not yet.
 

reliquary

Woodpecker
John Michael Kane said:
Cheesecake Factory Refuses To Pay Rent, Cites "Tremendous Financial Blow"

The most obese Americans love places like Cheesecake Factory. With so many of them having blood pressure issues and other comorbidities, a not-insignificant portion of their customer base is at serious risk of dying in this pandemic. Even if they were able to open again in a few months and operate at full capacity, the demand side won't be there due to massive unemployment/lack of disposable income and deaths of their overweight/unhealthy customers. Along with major banks, I can't think of a worse stock to own right now than sit-down chain restaurants. Maybe REITs focusing on malls? All of them are in the pits in this environment.

@SlickyBoy: The only way to hedge against hyperinflation is to start buying actual physical goods. Metals, guns, ammo, food, real estate, etc. The challenge for many younger investors is that these goods are useful in case of an emergency, but rarely appreciate so meaningfully that they can become a vehicle of investment for growth. There aren't many good options out there, especially for younger investors that need to still build the wealth accumulation phase of their journey.

@JMK this is precisely the bizarro Jekyll and Hyde game I find myself caught in. I'm in my mid-20s, just a few years out from undergrad still, thankfully with NO DEBT and no credit obligations.

All in cash at the moment as mentioned upthread, and withdrawing it to bank account minimums in the event greater panic causes a run. (~$1,800 between checking and savings generally)

But what do I do with it? As has been discussed many times on this board, real estate is not nearly within my grasp yet, for the down payment, much less any property taxes, insurance, HOA, etc.

It wouldn't be hard to spend it all on tactical gear, ammo, firearms, and food while paper fiat currency has some semblance of value still. Then when we reach Zimbabwe I can wipe my ass with dollars and trade TP squares for heads of cattle.

There is no right answer to this, at least not one that's materialized yet. I suppose having as much of my net worth on hand in 'hard currency' is the best middle ground to pivot one way or the other depending on the way the wind is blowing.
 
SlickyBoy said:
John Michael Kane said:
@SlickyBoy: The only way to hedge against hyperinflation is to start buying actual physical goods. Metals, guns, ammo, food, real estate, etc. The challenge for many younger investors is that these goods are useful in case of an emergency, but rarely appreciate so meaningfully that they can become a vehicle of investment for growth. There aren't many good options out there, especially for younger investors that need to still build the wealth accumulation phase of their journey.

I agree about the physical assets part, but disagree about it being the only way to hedge. As I pointed out, 1920s Austria was a hyperinflationary environment, yet at the same time England and France were not. Tourists from there could travel and live like kings in Austria since their currency was denominated in pounds and francs, respectively.

The nearest example I witnessed personally was the IMF crisis of the late 1990s. While it wasn't hyperinflationary, it was an example where some currencies were instantly better than others. Many Asian currencies including the Korean won lost significant amounts of their value overnight, but US soldiers stationed in Korea didn't feel a pinch. In fact, as they were still being pad in dollars, their money was instantly worth about twice as much when they went to the clubs, shops and restaurants off post. It was a good time for us.

If the US dollar hyperinflates, it would be good to have currencies in places where the government does not do likewise and hyperinflate, and kept in a place where the US has no legal access to the money. That's all I'm saying.

It is still possible to buy foreign currencies in smaller amounts via services like Travelex, but you run the risk of confiscation if caught in the US with a few thousand CHF, etc. once the hyperinflation hits the fan.

I stand corrected. You're right, it isn't the only way to buy goods directly. Still, looking around the world, most major economies hold tons of U.S. Dollar debt. Even if their own GDP to debt ratios are better than ours, there's no absolute guarantee that a US Dollar collapse wouldn't have serious repercussions on their own currencies. Yes, you can hedge somewhat using this method, but I'd rather actually have tangible assets if you feel the crash is right over the horizon. It is anyone's guess as to how long the monkey printing show continues.

swuglyfe said:
John Michael Kane said:
Cheesecake Factory Refuses To Pay Rent, Cites "Tremendous Financial Blow"

The most obese Americans love places like Cheesecake Factory. With so many of them having blood pressure issues and other comorbidities, a not-insignificant portion of their customer base is at serious risk of dying in this pandemic. Even if they were able to open again in a few months and operate at full capacity, the demand side won't be there due to massive unemployment/lack of disposable income and deaths of their overweight/unhealthy customers. Along with major banks, I can't think of a worse stock to own right now than sit-down chain restaurants. Maybe REITs focusing on malls? All of them are in the pits in this environment.

@SlickyBoy: The only way to hedge against hyperinflation is to start buying actual physical goods. Metals, guns, ammo, food, real estate, etc. The challenge for many younger investors is that these goods are useful in case of an emergency, but rarely appreciate so meaningfully that they can become a vehicle of investment for growth. There aren't many good options out there, especially for younger investors that need to still build the wealth accumulation phase of their journey.

@JMK this is precisely the bizarro Jekyll and Hyde game I find myself caught in. I'm in my mid-20s, just a few years out from undergrad still, thankfully with NO DEBT and no credit obligations.

All in cash at the moment as mentioned upthread, and withdrawing it to bank account minimums in the event greater panic causes a run. (~$1,800 between checking and savings generally)

But what do I do with it? As has been discussed many times on this board, real estate is not nearly within my grasp yet, for the down payment, much less any property taxes, insurance, HOA, etc.

It wouldn't be hard to spend it all on tactical gear, ammo, firearms, and food while paper fiat currency has some semblance of value still. Then when we reach Zimbabwe I can wipe my ass with dollars and trade TP squares for heads of cattle.

There is no right answer to this, at least not one that's materialized yet. I suppose having as much of my net worth on hand in 'hard currency' is the best middle ground to pivot one way or the other depending on the way the wind is blowing.

This may sound counterintuitive, but you need some debt. If your credit is good enough, try applying for a 0% interest credit card that you can put your NECESSARY monthly expenses on. There's a link in my sig on how to build up your credit if you need help. Hanging on to extra cash and putting even a small portion of it into gold or silver is one way to get some exposure to protect against the worst kind of inflation. You can also slowly start to build up food stores. If you don't have much income right now, what expenses can you cut? Can you move back in with family? Can you get more roommates? Cancel services like Netflix? Make sure you save up/invest enough that when your 0% interest card is due, you can pay it off in full. If the poop hits the fan before your 0% expires, it will have been better to have food and other essentials and have meaningless debt if we hit a true reset. It is actually riskier to have too little debt than to have no debt in a zero-interest-rate environment where savings accounts are actually negative when you factor in inflation. You just have to balance it with your income.
 

Foolsgo1d

Peacock
Those jobless claims are not the total number. Many have yet to sign up and the system is overloaded due to the sheer scale. Under 4 million is a low-ball figure.
 

Coja Petrus Uscan

Hummingbird
Orthodox Inquirer
Gold Member
John Michael Kane said:
Cheesecake Factory Refuses To Pay Rent, Cites "Tremendous Financial Blow"

The most obese Americans love places like Cheesecake Factory.

Screenshot-at-2020-03-26-19-11-59.png


All over the world the sewage system is under strain from toilet roll substitutes being flushed down them. Dante's inferno awaits.

swuglyfe said:
I suppose having as much of my net worth on hand in 'hard currency'

It's what I'm going with. In terms of prepping your pretty good with food and water.

With a downwards trajectory a bit steeper than 2008 I think it's looking like this, bottoming in mid 2021. The wildcard is the amount of stimulus they may try.

Screenshot-at-2020-03-26-19-24-45.png
 

kamoz

Kingfisher
Gold Member
With hyperinflation (and maybe bank bail-ins) being a threat, would it be a good idea to liquidate one's cash into physical assets - like a house? A big gamble at this point that I probably wouldn't do, but would like to get your thoughts on. Of course that can get confiscated too. An offshore account in a different currency is just something that's not realistic for most average Joes here, unless someone here knows something that I don't.
 
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