Silver price for July 13, 2020:
Gold price for July 13, 2020:
Gold price for July 13, 2020:
This review was quite informative... Special thanks to Tail Gunner for the StockGumshoe site.I always turn to the Stock Gumshoe:
Paying down your house is always a safe bet, and not having to have that mortgage payment in the future economy could be a big help. Consider what your interest rate is, and how much you would save in interest over the next few years.What are people's thought's about withdrawling part of one's 401-K at this time of economic crisis this summer to payoff one's house? My house is in a very desirable rural (wooded/no neighbors) yet only a 15 min. drive from all of the suburban amenities. so its a very desirable spot and I cant envision it is in a high risk area for a big drop in value. I currently only have about 3 years worth of my current income levels stashed in 401K however so my retirement might not be traveling the world but basket bingos and Sr. coffee at McD's instead. I have 8 years to go to payoff my house. I have ~17-23 years I'm estimating to still have to work before retiring (depending on where my 401-K is at).
If I pay off the house now I was considering drastically increase % from paychecks into 401-K to try and recover before I got used to any surplus of income that would be squandered away in consumables (so I'd but probably would put it mostly into bonds/cash until the next big drop in market comes along)
I think that 33% in annualised. Maybe @Deepdiver knows. So for 2020 so far that is about 10% decline in total; and you have to remember the government has borrowed about 15% of GDP for stimulus.The Stock Market seems in a really erratic place right now, and I would think riskier than real estate in terms of securing your capital. We've had a good bounce back, but with the 33% decline in GDP shown above, how long can it hold out I don't know.
I don't know about US retirement funds, but as per the GDP number above, we are looking at a double recession, or depression. The 2008 crash took about 7% off GDP. This time we are looking at 15%. I saw economists predicting roughly that figure earlier in the year.What are people's thought's about withdrawling part of one's 401-K at this time of economic crisis this summer to payoff one's house?
The caveat to this is it is likely The Fed and other central banks are going to start buying stocks to prop them up. Japan has been doing this for about ten years and their central bank now owns 8% of equities and half of government debt. The UK central bank also holds a large amount of UK gilts. I assume The Fed already has a hand in that pie.
We mostly agree (especially about the coming meltdown) but I'll add one more piece of information. Japan has been buying their stock market for... more than a decade now? Look at the price. They can't even get it back to all time highs with all that buying. I don't have any faith in the govt or Fed to keep it going, not in global depression.Personally, I am losing interest in developed markets because we are looking at so much manipulation holding prices way above where the market would set them.
That is one of my worries too. You could buy into the S&P, or whatever at a big discount and wait for 10-20 year and never see it come back. I don't think it will happen, but it is a considerable possibility. I think the difference is that The US is still going to be the center of global inovation for the foreseeable future. Japan didn't manage to get a strong enough foothold in that position, since like other Asians they mainly just reproduce Western innovation more efficiently.We mostly agree (especially about the coming meltdown) but I'll add one more piece of information. Japan has been buying their stock market for... more than a decade now? Look at the price. They can't even get it back to all time highs with all that buying. I don't have any faith in the govt or Fed to keep it going, not in global depression.
However, like yourself, I've lost interest in our market. I made a good sum in March and am waiting on the sidelines for other investment opportunities.
Step 1 is just a quck/safe fix to buy a little more time to make a decision on paying off the house. So my 30% penalty for withdrawl would be loss of ~$65KAssuming you do step 1, then step 2 is a terrible idea. 3.5 is an extremely low rate, why would you take a 30% withdraw penalty to avoid a 3.5% interest rate? Seriously, just do the math on this one.
Very good points. I think I'm leaning the way you are thinking (just moving from stocks to cash and not paying off the house with the -$44k penalty).There is no need to take a permanent penalty until necessary, especially if the funds are already cash. You may need that 44k later in life. Wait till an event actually happens, and there may be better options like an emergency withdraw or 401k loan that are better than a straight withdraw and 30% penalty.
Yep. Just read the last few months. You would’ve thought stocks would be floor level right now, and whoever followed the board’s general advice would have a lot less to show for it.There is way too much fear mongering in some of these recent posts. Yes the market may (or may not) decline in the next few months but there's no need to touch your tax advantaged accounts unless there's a drastic circumstance that warrants such a move.
Bubs, if you actually have a 3.5% fixed rate mortage, that is very attractive long term rate and you should NOT pay off the principal if you can find a solid income stream to support the mortgage payment. Obviously desperate times will warrant different circumstances but most people just don't pay their mortgage if it comes to that (worst case) or they negotiate with the lender and figure out a plan. Taking out money from your savings is a poor idea unless there's no other option.