The 2020 Stock Market Crash Thread

EndlessGravity

Kingfisher
There is way too much fear mongering in some of these recent posts. Yes the market may (or may not) decline in the next few months but there's no need to touch your tax advantaged accounts unless there's a drastic circumstance that warrants such a move.
Yep. Just read the last few months. You would’ve thought stocks would be floor level right now, and whoever followed the board’s general advice would have a lot less to show for it.

Go take a look at the yield curve and how many emergency programs the Fed is doing. Then let me know if you think the global dollar shortage is over yet or not.
 

bubs

Sparrow
Agree with most all the points made. I do think now that we are in early Aug. with election coming (maybe) in Nov. and inevitable econmic issues on the horizon, it may be at least good idea to shift more of my my 401k from high risk to low risk (currently I’m 75% in stocks And 25% in cash/bonds) and perhaps just miss some of the potential profits from market gains over next few months but protect against any huge losses which seem highly probable based on a lot of input coming in (hopefully all of the You Tube and internet reading Ive been exposed to isn’t just echo chamber).
 

gework

Ostrich
Gold Member
@LoveBug + @Jestx - What is your reasoning that markets are in better shape than what people have tended to share in these threads?

If it wasn't for The Fed and government markets would certainly be down to much lower level, but probably not yet genuinely overbought.

It takes about 18 months for a recession to play out. But that has been negated by the government taking on what will be about 30% of GDP as debt by the end of the year. The doom and gloom of this thread will be realised sooner or later though.
 

Caractacus Potts

Woodpecker
Gold Member
I am just some guy posting on the internet so take this with a lot of salt...

I bought shares of a junior silver miner on the recommendation of someone involved in the industry. Oroco Resources ticker symbol ORRCF. I paid .19 per share. This is the first penny stock I have ever bought in my life. Due with this information as you wish.

CP

Closed Friday at .51!! My friend thinks this will be bought out by one of the majors in the next few years. His target price is between $5-$10. I hope so! Fingers crossed.
 

Dr. Howard

Peacock
Gold Member
I'm thinking step 1: Move all my 401-k funds out of stocks/mutual funds and into money market/bonds. Right now, I'm 25% cash/ 75% stocks, so basically I'm moving over remaining 75% of the portfolio into cash/bonds. This should protect me from the next big market drop (assuming the market doesn't crash on Monday 3rd of August when I plan to do my moves).

Step 2 (take 30% penalty/loss on early withdrawl and payoff house), I should have a little more time to consider the best options prior to this action. My house is on a 3.5% fixed rate, and will be paid off in 8 years (from a 15year fixed rate loan). So right now, I'm getting more heavy into principal than paying interest each month.

DO IT THIS YEAR. There is no additional tax penalty on the first $100k as part of the CARES act. https://www.fool.com/retirement/2020/04/03/you-can-now-withdraw-up-to-100000-from-your-retire.aspx

you won't get another chance for that tax break.
 

kel

Pelican
DO IT THIS YEAR. There is no additional tax penalty on the first $100k as part of the CARES act. https://www.fool.com/retirement/2020/04/03/you-can-now-withdraw-up-to-100000-from-your-retire.aspx

Wow, very good information, thanks for sharing. TLDR with important parts highlighted:

Previously, if you wanted to withdraw cash from your 401(k) or traditional IRA before age 59 and a half, you'd face income taxes and a 10% penalty on the amount you withdraw. Under the CARES Act, though, you can withdraw up to $100,000 from your retirement account without paying the 10% penalty. Depending on how much you withdraw, this could potentially save you thousands of dollars.
You'll still need to pay income taxes on your withdrawals, but another change under the new bill is that you now have three years to pay those taxes. If you're making significant withdrawals, being able to spread your tax payments over three years can ease the financial burden.

Keep in mind, though, that these new rules only apply if you're using the money for coronavirus-related expenses. To qualify for penalty-free retirement fund distributions, either you, your spouse, or a dependent must have tested positive for COVID-19, or you must have experienced financial hardship due to being laid off, furloughed, or quarantined.

I'd imagine "financial hardship due to being quarantined" is something vague enough that you can talk anything into fitting that, assuming it's investigated at all, but something to consider.

Several years in a row I maxed my contribution to a traditional IRA to lower my tax bill, but I stopped the past few years because I've been worried about eventual government seizure of such assets (overt or in a shell-game fashion). I wonder if I should withdraw it now. I'm in a higher tax bracket than I was when I first made the deposits and presumably a higher tax bracket than when I "retire" (lol), but if I really do believe that serious economic and social turbulence is coming, $n-40% > $0.
 

gework

Ostrich
Gold Member
Stocks are following a trend-line as if the '08 crash never happened, which would have been a 20 year bull.




Half the threads on this board could be moved to clown world.

 

NoMoreTO

Ostrich
49 pages in and the 2020 Stock Market Crash is almost fully recovered.

But somehow lately I feel fear in the air. Make sure you have lots of cash to buy, maybe in November when Trump wins and the country is stable.

It's a general rule to sell before elections and buy after. Almost always a winner.

Either way, things feel bloated right now. We know the 2nd lockdown is coming, and the markets will feel this one if they didn't feel the last one.

... and it feels like we're still somehow up since June (below)

2020_Stocks.jpeg
 

NoMoreTO

Ostrich
We've hit some definite headwinds. Anyone else planning on selling and rebuying later? I'm planning on selling half my positions which are gold and silver.

I'm planning to sell half my positions October 1, then perhaps rebuy. There is lots evidence we will see some turbulence in the form of civil unrest/ lockdowns going into the election, and perhaps beyond.

The below video advocates that there will a 25 - 40% correction, and an opportunity to buy back in. Gold and silver would also take a serious hit along with an equity crash as investors cover margin calls.

The only place to be in during a crash is cash
There is an airline whose price is higher than last november!

He is a believer in inflation and hedging against it generally, but is seeing serious headwinds in the coming while.

 

louisjxn

Newbie
Everyone is talking about bubbles and a looming crash these days, which makes me think a real crash is still a ways away. Sure there will be run of the mill corrections over the next few months and in 2021, but I think the market is likely to hit new all time highs before it crashes anything like 2000 or 2008.
 

Caractacus Potts

Woodpecker
Gold Member
I am just some guy posting on the internet so take this with a lot of salt...

I bought shares of a junior silver miner on the recommendation of someone involved in the industry. Oroco Resources ticker symbol ORRCF. I paid .19 per share. This is the first penny stock I have ever bought in my life. Due with this information as you wish.

CP
ORRCF closed today at a 52 week high of 1.1969!!!
I am just some guy posting on the internet so take this with a lot of salt...

I bought shares of a junior silver miner on the recommendation of someone involved in the industry. Oroco Resources ticker symbol ORRCF. I paid .19 per share. This is the first penny stock I have ever bought in my life. Due with this information as you wish.

CP
ORRCF closed today at a 52 week high of 1.1969!!!
 

Pendleton

Kingfisher
We've hit some definite headwinds. Anyone else planning on selling and rebuying later? I'm planning on selling half my positions which are gold and silver.

I'm planning to sell half my positions October 1, then perhaps rebuy. There is lots evidence we will see some turbulence in the form of civil unrest/ lockdowns going into the election, and perhaps beyond.
I sold off my gold miners a few weeks before the election and have been slowly buying back in. The people who bought gold as COVID insurance seem to have sold off but I am more interested in gold as a play on a devalued dollar so I am interested in buying back in at these prices. I expect the printing presses to be operating at full speed regardless of whether Trump or Biden is in the White House. And if Biden gets in and the Dems steal the GA Senate seats, I think they will be crushing the real economy while borrowing, spending and printing like crazy.
 
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