EndlessGravity
Pelican
Go take a look at the yield curve and how many emergency programs the Fed is doing. Then let me know if you think the global dollar shortage is over yet or not.
The 2020 Stock Market Crash Thread
- Thread starter Hansel
- Start date
Go take a look at the yield curve and how many emergency programs the Fed is doing. Then let me know if you think the global dollar shortage is over yet or not.
Agree with most all the points made. I do think now that we are in early Aug. with election coming (maybe) in Nov. and inevitable econmic issues on the horizon, it may be at least good idea to shift more of my my 401k from high risk to low risk (currently I’m 75% in stocks And 25% in cash/bonds) and perhaps just miss some of the potential profits from market gains over next few months but protect against any huge losses which seem highly probable based on a lot of input coming in (hopefully all of the You Tube and internet reading Ive been exposed to isn’t just echo chamber).
@LoveBug + @Jestx - What is your reasoning that markets are in better shape than what people have tended to share in these threads?
If it wasn't for The Fed and government markets would certainly be down to much lower level, but probably not yet genuinely overbought.
It takes about 18 months for a recession to play out. But that has been negated by the government taking on what will be about 30% of GDP as debt by the end of the year. The doom and gloom of this thread will be realised sooner or later though.
If it wasn't for The Fed and government markets would certainly be down to much lower level, but probably not yet genuinely overbought.
It takes about 18 months for a recession to play out. But that has been negated by the government taking on what will be about 30% of GDP as debt by the end of the year. The doom and gloom of this thread will be realised sooner or later though.
Closed Friday at .51!! My friend thinks this will be bought out by one of the majors in the next few years. His target price is between $5-$10. I hope so! Fingers crossed.
DO IT THIS YEAR. There is no additional tax penalty on the first $100k as part of the CARES act. https://www.fool.com/retirement/2020/04/03/you-can-now-withdraw-up-to-100000-from-your-retire.aspx
you won't get another chance for that tax break.
kel
Ostrich
Wow, very good information, thanks for sharing. TLDR with important parts highlighted:
I'd imagine "financial hardship due to being quarantined" is something vague enough that you can talk anything into fitting that, assuming it's investigated at all, but something to consider.
Several years in a row I maxed my contribution to a traditional IRA to lower my tax bill, but I stopped the past few years because I've been worried about eventual government seizure of such assets (overt or in a shell-game fashion). I wonder if I should withdraw it now. I'm in a higher tax bracket than I was when I first made the deposits and presumably a higher tax bracket than when I "retire" (lol), but if I really do believe that serious economic and social turbulence is coming, $n-40% > $0.
Stocks are following a trend-line as if the '08 crash never happened, which would have been a 20 year bull.
Half the threads on this board could be moved to clown world.
Half the threads on this board could be moved to clown world.
NoMoreTO
Ostrich
49 pages in and the 2020 Stock Market Crash is almost fully recovered.
But somehow lately I feel fear in the air. Make sure you have lots of cash to buy, maybe in November when Trump wins and the country is stable.
It's a general rule to sell before elections and buy after. Almost always a winner.
Either way, things feel bloated right now. We know the 2nd lockdown is coming, and the markets will feel this one if they didn't feel the last one.
... and it feels like we're still somehow up since June (below)
But somehow lately I feel fear in the air. Make sure you have lots of cash to buy, maybe in November when Trump wins and the country is stable.
It's a general rule to sell before elections and buy after. Almost always a winner.
Either way, things feel bloated right now. We know the 2nd lockdown is coming, and the markets will feel this one if they didn't feel the last one.
... and it feels like we're still somehow up since June (below)
NoMoreTO
Ostrich
We've hit some definite headwinds. Anyone else planning on selling and rebuying later? I'm planning on selling half my positions which are gold and silver.
I'm planning to sell half my positions October 1, then perhaps rebuy. There is lots evidence we will see some turbulence in the form of civil unrest/ lockdowns going into the election, and perhaps beyond.
The below video advocates that there will a 25 - 40% correction, and an opportunity to buy back in. Gold and silver would also take a serious hit along with an equity crash as investors cover margin calls.
He is a believer in inflation and hedging against it generally, but is seeing serious headwinds in the coming while.
I'm planning to sell half my positions October 1, then perhaps rebuy. There is lots evidence we will see some turbulence in the form of civil unrest/ lockdowns going into the election, and perhaps beyond.
The below video advocates that there will a 25 - 40% correction, and an opportunity to buy back in. Gold and silver would also take a serious hit along with an equity crash as investors cover margin calls.
He is a believer in inflation and hedging against it generally, but is seeing serious headwinds in the coming while.
Everyone is talking about bubbles and a looming crash these days, which makes me think a real crash is still a ways away. Sure there will be run of the mill corrections over the next few months and in 2021, but I think the market is likely to hit new all time highs before it crashes anything like 2000 or 2008.
I sold off my gold miners a few weeks before the election and have been slowly buying back in. The people who bought gold as COVID insurance seem to have sold off but I am more interested in gold as a play on a devalued dollar so I am interested in buying back in at these prices. I expect the printing presses to be operating at full speed regardless of whether Trump or Biden is in the White House. And if Biden gets in and the Dems steal the GA Senate seats, I think they will be crushing the real economy while borrowing, spending and printing like crazy.
typtre
Robin
I am in this aswell, but under the ticker OCO on TSX. I have been waiting on a pullback to buy more but it looks like it'll never happen.
But it's not a silver stock, it's a copper stock.
SlickyBoy
Hummingbird
People like that made a lot of money on scare tactics ten years ago. I'm not saying there's not things to be concerned about, but watch out for more grifters - they popped up telling us to buy gold because the dollar is screwed, but then asked to be paid in dollars. Okay...
Troller
Pelican
'Big Short' investor Michael Burry reveals he's short Tesla, tells Elon Musk to issue more stock at its 'ridiculous price'
Jim Spellman / Getty Images Michael Burry, whose bet against the housing market was made famous by 'The Big Short,' revealed in a late-Tuesday...
markets.businessinsider.com
But the USD did hit a new 52 week low today and is closing in on 3 year lows. I agree the strong gold/weak dollar camp is filled with grifters, cranks and one trick ponies who have been saying the same thing for 20 years. But it doesn't mean they won't eventually be right. I tend to think it is a more legitimate, far less speculative strategy following the implosion earlier in the year compared to the previous 4-5 years.
NoMoreTO
Ostrich
The recent move in Bitcoin to new highs makes me more bullish on gold and silver which have came back a fair bit to around June levels.
People are wondering about the dollar and seeking other safe havens, or simply to diversify their "money" holdings. We have Political Risk, Economic Risk, Sociological Risk, and Technological Risk right now. Straight out of the old PEST analysis from business school.
People are wondering about the dollar and seeking other safe havens, or simply to diversify their "money" holdings. We have Political Risk, Economic Risk, Sociological Risk, and Technological Risk right now. Straight out of the old PEST analysis from business school.